What will Moss cost next year?

[HEY BRO! WHAT UP?]

Moss will retire a Patriot. With the chemistry between Tom and Randy, it would be foolish to let him go. Other than Tom Brady, defenses focus heavily on Randy Moss. Management will give Randy a reasonable contract. However, I don't know if the Pats will pick up the option on Stallworth's contract or else the Pats would be paying two recievers big time bucks. I would love Stallworth to stay, he is starting to emerge now that Moss is being "triple covered" at times.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I was talking about the overall contract size.



I was a bit shocked when I saw the money they threw at him. I moved down to Cincy from Indy several years ago, so I have Bengals on TV here by default. Washington would show a flash here or there, but never really put it all together. That's why I was asking. It makes sense as long as he doesn't get that roster bonus.

You gotta remember in the NFL overall contract is meaningless. It's all about the signing bonus and dead cap and how amortization effects cap cost when combined with future un-guaranteed salary. Guys seldom get cut because they aren't worth their current salary, it's 'cause they aren't worth it plus their long ago bonus amortization on top of it. No bonus, no problem. Even in his out years Manning is probably well worth $14-15M in salary, but add in $6M in prior amortization from his earlier $8M cap hits on a $13M AAV contract and you have a 'lil dilemma - but nothing Polian won't figure a way out of...

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Moss will retire a Patriot. With the chemistry between Tom and Randy, it would be foolish to let him go. Other than Tom Brady, defenses focus heavily on Randy Moss. Management will give Randy a reasonable contract. However, I don't know if the Pats will pick up the option on Stallworth's contract or else the Pats would be paying two recievers big time bucks. I would love Stallworth to stay, he is starting to emerge now that Moss is being "triple covered" at times.

Cap hits are like deck chairs, you can always reshuffle the order. Stallworth's cap hits are relatively flat going forward ($6.3, $4.8, $6.3, $6.3, $6.3). You can easily swap the first two with a little simple restructure, and then dump some of 2009's into 2010-12 when that cap hit for a #1 will be a bargain.

 

[solman]

Stallworth is not worth his contract? Say what? He is worth every penny of a 5 yr, 29mil million dollar deal. That's the market for a guy of his caliber. If he plays a full 16 games, scores 6-8TD's, and winds up with 800-900 yards, than you had best believe he is worth a 5yr, 29 million dollar deal. He is better than Branch(my opinion) and Branch got more. He is way better than Givens and Givens got money in the same ballpark. I guarantee you there will be other teams willing to sign him to a 5yr, 29 million dollar deal. He is worth every penny of that.

However many yards and TDs he gets, they will have been greatly increased by:

1. Playing with Tom Brady.
2. Having Randy Moss drawing double teams and Watson and Welker drawing single coverage.

If we played a healthy CJ as much as we play Stallworth, I would expect him to get 5+ TDs and 600+ yards. Reche Caldwell (who wasn't even worth $1.5M) had 4 TDs and 760 yards.

If Stallworth only gets 6-8TDs and 800-900 yards, there is NO WAY he is worth $6M/yr, especially when we have so many other needs for that money.

We should either:

1. Groom CJ to become a #2 receiver
2. Draft some other #2 receiver in-progress or
3. Acquire some down and out receiver with mad skills who is willing to take a deep discount to play for the Patriots for one year.

 

[solman]

I think I saw the article where you got that number. Did you see they said it was up 23% from 2006? If it grows around the same rate, that would put that number over $9 million for 2008 right?

Its not reasonable to project the same rate of increase in 2008.

The RB tag went up 15% from 2006 but is expected to go DOWN in 2008. Skill players aren't nearly as valued today as they were five years ago.

One of the top paid receivers from 2006, Randy Moss, took a massive salary cut and dropped off the top five list. I believe that Steve Smith signed an extension and will take his place, but I'm not sure how much of Smith's new deal counts towards the 2008 tag.

 

[solman]

Not necessarily. Stallworth could be a viable #1 and his deal could be restructured to reflect that "could be" status.

If we're losing Randy Moss and we decide that Stallworth can be a true #1, then my objection to paying him $6M/year would go away. But if I remember the terms of his deal the back five years also involve a disproportionately large amount of guaranteed money which would still have to be restructured.

If we sign Randy long term, then Stallworth isn't worth it. We'd be talking about the 4th biggest cap hit on our team for a #2 receiver.

 

[solman]

Why did the Pats throw so much money at Kelley Washington? I'm just wondering.

Washington only cost us $900K.

We've got a back end option if he turns into a star for 4 years at a bit more than $3M per. Like Stallworth's deal, the option is heavy on guarantees.

I think he could be a good #2 deep threat, but he's not as good as Stallworth, so hopefully we'll never have to find out.

 

[Phoenix111]

If we're losing Randy Moss and we decide that Stallworth can be a true #1, then my objection to paying him $6M/year would go away. But if I remember the terms of his deal the back five years also involve a disproportionately large amount of guaranteed money which would still have to be restructured.

If we sign Randy long term, then Stallworth isn't worth it. We'd be talking about the 4th biggest cap hit on our team for a #2 receiver.

Yes, for a number 2 receiver that is still an important part of an offense that is working very well right now. Why alter the offense by subtraction if we don't have to. Spending a little bit of money is necessary at the position now because the dynamics of the league are changing. Also, placing CJ out there, as suggested earlier, would bring about a dramatic reduction in talent and cohesiveness in my opinion.

 

[solman]

Why alter the offense by subtraction if we don't have to.

Because the success of our team depends on it.

Every team has to abide by the salary cap, so the teams with the most talent are the ones who pay the least money for each unit of talent.

The 2007 Patriots may be an historically good team. If they are, it will be in large part thanks to players who received substantially less money than they could have as free agents.

If we hadn't been careful with our cap money for all these years, we could never have afforded the team which now takes the field under the Patriots banner.

People are constantly blasting me for caring about the $1.5M we saved on Reche or the <$1M we saved on Rodney this year, but its little moves like that which made the 2007 Patriots possible.

Keeping Stallworth at $6M per (heavilly guaranteed) would be the very antithesis of the value minded philosophy that got us where we are today.

 

[Miguel]

why is that? it isn't clear to me.

It is not clear to me, either.

 

[dakevdude]

Wow, I would have thought it would have been higher with the money that the top WRs are getting.

I was just wondering, thinking that maybe he felt he left with a bad taste in his mouth and has unfinished business there still. I agree about Jackson though.

he DID feel he had unfinished business in MN...

from http://therealrandymoss.com/rmoss/newsdetail.aspx?ArticleId=3008...

"From Joe P., St. Paul, MN: Will you really read this? All I wanna say is I think you’re one of the greatest WRs to ever grace a football field. I wish you wouldn’t have left Minnesota, but I can understand why."

RM: “Joe, this is my personal website, so I do read this. I thank you for considering me one of the best to play at this position. Being a Viking, it got to me too because I never wanted to leave. The Vikings were the team that drafted me and I really felt obligated to bring them home a Super Bowl. We had two shots and we didn’t make it past the NFC Championships twice. There was a lot of hurt inside me when I left because I thought I was supposed to bring those people a championship and I never did.”

...but that being said he wouldnt go back to the Vikes...not with Tarvaris Jackson throwing the ball...and i dont blame him since Tom Brady is the best all around QB he has ever played with...

i would like to see the Pats lock Moss and Stallworth up for the next three years or so...can you imagine? the WR trios (Moss/Welker/Stallworth) with Brady over a long period...what kind of damages they will cause on the rest of the NFL teams?...wow...

 

[Miguel]

Don't think for one second the Colts wouldn't make a push for Moss and at least raise the price because they have a ton of cap space, they have a QB that Moss could put up big numbers with, and they would love to either make the Pats worse by ripping Moss from them or make the Pats spend more than they want to. The Pats should try to get this deal done before the end of the season.

No way do the Colts go after Moss.

 

[Miguel]

I think I saw the article where you got that number. Did you see they said it was up 23% from 2006? If it grows around the same rate, that would put that number over $9 million for 2008 right?

What matters are what 5 wideouts have the highest adjusted cap numbers (offseason workout bonus money and LTBE incentives are not included in the franchise player calculation) in 2007.

In 2006 the wideouts with the 5 highest adjusted cap numbers were
Moss, Randy WR $9,521,250
Holt, Torry WR $7,304,714
Johnson, Andre WR $7,186,664
Smith, Rod WR $7,050,328
Coles, Laveranues WR $7,000,000

We know that Moss' cap number decreased.
I know from the work of bavalan and AdamJT13 that Harrison's 2007 cap number is 8.4 million and TO's is $9,666,666 so it seems safe to project that the 2008 franchise tag number for wideouts will be around 8 million.

 

[ALP]

i dont see us franshishing him...the only way we keep him is by a long term contract

 

[Miguel]

How much is Russell getting this season and I wonder how that will effect the tag number? Peyton's number is relatively low this season so he won't bump it up. I think he is just over $8 million. What is Brady's hit?

You can see my take on the cap hits for
Brady (7.34 million cap hit
Palmer (13.23 million
Manning (8.2 million)
at
http://www.patscap.com/top3qbs.xls

 

[Miguel]

How much room does San Diego have under the cap?

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/showthread.php?t=62553&highlight=adamjt13

may be of help

 

[Truck]

I don't care too much if they keep Samuel (i'm not sure if he's worth the money he wants). Plus I dont mind seeing Gay & Hobbs starting...

I would love to see them resign Moss (3 years/25 million I think works for both sides), and renegotiate Stallworth...
Moss, Stallworth, Welker, Watson, and a hopefully good Chad Jackson....Along with Brady...If we had that group for the next 3 years, we'd be watching some exciting football (& alot of wins).

If CJ becomes a good #2 receiver, then we can afford to lose either Moss or Stallworth and still wind up with an outstanding receiver corps.

 

[workhorse]

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/showthread.php?t=62553&highlight=adamjt13

may be of help

Thanks for all the numbers help. But seriously, it took you like 4 or 5 hours to jump in.

 

[Truck]

Don't think for one second the Colts wouldn't make a push for Moss and at least raise the price because they have a ton of cap space, they have a QB that Moss could put up big numbers with, and they would love to either make the Pats worse by ripping Moss from them or make the Pats spend more than they want to. The Pats should try to get this deal done before the end of the season.

Moss in NE is the primary receiver.
Moss in Indy would be the #2 receiver (there's no way Peyton would favor Moss over Harrison). Also unless they get rid of Wayne, there's not enough outside WR spots to go around (which I don't think they would do, since Wayne is a known quantity who is very good, Moss in Indy would be a slight unknown...How would Moss react the first time Peyton throws him under the bus?)

Thats certainly a factor in his decision making. I dont see any other team (besides NE & Indy) that gives Moss a chance to win every year (some teams have the potentials to become perennial contenders but its too early to say in those cases)

Also, if a deal is going to get done, it'll get done before Free Agency starts. Therefore there'll be no way of other teams making phantom bids to run the price up.
If Moss takes the hometown discount, he won't need to test the market to see what that discount is. If Moss decides to test the market, he's gone cuz the Pats won't match what other teams will pay him (look what Branch got from Seattle....Moss is probably twice as good as Branch, so I'm sure there's atleast one team willing to throw some crazy 12million/year number out there to him)

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Because the success of our team depends on it.

Keeping Stallworth at $6M per (heavilly guaranteed) would be the very antithesis of the value minded philosophy that got us where we are today.

The success of our team depends on sufficient talent, too.

There is nothing heavily guaranteed in either Stallworth's or Washington's deals. Both are crafted around roster bonuses that could be considered incremental signing bonuses in lieu of up front double digit (in Donte's case) signing bonus. Move Donte's cap hits around a bit by converting salary or roster bonus to signing bonus and amortizing it and you have <$5M cap hits for the next couple of seasons followed by several million dollar cap hits in the out years. By 2010 if he's our lone #1 at that cap price and he's producing well it's not a problem. I doubt Moss will hang around as his skills erode, unless by then he's so addicted to winning here he becomes the affordable restructured veteran #2. We've already budgeted Washington in at $5.7M next year, so swapping him for Moss would only cost a few million more. BB understands that sometimes the best defense is a really good offense.