The Uncle Heatster Post-Long, Post-Allen first round

[BradyToMoss]

To be honest, I don't think the Rat could give Clemens away for a dirty, rolled up ball of hockey tape if he tried. I like you're idea of the deal up Heatster, but honestly, if the Falcons are that stupid to take on that nightmare of a project in Kellen Clemens, then I guess we'll all know why year in and year out, they carry a top 5 draft pick in this league. Clemens is a stiff, the guy can't play in this league. PERIOD.

 

[dryheat44]

To be honest, I don't think the Rat could give Clemens away for a dirty, rolled up ball of hockey tape if he tried. I like you're idea of the deal up Heatster, but honestly, if the Falcons are that stupid to take on that nightmare of a project in Kellen Clemens, then I guess we'll all know why year in and year out, they carry a top 5 draft pick in this league. Clemens is a stiff, the guy can't play in this league. PERIOD.

Wow...I disagree. I think he showed enough behind an absolute dogsh!t Offensive line last year to think he still has a chance to be at the least low-end starter/top-end backup in this league. I also think he'd instantly be Atlanta's best QB (damning with faint praise?) Nightmare of a project? Oof...that has to hurt.

 

[SunnyDenmark]

Ben Rothlesburger?

Good Answer. (in response to my earlier question about when was the last time a rookie QB lite the world on fire). I forgot about big BEN.

However in comparison to my belief that it is much more likely for a rookie RB to lite the world on fire (than a rookie QB). check this out...

Every year has at least one (if not more) rookie RB's make immediate impact (>1000 yards).

Yr / RB name / team / yards / av YPC / TD's
2007 Adrian Pedersen Vikings 1,341 5.6 12
2007 Marshawn Lynch Buffalo 1,115 4.0 7
2006 Joseph Addai Colts 1081 4.8 19
2005 'Cadillac' Williams Tampa 1178 4.1 6

My data for 2005 & 2006 might be incomplete for rookie rushers over 1,000 yards.

2004 Kevin Jones Detroit 1,133 4.7 5
2003 Domanick Davis Houston 1,031 4.3 8
2002 Clinton Portis Denver 1,508 5.5 15
2001 LaDainian Tomlinson San Diego 1,236 3.6 10
2001 Anthony Thomas Chicago 1,183 4.3 7
2001 Dominic Rhodes Indianapolis 1,104 4.7 9
2000 Mike Anderson Denver 1,487 5.0 15
2000 Jamal Lewis Baltimore 1,364 4.4 6
1999 Edgerrin James Indianapolis 1,553 4.2 13
1999 Olandis Gary Denver 1,159 4.2 7
1998 Fred Taylor Jacksonville 1,223 4.6 14
1998 Robert Edwards New England 1,115 3.8 9
1997 Corey Dillon Cincinnati 1,129 4.8 10
1996 Eddie George Houston 1,368 4.1 8
1996 Karim Abdul-Jabbar Miami 1,116 3.6 11
1995 Curtis Martin New England 1,487 4.0 14
1995 Terrell Davis Denver 1,117 4.7 7
1995 Rashaan Salaam Chicago 1,074 3.6 10
1994 Marshall Faulk Indianapolis 1,282 4.1 11
1994 Errict Rhett Tampa Bay 1,011 3.6 7

Just want to say that I think if the Jets were to move up - I see it much more likely to take McFadden rather than Ryan as they are in a win NOW mode (free agency $$ acquisitions of veterans and to take heat off Mangini or else he could be out of a job)

 

[dryheat44]

Good Answer. (in response to my earlier question about when was the last time a rookie QB lite the world on fire). I forgot about big BEN.

However in comparison to my belief that it is much more likely for a rookie RB to lite the world on fire (than a rookie QB). check this out...

Every year has at least one (if not more) rookie RB's make immediate impact (>1000 yards).

Yr / RB name / team / yards / av YPC / TD's
2007 Adrian Pedersen Vikings 1,341 5.6 12
2007 Marshawn Lynch Buffalo 1,115 4.0 7
2006 Joseph Addai Colts 1081 4.8 19
2005 'Cadillac' Williams Tampa 1178 4.1 6

My data for 2005 & 2006 might be incomplete for rookie rushers over 1,000 yards.

2004 Kevin Jones Detroit 1,133 4.7 5
2003 Domanick Davis Houston 1,031 4.3 8
2002 Clinton Portis Denver 1,508 5.5 15
2001 LaDainian Tomlinson San Diego 1,236 3.6 10
2001 Anthony Thomas Chicago 1,183 4.3 7
2001 Dominic Rhodes Indianapolis 1,104 4.7 9
2000 Mike Anderson Denver 1,487 5.0 15
2000 Jamal Lewis Baltimore 1,364 4.4 6
1999 Edgerrin James Indianapolis 1,553 4.2 13
1999 Olandis Gary Denver 1,159 4.2 7
1998 Fred Taylor Jacksonville 1,223 4.6 14
1998 Robert Edwards New England 1,115 3.8 9
1997 Corey Dillon Cincinnati 1,129 4.8 10
1996 Eddie George Houston 1,368 4.1 8
1996 Karim Abdul-Jabbar Miami 1,116 3.6 11
1995 Curtis Martin New England 1,487 4.0 14
1995 Terrell Davis Denver 1,117 4.7 7
1995 Rashaan Salaam Chicago 1,074 3.6 10
1994 Marshall Faulk Indianapolis 1,282 4.1 11
1994 Errict Rhett Tampa Bay 1,011 3.6 7

Well, 1000 yards, yes. Is that really impressive anymore? Using your list, Williams, D Davis, ....actually I have to run to catch my train so I don't have time to list, but many of those guys busted out of the league within a couple of years...either because of injuries or just not good enough. Now, if it's a fourth-sixth round pick, which I think Olandis Gary was, big deal. But when it's a first round pick, be it Robert Edwards, Cadillac Williams, Curtis Enis, or Rashaan Salaam, that sets a franchise back a ways. RB is probably the position a rookie is most equipped to come in and play. It's also the highest bust rate for a position that is becoming increasingly more fungible.

 

[PatsandTrojans55]

Heatster,

I don't know if you noticed my last post on the "Official Patriots private workouts" thread I posted 3 days or so ago? I mentioned the name Tony Hills the Texas G/T as a prospect the Patriots are looking at.

I say this because I noticed today Todd McShay's full 7 round mock (published today by the way) and who does he have the Patriots taking in round 4 right there at pick #129? You guessed it Tony Hills! Wonder where he got his tip from when Tony hasn't been a consideration?


The mock is free to view for all.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draf...ory?columnist=mcshay_todd&page=mcshaymock0423

PT55

 

[SunnyDenmark]

Well, 1000 yards, yes. Is that really impressive anymore? Using your list, Williams, D Davis, ....actually I have to run to catch my train so I don't have time to list, but many of those guys busted out of the league within a couple of years...either because of injuries or just not good enough. Now, if it's a fourth-sixth round pick, which I think Olandis Gary was, big deal. But when it's a first round pick, be it Robert Edwards, Cadillac Williams, Curtis Enis, or Rashaan Salaam, that sets a franchise back a ways. RB is probably the position a rookie is most equipped to come in and play. It's also the highest bust rate for a position that is becoming increasingly more fungible.

Hope you made your train ok. Common that many guys are out of the league after only a couple of years as that is the average rate (life expectancy) of an NFL'er. 2-3 years for many positions.
True as you say as many do (Dr Z. among others), that RB is a good position for a rookie to be productive right from the get go. Not sure though that it is the highest bust rate - I would think that QB and WR would be right up there.

Honestly, I personally don't think McFadden is the next Adrian Peterson. Besides the character issues, he fumbles ALOT and we all know at the NFL level how important turnovers are. Remember how mad we would get early in Kevin Faulks career when he would loose one (fumble). I would NOT take him in the top 5 picks and not even sure in the top 10. As you well said, lot of other talent at RB this draft and good choices in the top 2-3 rounds at least. STILL, it doesnt explain why the Jets (if true) would move up to take a QB that in all likelyhood (as with all rookie QB's) will go through 1-2 years growing pains when the team has just acquired many big $$ veteran FA's to win now. Makes much more sense to me from my comfy lazy boy in lovely Denmark to take a much higher chance of a rookie RB rushing for 1000+ yards , than trying to hope Ryan wont suffer all rookie QB blues (Rothesburger being a very rare exception). Mangini needs to save his own butt now or with another sub .500 season - he could easily be gone.

Besides that though - I DO like your posts - your posts are a must read in my book and you bring alot to the table. And I will be the first to apologize if Jets do take Ryan. I am hoping the Pats take your mock to heart and trade down a few times in the first round. Pats have made some pretty good late first round picks during this administration.

Cheers and Beers.

 

[jeffbiologist]

In this game of poker we now have to assume ATL is bluffing. With only 1 pick between them and their guy, with a bevy of picks to make SURE Dimitroff GETS HIS GUY....there arent ANY rumors of them trading UP. That to me says that them wanting Dorsey is a smokescreen, and their next obvious target would be "new face of the franchise" Ryan. Maybe they think they can trade back to 5 or want out completely....but there is no way Dorsey is their guy.
The talk about the Jets trading up is rubbish, there is no way they can get him with our without Clemens. That will screw up your whole board I know,sorry DH. But doesnt that make the most sense??
And I like that saying "if you have 2-3 QBs you dont have ANY QBs".

 

[VJCPatriot]

Despite that, why would atlanta even want clemens? I guarantee you they would ask (and maybe receive) more than that. In my mind clemens isn't worth anything at the moment. Atlanta needs A LOT of players, I don't see them getting one future low round pick and a potential backup QB (they already have 3 of those).

I've got to agree. A 5th round pick and Clemens is useless for the Falcons. They'll want at least the Jets 2nd round pick to do this deal. Think about it, what will sell more TIX for Atlanta, a new face of the franchise in Matt Ryan... or a boring OT selection and Clemens. Yeah that's financial suicide. Good for the JETS, horrible for Atlanta.

With Atlanta's plethora of second round picks, they can easily move up to the late 1st and draft a solid OT like Cherilus. So I just don't see this deal working unless the Jets give up MORE.

 

[mcsully]

8. PROJECTED TRADE -- The Ravens trade the #8 and #38 picks to Dallas for the #22, #28, and #61 picks. The Cowboys select Darren McFadden RB Arkansas. I've said all along that Dallas's interest in McFadden was overblown, but Jerry Jones might be willing to go as high as #8 to grab him. And MBIII still waits his turn to become a future back. The two late first rounders leave Baltimore in excellent shape to pluck a fine QB and CB.

PLease stop the insanity.. The cowboys are not trading up for McFadden..

1. They are offering Barber 30 million (not going to have two high priced backs)
2. They have need at corner and WR.. (even with the pacman trade, who knows if or when he'll be reinstated)
3. The draft is deep with RB, not going to happen.

 

[alvinnf]

What would atlanta do at six if C.Long is still on the board. Q.Groves, why?

 

[dhamz]

PLease stop the insanity.. The cowboys are not trading up for McFadden..

1. They are offering Barber 30 million (not going to have two high priced backs)
2. They have need at corner and WR.. (even with the pacman trade, who knows if or when he'll be reinstated)
3. The draft is deep with RB, not going to happen.

While I don't disagree that the Cowboys are not going to trade for McFadden, #1 is a reason they might. Barber's agents countered with offers worth 40m and 60m making a long term deal look pretty unlikely at this point.

 

[VJCPatriot]

If we get Groves and Cason out of the first day of the draft, I'd be pretty satisfied with that. There's just a few trades that I don't see happening, but it's all guesswork at this point anyways.

 

[tjones7]

at #19 i would prefer the patriots to get DRC and then trade up above Jacksonville (really want Groves) to get Groves or just stay at #27 and get Avril

So it would look like this:

#19- DRC
#20-25 Groves
Anything after #26-Avril

 

[DW Toys]

1. Miami - Jake Long OT Michigan. Dolphins go the safe route. Can't blame them.

2. St. Louis - Glenn Dorsey DT LSU -- Some mocks have him falling due to injury concerns, but I don't see it. He came back from leg injury to play productively last season. He's a great player and will allow Haslett to move Carriker out to DE, vastly improving two DL spots. The other option is Chris Long, and it comes down to whether the Rams would rather line up with a T/E combo of Carriker-Long or Dorsey-Carriker. I think the latter is far superior.

3. PROJECTED TRADE - Atlanta trades the #3 pick to the New York Jets for the #6 pick, a 2009 5th rounder, and QB Kellen Clemens. The Jets select Matt Ryan QB Boston College. I think in the end, the Jets are going to decide that Ryan's upside is too good to pass up, and well worth the modest trade forward. Pennington can play QB for the first few months, or until he gets hurt again, while Ryan sits and learns how to prepare to be a successful NFL QB. Ryan also brings a fresh face to the franchise and will get fans excited for the New New York Jets. Atlanta gets to drop down a few slots where a lineman makes more sense, and picks up a QB that at the very least will be a competent backup. Remember that the QBs on the roster are Joe Harrington, DJ Shockley, and Chris Redman. I think more than 1 QB can safely be added. Harrington/Clemens/2nd round draft pick is a big improvement.

4. Oakland - Chris Long DE Virginia -- Most mocks have Darren McFadden going here, because of Al's supposed fascination with speed. This isn't the late 70s, though, and it seems that almost every "skill" position player in the draft has speed to burn. And who says "skill" positions are the exclusive domain of the offense? I know that it would kill Al Davis to have the son of one of his favorite players line up against his team twice a year wearing the colors of the hated Chiefs, which will almost certainly happen if they pass on Long. I know that Justin Fargas didn't receive a "back-up" contract earlier this year. And I know that Weird Al doesn't want to go out of his way to give Lane Kiffin weapons on offense.

5. Kansas City - Vernon Gholston DE Ohio St -- The Chiefs have put the word out that they're enamored with Otah, but he won't be the pick here. However, with the trade of Jared Allen, rush end becomes a big priority. Gholston fits perfectly here. Some say he's a risky pick, but really, is he any more risky than putting your faith in Allen staying sober and out of legal trouble?

6. Atlanta -- Ryan Clady OT Boise St -- Atlanta needs to beef up their offensive line before they can look to QB. Dimitroff will gladly snatch up the best LT prospect in the draft and pencil him in the starting lineup.

7. PROJECTED TRADE -- The Patriots trade the #7 pick to Cincinnati for #9 & #77. The Bengals select Sedric Ellis DT USC. You can argue that Cincinnati, New Orleans, and Charlotte all have DT as their top need. You really can't argue that after Sedric Ellis, there's a bit of a drop-off in quality of interior linemen. The Bengals have a comp pick in the third round, which could free up their other third-round pick to be traded, as it is here.

8. PROJECTED TRADE -- The Ravens trade the #8 and #38 picks to Dallas for the #22, #28, and #61 picks. The Cowboys select Darren McFadden RB Arkansas. I've said all along that Dallas's interest in McFadden was overblown, but Jerry Jones might be willing to go as high as #8 to grab him. And MBIII still waits his turn to become a future back. The two late first rounders leave Baltimore in excellent shape to pluck a fine QB and CB.

9. PROJECTED TRADE -- The Patriots trade the #9 pick to Philadelphia for the #19 and #49 picks. The Eagles select Brandon Albert OL Virginia. It seems the race is on to trade up for an offensive guard. I never claimed I understood the draft process, but it seems several teams are drooling over the big fella, including Philly, who may be eyeing a replacement for the rapidly aging Jon Runyan. The Eagles would likely be dangling CB Lito Sheppard as bait to move up, but unless they can quickly agree to a new contract, the Patriots wouldn't be interested. Expect Sheppard to be dealt later in order to recoup that second-round pick.

10. New Orleans - Leodis McKelvin CB Troy -- New Orleans have addressed their CB needs somewhat, but still have some work to do. McKelvin also brings some serious punt return skills to the table, which will reduce the burden on #25.

11. Buffalo -- Keith Rivers LB USC -- Rivers and a healthy Posluzny give the Bills two dynamic young LBs that will be the centerpiece of the defense into the next decade.

12. Denver -- Chris Williams OT Vanderbilt -- I think the Broncos would be ecstatic to trade out of this pick, but I'm not sure who's out there that's worth trading up for. I'm not sure that Williams is the best fit for a zone-blocking team, but he's the best left tackle prospect left in the draft, and there's a big hole there for the Broncos.

13. Carolina - Jerod Mayo LB Tennessee -- This is another spot where a trade down would be beneficial, but if one isn't out there, this could be a nice spot to take a talented guy in the middle of the defense. Mayo could be the guy that Morgan could've been.

14. Chicago - Devin Thomas WR Michigan St -- Chicago needs RB help, but the Bears have more pressing needs, and this draft is deep in running backs. The Bears lost their top two receiving threats last month, which means their top returning WR is....Devin Hester? Rashied Davis? Mark Bradley? Marty Booker is a competent #2, but at some point the Bears need to add someone with real WR potential. Whomever the QB is going to be doesn't really have much chance for success until the Bears upgrade. Thomas is a WR that can do whatever you need him to.

15. Detroit - Jonathan Stewart RB Oregon -- If I may borrow from myself, Stewart could be the guy that Kevin Jones could've been. He has the size, the speed, and the hands to be a do-all back for Coach Marinelli. I don't know if the Lions want another running back with foot problems, but I do know they don't want to go into the season with Tatum Bell and Brian Calhoun as their primary running backs.

16. Arizona - Mike Jenkins CB South Florida -- Mendenhall is awfully tempting, and he'd be great in Arizona, but the Cardinals cannot afford to ignore their hole at corner any longer.

Don't agree with all but good job. A lot of work. Thank you. Very interesting. I like trade scenarios.
DW Toys

 

[DW Toys]

at #19 i would prefer the patriots to get DRC and then trade up above Jacksonville (really want Groves) to get Groves or just stay at #27 and get Avril

So it would look like this:

#19- DRC
#20-25 Groves
Anything after #26-Avril

I say #7 to the Ravens for Suggs even. Look at what an unproven would get at #7 and add some more dollars (some left over Colvin dollars).
Swap #62 for Sheppard (Eagles) pending contract and take CB Molden at the first third rounder and swap our last third rounder for Bobby Carpenter (Cowboys). All are young and will start sooner rather than later. Then maybe Zuttah, Cottam, Boyd, Hilee Taylor.
Rookies don't play here as much as elsewhere. These trades make us a much better team than 2007.
Why not Shockey? If he costs a two plus a safety (Sanders?) we draft a S in round three or four(Barrett). Before you nail this. Just think.
DW Toys

 

[PonyExpress]

My take as of tonight...

1. Mia: OT J Long
2. StL: DT Dorsey
3. Atl: DT S. Ellis
4. Oak: RB McFadden
5. KC: DE Gholston
6. NYJ: OLB C. Long
7. Carolina trades #13 and #43 to NE: QB Ryan
8. Balt: OT/OG B. Albert
9. Cinci: RB J. Stewart
10. NO: CB DRC
11. Buff: CB McKelvin
12. Denver: OT Clady
13. NE: ILB Mayo
14. Chi: OT Cherilus
15. Det: DE Harvey
16. Arizona: RB Mendenhall
17. KC: OT Otah
18. Hou: OT C. Williams
19. Phi: WR D. Thomas
20. TB: OLB K Rivers
21. Wash: DE L Jackson
22. Dallas: CB M. Jenkins
23. Pitt: DE K. Balmer
24. Ten: WR L. Sweed
25. Sea: DE P. Merling
26. Jax: DE Q. Groves
27: Mia, from SD: QB C. Henne
28: Dal: RB F. Jones
29: SF: WR D. Jackson
30: Pack: QB Brohm
31: NYG: S K. Phillips

Pats thru rd 3:
#13: Mayo
#43: Cason
#62: Avril
#69: Zuttah
#94: Okam

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

May I get a ruling from a capologist...where is NYJ's cap now, and how would the move from 6 to 3 impact their current cushion?

To my friends Sunny & Biggie: a more recent rookie QB example came last season in Buffalo. Unlike Dental Ben, who had a perennial playoff contender pinned around his loins, Trent Edwards carried a truly snake-bitten club to the doorstep of the playoffs with the questionable help of J.P. Losman. It may not have lit the world on fire, but it was one heck of a rookie season while under fire.

 

[dryheat44]

While I don't disagree that the Cowboys are not going to trade for McFadden, #1 is a reason they might. Barber's agents countered with offers worth 40m and 60m making a long term deal look pretty unlikely at this point.

Believe me, I've been saying all along that Jones would never trade up two first rounders picks for McFadden....but with the swap of seconds, it's more like 1 1/2. He (Jones) has said that he'd consider trading up if his player fell past the top 8.

But I agree with dhamz here....the Cowboys have offered MB3 a contract they know he won't accept, and in fact is mildly insulting. If anything, they've greased the skids for drafting a running back.

And I appreciate all the feedback, esp. the Jets/Falcons trade. I will modify it (slightly) when I post it to 199overall.com. I'll make the 2009 pick conditional, where the Falcons would get from a 1 to 3 depending on Clemens' performance, or something like that. I doubt Jets will trade their #2 without a #3 or #4. I suppose DeWayne Robertson will be moved at some point as well, could be part of moving up, or could be a separate trade to recoup some picks. Last I heard, they were asking a #5 and #6 from Denver.

 

[Mainefan]

I just want to say thanks to Uncle Heatster. Threads like this make me feel like I'm eavesdropping on GMs. They genuinely broaden and deepen my understanding of what's going on. I would also like to than Box O' Rocks, whom I greatly admire and have sorely missed.

 

[PonyExpress]

My take as of tonight...

1. Mia: OT J Long
2. StL: DT Dorsey: They don't believe CLong has the edge speed they need, and Gholston is too raw.
3. Atl: DT S. Ellis: Help in the trenches.
4. Oak: RB McFadden: Speed Kills.
5. KC: DE Gholston: Long is a base 4-3 DE, not the crash end needed to replace J Allen.
6. NYJ: OLB C. Long: too afraid to take the QB.
7. Carolina trades #13 and #43 to NE: QB Ryan. Pats extort mid 2nd rdr by playing them off Baltimore.
8. Balt: OT Clady. Ogden is out.
9. Cinci: RB J. Stewart. Offensive playmakers dropping like flies in Cinci.
10. NO: CB DRC. Not afriad to go small school.
11. Buff: CB McKelvin. Bills value special teams.
12. Denver: OLB Rivers. post Al Wilson LB corps needs renovation.
13. NE: ILB Mayo. More explosive, vicious and vocal version of D Harris.
14. Chi: OT/OG B Albert. O-line quickly has gone from strength to weakness.
15. Det: DE Harvey. No pass rush.
16. Arizona: RB Mendenhall. E James era over.
17. KC: OT Otah. Mauler Herm covets.
18. Hou: OT C. Williams. Tap dancer fits the zone scheme.
19. Phi: OT Cherilus. O-line gave up 49 sacks last season.
20. TB: QB Brohm. Gruden can't resist the West Coast prototype.
21. Wash: DE L Jackson. No pass rush.
22. Dallas: CB M. Jenkins. Pacman may never see the field.
23. Pitt: DE K. Balmer. The trenches are caving in on both sides of the ball
24. Ten: WR L. Sweed. V Young gets college bud to help out punchless Offense.
25. Sea: DE P. Merling. Value pick stocks already stout defense.
26. Jax: DE Q. Groves. Can't wait to unleash him against T. Ugoh
27: Mia, from SD: QB C. Henne: Misevaluation of overrated Qb based on arm strength.
28: Dal: RB F. Jones: speed complement to Barber.
29: SF: WR D. Thomas: Offense needs playmakers for Martz and Smith.
30: Pack: TE D. Keller: Ideal WC offense TE.
31: NYG: WR J. Hardy: P Burress won't get a new deal from NY.

Pats thru rd 3:
#13: Mayo
#43: Cason
#62: Avril
#69: Zuttah
#94: Okam