JETS will Pursuit Samuel HARD

[Metaphors]

NFL GM's disagree. here are the new franchise figures

Cornerback 9.465

Thus my Denver and San Francisco comment. Teams are willing to pay for CB's, but has that translated into team success? I don't want to go team-by-team (and you probably don't want me to) but I'm willing to bet that the new formula for success involves young, inexpensive CB's surrounded by a strong supporting cast.

 

[Watson's IQ]

sure it does. if a position is less valuable, the best players at that position will make less money, especially in the salary cap nfl where there is finite money to be spread amongst the team

This assumes that NFL GMs actually feel the CB position is less valuable.

No one is arguing that CBs are now interchangeable. Just look at the difference between the secondary the Pats just faced and the one they're about to face. It's night and day.

My point was that the ceiling has been lowered by the PI rules, to the point where the term "shutdown corner" is now obsolete.

Champ Bailey isn't worth marginally any less than Kevin Dockery (to pick on a Giants corner) than he was before the rules change, which is what I meant when I said the premium talent at CB still holds a lot of value, even if the ceiling has been lowered.

 

[makewayhomer]

Thus my Denver and San Francisco comment. Teams are willing to pay for CB's, but has that translated into team success? I don't want to go team-by-team (and you probably don't want me to) but I'm willing to bet that the new formula for success involves young, inexpensive CB's surrounded by a strong supporting cast.

I would say the ideal formula is to find young, inexpensive, and GOOD CB's. the last one being the most important. sometimes thats impossible, so you have to pay for it.

the Colts have managed to do this. the Pats basically have as well, (drafting Asante late, filling the other slot with rookie contracts)

ditto for the Chargers with Cromartie and Jammer.

 

[makewayhomer]

Champ Bailey isn't worth marginally any less than Kevin Dockery (to pick on a Giants corner) than he was before the rules change, which is what I meant when I said the premium talent at CB still holds a lot of value, even if the ceiling has been lowered.

but he would be if the rule changes were that significant.

take the example to an extreme. the NFL says tomorrow that CB's need to play blindfolded with their arms tied behind their back while hopping on 1 leg the entire game. in that scenario, Bailey would be worth the same as Dockery. both their ceiling would be lower (all CB's would be useless) and their relative values similar

the rule change would cause a massive valuation change.

in reality, what happened after 2003 was a stricter enforcement of PI, but the values of top CB's have remained very high, while the values of middling guys remains lower

 

[Watson's IQ]

but he would be if the rule changes were that significant.

take the example to an extreme. the NFL says tomorrow that CB's need to play blindfolded with their arms tied behind their back while hopping on 1 leg the entire game. in that scenario, Bailey would be worth the same as Dockery. both their ceiling would be lower (all CB's would be useless) and their relative values similar

Yes, but that isn't the case, and you are drawing the metaphor too far. There are plenty of other skills which a CB possesses other than the ability to disrupt a receiver down the field, which is what the rules affect. Quick release, route recognition, ability to jam at the line, hands, on and on. The rules have limited what corners can do physically, which has constrained what they're ALL able to do, but it hasn't made those who are good at other things any less good at them, and those who aren't any better.

 

[Patriot_in_NY]

I heard on WQAM (a South Florida sports talk radio station) that Parcells is enamored with Samuel, and that Samuel would love to come home to SoFla (he grew up in Lauderdale Lakes and attended Boyd Anderson High School).

Logistically, it would make sense, and the Dolphins will be "whacking" some cureent players under new head coach Tony Soprano and his assistant coaches, Paulie Walnuts, Silvio Dante, Chrissy Moltisanti, Bobby Bacala, Vito Spatafore, Furio Giunta, Big P u s s y Bonpensiero & Hesh Rabkin.

....... and with Joey Bagadonuts coming in as the DB coach, they are sure to make him an offer he can't refuse

 

[WhiZa]

Plus the Jets already have Revis at a very very reasonable price as he still has several years left on his rookie contract. So you can argue that they are overpaying Samuel, but they might not be overpaying for the combination of Samuel and Revis.

I'm not so sure how "very very" reasonable it is. He was definitely overpaid for the pick he was drafted in. The bottom line is the players who play on the LOS are just atrocious. Let the Jests spend all of their money on the DBs to try and cover Moss, and Maroney/Morris/Welker/Watson will have a field day. This situation is similar to Denver last year, and look how they did.

 

[Metaphors]

in reality, what happened after 2003 was a stricter enforcement of PI, but the values of top CB's have remained very high, while the values of middling guys remains lower

I think this is too simplistic. The rules "emphasis" forced corners to run and cover longer. The constant PI calls on deep passes makes not having safeties over the top too risky.

So the question isn't about the relative value of Champ Bailey vs. Carlos Rogers. It is the combined value of Champ Bailey and John Lynch vs. Carlos Rogers and LaRon Landry. Or you can add a pass rusher to the equation and compare Bailey/Lynch/Dumerville vs. Rogers/Landry/Carter.

The only reason I chose the Redskins/Broncos example is because of the Champ Bailey dynamic. There are probably better examples, but you can see where I'm going with this.

 

[Remix 6]

Yeah? Deion Branch says HI!

Let them throw cap money at Asante Samuel. He is not worth what he's making even this year ($7 million +).

He only plays one side of the field. A truly great CB can play both sides and shut down the opposing #1 WR.

I have seen Asante have a B+ year this year (and that is being generous).

If the Pats can save the $7 million+ on the cap, I'd be happy for them to go after 2 solid CB's at $3- 3.5 each.......and use that #7 pick on the Franchise ILB of the future.

oh is that so? first off, Branch never got over 1000 yards here and he was hurt quiet a bit. At that time, $7/yr was very expensive (before the new cap increase).

only 1 side of field? So does Champ Bailey. We dont play man as much as we do zone so why switch sides? incase u dont remember, half of last season he was the right corner and then went back to left. excelled at both. its like saying Marvin Harrison was not a great WR because he only played right side. Bailey doesnt switch sides..why? Unless the WR will absolutely abuse the other CB all game long, then why match him up every time in a zone D?

B+ generous? are u serious? him and Wilfork have been the key to our D success. Samuel played great all year long as did Wilfork..consistently and maybe you can say Vrabel as well.

So a true great CB CAN play both sides? We have one then..because he did both and excelled at both. If this was primarily a man defense..you might see more 1on1 with him following the WR

2 CBs for $3.5? not gonna happen. Jason David is making at least $4 mill per year on Saints.Not very good.

The top CBs are getting paid..and thats how it is in NFL. you pay the guys that are in the elite category in this case, Bailey/Samuel/Asomugha/Clements are all elite. If BB didnt think so ..why did he offer him so much money in first place? Over $7/year .. didnt work out with guaranteed money so we ended up franchising him. Franchise tag is used on your great players that you dont want to let go..and thats the case.

You tell me when you find CB who once had a streak of pick 6s in playoffs. A CB that had 10 INTs then 6 when he was seldom thrown @. Hes excelled here whether its his skill or the defense scheme. Why isnt Hobbs performing that well? Or Gay? How come they as good as Samuel if its that easy to play here?

blame his talent on pass rush but look @ the Saints. Grant and Smith have been great and guess what..their secondary blows with McKenzie, David, Thomas @ CB.

BB said it himself. In this league, you need 3 good corners. We have that if you compare it to rest of league. If a team like the Patriots came out and played with 3-4 very good WRs and spread you out. You wont get away with average guys. You can draft a rookie..but not all rookies make immediate impacts and not all pan out in their career. Its such a big risk if you let a guy like Samuel walk when hes a young playmaker.

 

[aluminum seats]

Ive been thinking about this as a separate thread, but it probably belongs here. At some point shouldn't the Patriots' overwhelming success begin to affect how teams respond to the Pats' free agents? Look at the title of this thread and the article it links to--how the Jets will "go after" Samuel, which of course just means they'll be willing to offer a significantly bigger contract than the Patriots will.

Well, wouldn't that bring you up short if you were a GM? Let's see: the team that is on the verge of winning its 4th SB this decade will make the determination that they will not pay a player past a certain amount.....if you decide YOU will, doesn't that mean that you think the Patriots braintrust is wrong? And while not impossible, wouldn't that seem like a bit of a stretch considering your relative LACK of success? People are stupid.

 

[shmessy]

all the advanced metrics say otherwise. his success rate and yards allowed/pass are elite

here are the stats through week 13, courtesy of football outsiders

Best Success Rate

Charles Woodson, GB: 70%
Roderick Hood, ARI: 66%
Fakhir Brown, STL: 65%
Mike McKenzie, NO: 64%
Anthony Henry, DAL: 63%
Jabari Greer, BUF: 63%
Dunta Robinson, HOU: 63%
Richard Marshall, CAR: 63%
Champ Bailey, DEN: 63%
Will Allen, MIA: 62%
Asante Samuel, NE: 62%

Best Yards per Pass

Roderick Hood, ARI: 4.3
Asante Samuel, NE: 4.5
Will Allen, MIA: 4.5
Terrence Newman, DAL: 4.7
Jabari Greer, BUF: 5.0
Terrence McGee, BUF: 5.0
Mike McKenzie, NO: 5.5
Tye Hill, STL: 5.8
Jason Craft, NO: 5.9
Anthony Henry, DAL: 6.0
Deshea Townsend, PIT: 6.0
Jarrod Bush, GB: 6.0

also, I think we should stop acting like Asante is just the product of an amazing system. the Pats defense is good, no doubt, but it's far from amazing. and you could argue he's as responsible for that as he benefits from that

also I have the 2006 #'s at home, I'm pretty sure Asante was just as good in 2006

Let's put your stats in perspective here: According to them, someone named Roderick Hood (yes, that Roderick Hood?????) is the best CB in football.

According to those two areas, Champ Bailey ranks #9 in the first and not even in the top 12 on the second.

Is he not in the top 3 on EVERYONE'S list of CB's?

Kind of puts those "stats" in perspective.

 

[shmessy]

Because as I said earlier, I don't think the term "shutdown" corner is even applicable in the NFL anymore with the new PI rules.

See the stats above, those were the ones I was referring to from Football Outsiders. Asante is "elite" now, by what the current definition of elite is, whether he's good enough to deserve that kind of salary is another matter.

Yes, but if you look at those "stats", can you say he is even in the "LEGENDARY" Roderick Hood's league?

 

[Metaphors]

only 1 side of field? So does Champ Bailey. We dont play man as much as we do zone so why switch sides? incase u dont remember, half of last season he was the right corner and then went back to left. excelled at both. its like saying Marvin Harrison was not a great WR because he only played right side. Bailey doesnt switch sides..why? Unless the WR will absolutely abuse the other CB all game long, then why match him up every time in a zone D?

How has Bailey's season been with no pass rush and horrific safety play? Pretty good (very good considering the supporting cast) but the overall defense is terrible. Why hire a chaffeur to drive your 1989 minivan?

B+ generous? are u serious? him and Wilfork have been the key to our D success. Samuel played great all year long as did Wilfork..consistently and maybe you can say Vrabel as well.

Samuel has made big plays, but he has been inconsistent and has disappeared at time (Ravens and Eagles games pop to mind). Sounds like a B to B+ to me.

2 CBs for $3.5? not gonna happen. Jason David is making at least $4 mill per year on Saints.Not very good.

That is why you draft them and let them walk after 4-5 years. You can always find a veteran at the end of FA to fill in the gaps.

The top CBs are getting paid..and thats how it is in NFL. you pay the guys that are in the elite category in this case, Bailey/Samuel/Asomugha/Clements are all elite. If BB didnt think so ..why did he offer him so much money in first place? Over $7/year .. didnt work out with guaranteed money so we ended up franchising him. Franchise tag is used on your great players that you dont want to let go..and thats the case.

How did Denver and SF do this year? Baltimore has high-priced corners. How bout them? Any teams buy an "elite" FA corner recently that hasn't lived to regret it?

You tell me when you find CB who once had a streak of pick 6s in playoffs. A CB that had 10 INTs then 6 when he was seldom thrown @. Hes excelled here whether its his skill or the defense scheme. Why isnt Hobbs performing that well? Or Gay? How come they as good as Samuel if its that easy to play here?

Hobbs and Gay aren't as good. However, they have done well enough at what they've been asked to do that the team is undefeated. Samuel is asked to do different things and has done a great job. No complaints here.

blame his talent on pass rush but look @ the Saints. Grant and Smith have been great and guess what..their secondary blows with McKenzie, David, Thomas @ CB.

McKenzie and David were high-priced cornerbacks that were let go by the teams where they had success. Think GB and Indy are having second thoughts? I'm not sure this is a great example why you re-sign Asante.

BB said it himself. In this league, you need 3 good corners. We have that if you compare it to rest of league. If a team like the Patriots came out and played with 3-4 very good WRs and spread you out. You wont get away with average guys. You can draft a rookie..but not all rookies make immediate impacts and not all pan out in their career. Its such a big risk if you let a guy like Samuel walk when hes a young playmaker.

3 good corners. Not 1 "elite" corner and 2 good corners. It all depends on what you ask your corners to do. If you isolate them on a WR and ask them to run and cover, then you better spend the dough to get a guy who can do that. Belichick (and the other coaches of teams I like to call "contenders") don't do that because it is foolish.

Asante is great and he is worth every penny that he is going to get in FA. Just not for the Pats or any other team that wants to compete for a championship.

 

[Remix 6]

Let's put your stats in perspective here: According to them, someone named Roderick Hood (yes, that Roderick Hood?????) is the best CB in football.

According to those two areas, Champ Bailey ranks #9 in the first and not even in the top 12 on the second.

Is he not in the top 3 on EVERYONE'S list of CB's?

Kind of puts those "stats" in perspective.

take in mind the more you get thrown @, the better the #s could be. If he gets thrown @ 100 times but all short gains..his average will play out for him compared to a guy like Bailey who gets thrown @ a lot less but maybe gives up 1 long play that ruins his average.

 

[shmessy]

This assumes that NFL GMs actually feel the CB position is less valuable.

No one is arguing that CBs are now interchangeable. Just look at the difference between the secondary the Pats just faced and the one they're about to face. It's night and day.

My point was that the ceiling has been lowered by the PI rules, to the point where the term "shutdown corner" is now obsolete.

Champ Bailey isn't worth marginally any less than Kevin Dockery (to pick on a Giants corner) than he was before the rules change, which is what I meant when I said the premium talent at CB still holds a lot of value, even if the ceiling has been lowered.

According to your stats, he's worth a HELLUVA lot less than some fellow named Roderick Hood.

Please, toss those stats.

 

[shmessy]

take in mind the more you get thrown @, the better the #s could be. If he gets thrown @ 100 times but all short gains..his average will play out for him compared to a guy like Bailey who gets thrown @ a lot less but maybe gives up 1 long play that ruins his average.

EXACTLY.

Which is why those two statistical tables previous mentioned are completely WORTHLESS to this discussion.

Hell, after looking at those two charts, someone please tell me who this Legendary Roderick Hill is!!!!!!!!!

 

[Remix 6]

Samuel has made big plays, but he has been inconsistent and has disappeared at time (Ravens and Eagles games pop to mind). Sounds like a B to B+ to me.

That is why you draft them and let them walk after 4-5 years. You can always find a veteran at the end of FA to fill in the gaps.


How did Denver and SF do this year? Baltimore has high-priced corners. How bout them? Any teams buy an "elite" FA corner recently that hasn't lived to regret it?

Hobbs and Gay aren't as good. However, they have done well enough at what they've been asked to do that the team is undefeated. Samuel is asked to do different things and has done a great job. No complaints here.

McKenzie and David were high-priced cornerbacks that were let go by the teams where they had success. Think GB and Indy are having second thoughts? I'm not sure this is a great example why you re-sign Asante.

3good corners. Not 1 "elite" corner and 2 good corners. It all depends on what you ask your corners to do. If you isolate them on a WR and ask them to run and cover, then you better spend the dough to get a guy who can do that. Belichick (and the other coaches of teams I like to call "contenders") don't do that because it is foolish.

Asante is great and he is worth every penny that he is going to get in FA. Just not for the Pats or any other team that wants to compete for a championship.

he basically won the Eagles game for us first of all..and how many completions did he let up against Ravens? 1 or 2 to Derrick Mason. Even if he doesnt get a single tackle or an INT..doesnt mean hes not playing well..watching the game, you can see why he doesnt get thrown @ while Hobbs does.

Good luck finding a veteran this year anywhere near as good as Samuel. Expect Trufant and Asomugha to be franchised and make just as much if not more money than Samuel because the tag.

Poor example of asking how Ravens did with 2 high priced CBs. Both were hurt majority of the year. How about when healthy? Playoffs? Their whole D led them. Has a team bought an elite CB that hasnt regret it? Sure..49ers dont regret signing Clements because he played very well for them. Im sure they wish they had 11 Patrick Willis's and 11 Nate Clement's on their team. It was 2 man team..3 when Gore played well.

Why would Packers have second thoughts? They went out and got Charles Woodson who was a bigger risk but a better player and they had Al Harris. They had 2 very good CBs at the time. Indy? They could care less..they know David wasnt worth his price and i honestly laughed @ Saints when they decided to get David for that price.

Your missing point about switching sides and playing man. Its our scheme. Were a zone scheme. Look @ the cover 2 teams..they dont follow their WRs because its ZONE. its what the defense is built for, what the coaches want. We've seen Samuel play man..didnt switch sides but he played man on Chad Johnson when he was on his side. He had 65 yards or so but 2 catches were on Hobbs for bigger gains.

^and poster above. Roderick Hood was the Eagles nickelback who played well there and got a starting job in Arizona. Hes a good player

 

[Metaphors]

According to your stats, he's worth a HELLUVA lot less than some fellow named Roderick Hood.

Please, toss those stats.

Hood has actually played really well the last couple of years. I know he is buried in the desert but he has been a solid contributer for one of the best young secondaries in the NFL.

 

[makewayhomer]

Yes, but if you look at those "stats", can you say he is even in the "LEGENDARY" Roderick Hood's league?

the fact that you don't know who a vastly underrated, small market CB is a YP, not an MP

(Your Problem, not My Problem)



those are exactly the type of signings that teams need. but, that doesn't mean that CB isn't important...it means that talent can be found in all kinds of places

here is a good Hood article, if you're an ESPN insider

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insider/columns/story?columnist=joyner_kc&id=2796737

"Roderick Hood -- Arizona Cardinals
Hood was a nickel cornerback for the Eagles, but his metrics the past three seasons indicate a player of starting-level quality:

Roderick Hood
Year Att Comp Yds TD INT Pen Yds YPA
2006 25 10 148 1 0 4 35 7.3
2005 57 26 316 3 3 1 10 5.7
2004 70 43 449 2 1 3 0 6.4
Total 152 79 913 6 4 8 45 6.3

A first reaction upon seeing Hood's impressive YPA numbers might be to assume that, as a No. 3 cornerback, he posted his numbers against substandard competition.

However, although Hood has served primarily as the Eagles' third cornerback, it should be noted that injuries to Lito Sheppard meant Hood was the starter in 14 of the 42 games he played in the past three seasons.

Second, more than half the passes directed at Hood during this span were thrown to a player who would be considered either a starting-level wide receiver or an elite No. 3 wide receiver. Hood's overall YPA of 5.0 against this group proves his low YPA numbers largely were generated against high-level competition.

The chart below reveals how he fared against some marquee wideouts (Chad Johnson, Santana Moss, Terrell Owens, Terry Glenn, and TJ Houshmandzadeh) in plays when Hood was directly responsible for coverage on the receiver. The numbers provide proof positive that Hood can run with the best of the best in the NFL. His signing is a definite hit for the Cardinals. "

Hood against the best
Player Att Comp Yds TD INT Pen Yds YPA
Johnson 7 3 28 0 0 0 0 4.0
Moss 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0
Owens 2 0 0 0 0 1 5 2.5
Glenn 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0
Houshmandzadeh 2 2 6 0 0 0 0 3.0

 

[shmessy]

Hood has actually played really well the last couple of years. I know he is buried in the desert but he has been a solid contributer for one of the best young secondaries in the NFL.

Is he making $8 million per year?

No one is saying he isn't a good player. Most importantly, Hood is an excellent VALUE.

Honestly, some of your folks are forgetting that there is a salary cap in the NFL. We aren't talking about trading cards here.

Some folks would do well to read along with these these stats, books like Management Secrets of the New England Patriots (vol. I and II), The Blueprint, and Patriots Reign.