A look at the 2015 Patriots Draft Positioning

[ctpatsfan77]

No matter the outcome this coming weekend, i think we won't pick lower than 30..

Unless NE and SEA both lose, in which case NE gets 29.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

With that said, if Doughty out in Western Kentucky comes close to his performance of last year he'll be high on my list for next year. You just can't replace Brady right now, he carried this team Sat. He got stronger as the game went along.

Doughty was a redshirt senior this year.

 

[I.M. Fletcher]

If I were targeting a team to trade out of the first round with, I would obviously look for teams that I thought over performed, or look to be taking a step back next season. Detroit and Dallas would be my two obvious picks, with Denver being a little unknown at this point.

 

[Miguel]

I'm pretty sure that IF Revis is released before March 10th he will not count in the 2016 comp pick calculations. Only players whose contracts expire at the end of the 2014 season are eligible.

After some research I am not as confident. I have to do further research.

 

[OhExaulted1]

Doughty was a redshirt senior this year.

Yeah. So few guys have been granted a 6th year I can't name any off the top of my head without researching it. I didn't see it initially from this link but I remember spotting it through here somewhere:

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/ncaaf...doughty-given-6th-year-by-ncaa-174540713.html

 

[ctpatsfan77]

After some research I am not as confident. I have to do further research.

Miguel:

My understanding, based on Stallworth, is that a player who reaches FA as a result of a declined option does count.

 

[OhExaulted1]

Miguel:

My understanding, based on Stallworth, is that a player who reaches FA as a result of a declined option does count.

I seem to remember other instances of that as well. I'll dig deeper. Truth be told I would way rather retain Revis than get #97 in 2016.

 

[OhExaulted1]

TRADED DRAFT PICKS
2015

First round

Cleveland has a #1 pick from Buffalo (2014 draft day trade)

Fourth round

San Francisco has a #4 from Denver (2014 draft trade)
Buffalo has a conditional #4 from San Francisco (WR Stevie Johnson; could escalate to a #3)
Philadelphia has a conditional #4 from Buffalo (RB Bryce Brown)
Cleveland has a #4 from Buffalo (2014 draft trade)
New England has a #4 from Tampa Bay (OG Logan Mankins)
Tampa Bay has a #4 from St. Louis (FS Mark Barron)

Fifth round

Tampa Bay has a #5 pick from Baltimore (C/G Jeremy Zuttah)
Denver has a #5 from Chicago (2014 draft day trade)
Buffalo has a #5 from Tampa Bay (2014 draft trade)
Tampa Bay has a #5 from New England (LB Jonathan Casillas)

Sixth round

Cleveland a #6 pick from Baltimore (2014 draft trade)
Baltimore as a #7 from Dallas (LB Rolando McClain)
Indianapolis has a #6 from Seattle (CB Marcus Burney)
Seattle has a conditional #6 from the Jets (WR Percy Harvin/could escalate to a #4 – roster status)
Tennessee has a #6 from New England (OLB Akeem Ayers)
Tampa Bay has a #6 from St. Louis (FS Mark Barron)
New England has a #6 from Tampa Bay (LB Jonathan Casillas)

Seventh round

Dallas has a #7 pick from San Diego (DT Sean Lissemore)
San Francisco has a conditional #7 from Indianapolis (LB Cam Johnson)
Miami has a #7 from San Francisco (OT Jonathan Martin)
Baltimore has a 7th round pick from Miami (OT Bryant McKinnie)
Dallas has a #7 from Baltimore (LB Rolando McClain)
NY Giants have a #7 from Denver (PK Brandon McManus)
New England has a #7 from Tennessee (as part of deal for OLB Akeem Ayers)

Other

St. Louis has an undisclosed late-round pick from New England (WR Greg Salas)
Jacksonville has a conditional pick from San Francisco (QB Blaine Gabbert)
Tennessee has a conditional pick from Dallas (DE Lavar Edwards)
Tampa Bay has an undisclosed pick from New England (LB Jonathan Casillas)

*******
2016

Sixth round

New England has a conditional #7 from Houston (QB Ryan Mallett)
http://gbnreport.com/traded-draft-picks/

Ignore the undisclosed TB pick. That's how it first got reported and they never changed it, but the Salas pick is for our assigned 7th..

 

[OhExaulted1]

I'm going to use DS (a site I've bee frequenting for about 4-5 years) as a template to guesstimate our pick #'s for 2015. It employs the same compensation pick distribution from last year. I'm also goung to use the Drafttek value chart to assign a numerical value to each pick just as an excercise to better give an idea of possible trade scenarios.

The Draft site template is by no means an exact science, ie I'm 99% certain TB and Tenn swap draft positions every round after the 1st, which they don't. I'm also going with the optimistic veiw that we win the SB. If anyone wants to attempt the daunting task of actually guessing where and to who each comp pick I'll throw out Rotoworlds 2014 FA tracker (too much research for me!). Kudos to mayoclinic who was pretty much right there in his guessteimation in post #3!

http://www.draftsite.com/nfl/mock-draft/2015/
http://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp?RequestTeam=NE
http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/45947/309/2014-nfl-free-agents

1. #32 assigned 590 pts
2. #64 assigned 270 pts
3. #96 assigned 116 pts
4. #97 (comp) 112 pts
5 #102 (TB) 92 pts
6. #132 assignes 40 pts
7. #178 (TB) 20.2 pts
8. #217 (Tenn) 4.6 pts

Total-1244.8 pts (which would be the value between #11 & 12 overall)

I'm still holding out hope the Jest get punished for tampering and if Roger is consistent with past rulings we could be in line for the Jest 7th (221, 3pts) since we have no close picks to swap. Not sure if they are losing their 6th or 4th (Harvin) until March I'm guessing, but that would still be to high for The Emporer I'm sure. Either way they should be punished in a manner that reflects past ruling on this transgression, JMHO.

For anyone daring enough (or somewhat nerdy and bored) to try to take a stab at the actual comp awards for this year I'll bet Miguel could supply alot of useful info. I think I'll just wait until http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/red_zone/2014-NFL-compensatory-pick-projections.html does it again or someone else takes the banner if he doesn't.

 

[patsfaninpa]

I'm going to use DS (a site I've bee frequenting for about 4-5 years) as a template to guesstimate our pick #'s for 2015. It employs the same compensation pick distribution from last year. I'm also goung to use the Drafttek value chart to assign a numerical value to each pick just as an excercise to better give an idea of possible trade scenarios.

The Draft site template is by no means an exact science, ie I'm 99% certain TB and Tenn swap draft positions every round after the 1st, which they don't. I'm also going with the optimistic veiw that we win the SB. If anyone wants to attempt the daunting task of actually guessing where and to who each comp pick I'll throw out Rotoworlds 2014 FA tracker (too much research for me!). Kudos to mayoclinic who was pretty much right there in his guessteimation in post #3!

http://www.draftsite.com/nfl/mock-draft/2015/
http://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp?RequestTeam=NE
http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/45947/309/2014-nfl-free-agents

1. #32 assigned 590 pts
2. #64 assigned 270 pts
3. #96 assigned 116 pts
4. #97 (comp) 112 pts
5 #102 (TB) 92 pts
6. #132 assignes 40 pts
7. #178 (TB) 20.2 pts
8. #217 (Tenn) 4.6 pts

Total-1244.8 pts (which would be the value between #11 & 12 overall)

I'm still holding out hope the Jest get punished for tampering and if Roger is consistent with past rulings we could be in line for the Jest 7th (221, 3pts) since we have no close picks to swap. Not sure if they are losing their 6th or 4th (Harvin) until March I'm guessing, but that would still be to high for The Emporer I'm sure. Either way they should be punished in a manner that reflects past ruling on this transgression, JMHO.

For anyone daring enough (or somewhat nerdy and bored) to try to take a stab at the actual comp awards for this year I'll bet Miguel could supply alot of useful info. I think I'll just wait until http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/red_zone/2014-NFL-compensatory-pick-projections.html does it again or someone else takes the banner if he doesn't.

Thanks for the links. That was a good mock site. Love the layout. Easy to scroll up and down to see who has been selected and who has available. Now, we have to tweak it

1. Eddie Goldman - DT - Florida St - I'm trading my 3 to Carolina to swap picks. I'd rather have Malcolm Brown. But, not a huge difference. Want to play right away in a rotation with; Silega, Branch
Easley and Chris Jones.

2. Jeremiah Poutasi - G - Utah - We need to get bigger and stronger at guard. Might start at RG.

3. traded

3. Supplemental O. Odighizuwa - DE - UCLA - Need a LDE to spell Ninko against run-first teams.
Doubt if he's there. But, who knows. Would take Flowers too. But, he went a few picks earlier.

4 from TB - Jarvis Harrison - G - Texas A&m - Wendell is a free agent after next season. Here's his replacement.

4. Jeff Heuerman - TE - Ohio St - Need a back-up to Gronk who can block. Not a bad athlete either.

6 from Tenn - Josh Shaw - CB - USC - Doubt he's here either. Can never have enough db's in today's NFL. Added bonus. Story time will be fun with this feller.

7 from TB - Trey McBride - DE - William & Mary - They have us taking him. Everyone here likes him. Sounds good to me.

I think we got a lot tougher and more athletic on both lines. Should be able to run the ball much better. We'll be a little weaker vs the run in the front four. I'm guessing VW gets a pink slip. But, with The Real Mayo coming back. We can prob run 4-3 against run-heavy teams with him, Hightower and Collins as your 3 backers. Because I'd be letting VW go, re-structure Mayo and extend Revis. That should be enough to bring the gang back on defense; McCourty, Siliga, Branch, Casillas and Ayers. I didn't get that edge rusher. But, I'm hoping Ayers can do that in a bigger role. Hightower and Collins might be able to help there too. They will have less responsibilities inside with Mayo back.

I know The World Revolves Around Wide Receivers Crowd(Can we call them the TWRAWRC from here on out?) won't be happy. But, it is what it is. I'm not writing off Dobson and Boyce just yet. Maybe, the McBride kid can contribute. I'm not against releasing Amendola with a post-June 1 designation to save 4.5m. Provided, you have a wr you can get at that price.

 

[OhExaulted1]

Can't help but look at Clev as potential partners in any Draft Day trades, although we really have no history with them. The other intriguing team? TB, who we have an extensive history with.

There's no such thing as "stand Pat" Bill (a famous reference to former Blue Jay GM Pat Gillick which is what he was famous for). There will be movement on Draft Day. It's almost a given.

 

[Miguel]

http://overthecap.com/projecting-the-compensatory-draft-picks-for-2015/

may be helpful

 

[OhExaulted1]

http://overthecap.com/projecting-the-compensatory-draft-picks-for-2015/

may be helpful

Nice find Miguel. I see it was posted today. I see he's got Fletcher counted which would give us a 7th. Hope that remains true. Very helpful for us draft nuts!

 

[OhExaulted1]

Interesting that if Blount doesn't count Pittsburgh may actually get an additional 7th. I would tend to think that's how it plays out.

 

[OhExaulted1]

TeamRoundCompensated Free AgentAvg./Year
NE 3 Aqib Talib $9,500,000
KC 3 Branden Albert $9,400,000
CIN 3 Michael Johnson $8,750,000
SF 4 Donte Whitner $7,000,000
DEN 4 Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie $7,000,000
BAL 4 Arthur Jones $6,600,000
SEA 4 Golden Tate $6,200,000
SEA 5 Brandon Browner $5,050,000
CAR 5 Mike Mitchell $5,000,000
BAL 5 Michael Oher $5,000,000
KC 5 Tyson Jackson $5,000,000
SEA 5 Breno Giacomini $4,500,000
KC 5 Jon Asamoah $4,500,000
HOU 5 Antonio Smith $4,500,000
BAL 6 Corey Graham $4,075,000
HOU 6 Earl Mitchell $4,000,000
PIT 6 Ziggy Hood $4,000,000
GB 6 Evan Dietrich-Smith $3,562,500
GB 6 James Jones $3,333,333
STL 6 Chris Williams $3,287,500
HOU 6 Ben Tate $3,100,000
SEA 6 Clinton McDonald $3,000,000
HOU 6 Joe Mays $3,000,000
DEN 6 Knowshon Moreno $3,000,000
DEN 6 Shaun Phillips $2,500,000
ARI 7 Jim Dray $1,875,000
DEN 7 Robert Ayers $1,875,000
NE 7 Dane Fletcher $1,200,000
SF 7 Anthony Dixon $1,166,667
KC 7 Quintin Demps $1,000,000
IND 7 Kavell Conner $900,000
IND 7 Jeff Linkenbach $900,000

Based on this chart I've tallied where our expected draft picks should land and revised my previous projections. The expectation of the 7th round award may be questionable, but based on what we know of the formula looks to be a reasonable expectation, therefore I will include it giving us a total of 9 picks in this years draft based on known information. The cloud of "deflate-gate" notwhithstanding this is my reasonable conclusion:

1-#32-590 pts
2-#64-270 pts
3-#96-116 pts
3-#97 (comp-Talib)-112 pts
4-#101 (TB-Mankins trade)-96 pts
4-#131-41 pts
6-#173 (TB-Casillas trade)-22.2 pts
7-#219 (TEN-Ayers trade)-3.8 pts
7-#252 (comp-Fletcher)-2 pts

Total=1253 draft value pts

 

[OhExaulted1]

Also, lest we all forget and this gets lost amongst the madness and hysteria, NE DID indeed file tampering charges against the NY Jets (specifically owner Woody Johnson). In previous cases involving CHI against SF (2008) and KC against DET (2011) the teams involved were indeed awarded draft pick compensation in the form of flipping later Rd. picks. (3rd and 5th)

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...ile-tampering-charges-over-jets-revis-comment

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...-case-setteled-in-the-most-unsettling-of-ways

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/...559_1_lance-briggs-bears-permission-tampering

This is shaping up to be a very interesting draft.

 

[manxman2601]

Also, lest we all forget and this gets lost amongst the madness and hysteria, NE DID indeed file tampering charges against the NY Jets (specifically owner Woody Johnson). In previous cases involving CHI against SF and KC against DET the teams were indeed awarded draft pick compensation in the form of flipping later Rd. picks.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...ile-tampering-charges-over-jets-revis-comment

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...-case-setteled-in-the-most-unsettling-of-ways

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/...559_1_lance-briggs-bears-permission-tampering

This is shaping up to be a very interesting draft.

I don't have anything constructive to say on this but I just wanted to thank you for the excellent work you've been doing in this thread.

 

[OhExaulted1]

I don't have anything constructive to say on this but I just wanted to thank you for the excellent work you've been doing in this thread.

Thanx manx!

 

[manxman2601]

We've got


PICK 32 BABY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[patsfaninpa]

We've got


PICK 32 BABY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Draft a GD guard. I wanna bring VW back too.