Brady case predictions

[Fencer]

There's a strong chance I'll be proved wrong within 48 hours of starting this thread, but -- time to stick our necks out with Brady case predictions. Here are mine.

1. I think there will be no settlement; Berman will rule.

2. I think Berman's ruling will be a strong win for Brady.

3. I think that on the law Berman will basically rule:

A. Goodell may have godly rights to determine the facts of what happened. (Kessler didn't really challenge this.)
B. Goodell does NOT have godly rights to determine the "facts" of the law of the shop.
C. The league has no right to rely on fact-finding beyond that used as a basis for the original discipline.
D. The Wells Report contains the whole of the league's fact-finding.
E. Non-independence of the Wells Report is relevant mainly in solidifying D.
F. Arbitrator bias is relevant mainly in undermining some of the rather circular arguments against B.
G. Given B, the "notice" arguments are correct.
H. Given C, D, and G, the punishments are ridiculous. Small fines are all that make sense, if those.

4. For remedy I think Berman will vacate, and allow a re-hearing with a neutral arbitrator that stays inside his guidelines. That's basically a total win for Brady. However ...

5. ... I think Berman will leave the door open for a new disciplinary proceeding around alleged ball deflation in other games than the AFCC. This will be a corollary of his determination that the Wells Report was only about one game.

That is the not-so-good-for-Brady part.

6. If Brady's side is smart, they'll leak a suggestion of postponing all disciplinary proceedings AND defamation cases until after the upcoming season. I don't know whether they'll do that.

7. If everything happens this way, I expect the league to keep leaking the idea that Jastremski and McNally can incriminate the hell out of Brady.

 

[Bobsyouruncle]

I think Berman will mainly make a narrow ruling vacating on Bias (Pash thing) and notice. Pash issue would allow another arbitration, but notice would not. I think he avoids the other issues because they are harder to prove, and he doesn't want to have it overturned in appeals.

Neither of those issues appears to set any new precedence IMO, and both are pretty rock solid reasons to vacate.

Changing the reason for punishment could be brought up as well, and seems pretty clear cut to be outside of CBA.

Ruling based on the idea that Goodell only used the Wells report is hard to prove. Even though we all know Goodell is FOS and chose his words to justify punishment instead of as a result of investigation I don't think it's necessary for the courts to get in a pissing contest about what Goodell used to come to his decision. Nobody knows, plus he's an idiot so it may very well have been a magic 8-ball. It can be vacated without addressing the issue.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I have always thought the strongest part of Brady's case is that this is an equipment violation, since that was clearly collectively bargained and is therefore a direct violation of the CBA. The sides made a deal, and that deal included an 8k fine for equipment tampering, stickum, etc. It is all right there in the CBA. You can't just apply "integrity if the game violation" where you want.

 

[shmessy]

I hope all you guys are right. I am not a lawyer.

 

[YOUGOTMOSSED]

Waiting for this court decision feels like 2nd and goal in the last 1/2 minute of the Superbowl all over again.

I'd feel so much better about our chances of winning if this case was not venued in NY.

For the sake of my sanity, I'm keeping a hopeful thought and will predict a Brady win. After tearing apart the NFL's case like that during oral arguments, Berman would look like a complete jackass if he ruled the other way.

 

[aluminum seats]

Don't want to make a prediction...feeling very superstitious.

Fingers crossed.

 

[NE_Zealot]

I'm not counting any chickens. Everything from the jump has gone against the pats. I am remaining "cautiously pessimistic".

I just want this garbage over with so fans can put this behind and gear up for the next massive NFL scandal. My hope is Goofell continues to step in **** so that further down the road people look back and realize that the NFL royally botched framegate (more than they do now) and are kinder to Brady.

 

[sb1]

I agree there will be no settlement and the judge will rule.

No idea which way Berman will go. I think it's 50/50 at best, but at the very least he will roast the league in his ruling which Brady may want to use in any defamation suit if he wishes to proceed.

And if Brady loses and has to sit I think he really does seriously consider a defamation lawsuit. He has 3 years to file it in Mass. court.

 

[NE_Zealot]

I agree there will be no settlement and the judge will rule.

No idea which way Berman will go. I think it's 50/50 at best, but at the very least he will roast the league in his ruling which Brady may want to use in any defamation suit if he wishes to proceed.

And if Brady loses and has to sit I think he really does seriously consider a defamation lawsuit. He has 3 years to file it in Mass. court.

That is probably the best outcome if he rules for Goody. Uphold but put the league on blast.

 

[gitgronked82]

That is probably the best outcome if he rules for Goody. Uphold but put the league on blast.

Eh, no one will even see that part, though

 

[Froob]

I don't see how the league could possibly win. Nothing Berman has said would suggest anything close to that.

 

[Boomer B]

Eh, no one will even see that part, though

Yup, people will only see the headlines. Someone has to have an emotional involvement to dig deeper and look more closely, as us Pats fans do, the general public won't read past the headlines. Brady needs a win for the general public to think there's a chance he's innocent and to see how shady the NFL is.

I was at a family picnic last week. My bro is a Seahawks fan and we made a bet that the loser of the SuperBowl would have to wear opposing teams jersey to the picnic. He had to go in my classic red Brady jersey. My cousin who probably only watches the Super Bowl every year and knows nothing about football saw my brothers jersey with Brady on the back and she went off saying that he cheated and they wouldn't of won the Super Bowl without cheating. She's the common person out there that only see's the headlines and doesn't even know that the balls in the Super Bowl were obviously legal.

Brady needs to win and he needs that headline for anyone other then Pats fans or a few unbiased football fans to clear his name.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I don't see how the league could possibly win. Nothing Berman has said would suggest anything close to that.

Yes and more to the point of how Berman has been eviscerating the NFL. I understand the logic in beating down the side with the stronger legal position to force a settlement so it does not go to appeal but IF he rules in favor of the NFL he will come across as extremely disingenuous in his criticism. He loses credibility IMO.

In addition, I also don't think he forces an independent arbitrator down each party's throat. The Wells Report is a joke and it was doctored by Pash. To have an independent arbitrator be truly independent, they need to start over again with an unbiased investigation which needs to publish an unbiased report that ultimately will be reviewed and considered by an unbiased arbitrator. Does each side really want that? Now?

I'm sliding $50 across the table and saying he rules in favor of TB12.

 

[blackglass3]

Tomorrow will follow the whole offseason and be a lovely kick in the nuts to all of us Pats fans. Every time it seems like logic will win out, things fall apart.

I don't care. As long as Brady doesn't accept a shortened suspension. I'd rather see him fight it and sit out 4 than sit out 2 and admit guilt.

 

[borg]

Two part ruling
1) The NFL's conclusion that Tom Brady tampered or was involved in a conspiracy to tamper footballs is baseless
2) The NFL can do whatever it wants

In a one sentence statement after his ruling, Judge Berman said "Let the 'Full 32' suck on that!"

 

[NE_Zealot]

Yup, people will only see the headlines. Someone has to have an emotional involvement to dig deeper and look more closely, as us Pats fans do, the general public won't read past the headlines. Brady needs a win for the general public to think there's a chance he's innocent and to see how shady the NFL is.

I was at a family picnic last week. My bro is a Seahawks fan and we made a bet that the loser of the SuperBowl would have to wear opposing teams jersey to the picnic. He had to go in my classic red Brady jersey. My cousin who probably only watches the Super Bowl every year and knows nothing about football saw my brothers jersey with Brady on the back and she went off saying that he cheated and they wouldn't of won the Super Bowl without cheating. She's the common person out there that only see's the headlines and doesn't even know that the balls in the Super Bowl were obviously legal.

Brady needs to win and he needs that headline for anyone other then Pats fans or a few unbiased football fans to clear his name.

I always like it when the haters identify themselves. Makes it easier to ignore them. You will never convince a hater they are wrong. That's why it's easiest not to deal with them.

A judge's ruling isn't changing anything. People have already formed opinions about Brady's guilt/innocence.
We as fans will feel better with a victory but haters will continue to spew garbage.

There will always be fans that go to the wall to defend their guys, there will always be haters. I'm only interested what the informed people in the middle think. After a ruling is made I want to hear from these people.

 

[XLIX]

 

[james87654]

i predict that Berman will uphold the ruling

 

[Deus Irae]

When you're arguing 4 points against the other side, and the judge notes that just one sub-section to one of your 4 points has been enough for vacating rulings in the past, you've got to feel good about your case. People talk about Brady wishing he hadn't destroyed his phone. The more likely (though you never know for a 100% certainty with judges) regret is going to be Goodell regretting not having Pash take the stand.

 

[JMC00]

Tomorrow will follow the whole offseason and be a lovely kick in the nuts to all of us Pats fans. Every time it seems like logic will win out, things fall apart.

Except this time it is a bit different because the nfl is no longer in control of the outcome like they had been 3 times already. (Report, Punishment and Appeal)