Idle thoughts – Dolphins edition and other tidbits

There’s been a lot of hype this week but not much substance on the board for the Dolphins game. A lot of roster talk, with BB shuffling through more people in and OUT of Foxboro like a rush hour turnstile. A lot of “will he or won’t he” talk about Gronk. What we haven’t seen is any real talk about THE GAME. What are the match ups? Who are the weak points?. Where are the advantages? So with less than 3 days left, here’s your chance. Let the discussion begin.

1. My biggest fear for this game is the weather. Most of the summer here was relatively cool and dry. When the Pats get off their plane on Friday they will be stepping into a totally different environment. One that the Dolphins have been training in for 3 months.

No matter how much lip service they give it. This is a distinct advantage for the Dolphins, every bit as big as having them coming up here and having to play in sub-freezing weather.

2. On paper the biggest match up advantage for the Phins is their DL against our OL. This is hard to assess, especially since we haven’t really have any idea who is going to be on our OL.

The way Jared Odrick handled Logan Mankins last December might be a big reason he’s in Tampa this week. Randy Starks is a better than average DT/N, and Wake and Vernon are an excellent pair of rush ends.

You can say what you want about the relative strength of the AFCE, but as happy as we all are about the future of our DL, it could be the 4th best unit in the division as of THIS moment…..at least on paper.

How our OL protects the QB and how effectively we can run the ball is going to be key to any success we have.

PREDICTION: In this matter I think we are going to wind up with a mixed bag. I think, regardless of the configuration, we are going to be happier than expected with the results of the pass protection Brady gets. I’ll concede a couple of sacks but by and large Brady is going to have enough time to make the Pats pass offense effective. However my fear is that we will see what we saw vs the Giants, and our run game isn’t going to have the same kind of success we’ve come to expect. This is the area where Mankins and Wendell excelled. I find it hard to think that the run game won’t suffer if both aren’t playing.

3. The Pats DL, vs. the Dolphins’ OL. – I’m sure this is an area that looks strongly to favor the Pats. So while the Pats DL looks to be much improved from the one that lost last year in Miami, the Dolphin OL is
still the biggest question mark for the Phins. Brandon Albert is an excellent LT, but the interior of the Dolphins OL is even in worse shape than ours, and IIRC the Phins are going to have to start a rookie at RT

Assuming the Pats aren’t going to line up in many static DL alignments, this could present a lot of problems for an OL that hasn’t had much time together.

PREDICTION – However many sacks the Dolphins get, the Pats will end up with more. The Dolphins problems on the OL will be exacerbated by the fact they can’t prepare for what the Pats are going to show them. 4-3? 3-4? Aggressive or soft? We don’t have a clue even after 4 games in preseason, how can they?

4. One of the most interesting match ups I will be looking for is how the Pats choose to defend Charles Clay. Will they sic Collins on him? Will they try to do it with a S? I’m sure that it won’t be done just one way, but one way will predominate.

Prediction – I think it will be Collins getting the first shot to cover him.

5. I worry a lot that the officials are going to seriously affect this game. I can live with some ticky tack defensive holding calls, but I will go nuts if any incidental hands to the face calls are made. Make the call if someone is hanging on to a guy’s facemask. But let it go if the hand just happens to slide up on a guy’s helmet in the course of a rush.

Now they only called 12 penalties in the Packer/Seahawk game (8-4) so they .didn’t go nuts in that one, but that doesn’t mean it won’t be bad on Sunday.

6. As much as I can’t wait to see Gronk on the field, I am REALLY excited to finally see if Dominic Easley will meet the high expectations I have for him. The very fact that he’ll be on the field and not even on the injury report puts him way ahead of schedule.

He will probably only get limited snaps this week (30 odd), because he’s missed so much practice time. Hopefully they will put him out there and just turn him loose. Let him grow into being a fully responsible DLman over time. But for this game, let him one gap Miami to death

7. Grimes and Finnegan are 2 solid NFL CB’s and Delmas is a guy I hoped the Pats might look at when he was a FA. So this is going to be a decent test of the effectiveness of our passing game.

8. Strategy Questions:

a. How much hurry up are we really going to see from both sides. It’s always easier to run a hurry up when you are home. However with a brand new offense and unfamiliar OL, is running a hurry up against a defense you can’t have a handle on, because it’s the first game, in your best interests. If they have it down, it should be very effective in heat against a team not used to the weather.

On the Pats side, while they are clearly one of the most capable hurry up teams in the league, I wonder if they might be better off slowing the game down and conserving energy. Also, as I mentioned above, it’s always more difficult running a hurry on the road because of the noise.

What I think would be a good compromise would be a start and stop approach. In other words go into the huddle for a few plays, and then for no apparent reason, run off 4 or 5 plays from the no huddle and then go back.

b. Will Revis play the left side or follow Wallace all over the field.

c. Will the Pats use multiple S’s depending on down and distance, or has someone actually won that job and BB just failed to tell us?

d. Just how committed to the running game will we actually be. Last year IIRC, averaged around 65-70 offensive plays per game. I’d like to think that at least 25-30 of them be rushes on Sunday.

9. On Brady’s “injury”. When I was still playing touch football and club lacrosse into my early 50’s, calf injuries were usually my injury dujour. If not too bad, they can be managed, but you never know when it will pop again.

I’d like to think that it’s just BB ****ing with the Dolphins and the media, but, I don’t think so. Whatever it is I doubt very much whether we will ever know the full story. This guy has played through bad ribs, hands, shoulders, feet, and we only hear about it (maybe) after the season. This will be no different.

10. Ben Volin is a douche. In an effort out Shank, Shaunessy, he picked against the Pats merely so he can pat himself on the back if he’s right, while like most mediots, he’ll take absolutely NO responsibility if he’s wrong. I REALLY really miss Greg Bedard.


11. Summary: If both teams play well, the Pats should still win this by 10. But as we know, proper execution can rarely be predicted. If we get a good effort we should win, if not, the results will be in doubt.

Can't wait for Sunday. In the meantime help me fill in the blanks about the Dolphins. There is a lot more to discuss than what I've opened with

patfanken said:

Can't wait for Sunday. In the meantime help me fill in the blanks about the Dolphins. There is a lot more to discuss than what I've opened with

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their O line is a big ? They have Knowshon Moreno at RB...he tore our defense to shreds last season. THe Phins have no answer outside of a pass rush for our passing game. Vereen cannot be covered by their LB's and...AND ...if Gronk plays I can assure you that he will NOT drop a TD pass that hits him in the hands in the EZ like Hooman did last season...20 feet away from me.

The heat is overrated if you are AHEAD down there...behind and the O line huffing will stress Brady in the 2nd half. I see no way, with their current defensive roster, that they can double Gronk AND Edelman...and they WILL have to double one of them. Amendola dropped a sure TD down there last season, a ball he catches 99% of the time. He gets a shot at redemption because they WILL have to single him...that's a loss for the Phins D too.

This race horse offense the Phins installed is the exact same one Philly ran. It took Philly, with BETTER talent, a good while to get it in sync.

My thought on this game is get up on the Phins and then paper cut them to death with long sustained possessions. Easier said than done in THAT heat at this time of the year. I normally go to this game but NEVER in a September. 1 pm and sunshine??? IV City.

Very thorough analysis, Ken. I think you covered pretty much all of the bases quite nicely, and I'm curious to see some of the responses in the following 48 hrs.

I will agree with Ben Volin not only being a bit of a douche, but also a rather shoddy sports reporter. To say that we miss Bedard is an understatement.

As I've mentioned in the sportsbetting thread, I personally would not lay the 5 points on the road in a divisional game. I would think that there are better moves to make than that one. That said, I do agree with you that under "normal" circumstances, the NEP should come out victorious. As you mentioned, the heat and some unknown variables may throw a wrench in the plan to win without much competition. I could see something like a 10-13 point lead in the 3rd/4th quarter with MIA having the ball; thus making the game (and pointspread) a bit closer than some are predicting.

These week one games are sometimes a bit hard to predict due to some of the variables and matchups that you bring up. We just don't know enough about the losses/additions in the offseason, and how they may affect either team.

I can't remember going into a season in which great things are expected but big questions abound like they do on this team. At this point we still have pretty much no idea how they will run their base defense, half of their starting secondary, LB alignment, DL alignment, OL set-up and personel. They are loaded with good players and have decent depth but we still have no idea how they are going to use them. Can't wait to see how it unfolds, I think we are going to see little to no base defense and all sorts of hybrid sets on both sides of the ball.

Some thoughts on the thoughts;

Playing in the cold for warm weather teams is easier than the other way around. There are more cold weather football climates than warm.

The Fins CBs seem to get away with more contact than most teams. They remind me of the Broncos in that regard. I didn't see any change to that in the small amount of Miami action that I saw in the preseason.

I find it odd that Seattle's handling of the Broncos in the SB was the reason that the whiners asked for stricter rules on the defense, but in the first real game that the Hawks play against a top passing offense they only draw four penalties. So much for the new emphasis. Maybe they'll just call it against teams that Peyton plays against.

The Pats never commit enough to the running game for my liking. I doubt that will change now that Mankins is gone.

Hopefully we'll see Brady take a few plays off at the end of games they're winning big. I've never agreed with their strategy of leaving Brady in for every snap regardless of the score.

I have no problem with anyone who picks against the Pats, especially in a game played down in Miami. They seem to give us more trouble than any other AFCE team.

You can have the best schemes and best players on Offense, but it all starts in the trenches.. and this O line is essentially brand new... not having the opportunity to play together may lead to some wrinkles..

Also think our D is quite a bit better... so look for some different looks and schemes when they take the field.

DarrylS said:

You can have the best schemes and best players on Offense, but it all starts in the trenches.. and this O line is essentially brand new... not having the opportunity to play together may lead to some wrinkles..

Also think our D is quite a bit better... so look for some different looks and schemes when they take the field.

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The O line has been my biggest concern all offseason and now that the season is about to start, I'm still concerned. I don't believe that they did enough to improve it. We will see.

My biggest concern is the weather. Not just the heat, as you can deal with that, but the oppressive humidity. No one who hasn't lived in a humid environment can understand just how much energy it sucks out of you.

The Patriots have always had trouble dealing with Miami on the road, and in almost every case, it's come down to conditioning. Whichever team is best conditioned, and has the best support staff on the sidelines to keep the players hydrated and replacing their lost electrolytes will be the team that wins this game.

I predicted a 27-24 Patriots win, but it might be closer than that. Personally, I really don't care so much what the final score is, as long as New England has at least one more than their opponent.

But that heat, and especially that humidity will be the deciding factor in this game. Whoever can best compensate for that will be victorious.

I'm excited to see Gronk and Vereen on the feild at the same time. Many teams don't have one coverage linebacker nevermind two. Really tough to defend them both at the same time.

Pats-Phan said:

I'm excited to see Gronk and Vereen on the feild at the same time. Many teams don't have one coverage linebacker nevermind two. Really tough to defend them both at the same time.

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Not only that, but typically even a coverage linebacker isn't enough for Gronk on his own. You need a safety over the top as well. So imagine Gronk pulls a linebacker and a safety, Vereen pulls another linebacker. Now you know that at least one of your outside receivers has single coverage with no safety help, and the middle has fewer big'uns to clog up the lanes for Amendola or Edelman if he's in the slot. Gronk opens up a ton of options for the other guys.

That said, depending on how much he plays, we may not see that as much this Sunday. I imagine he'll play 100% of the snaps down near the goal line, but between the 20's they'll need to rely on other mismatches. It will be interesting to see if Wright can provide some of that.

DarrylS said:

You can have the best schemes and best players on Offense, but it all starts in the trenches.. and this O line is essentially brand new... not having the opportunity to play together may lead to some wrinkles..

Also think our D is quite a bit better... so look for some different looks and schemes when they take the field.

Click to expand...

The New England Patriots offensive line is not essentially brand new. It would not surprise me if the offensive line starters are the following:

Solder - Kline - Wendell - Connolly - Vollmer

At worst, Cannon will be the backup swing tackle. The seventh offensive lineman dressed should be an interesting decision.

I could only get about 1/3 down right now, have to leave for a meeting. But fantastic stuff as always, Ken. Looking forward to finishing this this afternoon!

Good points Ken.

Hurry Up
Good thoughts on the hurry up. As a twist, if Miami's execution is good, could they turn the tables on our defense and dial-up the hurry up themselves? Given the heat, it could amplify their aforementioned heat/humidity advantage.

Miami O-line and our Blitz
Last year, I recall our blitz generating success in stymying their offense, given their O-line struggles. Will we see a lot of blitzing in this game? One thing to consider is how vanilla our defenses historically are early in the season. We typically see the blitzes pick up later in the season.

Penalties
I have a feeling the 12 penalties called in the season opener will not be reflective of this weekend. Granted those two teams are generally regarded as well-coached, I wonder if the referees selected for the game were selected based on how often they call penalties. If the opener kicked the season off a myriad of game-stopping penalties, that would represent the first impression for fans everywhere. Goodell and the NFL wanted few penalties and NO concussions in that game.

Ivan said:

I can't remember going into a season in which great things are expected but big questions abound like they do on this team. At this point we still have pretty much no idea how they will run their base defense, half of their starting secondary, LB alignment, DL alignment, OL set-up and personel. They are loaded with good players and have decent depth but we still have no idea how they are going to use them. Can't wait to see how it unfolds, I think we are going to see little to no base defense and all sorts of hybrid sets on both sides of the ball.

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I agree. And rather than interpret that as a sign of doom and gloom (like the PFW boys), I think it's fantastic that we don't have any idea, even at the level of the most fundamental scheme (3-4 or 4-3 or...) Imagine what it's been like for the Dolphins to try to put together a game plan..

supafly said:

Very thorough analysis, Ken. I think you covered pretty much all of the bases quite nicely, and I'm curious to see some of the responses in the following 48 hrs.

I will agree with Ben Volin not only being a bit of a douche, but also a rather shoddy sports reporter. To say that we miss Bedard is an understatement.

As I've mentioned in the sportsbetting thread, I personally would not lay the 5 points on the road in a divisional game. I would think that there are better moves to make than that one. That said, I do agree with you that under "normal" circumstances, the NEP should come out victorious. As you mentioned, the heat and some unknown variables may throw a wrench in the plan to win without much competition. I could see something like a 10-13 point lead in the 3rd/4th quarter with MIA having the ball; thus making the game (and pointspread) a bit closer than some are predicting.

These week one games are sometimes a bit hard to predict due to some of the variables and matchups that you bring up. We just don't know enough about the losses/additions in the offseason, and how they may affect either team.

Click to expand...

Heh. I was perusing the Phins forums yesterday and they were grousing about James Walker and, oh yeah, oh much they missed Ben Volin!

Joker said:

their O line is a big ? They have Knowshon Moreno at RB...he tore our defense to shreds last season. THe Phins have no answer outside of a pass rush for our passing game. Vereen cannot be covered by their LB's and...AND ...if Gronk plays I can assure you that he will NOT drop a TD pass that hits him in the hands in the EZ like Hooman did last season...20 feet away from me.

The heat is overrated if you are AHEAD down there...behind and the O line huffing will stress Brady in the 2nd half. I see no way, with their current defensive roster, that they can double Gronk AND Edelman...and they WILL have to double one of them. Amendola dropped a sure TD down there last season, a ball he catches 99% of the time. He gets a shot at redemption because they WILL have to single him...that's a loss for the Phins D too.

This race horse offense the Phins installed is the exact same one Philly ran. It took Philly, with BETTER talent, a good while to get it in sync.

My thought on this game is get up on the Phins and then paper cut them to death with long sustained possessions. Easier said than done in THAT heat at this time of the year. I normally go to this game but NEVER in a September. 1 pm and sunshine??? IV City.

Click to expand...

Can we have the real Joker back? This one is too serious.

patfanken said:

a. How much hurry up are we really going to see from both sides. It’s always easier to run a hurry up when you are home. However with a brand new offense and unfamiliar OL, is running a hurry up against a defense you can’t have a handle on, because it’s the first game, in your best interests. If they have it down, it should be very effective in heat against a team not used to the weather.

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I don't think their offense will be quite that unfamiliar to us. I believe that one reason BB chose to hold joint camp practices with the Eagles was to learn more about their up tempo offense because as you know, the new Phins OC, Lazor, used to be the QB coach for Philly, and he has basically installed the same Chip Kelly philosophy down there.

10. Ben Volin is a douche. In an effort out Shank, Shaunessy, he picked against the Pats merely so he can pat himself on the back if he’s right, while like most mediots, he’ll take absolutely NO responsibility if he’s wrong. I REALLY really miss Greg Bedard

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I'll be at this game. I'll try to log in and post in here about how brutal the heat is.

KontradictioN said:

I'll be at this game. I'll try to log in and post in here about how brutal the heat is.

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Talk about your hot topics..