Prediction: Pats trade up to #8 with Tennessee to get........ Nick Fairley. My thought process....
First, consider this bit from Don Banks of cnnsi.com, who has Fairley going #8 to the Titans: "The Titans would love to land either Washington quarterback Jake Locker or TCU's Andy Dalton, but somewhere later in the round (in the No. 14-20 range), so they'll explore any trade options. If Gabbert somehow lingers, Tennessee would pull that trigger. If the Titans sit tight, they'll take Fairley and feel confident they're getting one of the draft's slam-dunk top 10 prospects." The Pats sit squarely in the middle of that 14-20 range at 17, and one of those QBs should be there by then. If there is no QB run in the first 7 picks, Tennessee might feel pretty sure that there will be a QB for them at 17.
Then, consider this bit from Pete Prisco (I know, I know...everyone here hates him) on Nick Fairley, who he has ranked as the #1 prospect in this year's draft: "I don't understand how people have dropped him down the board. Watch his tape. He destroys guys. And I have talked to coaches who like the kid. I did as well."
I agree with Prisco, amazingly. I think Fairley, especially in a disciplined environment (like New England's), will be a *monster*. He can play DT or, in a 3-4, probably a DE as well, but a very disruptive one for sure. I know he didn't play in a 3-4 at Auburn, but he has a TON of talent. Really quick, powerful, can just beat people up...put him next to Wilfork, who commands a double team at all times, and Fairley would be free to abuse people one-on-one.
So NE trades the #17 and the #60 for Tennessee's #8 and a 4th rounder next year. The Pats then take Fairley and Tennessee grabs either Locker or Dalton.
Then, with the #28, the Pats trade down into the 2nd round, adding a 2nd round pick in 2012 as well.
With the #33 pick, they take Derek Sherrod to shore up the OLine.
With the pick they grabbed from the #28 (say around the #45 range), they grab Danny Watkins, completing the O-Line rebuilding.
And with the #74, they get Ryan Williams, the dynamic RB out of Virginia Tech.
So to recap the results of their first five picks:
- DT Nick Fairley
- OL Derek Sherrod
- OL Danny Watkins
- RB Ryan Williams
- add a 2nd round pick in 2012
- add a 4th round pick in 2012
This instantly upgrades the defense considerably, rebuilds the OL, adds a major playmaker at RB, and adds a couple of picks in 2012.
Of course, like pretty much everyone else, I'm almost guaranteed to be wrong.
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