My Blueprint for the Defense

mayoclinic · Dec 8, 2014

A long-term cap thought. Revis and McCourty are obviously the short-term priorities, but down the road:

- Chandler Jones will be in his last year at low cost in 2015 ($2.6M cap hit). He has a 5th year option for 2016 that will likely be in the $7M range.
- Dont'a Hightower will be in his last year at low cost in 2015 ($2.45M cap hit). He has a 5th year option for 2016 that will likely be in the $7M range.
- Jamie Collins has 2 more years left at low cost in 2015 and 2016 ($1M and $1.2M cap hits).

That's 3 big contracts that will potentially come due in the 2016-2017 timeframe, or lose out on some really good talent that fits nicely. The contracts for Jerod Mayo and Vince Wilfork current would provide some potential relief in that timeframe. Wilfork could be cut in 2016 with a $6M cap savings, and only $433K dead money. Mayo's current deal would allow him to be cut/traded in 2016 with an $8M cap savings and only $2.5M dead money; in 2017 he would save $9.5M with no dead money.

It's too early to evaluate Dominique Easley, and he will be at low cost through 2017 (cap hit $2.23M), with a 2018 5th year option. Rob Ninkovich has 2 more years on his deal at cap hits of $3.7 and $3.1M, so his slot will probably ree up some cap space in 2017. It's vitally important to have a pipeline of low-cost productive players (bargain-value FAs or rookies on their 1st contracts) to even out the cap situation.

Something to think about.

mosi's man · Dec 8, 2014

Mayo, if last night was any indication then you were right on the money and I was wrong: the Pats can pressure the pocket. It was certainly reassuring to see especially in Hightower and Jones's absence. Having said that, it was a "scheme" related pressure that was applied, which is fine but may be less certain against more veteran, skilled teams/offensive linemen. I'd really like to see it for one more week against a mobile qb and Miami will be a good test. I think we're going to need to both "contain" and pressure the qb to be successful in the Superbowl as it's likely to be either Seattle or Green Bay. I still think an interior rush will be a necessity before all is said and done and would like to see this up-graded for next year. Furthermore, as a rule those guys are harder to find in the draft than interior linemen. I'd like us to go d-tackle in the first if the talent is there, followed by interior o-line in subsequent rounds, then fill in at the secondary, backup tight end, and perhaps linebacker. I think, if Easley can develop and with a couple developmental players in tow, that d-end is OK for now.

Regarding the longterm salary cap, I'd factor in a cost savings at qb as well.... I think that will likely transpire.

mayoclinic · Dec 8, 2014

mosi's man said:
Mayo, if last night was any indication then you were right on the money and I was wrong: the Pats can pressure the pocket. It was certainly reassuring to see especially in Hightower and Jones's absence. Having said that, it was a "scheme" related pressure that was applied, which is fine but may be less certain against more veteran, skilled teams/offensive linemen. I'd really like to see it for one more week against a mobile qb and Miami will be a good test. I think we're going to need to both "contain" and pressure the qb to be successful in the Superbowl as it's likely to be either Seattle or Green Bay. I still think an interior rush will be a necessity before all is said and done and would like to see this up-graded for next year. Furthermore, as a rule those guys are harder to find in the draft than interior linemen. I'd like us to go d-tackle in the first if the talent is there, followed by interior o-line in subsequent rounds, then fill in at the secondary, backup tight end, and perhaps linebacker. I think, if Easley can develop and with a couple developmental players in tow, that d-end is OK for now.

I think they have the horses to pressure, especially when Jones returns. I think GB was a game-plan adjustment based on available personnel and the need to contain Rodgers.

I've very comfortable with the ability to scheme pressure, and to generate pressure in sub. As Manx has pointed out, the gold standard is to generate effective pressure with a 4 (or ideally, 3) man rush. The Pats could use some horses in that respect.

Again, there are some very talented players potentially coming out this year, depending on the juniors. Shawn Oakman, Arik Amstead, DeForest Buckner, Marcus Hardison. All 6'4"+ 285#+ guys who can set the edge and provide pressure in base, and who can potentially kick inside in sub packages.

So right now I divide my defensive linemen into 3 groups:

1. DE/OLB EDGE players with schematic versatility. Dante Fowler, Bud Dupree, Danielle Hunter, Bernardrick McKinney and Shilique Calhoun fit beautifully here. Shawn Oakman and Owamagbe Odighizuwa don't fit quite as well, but have the athleticism to potentially play here.

2. Inside/Outside Hybrids. Oakman, Amsted, Bucker and Hardison all fit nicely into this group. Owamagbe Odighizuwa may fit here as well, or in the first group, or in both. Someone like Carl Davis might possibly fit here as well, or in the next group.

3. Interior pluggers who can push the pocket. Not just space eaters, but not primarily 3-techs. Danny Shelton, Eddie Goldman, Malcolm Brown, Jordan Phillips, Ellis McCarthy and Carl Davis are all of interest here.

I'd like to add 2 players from those 3 groups. Which ones depend on how the values fall.

mosi's man said:
Regarding the longterm salary cap, I'd factor in a cost savings at qb as well.... I think that will likely transpire.

I'm not thinking about that one right now.

Luxusdk · Dec 8, 2014

We talking about finding the replacement for Ninkovich, but the more I see on Ayers the more I beleave he's already here. The INT last night was a copy of Robs pick on Manning. He drops back, sets the egde, rush the passer and playing perfect BB stylies football. Depending what he wants, but a 5/40 contract sounds good?

mayoclinic · Dec 8, 2014

Luxusdk said:
We talking about finding the replacement for Ninkovich, but the more I see on Ayers the more I beleave he's already here. The INT last night was a copy of Robs pick on Manning. He drops back, sets the egde, rush the passer and playing perfect BB stylies football. Depending what he wants, but a 5/40 contract sounds good?

I think a 5/40 contract for Ayers would be very, very rich, and don't see how the Pats could afford it. He's made $5M over his 4 year rookie deal, and a few weeks ago was on the scrap heap. I think he could well take over Ninkovich's role as a hybrid DE/LB, but it's a bit early to go all in on him to that extent. Ninkovich's extension was for 3 years/$15M. I could see him getting something like a 3/$10M deal, or a 1 year "prove it deal" to show that he can sustain this level of productivity. I think something like Koa Misi's 4 year/$17M is a better long term target, unless Ayers really takes a big leap.

Luxusdk · Dec 8, 2014

If Patriots can get him for 3/15 ill take it in a heartbeat. My contract was a misstype, was meant to be a 5/30.
But if you can take it for ½ the Price then run with it

mayoclinic · Dec 8, 2014

Luxusdk said:
If Patriots can get him for 3/15 ill take it in a heartbeat. My contract was a misstype, was meant to be a 5/30.
But if you can take it for ½ the Price then run with it

5/$30 averages to $6M per. Connor Barwin got a 6/$36 deal from Philly, which was considered on the rich side. Though he's earned it this year, last year he didn't. Karlos Dansby signed a 4/$24 deal with the Browns - like Barwin's, not matched by his previous team. Obviously the guaranteed money and breakdown are important, but that seems high for someone with Ayers' long term track record. Remember, Aqib Talib signed a 1 year $5M deal with the Pats in 2013, after half a season's strong performance. I think either Ayers will sign a favorable deal with the Pats, or a short term deal to see how things work out, or he'll leave if someone ponies up a big deal for him. I'm hoping for one of the first 2, and would like the Pats to work something out before he hits FA. I think there's more of a risk that someone throws money at him than with Branch and Casillas.

mosi's man · Dec 8, 2014

One of the truly impressive aspects of Collins is his ability to tackle in open space. Some times he struggles to stack and shed, but in the open field he's a fantastic tackler and when he blitzes, he doesn't just get to the quarterback, he takes him to the ground. There are few plays as emotionally deflating as getting great pressure on the qb and then letting him escape to make a big play. Collins seems to always take the qb down once he arrives. I think that is a special ability that he possesses and may be a real weapon in the coming weeks if we play Seattle or Green Bay again because both Wilson and Rogers possess such great "escapability". This kid is the type of player who ends up as a Super Bowl MVP.

captain stone · Dec 8, 2014

I was glad to see Collins rush the QB last night more often than he seems to have done this season.
He's so damn explosive that he should be good for almost a sack a game even with limited opportunities.

mayoclinic · Dec 10, 2014

My rough (approximately) zero-sum approach to keeping the defense intact:

I. Players currently under contract:

1. Darrelle Revis, CB. Signed through 2015. 2015 cap hit: $25M (including $5M carryover from 2014).
2. Jerod Mayo, LB. Signed through 2017. 2015 cap hit: $10.3M.
3. Vince Wilfork, DT. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $8.4M.
4. Brandon Browner, CB. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $4.9M.
5. Kyle Arrington, CB. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $4.6M.
6. Rob Ninkovich, DE/OLB. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $3.7M.
7. Chandler Jones, DE. Signed through 2016, with an option for 2017. 2015 cap hit: $2.6M.
8. Dont'a Hightower, LB/DE. Signed through 2016, with an option for 2017. 2015 cap hit: $2.5M.
9. Dominique Easley, DT/DE. Signed through 2017, with an option for 2018. 2015 cap hit: $1.7M.
10. Alfonzo Dennard, CB. Signed through 2015. 2015 cap hit: $1.5M.
11. Tavon Wilson, S. Signed through 2015. 2015 cap hit: $1.3M.
12. Jamie Collins, LB. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $1,0M.
13. Logan Ryan, CB/S. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $750K.
14. Duron Harmon, FS. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $725K.
15. Nate Ebner, S. Signed through 2015. 2015 cap hitL $685K.
16. Michael Buchanan, DE/OLB. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $600K.
17. Chris Jones, DT/DE. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $585K.
18. Zach Moore, DE. Signed through 2017. 2015 cap hit: $535K.
19. Malcolm Butler, CB. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $510K.

19 players under contract; total 2015 cap hit = $71.89M.

II. FAs

20. Devin McCourty, FS
21. Akeem Ayers, DE/OLB
22. Pat Chung, SS
23. Alan Branch, DT
24. Jonathan Casillas, LB
25. Sealver Siliga, DT (ERFA)

III. Proposed extensions/signings:

Cap Savings from Extensions/Restructurings:

1. Extend Darrelle Revis: 4 years/$60M, $45M guaranteed, $20M signing bonus. That's a higher AAV than Joe Haden, Richard Sherman or Patrick Peterson, with more guaranteed money than Haden or Sherman and a bigger signing bonus than any of them. It's above the AAV for the top CBs, and bit below the AAV for the top 2 defensive contracts in the NFL (JJ Watt $16,5M AAV; Mario Williams $16M AAV; Gerald McCoy $15.8M AAV). Base salaries + incentives of roughly $7M, $9M, $9M and $15M (the last year non-guaranteed). 2015 cap hit: $17M ($5 million pro-rated signing bonus + $7M base + $5M carryover from 2014). Net 2015 cap savings: $8M. MgTeich and others have suggested more aggressive savings proposals, but I'm being conservative.

2. Restructure Jerod Mayo's deal to lower his 2015 cap his to about $7.5M. Net 2015 cap savings: $2.8M. Not sure if this would be via a direct pay cut, a restructuring, or an extension, but I think there is some room to work here.

3. Extend Kyle Arrington through 2017 with a 1 year $4M extension, lowering his 2015 cap hit by $1M.

4. Extend Brandon Browner through 2017 with a 1 year $4M extension, lowering his 2015 cap hit by $1M.

Total 2015 cap savings from defensive restructurings/extensions: $12.8M.

Cap Additions from Extensions/Re-Signings:

4. Sign Devin McCourty to a 5 year/$40M extension with $16M guaranteed and a $10M signing bonus. Base salary+incentives of $2.5M, $5.5M, $6.5M, $6.5M and $9M. 2015 cap hit: $5M.

5. Sign Akeem Ayers to a 4 year/$16M extension with $7.5M guaranteed and a $6.5M signing bonus. Essentially the same deal that Kyle Arrington got in 2013. Base salaries+incentives of $1M, $2M, $3M and $3.5M. 2015 cap hit: $2.625M. Someone could possibly throw more money at Ayers if he chooses to hit FA, but he's had only half a season of productivity and was on the scrap heap fairly recently, so I'm not sure he gets silly money. This deal values him - like Arrington - as a major rotational player and part of the defense, with starting potential.

6. Sign Alan Branch to a 2 year / $3M contract with $1M guaranteed and a $1M signing bonus. Base salary+incentives of $1M in 2015 and 2016. 2015 cap hit: $1.5M.

7. Sign Patrick Chung to a 2 year / $4M contract with $2M guaranteed and a $1M signing bonus. Base salary+incentives of $1.3M and $1.7M. 2015 cap hit: $1.8M.

8. Sign Jonathan Casillas to a 3 year/$4.5M contract with $2M guaranteed and a $1M signing bonus. Base salary+incentives of $1M, $1M and $1.5M. 2015 cap hit of $1.333M.

9. Sign Sealver Siliga to an ERFA contract. 2015 cap hit of around $660K, per Miguel.

Total 2015 defensive extensions/resignings: $12.918M.

That's about a $100K difference, which is minimal, and could probably be made up elsewhere.

These are very crude numbers, and rough estimates. Obviously, any of the re-signings could be drastically altered if someone wants to break the bank. But I think they are reasonable starting points. I think it is possible - though by no means easy, or a given - to keep the defense intact without adding to our current 2015 defensive cap allocation.

This would allow the Pats to potentially retain the 2014 defensive core completely intact for 2015, while keeping their cap space and carryover from 2015 for re-signing offensive and ST players, and for the draft, UDFAs, and contingency funds.

Wilfork's deal will likely be off the books in 2016, providing room for one of the 5th year options on Jones/Hightower. The other can probably be managed with the projected cap growth. Manning extensions for all of Jones, Hightower and Collins will be tricky, but with work the Pats should be able to keep the defense largely intact through 2017.

mayoclinic · Dec 10, 2014

BB on Ayers:

"He played outside linebacker in college and at Tennessee, and he played defensive end in sub situations, which is pretty common for a lot of guys like him, a Rob Ninkovich type of guy," Belichick said, pointing out that in the six games he's been with New England, the team has mostly been in sub defense which has had Ayers at end.

"He has done about what we expected him to do. He learned very quickly, got on the field quickly, has a lot of position flexibility physically, and has a lot of position flexibility mentally in terms of assignments -- rushing, covering, man coverage, zone coverage. He has a good feel for the game. He's a smart guy, an instinctive player -- like Rob, but different than Rob."

http://espn.go.com/blog/new-england...3963/akeem-ayers-has-turned-out-to-be-a-steal

We all know how much BB loves Ninkovich. High praise, indeed.

patsfaninpa · Dec 10, 2014

Great work Mayo. I'm willing to bite the bullet on VW to make sure I can bring all those other guys back and make an addition or two on offense. Draft a DT in Round 1. Would even move up for the right guy. The real Mayo will be gone after next year because of new deals for Hightower and Jones.

mayoclinic · Dec 10, 2014

patsfaninpa said:
I'm willing to bite the bullet on VW to make sure I can bring all those other guys back and make an addition or two on offense. Draft a DT in Round 1. Would even move up cor the right guy. The real Mayo will be gone after next year because of new deals for Hightower and Jones.

I would keep Wilfork through next year and draft his replacement. Take it year by year. As for the "real Mayo", give him a year to see how he fits and if he can stay healthy before making any decisions.

BTW, you are free to "dislike" anything you wish, but I'm curious what you found objectionable about post #1531.

manxman2601 · Dec 10, 2014

mayoclinic said:
I would keep Wilfork through next year and draft his replacement. Take it year by year. As for the "real Mayo", give him a year to see how he fits and if he can stay healthy before making any decisions.

BTW, you are free to "dislike" anything you wish, but I'm curious what you found objectionable about post #1531.

I wondered about that dislike, hard to find anything objectionable about that. I suspect that the wrong button was pressed - it happens to me a fair bit particularly when I'm on the phone.

mayoclinic · Dec 10, 2014

manxman2601 said:
I wondered about that dislike, hard to find anything objectionable about that. I suspect that the wrong button was pressed - it happens to me a fair bit particularly when I'm on the phone.

That happens to me on the phone frequently too, though I think I've caught them all and changed them. I have no objection to getting "dislikes" and don't generally post to win popularity contests, but in this case if it's true I'm curious what caused it, for my own edification.

mayoclinic · Dec 10, 2014

mayoclinic said:
My rough (approximately) zero-sum approach to keeping the defense intact:

I. Players currently under contract:

1. Darrelle Revis, CB. Signed through 2015. 2015 cap hit: $25M (including $5M carryover from 2014).
2. Jerod Mayo, LB. Signed through 2017. 2015 cap hit: $10.3M.
3. Vince Wilfork, DT. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $8.4M.
4. Brandon Browner, CB. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $4.9M.
5. Kyle Arrington, CB. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $4.6M.
6. Rob Ninkovich, DE/OLB. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $3.7M.
7. Chandler Jones, DE. Signed through 2016, with an option for 2017. 2015 cap hit: $2.6M.
8. Dont'a Hightower, LB/DE. Signed through 2016, with an option for 2017. 2015 cap hit: $2.5M.
9. Dominique Easley, DT/DE. Signed through 2017, with an option for 2018. 2015 cap hit: $1.7M.
10. Alfonzo Dennard, CB. Signed through 2015. 2015 cap hit: $1.5M.
11. Tavon Wilson, S. Signed through 2015. 2015 cap hit: $1.3M.
12. Jamie Collins, LB. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $1,0M.
13. Logan Ryan, CB/S. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $750K.
14. Duron Harmon, FS. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $725K.
15. Nate Ebner, S. Signed through 2015. 2015 cap hitL $685K.
16. Michael Buchanan, DE/OLB. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $600K.
17. Chris Jones, DT/DE. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $585K.
18. Zach Moore, DE. Signed through 2017. 2015 cap hit: $535K.
19. Malcolm Butler, CB. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $510K.

19 players under contract; total 2015 cap hit = $71.89M.

II. FAs

20. Devin McCourty, FS
21. Akeem Ayers, DE/OLB
22. Pat Chung, SS
23. Alan Branch, DT
24. Jonathan Casillas, LB
25. Sealver Siliga, DT (ERFA)

III. Proposed extensions/signings:

Cap Savings from Extensions/Restructurings:

1. Extend Darrelle Revis: 4 years/$60M, $45M guaranteed, $20M signing bonus. That's a higher AAV than Joe Haden, Richard Sherman or Patrick Peterson, with more guaranteed money than Haden or Sherman and a bigger signing bonus than any of them. It's above the AAV for the top CBs, and bit below the AAV for the top 2 defensive contracts in the NFL (JJ Watt $16,5M AAV; Mario Williams $16M AAV; Gerald McCoy $15.8M AAV). Base salaries + incentives of roughly $7M, $9M, $9M and $15M (the last year non-guaranteed). 2015 cap hit: $17M ($5 million pro-rated signing bonus + $7M base + $5M carryover from 2014). Net 2015 cap savings: $8M. MgTeich and others have suggested more aggressive savings proposals, but I'm being conservative.

2. Restructure Jerod Mayo's deal to lower his 2015 cap his to about $7.5M. Net 2015 cap savings: $2.8M. Not sure if this would be via a direct pay cut, a restructuring, or an extension, but I think there is some room to work here.

3. Extend Kyle Arrington through 2017 with a 1 year $4M extension, lowering his 2015 cap hit by $1M.

4. Extend Brandon Browner through 2017 with a 1 year $4M extension, lowering his 2015 cap hit by $1M.

Total 2015 cap savings from defensive restructurings/extensions: $12.8M.

Cap Additions from Extensions/Re-Signings:

4. Sign Devin McCourty to a 5 year/$40M extension with $16M guaranteed and a $10M signing bonus. Base salary+incentives of $2.5M, $5.5M, $6.5M, $6.5M and $9M. 2015 cap hit: $5M.

5. Sign Akeem Ayers to a 4 year/$16M extension with $7.5M guaranteed and a $6.5M signing bonus. Essentially the same deal that Kyle Arrington got in 2013. Base salaries+incentives of $1M, $2M, $3M and $3.5M. 2015 cap hit: $2.625M. Someone could possibly throw more money at Ayers if he chooses to hit FA, but he's had only half a season of productivity and was on the scrap heap fairly recently, so I'm not sure he gets silly money. This deal values him - like Arrington - as a major rotational player and part of the defense, with starting potential.

6. Sign Alan Branch to a 2 year / $3M contract with $1M guaranteed and a $1M signing bonus. Base salary+incentives of $1M in 2015 and 2016. 2015 cap hit: $1.5M.

7. Sign Patrick Chung to a 2 year / $4M contract with $2M guaranteed and a $1M signing bonus. Base salary+incentives of $1.3M and $1.7M. 2015 cap hit: $1.8M.

8. Sign Jonathan Casillas to a 3 year/$4.5M contract with $2M guaranteed and a $1M signing bonus. Base salary+incentives of $1M, $1M and $1.5M. 2015 cap hit of $1.333M.

9. Sign Sealver Siliga to an ERFA contract. 2015 cap hit of around $660K, per Miguel.

Total 2015 defensive extensions/resignings: $12.918M.

That's about a $100K difference, which is minimal, and could probably be made up elsewhere.

These are very crude numbers, and rough estimates. Obviously, any of the re-signings could be drastically altered if someone wants to break the bank. But I think they are reasonable starting points. I think it is possible - though by no means easy, or a given - to keep the defense intact without adding to our current 2015 defensive cap allocation.

This would allow the Pats to potentially retain the 2014 defensive core completely intact for 2015, while keeping their cap space and carryover from 2015 for re-signing offensive and ST players, and for the draft, UDFAs, and contingency funds.

Wilfork's deal will likely be off the books in 2016, providing room for one of the 5th year options on Jones/Hightower. The other can probably be managed with the projected cap growth. Manning extensions for all of Jones, Hightower and Collins will be tricky, but with work the Pats should be able to keep the defense largely intact through 2017.

As an extension of this analysis, if the Pats could pull this off then I wouldn't address defense at all in FA (unless New Orleans wants to trade us Kenny Vaccaro for a song

), and my defensive draft plan would be to add:

1. A DE or DE/OLB. Not sure which right now.
2. A DT with upside as a potential successor to Wilfork.
3. A DB or LB/DB hybrid.

That would be about it for the defense - a far cry from 9 months ago. With Revis, Browner, Easley, Ayers, Casillas, Branch and Moore added since that time and the development of Hightower and Collins, the defense has largely fulfilled the hopes of the OP.

patsfaninpa · Dec 10, 2014

mayoclinic said:
I would keep Wilfork through next year and draft his replacement. Take it year by year. As for the "real Mayo", give him a year to see how he fits and if he can stay healthy before making any decisions.

BTW, you are free to "dislike" anything you wish, but I'm curious what you found objectionable about post #1531.

I didn't dislike it intentionally. Must have clicked by mistake. I even complimented you on your plan.

mayoclinic · Dec 10, 2014

patsfaninpa said:
I didn't dislike it intentionally. Must have clicked by mistake. I even complimented you on your plan.

It's a freebie then. I probably have enough dislikable things from other posts to have earned it.

I was more curious than anything.

patsfaninpa · Dec 10, 2014

mayoclinic said:
It's a freebie then. I probably have enough dislikable things from other posts to have earned it.

I was more curious than anything.

I think when I was scrolling over to hit reply. Must have passed over row with the likes, dislikes, etc. and it clicked on it. I rarely use the dislike key. Never on draft board. We have excellent rapport over here when we disagree on someone's idea. We just tell them without insulting them.

captain stone · Dec 10, 2014

Mayo clearly isn't worth anything close to his cap #. If he doesn't accept a massive re-structuring,
then like Amendola he can''t stay here at the expense of losing someone else more productive.

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