NFL executives offer their take on the Patriots and the trade possibilities for Jimmy Garoppolo

[Rob0729]

Gotta quibble with that too. He threw it 26 times with a few minutes left in the second quarter. Would have finished with more than Brady's 40 attempts against Cleveland.

That speaks as much to the Dolphins' offense than the Pats' offense. The Dolphins ran six plays in under 3 minutes in the first quarter.

 

[Rob0729]

I pretty much agree with your overall caution about JG--it's silly not to be cautious about a guy who's played a game and a half. Pig in a poke! But I do have a quibble with this point, which you've made a few times.

I don't think you can really say Miami was "starting to figure him out." His first three drives went for TDs and he had 3 incompletions total on them, as Miami went 3 & out three times. The Pats would have won about a 100 to nothing if that kept up, so it's obviously not sustainable.

On the next Pats' drive he had a couple of incompletions and the Pats punted. Happenstance. The next two drives, he drove the Pats to the Miami 42, first down, and Amendola fumbled; and on the drive he got hurt, they were on the Miami 21, first down. He had a couple of incompletions on each drive, but was still leading the team down the field.

Again, it’s not even a full game, all caveats apply. But the “figuring him out” thing seems like a misread.

The last three drive for Garoppolo was a 27 yard drive ending on a fumble (not Jimmy's fault), 36 yard drive ending on a FG (the Pats caused a turnover on defense right after the Pats fumbled), and 5 yard drive ending on a punt. They didn't totally figure him out, but they definitely started to slow him down.

 

[patchick]

I prefer to use draft value points cause even though i don't believe in them 100% it is a much clearer mathematical indicator of value then just saying "1st" or "2 1st"

I have said before and will say again. 3000 draft value points is my starting spot. I would never go below that and likely would want more to feel comfortable making any deal... Really I'd be looking for 4000.

I appreciate the "chart points" approach, but IMO demanding 3000-4000 points is essentially saying you're not trading him, period.

Consider that if Minnesota had given up their entire draft rounds 1-7 for Bradford, based on last year's positioning that would have totaled just 1,372 points.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

I appreciate the "chart points" approach, but IMO demanding 3000-4000 points is essentially saying you're not trading him, period.

Consider that if Minnesota had given up their entire draft rounds 1-7 for Bradford, based on last year's positioning that would have totaled just 1,372 points.

I think his point was simply that not all first rounders are the same and you'd obviously much rather have pick #3 or 4 than 29 or 30....... The market is whatever a team is willing to pay and I wouldn't be shocked if he did get traded that it happened draft weekend when teams are even more desperate.....sometimes...

 

[aluminum seats]

That speaks as much to the Dolphins' offense than the Pats' offense. The Dolphins ran six plays in under 3 minutes in the first quarter.

Nope, the Pats threw a higher percentage of plays (pass vs. run) than the Browns game too. Not just volume of plays.

 

[aluminum seats]

The last three drive for Garoppolo was a 27 yard drive ending on a fumble (not Jimmy's fault)

So not relevant

36 yard drive ending on a FG

JG got hurt after the Pats got a first down at Miami's 21

and 5 yard drive ending on a punt

Yes. Couple incompletions and punt. On Brady's 4th drive against Cleveland, the Pats went 3 and out and Brady threw 3 incompletions. Did the Browns figure him out?

 

[Rob0729]

So not relevant



JG got hurt after the Pats got a first down at Miami's 21



Yes. Couple incompletions and punt. On Brady's 4th drive against Cleveland, the Pats went 3 and out and Brady threw 3 incompletions. Did the Browns figure him out?

JG got injured on the last play he played.

 

[BobDigital]

I appreciate the "chart points" approach, but IMO demanding 3000-4000 points is essentially saying you're not trading him, period.

Consider that if Minnesota had given up their entire draft rounds 1-7 for Bradford, based on last year's positioning that would have totaled just 1,372 points.

It is not so much saying I am not trading him as I am not trading him for low compensation.

The Vikings has picks 23, 54, 121 then a 5th 6th 6th and 7th.

Would i trade Jimmy for that? No way.

If I trade Jimmy I want a shot at 2 difference makers. One isn't worth enough unless it is an all pro we are talking about which i don't expect to get anyway.

 

[Galeb]

Those advocating to trade Garoppolo sure as hell better have someone in mind to replace Brady...quarterbacks don't grow on trees. And drafting QBs is never a sure thing.

Jimmy G isn't a sure thing.

 

[Rob0729]

Nope, the Pats threw a higher percentage of plays (pass vs. run) than the Browns game too. Not just volume of plays.

Ok, I was a wrong about the Miami game, but that was in large part because they have one of the worst pass defenses in the league (18th in total yards, 27th in opposing QB passing rating, 24th in opposing QB completion percentage, 21st in opposing QB yards per passing attempt, tied with 5 teams for 17th in sacks, tied for last in interceptions with one). But they went into Arizona to run.

 

[Rob0729]

Agreed. Although I do disagree with one point Rob made, which is that Jimmy did lead the team on a comeback game-winning drive, so he has shown that capability (although again, not any consistency here).

Matt Flynn had 2 starts and looked great. He then signed a huge contract with the Seahawks. He wound up never even starting a game for them, and is out of the league now. There are other examples, although not as extreme.

I think the above all shows 1) it's way too early to make any definitive statement on Garappolo other than the fact that he looked good in limited playing time, and 2) teams historically are willing to pay big despite the limited playing time. I'd love to get a 1st rounder and call it a day, and hope Brissett can continue to grow in the system this offseason.

I don't mean one drive per sea. I mean what if the Pats are down by two TDs in the fourth, can he turn the team around like the great QBs can? What if the Pats get down by two or three scores early and have to pass all the rest of the game?

Winning on the last drive is only one way a QB needs to carry his team on his back.

 

[FourierSeries]

Ok, I was a wrong about the Miami game, but that was in large part because they have one of the worst pass defenses in the league (18th in total yards, 27th in opposing QB passing rating, 24th in opposing QB completion percentage, 21st in opposing QB yards per passing attempt, tied with 5 teams for 17th in sacks, tied for last in interceptions with one). But they went into Arizona to run.

They came out passing, and Jimmy had that long TD pass to Hogan early on. As the breakdown I posted showed, they didn't simplify the passing game at all for Jimmy. They built a good lead fairly early on, which may have resulted in more runs, but they still passed the ball 33 times that game. Oh, and Jimmy had a game winning drive there at the end.

 

[aluminum seats]

JG got injured on the last play he played.

Right...and the Pats had a first down on Miami's 21 when Brissett took over.

 

[thecore762]

Jimmy is a good QB, but his durability is questionable.
That said if someone offered us 21st round picks then I'd take that deal immediately!
That team may very well be Houston or even Cleveland.

 

[Observer]

If JG is worth 2 first rounders, is Brady worth 5?

 

[patfanken]

Some comments on the comments

1. First of all the was a BSPN article, and far all we know the NFL 'execs' they talked were paring lot attendants and secretaries. I'm actually pleased that the conversation here didn't refer to them much, since the didn't have much to say. I've even more suspicious of the legitimacy of the sources since they conveniently hit all the possibilities, from trading him to keeping him.

2. I'd like Tom Brady to finish his career here, but I don't demand it. If I thought it was in the best interests of the team I'd take it. Lets not forget the the core of those good teams of the late 70's were gotten for the boat load of picks they got for trading Jim Plunkett from SF.

3. I can't believe how people want to evaluate JG as a 10 year good to elite starter after less than 6 quarters of play. There are dozens of QB's who have duplicated what Jimmy accomplished and were never heard from again. LONG TERM success for an NFL QB is NOT a given. Just look at these 3 recent examples. 1. RG3 had a HUGE rookie year and literally dragged his team to playoffs. He had 20 TD and only 5 picks AND rushed for over 800 yds. Who here is willing to give up even a 4th round pick for RG3 now. 2. Colin Kapernick - In his 2nd season he took over the starting QB job midway through the season and led his team to with 3 points of superbowl win, including scoring 31 points in the superbowl. He followed that up with a season that got his team to the NFCCG and losing by a TD to the eventual superbowl champs Seahawks. Who here is willing to give up a 4th rounder for him right now.....anyone?
3. Then finally how about Andrew Luck. This generation's golden boy QB. Probably a bad example because I believe this kid is the real deal, but after carrying the Dolts to 3 straight 11-5 seasons and one AFCCG, he has seemingly crashed and burned under the weight of the triumvirate of stupidity that is running his team, and right now even HIS career is in serious doubt.

The point is, long term "10 year" success is NOT a given, even after so called 'proven performances' over a LOT longer periods of success than JG has performed.

4. You don't have to demean Jimmy or build up Brady to make your point. I continue to believe the issue here is the timing of JG's contract plus the cap hits from Brady's contracts. If JG had another year on his contract then keeping him, under the same situation would make sense. But it IS what it is. JG's value as a trade asset will never be higher than it will after THIS season. It won't be half that in 2017 even if he gets another opportunity to play and plays well. No one is going to give us a first or high 2nd round pick, AND have to pay him big bucks in 20017. Remember part of his 2016 trade value is his new team would have a year on the cheap to evaluate him over 16 games before having to pay him big money.

5. People who want to keep him keep talking about Brady falling of some cliff after 2017. Who here can look at what he did Sunday and think that it will all go away in less than 3 years. Brett Farve had one of his best seasons ever at 40 playing on a new team and offense, and HE wasn't eating avocado ice cream and kale plus working out 4 hours a day at that age.

6. People also seem to dismiss the Jacoby Brissett factor. There is no question that the powers to be like this kid. While he no where near the kind of passer that JG is, BUT he has shown the focus and leadership qualities that are equal to him and who know what kind of passer he is in 3 more years in this system. So the cupboard isn't exactly empty if JG is traded

7. I dismiss the rumors that the Pats hate JG because he didn't 'man up' and play against Buffalo. These are ludicrous rumors that are right in keeping with a Fleger driven media who have a direct interest in creating the story and sell it until it become fact. It was in Jimmy's best interests to play IF HE COULD. He couldn't and that was that....until the mediots got their hands on it.

8. I agree with the poster who opined that the Pats need to get between 3000 and 4000 draft chart points to make this deal worth it. The REAL question in my mind is, what if they don't get that number?

 

[NormZauchin]

BB will determine if it is best for the franchise to trade or keep Jimmy, so I will talk to the hypothetical that he is in fact traded (which is what this thread is about, so if your comment is "hes not going anywhere" go post someplace else

if BB gets two firsts, he may or may not use them, but whatever he doesnt use will provide pats lower draft picks (whom Bill has been doing dang well with recently) for like the next 5 years...the value BB would get out of two 1st rounders would be insane

Five years after acquiring two first rounders, Belichick would probably own something like 4 first rounders, 2 second rounders, and 5 or more selections in lower rounds.

 

[Big Bucks]

I think we trade for at least two firsts, take two great tackles or trade down and take 3 great O-Line, turn the team into a great power running offence with two great TEs and let Tommy manage the game for the next 5 seasons. In that 5 seasons we do what we have done the previous 5 and that is to take QB at the 2nd and 3rd rounds and then turn one of them into heir apparent.

 

[ZoisKing]

I'm surprised that anybody would be willing to trade Brady. He's obviously still at the top of his game, in a passing league, with one of the greatest winning personalities/demeanors ever. If we can get two first rounders for Garop, then you invest in the greatest QB to ever play the game, who's still in his prime, and find another backup.

 

[ZoisKing]

I think we trade for at least two firsts, take two great tackles or trade down and take 3 great O-Line, turn the team into a great power running offence with two great TEs and let Tommy manage the game for the next 5 seasons. In that 5 seasons we do what we have done the previous 5 and that is to take QB at the 2nd and 3rd rounds and then turn one of them into heir apparent.

I can definitely agree with that. Give Brady a stud OL and a back like Dillon, with the tight ends we have now, and it's all a matter of health.