Patriots Pass Defense Improved in 2013 over 2012

[supafly]

========



BOTTOM LINE

A) We need to re-sign Talib.

B) We need bring in a 3rd starting DE to rotate with Ninkovich and Jones (in place of Bequette)

C) And yes, we need an upgrade over Carter to compete with Buchanan.

A) Or, make a run at another viable option for CB--one who does not miss 21-22% of every single season. Another option could be to draft an additional CB. Sure, we'll likely take a downturn in production, but when money is factored in it may offset.

I agree with the though that we'd "like" to re-sign Talib. I disagree with the thought that we "need" to re-sign Talib.

B) Agreed, although this may be done relatively cheaply, considering the extremely low bar set by Bequette.

C) One of you or I could play in place of Andre Carter, and we'd likely get more pressure. He was a complete shell of his former self.

 

[everlong]

If there was a quantitative stat in football such as WAR or VORP I think Gregory would be a zero or completely average. He's not bad but he's not going to make a play to win you a game either. He usually makes the plays he should but every once in a while he's late or takes a bad angle and it leads to a big play for the opposition. The people who hate him will be quick to jump on these plays. Everybody gets beat in today's NFL.

Now imagine this defense with Earl Thomas. If they can identify a player in the draft I'm all for an upgrade.

That said if I had one wish for the defense be it draft or FA it's an interior pass rusher. The Patriots just do not push the center of the pocket very often. Against Denver I don't think they did once. Jones and Siliga are good rotational players in the Green and Hamilton mode but they shouldn't be playing 60+ snaps per game.

I agree on the need for a DE rotation. Assuming a healthy Mayo and Collins I would consider a three man rotation of Jones, Nink and Hightower and then drafting or bringing in another LB. Hightower would be good depth should the need arise.

 

[mayoclinic]

If there was a quantitative stat in football such as WAR or VORP I think Gregory would be a zero or completely average. He's not bad but he's not going to make a play to win you a game either. He usually makes the plays he should but every once in a while he's late or takes a bad angle and it leads to a big play for the opposition. The people who hate him will be quick to jump on these plays. Everybody gets beat in today's NFL.

Now imagine this defense with Earl Thomas. If they can identify a player in the draft I'm all for an upgrade.

Earl Thomas-type players don't come around very often, and they go early. Calvin Pryor (a different style player) will almost certainly go 1st round. Lamarcus Joyner will likely go 2nd round, and he has some of Thomas' attributes. Keith McGill (6'3" 215#) converted form safety to CB, and could be interesting. For day 3, I really like Jonathan Dowling of Western Kentucky, but he wouldn't be a day 1 starter.

That said if I had one wish for the defense be it draft or FA it's an interior pass rusher. The Patriots just do not push the center of the pocket very often. Against Denver I don't think they did once. Jones and Siliga are good rotational players in the Green and Hamilton mode but they shouldn't be playing 60+ snaps per game.

Besides Ra'Shede Hageman, Timmy Jernigan could be interested. He played NT for Florida St. at 6'2" 298# and held his own. He's very strong for his size, and good against the run, but explosive and able to penetrate. I agree that Siliga, Jones, and hopefully Armstead provide great depth, but as of right now I don't want them starting.

I agree on the need for a DE rotation. Assuming a healthy Mayo and Collins I would consider a three man rotation of Jones, Nink and Hightower and then drafting or bringing in another LB. Hightower would be good depth should the need arise.

I'd be fine moving Hightower to DE, Mayo to MLB, and getting a more rangy/explosive OLB like Kyle Van Noy or Marcus Smith to pair with Jamie Collins on the outside. That would be a very interesting LB group.

 

[everlong]

Earl Thomas-type players don't come around very often, and they go early. Calvin Pryor (a different style player) will almost certainly go 1st round. Lamarcus Joyner will likely go 2nd round, and he has some of Thomas' attributes. Keith McGill (6'3" 215#) converted form safety to CB, and could be interesting. For day 3, I really like Jonathan Dowling of Western Kentucky, but he wouldn't be a day 1 starter.

No more Dowlings. McGill doesnn't have great instincts from what I've seen. I do like Joyner. I can't think of Bill drafting anybody out of FSU in a long time. PK Sam might be the last........and for a reason.

Besides Ra'Shede Hageman, Timmy Jernigan could be interested. He played NT for Florida St. at 6'2" 298# and held his own. He's very strong for his size, and good against the run, but explosive and able to penetrate. I agree that Siliga, Jones, and hopefully Armstead provide great depth, but as of right now I don't want them starting.

I'd be fine moving Hightower to DE, Mayo to MLB, and getting a more rangy/explosive OLB like Kyle Van Noy or Marcus Smith to pair with Jamie Collins on the outside. That would be a very interesting LB group.[/QUOTE]

Love Van Noy but like we talked about before I don't think Bill uses a first on a LB this year. Really like Hagerman.

 

[SalemPats]

If there was a quantitative stat in football such as WAR or VORP I think Gregory would be a zero or completely average. He's not bad but he's not going to make a play to win you a game either. He usually makes the plays he should but every once in a while he's late or takes a bad angle and it leads to a big play for the opposition. The people who hate him will be quick to jump on these plays. Everybody gets beat in today's NFL.

Now imagine this defense with Earl Thomas. If they can identify a player in the draft I'm all for an upgrade.

Earl Thomas is the type of player we need. I believe we'll re-sign Wilfork who should solidify our line, pass rush is strong, Mayo/Collins/Ninko/Hightower is a formidable LB corps and Talib/Dennard/Arrington/Ryan is a good secondary. If we can get a headhunter type safety who is good against the run our defense will be top 5 next year

 

[mayoclinic]

If we can get a headhunter type safety who is good against the run our defense will be top 5 next year

That was DJ Swearinger last year, who I was hoping we would take at 59. He went #57 to Houston.

This year it's Calvin Pryor of Louisville, who is currently projected to be off the board before our 1st round pick.

 

[mgteich]

Let me try another approach. We have three needs: a top corner, a rotational DE and a sub DE.

A) We need a #1 corner. If we plan to draft a corner, then we still need a #1 corner. Dennard is not that, and a rookie is not that in Belichick's system. I think that there would be a MAJOR reduction in 2014 quality if we replaced Talib with a rookie.

B) I am NOT talking about a marginal replacement for Bequette who would be in inactive in most games. I am talking about someone to put in a 3-man rotation with Ninkovich and Jones.

C) I am not talking about a marginal upgrade to Carter/Buchanan. I am talking about about someone who will actually help the defense.

BOTTOM LINE
We had three positions filled by players who produced little. I want to have 2 players who are actually likely produce plus a third developmental player (who could be an incumbent).

In additional, the rotational player need to be capable of starting and getting 90% of the defensive reps if Ninkovich or Carter is injured.

And yes, I understand that Belichick will figure out how to deal with injuries, even if we don't have adequate replacements. It still should be a GOAL to have these players.

A) Or, make a run at another viable option for CB--one who does not miss 21-22% of every single season. Another option could be to draft an additional CB. Sure, we'll likely take a downturn in production, but when money is factored in it may offset.

I agree with the though that we'd "like" to re-sign Talib. I disagree with the thought that we "need" to re-sign Talib.

B) Agreed, although this may be done relatively cheaply, considering the extremely low bar set by Bequette.

C) One of you or I could play in place of Andre Carter, and we'd likely get more pressure. He was a complete shell of his former self.

 

[mayoclinic]

Let me try another approach. We have three needs: a top corner, a rotational DE and a sub DE.

A) We need a #1 corner. If we plan to draft a corner, then we still need a #1 corner. Dennard is not that, and a rookie is not that in Belichick's system. I think that there would be a MAJOR reduction in 2014 quality if we replaced Talib with a rookie.

B) I am NOT talking about a marginal replacement for Bequette who would be in inactive in most games. I am talking about someone to put in a 3-man rotation with Ninkovich and Jones.

C) I am not talking about a marginal upgrade to Carter/Buchanan. I am talking about about someone who will actually help the defense.

BOTTOM LINE
We had three positions filled by players who produced little. I want to have 2 players who are actually likely produce plus a third developmental player (who could be an incumbent).

In additional, the rotational player need to be capable of starting and getting 90% of the defensive reps if Ninkovich or Carter is injured.

And yes, I understand that Belichick will figure out how to deal with injuries, even if we don't have adequate replacements. It still should be a GOAL to have these players.

Since need (A) in your list was filled by Talib in 2013, I find it hard to say that need was "filled by [a] player who produced little". Also, I'd say we have 4 needs - the ones you mentioned plus at least one stud in the middle who can draw double teams, stop the run, push the pocket and ideally provide some interior penetration. Call that one (D). It's not clear that that player is currently on the team, including Wilfork.

My take on those 4 needs:

(A) Re-sign Talib. Any other option - FA or the draft - results in a potentially significant drop off in the level of the secondary, IMHO.

(B) Draft a rotational player. Signing a quality FA (Michael Johnson, Greg Hardy) would likely be prohibitive. Trent Murphy would be my choice, but there are others. It's also possible that Dont'a Hightower could be moved up on the line, but that would create needs elsewhere.

(C) Buchanan could develop, and Jamie Collins (or even Hightower) could play that role to some extent. But I would love to draft another player who can play in space but also play the sub rusher role. Marcus Smith seems like a good fit, but this draft is deep in sub rusher/OLB possibilities (Dee Ford, Kyle Van Noy, Demarcus Lawrence).

(D) Cut Wilfork and sign a UFA like Linval Joseph, or draft someone high like Timmy Jernigan or Ra'Shede Hageman, or both.

The other significant needs I see are another LB who can play in space (could be filled by the same player who plays the sub rusher role), an upgrade at S opposite McCourty, and depth at outside CB.

 

[mgteich]

OK, you've had a year to think about it. How do feel with 100% hindsight?

Would you rather have Collins (52) or Swearinger (57)?

Would you rather have Dobson (59) or Swearinger?

I'm not sure that Belichick would trade either Ryan (83) or Harmon (91) for Swearinger.
==============

IMHO, the reality is that if we wanted a SS, Elam needed to be picked at 29 instead if trading for Collins, Dobson, Boyce and a 7th.

That was DJ Swearinger last year, who I was hoping we would take at 59. He went #57 to Houston.

This year it's Calvin Pryor of Louisville, who is currently projected to be off the board before our 1st round pick.

 

[mayoclinic]

OK, you've had a year to think about it. How do feel with 100% hindsight?

Would you rather have Collins (52) or Swearinger (57)?

Would you rather have Dobson (59) or Swearinger?

I'm not sure that would trade either Ryan (83) or Harmon (91) for Swearinger.

I had Collins rated above Swearinger, and was thrilled when the Pats took him; I never expected them to do so. I thought he had the potential to be a stud then, and nothing has changed my opinion on that matter. But I would have jumped all over Swearinger at 59 if he had still been on the board, and then taken the best available receiver at 83 - for all we know Dobson might have still been available, or we could have traded up slightly to get someone. Just what I would have done, but it was moot when Houston took Swearinger at 57.

I'm not crying over spilt milk. I'm quite content with how Dobson, Ryan and Harmon all performed for us. You can't pick everyone. But Swearinger certainly fit the description of a safety who can lay the lumber, defend the run, and is still effective in coverage.

FWIW, I love Pryor this year, but I don't expect him to be available, and I'd probably address other priorities in any case.

 

[Ivan]

For the most part i like their secondary but i doubt Talib will be back and that creates a big hole for some of the season. I think the answer is in free agency because trusting a rookie to fill that hole won't work. however i do think that the direction Belichick has been moving in has been one about communication being the priority. Most of the prospects after the top tier are in the same general range as athletes and what matters most is their work as a unit, which is why we are seeing a Rutgers heavy secondary. I expect Dennard and Ryan to be quality CB's but don't see either as shutdown, however there is not a shutdown corner in this draft so that isn't exactly an option. They aren't going to pay any corner 8 million a year so they are going to have to add a good CB to the rotation in free agency and draft more to supplement what they have.

Right now what I like in their secondary is Dennard and Ryan at corner, Arrington on the slot, and McCourty at FS, They need to upgrade the safety position to go with a vet corner. If they can get Talib back at a decent price then i am all for that, but i wouldn't give him 7-8 a season.

 

[supafly]

however there is not a shutdown corner in this draft so that isn't exactly an option.

I'd be more than excited with the thought of Darqueze Dennard (won the Thorpe award as the nation's top CB) lasting into the late 20s but that will never happen.

He looked pretty "shutdown" to me the several times that I saw him this year playing for Michigan State's tough defense, allowing only 3 completions in 31 attempts on any kind of pass more than 15 yards. He definitely shut down the entire side of the field, and will likely be the first CB taken in the draft.

He's not quite 6 feet though, so that hurts a bit. He is very physical however, at least in the games that I saw.

Either way, I think if Talib walks we need to address that by looking at a handful of other CBs in that range who may be slightly cheaper. The problem with that is, you know that Talib has this defense down pat, whereas the new FA prospect would not.