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The Uncle Heatster Post-Long, Post-Allen first round

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by dryheat44, Apr 23, 2008.

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  1. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #75 Jersey

    1. Miami - Jake Long OT Michigan. Dolphins go the safe route. Can't blame them.

    2. St. Louis - Glenn Dorsey DT LSU -- Some mocks have him falling due to injury concerns, but I don't see it. He came back from leg injury to play productively last season. He's a great player and will allow Haslett to move Carriker out to DE, vastly improving two DL spots. The other option is Chris Long, and it comes down to whether the Rams would rather line up with a T/E combo of Carriker-Long or Dorsey-Carriker. I think the latter is far superior.

    3. PROJECTED TRADE - Atlanta trades the #3 pick to the New York Jets for the #6 pick, a 2009 5th rounder, and QB Kellen Clemens. The Jets select Matt Ryan QB Boston College. I think in the end, the Jets are going to decide that Ryan's upside is too good to pass up, and well worth the modest trade forward. Pennington can play QB for the first few months, or until he gets hurt again, while Ryan sits and learns how to prepare to be a successful NFL QB. Ryan also brings a fresh face to the franchise and will get fans excited for the New New York Jets. Atlanta gets to drop down a few slots where a lineman makes more sense, and picks up a QB that at the very least will be a competent backup. Remember that the QBs on the roster are Joe Harrington, DJ Shockley, and Chris Redman. I think more than 1 QB can safely be added. Harrington/Clemens/2nd round draft pick is a big improvement.

    4. Oakland - Chris Long DE Virginia -- Most mocks have Darren McFadden going here, because of Al's supposed fascination with speed. This isn't the late 70s, though, and it seems that almost every "skill" position player in the draft has speed to burn. And who says "skill" positions are the exclusive domain of the offense? I know that it would kill Al Davis to have the son of one of his favorite players line up against his team twice a year wearing the colors of the hated Chiefs, which will almost certainly happen if they pass on Long. I know that Justin Fargas didn't receive a "back-up" contract earlier this year. And I know that Weird Al doesn't want to go out of his way to give Lane Kiffin weapons on offense.

    5. Kansas City - Vernon Gholston DE Ohio St -- The Chiefs have put the word out that they're enamored with Otah, but he won't be the pick here. However, with the trade of Jared Allen, rush end becomes a big priority. Gholston fits perfectly here. Some say he's a risky pick, but really, is he any more risky than putting your faith in Allen staying sober and out of legal trouble?

    6. Atlanta -- Ryan Clady OT Boise St -- Atlanta needs to beef up their offensive line before they can look to QB. Dimitroff will gladly snatch up the best LT prospect in the draft and pencil him in the starting lineup.

    7. PROJECTED TRADE -- The Patriots trade the #7 pick to Cincinnati for #9 & #77. The Bengals select Sedric Ellis DT USC. You can argue that Cincinnati, New Orleans, and Charlotte all have DT as their top need. You really can't argue that after Sedric Ellis, there's a bit of a drop-off in quality of interior linemen. The Bengals have a comp pick in the third round, which could free up their other third-round pick to be traded, as it is here.

    8. PROJECTED TRADE -- The Ravens trade the #8 and #38 picks to Dallas for the #22, #28, and #61 picks. The Cowboys select Darren McFadden RB Arkansas. I've said all along that Dallas's interest in McFadden was overblown, but Jerry Jones might be willing to go as high as #8 to grab him. And MBIII still waits his turn to become a future back. The two late first rounders leave Baltimore in excellent shape to pluck a fine QB and CB.

    9. PROJECTED TRADE -- The Patriots trade the #9 pick to Philadelphia for the #19 and #49 picks. The Eagles select Brandon Albert OL Virginia. It seems the race is on to trade up for an offensive guard. I never claimed I understood the draft process, but it seems several teams are drooling over the big fella, including Philly, who may be eyeing a replacement for the rapidly aging Jon Runyan. The Eagles would likely be dangling CB Lito Sheppard as bait to move up, but unless they can quickly agree to a new contract, the Patriots wouldn't be interested. Expect Sheppard to be dealt later in order to recoup that second-round pick.

    10. New Orleans - Leodis McKelvin CB Troy -- New Orleans have addressed their CB needs somewhat, but still have some work to do. McKelvin also brings some serious punt return skills to the table, which will reduce the burden on #25.

    11. Buffalo -- Keith Rivers LB USC -- Rivers and a healthy Posluzny give the Bills two dynamic young LBs that will be the centerpiece of the defense into the next decade.

    12. Denver -- Chris Williams OT Vanderbilt -- I think the Broncos would be ecstatic to trade out of this pick, but I'm not sure who's out there that's worth trading up for. I'm not sure that Williams is the best fit for a zone-blocking team, but he's the best left tackle prospect left in the draft, and there's a big hole there for the Broncos.

    13. Carolina - Jerod Mayo LB Tennessee -- This is another spot where a trade down would be beneficial, but if one isn't out there, this could be a nice spot to take a talented guy in the middle of the defense. Mayo could be the guy that Morgan could've been.

    14. Chicago - Devin Thomas WR Michigan St -- Chicago needs RB help, but the Bears have more pressing needs, and this draft is deep in running backs. The Bears lost their top two receiving threats last month, which means their top returning WR is....Devin Hester? Rashied Davis? Mark Bradley? Marty Booker is a competent #2, but at some point the Bears need to add someone with real WR potential. Whomever the QB is going to be doesn't really have much chance for success until the Bears upgrade. Thomas is a WR that can do whatever you need him to.

    15. Detroit - Jonathan Stewart RB Oregon -- If I may borrow from myself, Stewart could be the guy that Kevin Jones could've been. He has the size, the speed, and the hands to be a do-all back for Coach Marinelli. I don't know if the Lions want another running back with foot problems, but I do know they don't want to go into the season with Tatum Bell and Brian Calhoun as their primary running backs.

    16. Arizona - Mike Jenkins CB South Florida -- Mendenhall is awfully tempting, and he'd be great in Arizona, but the Cardinals cannot afford to ignore their hole at corner any longer.
     
    Last edited: Apr 23, 2008
  2. ALP

    ALP Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    the draft with philly u project is terrible for us...

    and if the jets move up, its defenetely to secure mcfadden
     
  3. makoute

    makoute In the Starting Line-Up

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    Didn't the vikings trade this years first for Allen.:confused: I do like the moves NE makes in there. I wouldn't mind if it happened like that, since I don't expect the player that I would like NE to draft at seven to be there.
     
    Last edited: Apr 23, 2008
  4. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    I'm fine with your opinion on the first matter.
    On the second, that would expose the Jets as one of the stupidest front offices in the league, and I don't believe they are. You move up to #3 to take a potential franchise QB. You don't move up to #3 to secure a part-time running back.
     
    Last edited: Apr 23, 2008
  5. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #75 Jersey

    SH!T....that's what I get for rushing this.

    17. PROJECTED TRADE -- Kansas City trades the #17 pick to Houston for the #18 and #118 picks. Houston selects Rashard Mendenhall RB Illinois. The Chiefs could take a player here but they can bluff Houston into trading up one spot to get the RB they need. The fourth rounder is a small price for Houston to pay in this spot.

    18. Kansas City - Jeff Otah OT Pittsburgh -- Otah's been Kansas City's guy all along, and the Chiefs come out of the first round with solutions for their problems at DE and RT. That's a good draft already.

    19. New England - Quentin Groves LB Auburn -- Truth be told, I'm torn here between Groves and Cason, but we know that the Patriots need a premier pass rusher, and Groves, at a minimum, will be him. He's been falling down draft boards a bit, but we know that Belichick doesn't have much use for the consensus. This is a good spot for him.

    20. Tampa Bay - DeSean Jackson WR California -- It's time for Gruden to bring in a big-play threat. Joey Galloway can still play in stretches, but he can't be heavily relied on any more.

    21. Washington - Derrick Harvey DE Florida -- The Redskins WR needs are well-documented, but there seems to be enough depth that they'll likely have some good options next round. Harvey gives them a needed pass-rusher that will contend for ROY. If it seems I wrote that last time and just substituted "Harvey" for "Merling", you're right. As part of the Jared Allen fall out, the Redskins get a better prospect.

    22. Baltimore - Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie CB Tennessee St.-- The Ravens get the athletic freak to come in and replace Samari Rolle, who got exposed as a Tampa-2 corner last year.

    23. Pittsburgh - Gosder Cherilus OT Boston College -- I don't know where his NFL position is going to ultimately be, but wherever it is, the Steelers have an opening there. You really can't go wrong with a BC lineman, and it takes some of the sting out of losing out on Albert and Otah.

    24. Tennessee - Phillip Merling DE Clemson -- So the Titans lost multiple DEs in the offseason. Adding Merling to Haynesworth and Vanderbosch results in a good-looking unit.

    25. Seattle - Limas Sweed WR Texas -- Julius Jones lessens the need for a first-round running back. DJ Hackett is gone, Deion Branch has sprained or tore something since I started typing, and Bobby Engram is another year older. Sweed gives the Hawks a shot of youth and production.

    26. Jacksonville - Kenny Phillips S Miami -- Jack Del Rio seems determined to make the Jags into an elite unit, and Phillips is an upgrade as the strong safety position.

    27. PROJECTED TRADE - San Diego trades the #27 pick to New England for the #49 and #62 picks. The Patriots select Antoine Cason CB Arizona. With only one pick in the first 4 rounds, expect AJ Smith to deal this pick. New England, using some ammo acquired from previous trades, snags the CB they covet. And both AFC rivals feels he got one over on the other.

    28. Baltimore Ravens - Brian Brohm QB Louisville -- The Ravens once again hope they've found their long-term quarterback of the future.

    29. San Francisco - Cliff Avril LB Purdue -- The 49ers need another pass rushing LB to make their 3-4 work, as Tully Banta Cain didn't get the job done last year. Avril also gives them a linebacker with some coverage ability. Slight reach, but perfect fit.

    30. PROJECTED TRADE - Green Bay trades the #30 pick to New Orleans for the #40 and #78 picks. The Saints select Kentwan Balmer DT North Carolina. . Green Bay will likely try to trade down, as this is too high to draft any of the remaining corners or any tight end. Balmer would be a good prize for the Saints.

    31. New York Giants - Tyrell Johnson S Arkansas St -- The more teams' scouts dig, the higher Johnson shoots up draft boards. This may be a slight reach for the Champs, but a solid roster with few holes allows them that luxury.
     
    Last edited: Apr 23, 2008
  6. rsd

    rsd On the Game Day Roster

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    I don't see why Atlanta would trade down to #6 for what they are getting. A 2009 5th rounder and Clemens may as well be a kick in the nuts...At minimum they should get a 3rd imho if not a 2nd (saying this this off the top of my head, not looking at any draft chart).
     
  7. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #75 Jersey

    Their also getting their target at a much friendlier financial slot.
     
  8. Metaphors

    Metaphors In the Starting Line-Up

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    "The Falcons trade the #3 pick to the Jets for the #6 pick and a kick in the nuts. Mr. Blank, could you please head up to the stage to complete the transaction?"
     
  9. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey

    While we await the revised version, let's chat about the big flashing excitement in this mock: the Jets trade.

    It will take some cahones for Mangini & Tannenbaum to trade their own recent 2nd-round QB for a shiny new QB. And if they're so willing to declare Clemens a failure, why should the Falcons be tempted?
     
  10. rsd

    rsd On the Game Day Roster

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    Despite that, why would atlanta even want clemens? I guarantee you they would ask (and maybe receive) more than that. In my mind clemens isn't worth anything at the moment. Atlanta needs A LOT of players, I don't see them getting one future low round pick and a potential backup QB (they already have 3 of those).
     
  11. rsd

    rsd On the Game Day Roster

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    :D


    (10 chars)
     
  12. mike100915

    mike100915 On the Game Day Roster

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    Patriots would take Harvey over Groves.
     
  13. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #75 Jersey

    Version has been revised above. The way I see it, and maybe I'm going about it the wrong way, The move up from #6 to #3 in the revised chart is worth the equivalent of an early third round pick. Certainly Clemens is worth that. And, if I'm not mistaken, Dimitroff liked last year. Perhaps more grease is needed.
     
  14. SunnyDenmark

    SunnyDenmark Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    thanks heatster - lots of good thought put into this.

    I also think that there will be lots of trades and I too see the Pats trading down twice in the first round (with either Cinci or NO for the 7th pick). Pretty gutsy to state all the trades so I admire your nerve.

    But I do have to debate two points:
    1) Supposidly there is a blood feud between Al Davis and Howie Long (reported by Don Banks SI). So that may put a crimp on Chris Long going to the Raiders. (On the other hand - Al may be happy to be holding Howies son 'hostage' for the next few years just to spite Howie).

    2) As far as the Jests moving up - I can easily see that. But as I posted in an another thread earlier today - I don't think it would be for Ryan but for McFadden. Reason being - why pay big $$$ for veterans on the downsides of their career (Fanica, Mike Jenkins, etc) which is a win -NOW mentality ; when you are just going to pick a rookie QB to re-build around. True, Ryan is NOT a mid-round developmental QB, on the other hand - in the NFL you can count on at least a 1 -2 year steep learning curve for a rookie QB. When was the last time a rookie QB lite the world on fire? On the other hand - a dynamic rookie RB CAN and recent history shows - has produced big numbers their rookie years (behind a good offensive line which it looks like the Jets have now built). If the Jets move up I don't think it will be for Ryan.

    Greetings from Denmark.
     
  15. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #75 Jersey

    Possibly. IMO, you're trading a better bill of health for a tougher transition.
     
  16. patsfan47

    patsfan47 Rookie

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    Groves and Cason are the two players I really want in this draft so this mock makes me very very happy. I think Cason is a stud in our system and Groves may be the best pass rusher in this draft, the fact that he is falling makes me very happy :)
     
  17. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #75 Jersey

    Greeting to Denmark.

    The short answer is that I feel (and I believe most GMs feel) that the OL makes the RB, not the other way around in 95% of the cases. I don't believe McFadden to be in that 5%, so to me it makes no sense to invest that much in a RB that won't give you much more than I guy you can draft later. In other words, if they want to draft a QB and RB with their first two picks, Matt Ryan and Felix Jones/Ray Rice/Matt Forte is a better option than Darren McFadden and Joe Flacco, Chad Henne, John Booty. I also believe Thomas Jones has a heck of a lot more in the tank than Chad Pennington....especially if the defense has to guard against the medium-to-deep pass.
     
  18. MrBigglesWorth

    MrBigglesWorth Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    Ben Rothlesburger?
     
  19. Ochmed Jones

    Ochmed Jones Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #12 Jersey

    Dryheat, I love it. I am in favor of anything that gets us a premier pass rusher and a solid CB on the new revised day 1.

    I am still concerned about Grove's heart valve issue, but I love the thought of a healthy Groves lining up outside of a healthier Seymour's shoulder on third and long and BB just feeding the rookie the jet fuel.

    The opposing OT has a hard choice on his hands.
     
  20. sebman2112

    sebman2112 In the Starting Line-Up

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    Maybe a little trade heavy at the top...
     
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