My Blueprint for the Defense

[patsfaninpa]

Mayo clearly isn't worth anything close to his cap #. If he doesn't accept a massive re-structuring,
then like Amendola he can''t stay here at the expense of losing someone else more productive.

He's not worth the contract for sure. But, we'd have to pay a suitable replacement. I think he'll negotiate his 15 salary down. Will be playing time based. Like VW's was this year.

 

[luuked]

My rough (approximately) zero-sum approach to keeping the defense intact:

I. Players currently under contract:

1. Darrelle Revis, CB. Signed through 2015. 2015 cap hit: $25M (including $5M carryover from 2014).
2. Jerod Mayo, LB. Signed through 2017. 2015 cap hit: $10.3M.
3. Vince Wilfork, DT. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $8.4M.
4. Brandon Browner, CB. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $4.9M.
5. Kyle Arrington, CB. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $4.6M.
6. Rob Ninkovich, DE/OLB. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $3.7M.
7. Chandler Jones, DE. Signed through 2016, with an option for 2017. 2015 cap hit: $2.6M.
8. Dont'a Hightower, LB/DE. Signed through 2016, with an option for 2017. 2015 cap hit: $2.5M.
9. Dominique Easley, DT/DE. Signed through 2017, with an option for 2018. 2015 cap hit: $1.7M.
10. Alfonzo Dennard, CB. Signed through 2015. 2015 cap hit: $1.5M.
11. Tavon Wilson, S. Signed through 2015. 2015 cap hit: $1.3M.
12. Jamie Collins, LB. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $1,0M.
13. Logan Ryan, CB/S. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $750K.
14. Duron Harmon, FS. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $725K.
15. Nate Ebner, S. Signed through 2015. 2015 cap hitL $685K.
16. Michael Buchanan, DE/OLB. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $600K.
17. Chris Jones, DT/DE. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $585K.
18. Zach Moore, DE. Signed through 2017. 2015 cap hit: $535K.
19. Malcolm Butler, CB. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $510K.

19 players under contract; total 2015 cap hit = $71.89M.

II. FAs

20. Devin McCourty, FS
21. Akeem Ayers, DE/OLB
22. Pat Chung, SS
23. Alan Branch, DT
24. Jonathan Casillas, LB
25. Sealver Siliga, DT (ERFA)

III. Proposed extensions/signings:

Cap Savings from Extensions/Restructurings:

1. Extend Darrelle Revis: 4 years/$60M, $45M guaranteed, $20M signing bonus. That's a higher AAV than Joe Haden, Richard Sherman or Patrick Peterson, with more guaranteed money than Haden or Sherman and a bigger signing bonus than any of them. It's above the AAV for the top CBs, and bit below the AAV for the top 2 defensive contracts in the NFL (JJ Watt $16,5M AAV; Mario Williams $16M AAV; Gerald McCoy $15.8M AAV). Base salaries + incentives of roughly $7M, $9M, $9M and $15M (the last year non-guaranteed). 2015 cap hit: $17M ($5 million pro-rated signing bonus + $7M base + $5M carryover from 2014). Net 2015 cap savings: $8M. MgTeich and others have suggested more aggressive savings proposals, but I'm being conservative.

2. Restructure Jerod Mayo's deal to lower his 2015 cap his to about $7.5M. Net 2015 cap savings: $2.8M. Not sure if this would be via a direct pay cut, a restructuring, or an extension, but I think there is some room to work here.

3. Extend Kyle Arrington through 2017 with a 1 year $4M extension, lowering his 2015 cap hit by $1M.

4. Extend Brandon Browner through 2017 with a 1 year $4M extension, lowering his 2015 cap hit by $1M.

Total 2015 cap savings from defensive restructurings/extensions: $12.8M.

Cap Additions from Extensions/Re-Signings:

4. Sign Devin McCourty to a 5 year/$40M extension with $16M guaranteed and a $10M signing bonus. Base salary+incentives of $2.5M, $5.5M, $6.5M, $6.5M and $9M. 2015 cap hit: $5M.

5. Sign Akeem Ayers to a 4 year/$16M extension with $7.5M guaranteed and a $6.5M signing bonus. Essentially the same deal that Kyle Arrington got in 2013. Base salaries+incentives of $1M, $2M, $3M and $3.5M. 2015 cap hit: $2.625M. Someone could possibly throw more money at Ayers if he chooses to hit FA, but he's had only half a season of productivity and was on the scrap heap fairly recently, so I'm not sure he gets silly money. This deal values him - like Arrington - as a major rotational player and part of the defense, with starting potential.

6. Sign Alan Branch to a 2 year / $3M contract with $1M guaranteed and a $1M signing bonus. Base salary+incentives of $1M in 2015 and 2016. 2015 cap hit: $1.5M.

7. Sign Patrick Chung to a 2 year / $4M contract with $2M guaranteed and a $1M signing bonus. Base salary+incentives of $1.3M and $1.7M. 2015 cap hit: $1.8M.

8. Sign Jonathan Casillas to a 3 year/$4.5M contract with $2M guaranteed and a $1M signing bonus. Base salary+incentives of $1M, $1M and $1.5M. 2015 cap hit of $1.333M.

9. Sign Sealver Siliga to an ERFA contract. 2015 cap hit of around $660K, per Miguel.

Total 2015 defensive extensions/resignings: $12.918M.

That's about a $100K difference, which is minimal, and could probably be made up elsewhere.

These are very crude numbers, and rough estimates. Obviously, any of the re-signings could be drastically altered if someone wants to break the bank. But I think they are reasonable starting points. I think it is possible - though by no means easy, or a given - to keep the defense intact without adding to our current 2015 defensive cap allocation.

This would allow the Pats to potentially retain the 2014 defensive core completely intact for 2015, while keeping their cap space and carryover from 2015 for re-signing offensive and ST players, and for the draft, UDFAs, and contingency funds.

Wilfork's deal will likely be off the books in 2016, providing room for one of the 5th year options on Jones/Hightower. The other can probably be managed with the projected cap growth. Manning extensions for all of Jones, Hightower and Collins will be tricky, but with work the Pats should be able to keep the defense largely intact through 2017.

As I mentioned in aomenother thread I really like all of it and certainly hope that we get most of our depth players back.

Also, hopefully we found our longterm Ninkovich replacement in Ayers.


In any case, I have been looking at some Nate Solder film and I was curious of any of you that have a more trained eye see a difference in his technique compared to last year before his concussions.

I wonder if the staff worked with him since then to change a few things to reduce his concussions. They started to pile up.

Thats the only think I couls think of so far to explain his regression in protection.

 

[mosi's man]

My rough (approximately) zero-sum approach to keeping the defense intact:

I. Players currently under contract:

1. Darrelle Revis, CB. Signed through 2015. 2015 cap hit: $25M (including $5M carryover from 2014).
2. Jerod Mayo, LB. Signed through 2017. 2015 cap hit: $10.3M.
3. Vince Wilfork, DT. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $8.4M.
4. Brandon Browner, CB. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $4.9M.
5. Kyle Arrington, CB. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $4.6M.
6. Rob Ninkovich, DE/OLB. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $3.7M.
7. Chandler Jones, DE. Signed through 2016, with an option for 2017. 2015 cap hit: $2.6M.
8. Dont'a Hightower, LB/DE. Signed through 2016, with an option for 2017. 2015 cap hit: $2.5M.
9. Dominique Easley, DT/DE. Signed through 2017, with an option for 2018. 2015 cap hit: $1.7M.
10. Alfonzo Dennard, CB. Signed through 2015. 2015 cap hit: $1.5M.
11. Tavon Wilson, S. Signed through 2015. 2015 cap hit: $1.3M.
12. Jamie Collins, LB. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $1,0M.
13. Logan Ryan, CB/S. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $750K.
14. Duron Harmon, FS. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $725K.
15. Nate Ebner, S. Signed through 2015. 2015 cap hitL $685K.
16. Michael Buchanan, DE/OLB. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $600K.
17. Chris Jones, DT/DE. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $585K.
18. Zach Moore, DE. Signed through 2017. 2015 cap hit: $535K.
19. Malcolm Butler, CB. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $510K.

19 players under contract; total 2015 cap hit = $71.89M.

II. FAs

20. Devin McCourty, FS
21. Akeem Ayers, DE/OLB
22. Pat Chung, SS
23. Alan Branch, DT
24. Jonathan Casillas, LB
25. Sealver Siliga, DT (ERFA)

III. Proposed extensions/signings:

Cap Savings from Extensions/Restructurings:

1. Extend Darrelle Revis: 4 years/$60M, $45M guaranteed, $20M signing bonus. That's a higher AAV than Joe Haden, Richard Sherman or Patrick Peterson, with more guaranteed money than Haden or Sherman and a bigger signing bonus than any of them. It's above the AAV for the top CBs, and bit below the AAV for the top 2 defensive contracts in the NFL (JJ Watt $16,5M AAV; Mario Williams $16M AAV; Gerald McCoy $15.8M AAV). Base salaries + incentives of roughly $7M, $9M, $9M and $15M (the last year non-guaranteed). 2015 cap hit: $17M ($5 million pro-rated signing bonus + $7M base + $5M carryover from 2014). Net 2015 cap savings: $8M. MgTeich and others have suggested more aggressive savings proposals, but I'm being conservative.

2. Restructure Jerod Mayo's deal to lower his 2015 cap his to about $7.5M. Net 2015 cap savings: $2.8M. Not sure if this would be via a direct pay cut, a restructuring, or an extension, but I think there is some room to work here.

3. Extend Kyle Arrington through 2017 with a 1 year $4M extension, lowering his 2015 cap hit by $1M.

4. Extend Brandon Browner through 2017 with a 1 year $4M extension, lowering his 2015 cap hit by $1M.

Total 2015 cap savings from defensive restructurings/extensions: $12.8M.

Cap Additions from Extensions/Re-Signings:

4. Sign Devin McCourty to a 5 year/$40M extension with $16M guaranteed and a $10M signing bonus. Base salary+incentives of $2.5M, $5.5M, $6.5M, $6.5M and $9M. 2015 cap hit: $5M.

5. Sign Akeem Ayers to a 4 year/$16M extension with $7.5M guaranteed and a $6.5M signing bonus. Essentially the same deal that Kyle Arrington got in 2013. Base salaries+incentives of $1M, $2M, $3M and $3.5M. 2015 cap hit: $2.625M. Someone could possibly throw more money at Ayers if he chooses to hit FA, but he's had only half a season of productivity and was on the scrap heap fairly recently, so I'm not sure he gets silly money. This deal values him - like Arrington - as a major rotational player and part of the defense, with starting potential.

6. Sign Alan Branch to a 2 year / $3M contract with $1M guaranteed and a $1M signing bonus. Base salary+incentives of $1M in 2015 and 2016. 2015 cap hit: $1.5M.

7. Sign Patrick Chung to a 2 year / $4M contract with $2M guaranteed and a $1M signing bonus. Base salary+incentives of $1.3M and $1.7M. 2015 cap hit: $1.8M.

8. Sign Jonathan Casillas to a 3 year/$4.5M contract with $2M guaranteed and a $1M signing bonus. Base salary+incentives of $1M, $1M and $1.5M. 2015 cap hit of $1.333M.

9. Sign Sealver Siliga to an ERFA contract. 2015 cap hit of around $660K, per Miguel.

Total 2015 defensive extensions/resignings: $12.918M.

That's about a $100K difference, which is minimal, and could probably be made up elsewhere.

These are very crude numbers, and rough estimates. Obviously, any of the re-signings could be drastically altered if someone wants to break the bank. But I think they are reasonable starting points. I think it is possible - though by no means easy, or a given - to keep the defense intact without adding to our current 2015 defensive cap allocation.

This would allow the Pats to potentially retain the 2014 defensive core completely intact for 2015, while keeping their cap space and carryover from 2015 for re-signing offensive and ST players, and for the draft, UDFAs, and contingency funds.

Wilfork's deal will likely be off the books in 2016, providing room for one of the 5th year options on Jones/Hightower. The other can probably be managed with the projected cap growth. Manning extensions for all of Jones, Hightower and Collins will be tricky, but with work the Pats should be able to keep the defense largely intact through 2017.

This is great work. My only question would be whether the Pats want to return such a high percentage of the roster on either side of the ball.

I have felt that BB aims to add "new blood" yearly to the roster during this great run in part to improve talent but also to keep motivation high, and keep the players from becoming "stale". The nfl is such a war of attrition both physically and psychologically, going deep into the playoffs each year takes a heavy toll. As you know, during their superbowl run, the Pats played the equivalent of an extra season of football compared to some other teams. As such, I think BB has looked to add new, highly motivated talent on a yearly basis, often in the form of competitive players who have played for less successful franchises as a means of keeping energy high during the subsequent season. I look at Seattle earlier this season as an example of a roster that probably took a while to get "re-motivated". This is something the Pats have been able to avoid and I think BB has turned over a certain percentage of the back end/middle class of the roster with this in mind.

It is impressive how BB has built this team and it looks deep and talented. But in the nfl a certain amount of turnover might be necessary to sustain the kind of success the Pats have exhibited.

 

[luuked]

This is great work. My only question would be whether the Pats want to return such a high percentage of the roster on either side of the ball.

I have felt that BB aims to add "new blood" yearly to the roster during this great run in part to improve talent but also to keep motivation high, and keep the players from becoming "stale". The nfl is such a war of attrition both physically and psychologically, going deep into the playoffs each year takes a heavy toll. As you know, during their superbowl run, the Pats played the equivalent of an extra season of football compared to some other teams. As such, I think BB has looked to add new, highly motivated talent on a yearly basis, often in the form of competitive players who have played for less successful franchises as a means of keeping energy high during the subsequent season. I look at Seattle earlier this season as an example of a roster that probably took a while to get "re-motivated". This is something the Pats have been able to avoid and I think BB has turned over a certain percentage of the back end/middle class of the roster with this in mind.

It is impressive how BB has built this team and it looks deep and talented. But in the nfl a certain amount of turnover might be necessary to sustain the kind of success the Pats have exhibited.

If this is true then I would assume it would affect mostly depth level players and there ordered by how long they have been here. Right ?

Ayers, Casillas & Co. have been here for half a season and didn't take part in a TC under BB. Don't think that they would be affected by that.

Chung might be a candidate that needs to be watched carefully after surging this season on a 1 year contract. But apart from him I don't see many that fit the profile and are of big consequence (Bequette ? Tavon Wilson ?).

 

[mosi's man]

I think a guy like Casillas has, in addition to adding depth in a position of need, been just such an addition as I described. I'd see a guy like Branch or even Dennard as potentially affected down the road.

 

[mayoclinic]

This is great work. My only question would be whether the Pats want to return such a high percentage of the roster on either side of the ball.

I have felt that BB aims to add "new blood" yearly to the roster during this great run in part to improve talent but also to keep motivation high, and keep the players from becoming "stale". The nfl is such a war of attrition both physically and psychologically, going deep into the playoffs each year takes a heavy toll. As you know, during their superbowl run, the Pats played the equivalent of an extra season of football compared to some other teams. As such, I think BB has looked to add new, highly motivated talent on a yearly basis, often in the form of competitive players who have played for less successful franchises as a means of keeping energy high during the subsequent season. I look at Seattle earlier this season as an example of a roster that probably took a while to get "re-motivated". This is something the Pats have been able to avoid and I think BB has turned over a certain percentage of the back end/middle class of the roster with this in mind.

It is impressive how BB has built this team and it looks deep and talented. But in the nfl a certain amount of turnover might be necessary to sustain the kind of success the Pats have exhibited.

I think continuity is important. It took half a season for this defensive unit to learn the system and learn how to gel together. The Pats play a complex defensive with a lot of hybrid schemes and coverage packages, mixing and matching. With more time together this group should only get better. We've added a ton of new blood on defense this year: Revis, Browner, Chung, Ayers, Casillas, Easley, Branch, Moore. Competition and a pipeline of talent are good. Constant turnover for the sake of it is bad.

With the plan I outlined, the Pats would not only keep their defense intact for 2015, but for 2016 as well, and probably 2017. The only FAs in 2016 based on the above plan are Sealver Siliga (who will be an RFA), Tavon Wilson, Alfonzo Dennard, and Nate Ebner. I expect Siliga and Ebner to be kept. Wilson will probably be gone after his rookie deal, unless he stays on the cheap as a depth/ST option. Dennard has been good, but it's not clear he's merited a 2nd year deal with a lot of money tied up in the secondary, and he is replaceable. Draft a DT successor to Wilfork and a DE, and pipeline some day 3 DBs over the next 2 years, and 2016 is covered. For 2017 Jones, Hightower and Collins are the big players to be signed, but but that Wilfork's and Ninko's contracts will be off the books, and possibly Mayo's as well.

I think there will be some turnover, and plenty of internal competition. Wilfork, Mayo and Ninkovich will all have reduced roles, and the first 2 may not last past 2015. Easley will hopefully develop next year the way Collins has. I'd add a rookie DE and DT this year, who will hopefully develop into starters. There will be intense competition at the backup DB spots, and for the roster depth at DE and DT. The bottom 1/3+ of the defensive depth chart (Chris Jones, Moore, Buchanan, Dennard, Butler, Ryan, Wilson, Harmon and Ebner, plus rookies and UDFAs) will all be fighting for roster spots and playing time. That's enough for me.

IMO, BB has built the most talented, deepest and most versatile defensive roster in the league, and it's starting to play at an elite level. Why would you not want to keep it largely intact?

 

[mosi's man]

I alluded to the exceptional talent and depth and would want to keep it largely intact. I was only pointing out that BB, imo, plans for a certain amount of turnover as a means of keeping motivation high. I saw the move to a guy like Seau as very much in line with this concept. He was still a functional player and continued to play at a reasonably high level, but he (I think more importantly) brought a level of motivation/energy that BB seeks out as important when you coach a team that plays 3-4 extra games a year compared to many of your competitors.

 

[mayoclinic]

I alluded to the exceptional talent and depth and would want to keep it largely intact. I was only pointing out that BB, imo, plans for a certain amount of turnover as a means of keeping motivation high. I saw the move to a guy like Seau as very much in line with this concept. He was still a functional player and continued to play at a reasonably high level, but he (I think more importantly) brought a level of motivation/energy that BB seeks out as important when you coach a team that plays 3-4 extra games a year compared to many of your competitors.

I understand. I just think there will be plenty of internal competition. Wilfork will be playing to hold off a rookie and prove he deserves another year in 2016. Mayo will be fighting for playing time with Collins and Hightower and to show he's still an elite LB. And there will be a ton of competition for snaps and roster space among the depth players, as I've outlined. I'm not sure how much more you have in mind - can you be more specific about what you think would be preferable?

 

[mosi's man]

As I mentioned, Branch and Dennard come to mind, although there may be others like Chung, maybe even Chris Jones or Siliga. I'm talking about the periphery of the defensive roster, but I'd wouldn't be surprised to see BB bring in 2-4 veterans who have played on the Buffalos and Miamis and Carolinas of the world who have another year of two left in the tank to replace players who have had uncharacteristically good years, or who are injury or motivational risks going forward. Branch, in a sense, is fulfilling this role right now as a guy with extrinsic motivation who may slip over time.

Granted, given the depth, talent, and high character on this defense, there aren't many of these players on the roster aside from those I have mentioned. I only point out how hard it is to be so successful for this long in a league practically designed to prevent this from happening. And I wonder whether BB believes that some turnover for turnovers sake alone provides value and helps a team stay at the top perpetually as this team has.

 

[mayoclinic]

As I mentioned, Branch and Dennard come to mind, although there may be others like Chung, maybe even Chris Jones or Siliga. I'm talking about the periphery of the defensive roster, but I'd wouldn't be surprised to see BB bring in 2-4 veterans who have played on the Buffalos and Miamis and Carolinas of the world who have another year of two left in the tank to replace players who have had uncharacteristically good years, or who are injury or motivational risks going forward. Branch, in a sense, is fulfilling this role right now as a guy with extrinsic motivation who may slip over time.

Granted, given the depth, talent, and high character on this defense, there aren't many of these players on the roster aside from those I have mentioned. I only point out how hard it is to be so successful for this long in a league practically designed to prevent this from happening. And I wonder whether BB believes that some turnover for turnovers sake alone provides value and helps a team stay at the top perpetually as this team has.

Dennard is under contract through 2015 at low cost, so I wouldn't focus on replacing him next year. If someone beats him out, fine. I think he's a prime candidate to be replaced in 2016. Butler is also a UFA in 2016, and most likely only one of them stays. [Arrington is currently a UFA in 2016, but in my scenario he gets extended another year.] Right now I don't see Wilson or Harmon getting a 2nd contract, unless it is on the cheap and as a ST/depth guy. So there's got to be a pipeline of S and CB competition in both 2015 and 2016.

Chung and Branch to me are both worth keeping, but only at a price. My deals for them were fairly reasonable. Either or both could choose to test the market and someone could throw more money at them. I wouldn't break the bank for either, but I'd prefer to keep both if possible. I gave both 2 year deals because they are in the "question-mark" category. I think that Ryan Wendell's deal is a good template for this kind of situation - give the player lots of incentives to work hard and produce, and protect the team somewhat if things don't work out. The team seems to like these kind of incentive-based deals. Casillas seems like more of a sure thing with less upside but also less risk, so I gave him a 3 year extension, also at low cost.

 

[mosi's man]

I think your rationale is solid and wouldn't argue against it from a pure roster perspective. I just wonder whether BB looks at roster turnover itself as a positive given the Pats overall circumstances.

We all know that the nfl season is brutal. There is a reason few teams repeat as champs and that losing the Superbowl usually dooms a team to a lackluster following season. I'm not sure we all appreciate how hard it is both physically and mentally. Teams are exhausted; the offseason is delayed by several months. More players need rehab/surgery etc.. The players association is holding out against an 18 game regular season for these reasons. I think mentally the toll is enormous as well. It must be incredibly difficult to restart psychologically for the following year, especially when playing for a team like the Pats that goes deep into the playoffs every year. I look at the 49ers implosion this year as, in part, due to this. After a really good, extender run they are physically battered, have tuned out the coach, but most importantly look liked they have packed it in. I think they are emotionally exhausted. This is the norm.

So if you are BB one part of your efforts to combat the mental and physical fatigue may be to plan on a certain amount of roster turnover. You bring in hungry, high character veterans who have spent the last few months recovering while you have been playing football and they can kick start your offseason, invigorate the teams attitude, be enthusiastic to the coach's message, etc.. I look at a signing like Adrian Wilson and think that may have been a part of why BB brought him in. He added nothing to the team during the season, but I wonder whether BB would have characterized his tenure with the team as a complete failure. He was by all accounts a real professional, a workout warrior, and a leader for the young players. And he was ready to go immediately, unlike a bunch of team leaders who were injured/rehabbing, etc.. Look, I'm not trying to overstate the importance of this kind of thing, I'm merely pointing out that a certain amount of change for change itself can confer some benefit, especially for a team that has been so consistently excellent for so long. So if BB looks at Chung or Branch or Harmon or others and replaces them with "fresh" veterans who appear to provide little or no upgrade, I wouldn't be surprised.

 

[mayoclinic]

I think your rationale is solid and wouldn't argue against it from a pure roster perspective. I just wonder whether BB looks at roster turnover itself as a positive given the Pats overall circumstances.

I'm obviously just guessing, but I think he views roster turnover as a by-product of competition as healthy, but not necessarily in and of itself. The ultimate goal is to have as strong a roster as possible.

We all know that the nfl season is brutal. There is a reason few teams repeat as champs and that losing the Superbowl usually dooms a team to a lackluster following season. I'm not sure we all appreciate how hard it is both physically and mentally. Teams are exhausted; the offseason is delayed by several months. More players need rehab/surgery etc.. The players association is holding out against an 18 game regular season for these reasons. I think mentally the toll is enormous as well. It must be incredibly difficult to restart psychologically for the following year, especially when playing for a team like the Pats that goes deep into the playoffs every year. I look at the 49ers implosion this year as, in part, due to this. After a really good, extender run they are physically battered, have tuned out the coach, but most importantly look liked they have packed it in. I think they are emotionally exhausted. This is the norm.

So if you are BB one part of your efforts to combat the mental and physical fatigue may be to plan on a certain amount of roster turnover. You bring in hungry, high character veterans who have spent the last few months recovering while you have been playing football and they can kick start your offseason, invigorate the teams attitude, be enthusiastic to the coach's message, etc.. I look at a signing like Adrian Wilson and think that may have been a part of why BB brought him in. He added nothing to the team during the season, but I wonder whether BB would have characterized his tenure with the team as a complete failure. He was by all accounts a real professional, a workout warrior, and a leader for the young players. And he was ready to go immediately, unlike a bunch of team leaders who were injured/rehabbing, etc.. Look, I'm not trying to overstate the importance of this kind of thing, I'm merely pointing out that a certain amount of change for change itself can confer some benefit, especially for a team that has been so consistently excellent for so long. So if BB looks at Chung or Branch or Harmon or others and replaces them with "fresh" veterans who appear to provide little or no upgrade, I wouldn't be surprised.

The problem with replacing players is that there are associated transaction costs - dead money, and the cost of learning the the system. It's fine to replace Chung or Branch if BB can find a better option within his price range; both players have a head start in terms of learning the playbook, and after 1/2-1 season on the team if they are numb to BB's message that would be a big surprise. Harmon is eminently replaceable, but he's got 2 years remaining on his rookie deal at low cost ($725K and $815K) and about $450K in dead money if you cut him this. The way to "replace" him is to draft/sign someone at reasonable cost who outplays him, and if that happens, I'm fine with it.

Right now we have a lot of "leaders" and veteran experience on the defense, so I'm not sure what bringing in a veteran like Wilson would provide. JMHO.

 

[BobDigital]

Good work Mayo. I noticed in one of your salary breakdowns you didn't even bring up Wilfork which IMO is the low hanging fruit. I don't think the Pats cut him but he plays for less than 8M.

As for moves to make I don't see any starting spots open or true depth spots open besides a safety (if you don't believe in Harmon/Wilson/Ebner) assuming they make the signings you want.

Anyway I was toying with the idea of what if they trade Mayo? Sounds crazy I know but hear me out.

Right now the base of the D is the nickel. I think it is a waste to sit a pro bowl quality LB (I think Hightower/Collins are both near that) and bad allocation of resources.

Now I am not saying give him away for free. If you could pick up a good defensive player and save money to sign another though I think it might have a net benefit. The added bonus is we have seen this D can be a top D without him. The trade I probably make his Mayo/Chung for top SS/decent LB.

I think that would just make this D so much better being able to have 1 more full time star on the field. Maybe it would even save money too depending.

 

[mayoclinic]

Good work Mayo. I noticed in one of your salary breakdowns you didn't even bring up Wilfork which IMO is the low hanging fruit. I don't think the Pats cut him but he plays for less than 8M.

As for moves to make I don't see any starting spots open or true depth spots open besides a safety (if you don't believe in Harmon/Wilson/Ebner) assuming they make the signings you want.

Anyway I was toying with the idea of what if they trade Mayo? Sounds crazy I know but hear me out.

Right now the base of the D is the nickel. I think it is a waste to sit a pro bowl quality LB (I think Hightower/Collins are both near that) and bad allocation of resources.

Now I am not saying give him away for free. If you could pick up a good defensive player and save money to sign another though I think it might have a net benefit. The added bonus is we have seen this D can be a top D without him. The trade I probably make his Mayo/Chung for top SS/decent LB.

I think that would just make this D so much better being able to have 1 more full time star on the field. Maybe it would even save money too depending.

A couple of thoughts:

1. Wilfork restructured last year, and thinks got a bit tense. I'm not sure why he would accept a pay cut. He'd probably just prefer the Pats to cut him, and test the market. Take a look at some of the DTs out there and what they are getting paid. There will still be a market for Wilfork.

2. If the Pats trade Mayo they eat $6M of dead money. Mayo's $6M+ base salary is also guaranteed for injury, so I think it would be hard to get another team to take that on before verifying that Mayo is truly ready to go. I can't imagine that he would pass a physical 6 months after tearing his ACL.

3. Do you have a specific idea for a "top SS/decent LB" combo that you would try to trade for? Do you expect the top SS to command a hefty price tag? Again, Mayo's dead money would be a big transaction cost. Also, 3 of our current top 10 cap hits for 2015 are DBs (Revis, Browner and Arrington). Do you really want to take on another big DB salary and further skew the investment in that particular area?

I'm not sure either idea will stand up to scrutiny. But I'm open to ideas.

 

[BobDigital]

Well the idea was not really fleshed out just spit balling. : P

I was thinking it be good to sub in one elite player for another elite player at a position of more need. I would do just a LB for a SS straight up and fill in the whole with a FA or just go with your roster as is.

 

[mayoclinic]

A nice read from Doug Farrar at SI.com on whether the Seahawk's D may actually be better now than it was last year:

http://www.si.com/nfl/2014/12/11/al...richard-sherman-michael-bennett-tharold-simon

It's a nice read, and highlights the Seahawks doing some of the things BB generally does in terms of making game-specific adjustments.

One of the guys highlighted is former LSU CB Tharold Simon, who I BADLY wanted in 2013 (as Grid can attest). Simon has Shermanesque size and good ball skills:

As for Simon, the second-year player from LSU has been impressing the team's coaches and players since he was selected in the fifth round of the 2013 draft out of LSU. He missed his rookie season with a foot injury, but everyone was excited to see what he could do in 2014 -- Sherman told me in the preseason that Simon had the potential to be every bit as good as he is. So far this season, Simon has allowed eight catches in 15 targets for 69 yards, no touchdowns, one interception and a 37.9 opposing quarterback rating in 160 snaps -- not even Sherman has a better opposing quarterback rating among Seattle's cornerbacks this season.

Having 2 big guys outside also allows the Seahawks to move Byron Maxwell to the slot at times. Simon went in the 5th round in 2013 (#138 overall), and I was pissed that the Pats passed on him. Simon in 2013 and Kevin Pierre-Louis in 2014 are two players who I think would have fit perfectly on our defense. I would love to get someone like Tony Lippett and convert him back to be a big outside CB. Having that kind of length outside is a big plus.

 

[captain stone]

Another piece needing to be added to the 2015 defense: an explosive DLman who is actually, you know,
healthy coming out of college.

Easley = the worst 1st-round pick since Stomper Meriweather.

 

[mosi's man]

Another piece needing to be added to the 2015 defense: an explosive DLman who is actually, you know,
healthy coming out of college.

Easley = the worst 1st-round pick since Stomper Meriweather.

Exactly how often is such a player found with the 30-32nd pick in the draft, never mind later on? An
"explosive" DLman taken at the very bottom of the first round, who will impact the defense as a rookie. I think your expectations are high.

 

[mayoclinic]

Another piece needing to be added to the 2015 defense: an explosive DLman who is actually, you know,
healthy coming out of college.

Easley = the worst 1st-round pick since Stomper Meriweather.

These kind of idiotic statements really only make you look dumber and dumber. Whether Easley turns out to be a great pick or a terrible pick can't be judged after 1 season while injured.

 

[mayoclinic]

From Reiss' Quick Hits today:

1. With cornerback Darrelle Revis as the centerpiece, the Patriots are deeper, more talented and healthier in the secondary this late in the season than at any point I can remember in Bill Belichick’s prior 14 seasons as head coach. That’s been a key because of 420 defensive snaps played over the last six games, the Patriots have been in sub packages (which call for at least one extra player in the secondary) a staggering 377 times. That means they were only in their base or goal-line defense on just 43 snaps over the last six games. Think about that for a moment. We often refer to a defense as a base 3-4 or base 4-3, but teams like the Patriots are in those packages less frequently than ever. Sub is the new base.

Patriots 2014 defensive packages Sub: 661 of 898 (73.6 percent)
Base: 227 of 898 (25.2 percent)
Heavy: 10 of 898 (1.1 percent)

Nothing new, except for how high the percentages have climbed. With almost 75% of the snaps out of sub, "base" really is becoming less and less important. Andy Johnson has already speculated that a major goal on defense is being able to stop the run out of the "sub". It's something to think about in terms of draft and FA players who might fit, and contract priorities. Some guys who stand out to me include (but are not limited to):

- DE/OLB Bud Dupree
- DE/OLB Dante Fowler
- DE/OLB Danielle Hunter
- LB/sub DE Bernardrick McKinney
- LB/S Shaq Thompson

Tons of other guys who might fit well, too.