Would you mortgage the future to win now with Brady?

patsinthesnow said:

Why not? Really, give it a thought.

-History points to Brady having two elite years left. Two QBs have been great past 38, Moon and Favre. That's it.
-Brady's contract makes him the without a doubt our starting QB for 2014 and 2015. However, he can be traded with a gain in cap space in 2016.
-Christian Hackenberg, the closest college QB to the next Andrew Luck, is not eligible for the draft until 2016.

If people really want to see #4/Brady go down as GOAT, while also having another decade plus of excellence:

-Load the team in 2014/2015 with backloaded contracts similar to JEST 2010 style, taking advantage of a weak AFC as the Luck Colts are a couple years away and the Broncos/Manning have 1 year left at most. Barring crazy injuries again, the Pats would be the #1 seed the next two years and most likely represent the AFC in the superbowl.
-After 2015 and hopefully finally winning #4, trade Brady (if he's still playing at a high level) off the sinking ship to his hometown 49ers after Kaepernick's eventual suckage.
-Withstand the first awful Patriots season in 15 years to get the #1 pick, and as a result the next franchise QB.

I would not have a problem "mortgaging the future" to try to win #4 in 2014/2015.

Main point: I would easily say no way if Brady was 30, 33, or even 35. But he turns 37 this season. The future is now with him, unless some think a 39+ brady could actually carry this team like in 06/13 fashion.

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I think past history is useless to determine what Brady's window is. This is uncharted territory for elite QBs over the age of 35 for several reasons:
- The rules protecting the QBs today. No elite QB of the past (even Favre who retired only a few years ago) had this many rules protecting the QB. In fact, there was a lull of elite QBs in between Elway and Favre. Many of the elite QBs of the past broke down because they were getting beaten on year after year. Brady has always had more rules protecting him than most of the past elite QBs.
- Modern medicine. Guys who were forced to retire because of injuries affecting their play (Montana, Young for example) might have played a high level for 2, 3, 4, or even 5 more years if they had the medicine of today. Back when they were playing, a torn ACL was almost a career death sentence and almost a guarantee that the player would never be the same again. Now it is a six month injury.
- Modern conditioning. Brady is in better shape from a conditioning standpoint than most of the elite QBs of the past. Hell, some of the QBs of the 70s would smoke and drink a lot during the season. Brady is the first one in the gym every morning and he works with strength and conditioning coaches who know far more about keeping him healthy and strong longer into his career than their predecessors do.

Brady could hit the age wall next season for all we know, but he also could be an elite QB into his forties for all we know. You can't look at past QBs who played decades ago as an indicator of how long Brady will play today. You just can't because many of them would have played far longer if they were playing under the same conditions that Brady is.

Bruins29 said:

I actually agree with snow that it would be great if they could go all in these last couple of years to get TB the 4th ring.

However, it is not as easy as it sounds. The only way I see mortgaging the future is to use draft pics. What do you do with them? It is not exactly like you can just trade them for stud players because the cap would make it pretty prohibitive to stack the team with talent.

OR, you could trade away future pics for more current higher pics. Lets say much higher pics in this draft and the next. Sure! You "could" end up with some better players in these drafts but by the time they were ready to make a big contribution TB would be gone most likely. If they wanted to do that they would have a few years ago.

Best thing to do is get the right players with the right chemistry and scheme the right way. Pretty much what they have been doing the past 10 years. Unfortunately, since the last SB they have run into the worst luck possible and/or played their worst when it counted most..

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Yeah, the win now mentality is good in theory, but in practice it can be a disaster. Even if you assemble the most talented team in the NFL by a long shot, there is no guarantee you will a Super Bowl with it.

In other sports, you can do this because they have best of 5 or 7 series where almost every time the more talented team wins. But in an one and done playoffs, you can face a team that is just hot at the moment and they can beat a far superior team (see the first Super Bowl vs. the Giants).

If the OP is asking about this hypothetically as in If a genie came to me and said TB can have a ring this year guaranteed but the team will not win another again for a long time or even be mediocre I would take the ring.

I do think people underestimate that 4th for TB. It would make him the unequivocal GOAT which to me is worth some crappy future seasons. It is like in 2003 when I said I would take a world series in 2004 and a 0-162 season after. Little did I know...

The question is how much this team values that 4th ring VS sustained success. I cant see this continuing without TB so I would definitely take some risks even it it meant hurting the future a bit. There are just no guarantees.

At this point, if you're mortgaging the future, then you're hurting future Brady-led teams. There's no reason to expect fewer than four more years from Brady. This is a discussion that would have some actual value in 2017, which (barring freak injury) I'd say is when the "Brady's last season" window opens.

There is no future in pro sports, win now.

Sciz said:

At this point, if you're mortgaging the future, then you're hurting future Brady-led teams. There's no reason to expect fewer than four more years from Brady. This is a discussion that would have some actual value in 2017, which (barring freak injury) I'd say is when the "Brady's last season" window opens.

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Why are you so confident he'll be playing at an elite level four years from now? Not saying that to bag on your opinion, I'm just curious as to what your reasoning is.

What I would or wouldn't "mortgage" to "win" this year, next year or any year, with or wtihout Tom Brady (or any NEP Coach or player come to think of it) really doesn't matter.

The Krafts have proven over the last 15 or so years that they are committed to a formula for managing the franchise and that their formula takes a long term view.

From Adam Vinatieri to Asante Samuel to Deion Branch to Wes Welker and many times in between, they have chosen to let a player go who, in the opinion of many of us, could have helped them "win" in a given season for a given expenditure.

I see no reason to think that that is going to change now. Even with Tom Brady approaching (but certainly not yet "at") the end of his career, the Krafts will be looking two or three seasons down the road. With seven trips to the AFCCG and five to the SB in the last 12 years, that approach seems to be working OK.

Mortgaging your future doesn't guarantee a championship. By definition, it will almost certainly deny you of one for several years after your window closes. Pats have a good shot every year with the current plan... why **** it all up?

Rob0729 said:

I think past history is useless to determine what Brady's window is. This is uncharted territory for elite QBs over the age of 35 for several reasons:
- The rules protecting the QBs today. No elite QB of the past (even Favre who retired only a few years ago) had this many rules protecting the QB. In fact, there was a lull of elite QBs in between Elway and Favre. Many of the elite QBs of the past broke down because they were getting beaten on year after year. Brady has always had more rules protecting him than most of the past elite QBs.
- Modern medicine. Guys who were forced to retire because of injuries affecting their play (Montana, Young for example) might have played a high level for 2, 3, 4, or even 5 more years if they had the medicine of today. Back when they were playing, a torn ACL was almost a career death sentence and almost a guarantee that the player would never be the same again. Now it is a six month injury.
- Modern conditioning. Brady is in better shape from a conditioning standpoint than most of the elite QBs of the past. Hell, some of the QBs of the 70s would smoke and drink a lot during the season. Brady is the first one in the gym every morning and he works with strength and conditioning coaches who know far more about keeping him healthy and strong longer into his career than their predecessors do.

Brady could hit the age wall next season for all we know, but he also could be an elite QB into his forties for all we know. You can't look at past QBs who played decades ago as an indicator of how long Brady will play today. You just can't because many of them would have played far longer if they were playing under the same conditions that Brady is.

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Well said. My whole "win now" theory is based on my opinion that Brady has two elite years left. If what you and Sciz believe ends up true, than "mortgaging your future" is a bad idea.

I just seriously doubt Brady will be great past 38 years old. Brett Favre is the ultimate exception and Warren Moon started in the NFL at an older age. Every other QB retired or showed a rapid decline in play past 38. Hopefully past history won't matter as you say.

Galeb said:

Mortgaging your future doesn't guarantee a championship. By definition, it will almost certainly deny you of one for several years after your window closes. Pats have a good shot every year with the current plan... why **** it all up?

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As I said, the Pats can go "all in" on Brady without mortgaging their future.

I'm not even sure what "mortgage the future" means

The team has finite cap space so it's not like they can trade players or spend wrecklessly to give Brady a guaranteed dominant offense and defense.

Every year we see a team come out of the off season looking great on paper - the Eagles from two seasons come to mind and I was generally impressed by the moves that the Dolphins made last season. In both cases what looks good on paper failed on the field.

If there was a guarantee of good health for all players I'd say "yes" but we know there's not.

Some fans wax poetic about the dominant 2007 season and ask why Belichcik doesn't go out and bring in another Randy Moss and Wes Welker. They forget that Moss = a 4th round draft pick for a troubled player with questionable production and a 2nd rounder for a guy named Welker who the Dolphins didn't think enough of to match the offer on.

So while I don't rule out Belichick trading away a 2nd and 4th round pick, that's not mortgaging the future, nor is there any guarantee that such picks - or even the #1 pick in the draft - will guarantee a Super Bowl.

Belichick will attempt to improve the team as he always does through the draft, free agency, trades and pickups from other teams. Coupled with the good luck of good health of existing and returning players that should be enough to win the Super Bowl THIS season without impacting future seasons.

KontradictioN said:

As I said, the Pats can go "all in" on Brady without mortgaging their future.

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I think Brady went "all in" with the last extension he signed. An extra 11-12 million a year for the team to spend elsewhere may be the difference.

No way. We already have his heir apparent on the roster in Ryan Mallet. Spend those future dollars to keep him around. I hear he's quite valuable.

In all seriousness, though, how do you really "mortgage the future" in the salary cap era? I hear terms like "this team is in salary cap hell", next thing you know their signing good players and being competitive. The league has to OK all contracts last I knew, so I don't think they let anyone get to far over their heads. When was the last time a team got docked draft picks for salary cap reasons? I don't care to look it up but it's been like 15 years or something.

One of you nerds will give me the exact particulars anyway and I'm feeling lazy tonight.

The correct answer would be "yes"




Duh.

SalemPats said:

We are a Brady retirement from a re-build.

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In case you havent noticed, we are just about done with an extremely successful "rebuild". Well, with BB i dont think he's ever done as one thing that is certain is that change is constant in the Not For Long football league.

NE Patriots are now one of the youngest teams with a budding defense, superior special teams, young receivers, powerful running backs, an all world TE (due for a full season) and a very deep and powerful "o" line.

This team is primed to continue its winning ways for many years to come.

All of that said, naturally, Tom Brady is one of a kind and we sure are lucky to have him. I want to see this team spend some serious money, right now and push things over the top so that he can win 2 out of the next three and walk away as truly the "greatest of all time" with absolutley no doubt anywhere.

Just stop and think, dream and imagine how FIVE Super Bowl championships out of SEVEN appearances would look.

Galeb said:

I think Brady went "all in" with the last extension he signed. An extra 11-12 million a year for the team to spend elsewhere may be the difference.

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Not disputing your thinking, but I feel as though it's sometimes overlooked that Brady came out pretty good in that deal as well. It was a win-win for both sides.

I don't believe that any of these newer 100+ million dollar deals that we've been seeing have as much as the 55 million or so in guaranteed money that Tom will receive.

The only exception would be Drew Brees' latest contract from a couple of yrs ago, and even that was right around the same ballpark at about 60 million guaranteed. As they say, "it's all about the guaranteed money," and Brady pretty much guaranteed himself a very nice payday. In the future, we may see moves like this even more, particularly with players who are aging like Tom Brady. It guarantees him the peace of mind that he can see all of that guaranteed money, without worrying about dropoff and injury.

patsinthesnow said:

Well said. My whole "win now" theory is based on my opinion that Brady has two elite years left. If what you and Sciz believe ends up true, than "mortgaging your future" is a bad idea.

I just seriously doubt Brady will be great past 38 years old. Brett Favre is the ultimate exception and Warren Moon started in the NFL at an older age. Every other QB retired or showed a rapid decline in play past 38. Hopefully past history won't matter as you say.

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Still don't think there is a magic date of expiration for him like that he turns into a pumpkin at age 38. To gamble the farm on him only having two years left as an elite QB is a very dangerous game especially if he ends up having 4-5.

Let's say that the Pats gamble that Brady only has two years left as an elite QB and they don't win a Super Bowl and three years from now Brady is still elite and the Pats have to dismantle a large part of the team like in 2009, what will you say then? Betting the farm to win now is no guarantee for a Super Bowl. In fact, the odds don't seem to be any better than not betting the farm based on recent Super Bowl winners.

There are plenty of teams who build to win now and end up not even go to the Super Bowl and then have to start from scratch. Teams that build for the long haul seem to have more success in the Super Bowl.

Brady's new Boston digs...



Brady's California "house"...



poor Brady.....poor poor poor Tommie