Can we talk WR for a bit?

[Austin]

Serious question. Why not Ace Sanders in the 5th rather than Austin in the first?

What about Marquise Goodwin in the third?

 

[Patriot Missile]

Serious question. Why not Ace Sanders in the 5th rather than Austin in the first?

That's a rather large drop off in talent.

If the Pats are going to let Welker walk,Austin itote rookie I'd feel most comfortable having the torch passed to.

 

[DaBruinz]

That's a rather large drop off in talent.

If the Pats are going to let Welker walk,Austin itote rookie I'd feel most comfortable having the torch passed to.

Is it really that large of a drop-off in talent? Or is there just a lot of equivalent talent in between Austin (who is being projected by some to fall out of the 1st round) and Sanders.

 

[stelfans]

Hopkins is my top receiver too. Followed by Patton and Wheaton.

What we need is Hopkins this year and Coleman in 2014.

 

[LuthierJr]

We might be able to get him for a really late pick or perhaps even a UDFA with some luck. Depends on how fast he runs at the combine.

Justin Brown. IMO the best receiver from Oklahoma (more upside than Kenny Stills although not as good right now) that was a Penn state transfer. Great return man too (although Demps looks to fill that role).

He is 6' 3" 215lbs. I'm thinking he runs 4.5-ish. He is a damn good receiver, but a little raw. If they want a later round project with a lot of upside I like it.

 

[Joey007]

We need a freak of nature guy.

That's what equals success in today's deep threat WR's. Whether it's Randy Moss (in his prime), Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, or Fitzgerald. Those type of guys with size and speed, are the elite guys in the league. This is why I want Terrence Williams. 6'4, and can run a 4.4 40??

Yes please.

 

[DaBruinz]

We need a freak of nature guy.

That's what equals success in today's deep threat WR's. Whether it's Randy Moss (in his prime), Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, or Fitzgerald. Those type of guys with size and speed, are the elite guys in the league. This is why I want Terrence Williams. 6'4, and can run a 4.4 40??

Yes please.

Except that Williams isn't 6'4 (he's 6'1 7/8) and 4.4 40 is his PROJECTED best. We'll learn next week what he runs and how well he runs routes and how good his hands are.. That is what Johnson, Johnson, Moss and Fitzgerald have that you fail to mention. Ball skills. The ability to go and GET the ball.

I will say this. Williams nearly doubled his career best in receptions and more than doubled his career best in yards.

 

[manxman2601]

That's a rather large drop off in talent.

If the Pats are going to let Welker walk,Austin itote rookie I'd feel most comfortable having the torch passed to.

I like Austin although there some things I'm not convinced of (runs out of bounds a lot which I really don't like, would like to see him get separation by actually beating a defender rather than getting open due to scheme).

But I'm just really impressed by Sanders' receiving skills: he catches with his hands, get's instant separation by out-cutting the defender and there's a bunch of little things which tell me he takes to coaching really well. I also like his toughness compared to Austin.

The big potential red flag is Sanders' size and speed. The guy looks tiny, significantly smaller than Austin and I'm not convinced by his long-speed although there is no question about his short area quickness and cutting ability which is a match for Austin's.

I like Austin as a playmaker in a hybrid Edelman/Woodhead mode. But I much prefer Sanders purely on his WR skills. Austin may be a better short-term answer but I honestly believe that, assuming he measures and tests OK at the Combine, that Sanders would be a better Welker replacement in our offense. Maybe not in year one, but certainly in year two and onwards.

And I do prefer the value of first round pick + Sanders over Austin + day three pick.

Edit: Found the following scouting reports which back up what I'm saying:

Ace Sanders

Route Running:

Overall route running ability a plus to his game, makes deliberate and sharp cuts
Runs defenders off on comeback routes with superb timing and footwork
Handful for defenders in man coverage with quickness and change of speed ability
Tracks the ball naturally as a pass-catcher with ability to catch the ball over his shoulder, has even shown that as a punt returner
Not as much experience from the slot as preferred, lined up on the boundary frequently

Tavon Austin

Route Running:

Used exclusively in the slot as a receiver with a very limited route tree
Struggles to fight through contact from man coverage corners and linebackers
Acceleration off the snap and out of breaks mostly non-evident, limits ability to separate from defenders in man coverage
Shows savvy to feel space and find gaps for his quarterback against zone coverage

Just my two-pennies

 

[manxman2601]

What about Marquise Goodwin in the third?

He's good too, I just really like Sanders' potential as a slot guy (see above). Wouldn't be disappointed in Goodwin at all.

 

[Joey007]

Except that Williams isn't 6'4 (he's 6'1 7/8) and 4.4 40 is his PROJECTED best. We'll learn next week what he runs and how well he runs routes and how good his hands are.. That is what Johnson, Johnson, Moss and Fitzgerald have that you fail to mention. Ball skills. The ability to go and GET the ball.

I will say this. Williams nearly doubled his career best in receptions and more than doubled his career best in yards.

My mistake. I looked at a more accurate scouting report. He's actually 6'2 1/2, and runs about a 4.5 40.

I also was intiigued by what was said about his hands. Not great, but spetacular with over the shoulder catches.

 

[DocHoliday]

I hope we stay far away from Austin. Last thing we need is another short gadget guy.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

We need a freak of nature guy.

That's what equals success in today's deep threat WR's. Whether it's Randy Moss (in his prime), Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, or Fitzgerald. Those type of guys with size and speed, are the elite guys in the league. This is why I want Terrence Williams. 6'4, and can run a 4.4 40??

Yes please.

Terrence Williams is not remotely in the talent class of the above 4.

If you are even close to a physical freak with good wr skills, you go very high. Here are top 10 wr picks in the last 5 years:
2012: Justin Blackmon
2011: AJ Green #4, Julio Jones #6
2010: None: (Demaryious Thomas #22 had doubts about his ability to run real routes and Dez Bryant # 24 had questions about his maturity)
2009 Darius Heyward-Bey #7 and Michael Crabtree at #10
2008 No wr in the first round.

Randy Moss dropped because of huge character concerns.
A. Johnson was drafted #3 overall, Fitzgerald, despite lacking elite top end speed, was drafted #3 overall, and C. Johnson was drafted #2 overall.

Physical freaks with genuine wr skills go very high in the draft. Everyone wants a freak of nature who can play wr. The reality is that there are few on the planet, and almost always need to invest very highly in one to get one without some serious questions about their ability to dominate at the next level.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

My mistake. I looked at a more accurate scouting report. He's actually 6'2 1/2, and runs about a 4.5 40.

I also was intiigued by what was said about his hands. Not great, but spetacular with over the shoulder catches.

Sorry if I was piling on with my last comment. I made my reply to your first post without seeing DaBruinz or your later reply.

 

[DocHoliday]

Terrence Williams is not remotely in the talent class of the above 4.

If you are even close to a physical freak with good wr skills, you go very high. Here are top 10 wr picks in the last 5 years:
2012: Justin Blackmon
2011: AJ Green #4, Julio Jones #6
2010: None: (Demaryious Thomas #22 had doubts about his ability to run real routes and Dez Bryant # 24 had questions about his maturity)
2009 Darius Heyward-Bey #7 and Michael Crabtree at #10
2008 No wr in the first round.

Randy Moss dropped because of huge character concerns.
A. Johnson was drafted #3 overall, Fitzgerald, despite lacking elite top end speed, was drafted #3 overall, and C. Johnson was drafted #2 overall.

Physical freaks with genuine wr skills go very high in the draft. Everyone wants a freak of nature who can play wr. The reality is that there are few on the planet, and almost always need to invest very highly in one to get one without some serious questions about their ability to dominate at the next level.

What's everyone's take on taking a Stephen Hill type freak who spent most of his time in a running offense?

We'd need to put serious effort in developing him but if he takes it'd be amazing.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

What's everyone's take on taking a Stephen Hill type freak who spent most of his time in a running offense?

We'd need to put serious effort in developing him but if he takes it'd be amazing.

I think this gets the big
" it depends" answer:

If a guy has good hands and is aggressive and willing to use his body, he might over time, refine his route running and contribute. It helps here if he is smart/ committed to football. I am not a fan of guys who do not catch/ attack the football. WR is very hard to project.

There are the super elite high round 1 picks that have succeeded and then a range of 2nd round- in drafted picks. some of those guys, like Colston do well off the bat, and others like Vincent Jackson take years to put it together. It is important to remember that for every Brandon Marshall there are several Ty Calico's, Ramses Barden's and Mohamed Massoquoi's.

 

[Avenger]

It looks like this draft has really good mid round talent, at least a half dozen WRs that I would be ok with.

 

[DaBruinz]

My mistake. I looked at a more accurate scouting report. He's actually 6'2 1/2, and runs about a 4.5 40.

I also was intiigued by what was said about his hands. Not great, but spetacular with over the shoulder catches.

Clearly you didn't go by his Senior Bowl weigh in/ measurements.

The 6'1 7/8 was his official height. Not 6'2 1/2".

2013 Senior Bowl Measureables | National Football Post

I'm not down on Williams or anything. As I stated in my previous response, there are things that remain to be seen about him.

 

[patfanken]

Can we agree on this at least (as far as a rookie WR will go). Whomever we bring is is NOT going to have a major impact on the offense. Most of the time a real good rookie year is around 5-600 yds. Last year no rookie had a thousand yds and only 3 than more than 800.

The point being that even if the Pats pick a WR in one of the first 3 rounds, given WHERE they will be picking in each round, the chances of them getting a guy who will be prolific enough to make an "impact" his first year is almost nil. And if that's not enough, it should be noted that in the BB era the record for most receiving yds by a rookie WR is 489 by Deion Branch back in 2002. 2nd was 360 by Julian Edelman. So really NO rookie WR has made much of an impact during the BB era

Our best chance is to find some guy with great physical skills and is very raw, who we can hopefully develop over a few years. Remember DThomas of the Broncos had a combined 755 yds over his first 2 years before exploding for over 1400 this year. BOTTOM LINE: anyone expecting a draft pick WR to make any kind of impact in 2013 is going to be disappointed.

BTW- that being said, I am all for picking a WR in the one of the first 2 rounds, but whomever that is, I'm not expecting much of an impact in 2013

 

[Patriot Missile]

Can we agree on this at least (as far as a rookie WR will go). Whomever we bring is is NOT going to have a major impact on the offense. Most of the time a real good rookie year is around 5-600 yds. Last year no rookie had a thousand yds and only 3 than more than 800.

The point being that even if the Pats pick a WR in one of the first 3 rounds, given WHERE they will be picking in each round, the chances of them getting a guy who will be prolific enough to make an "impact" his first year is almost nil. And if that's not enough, it should be noted that in the BB era the record for most receiving yds by a rookie WR is 489 by Deion Branch back in 2002. 2nd was 360 by Julian Edelman. So really NO rookie WR has made much of an impact during the BB era

Our best chance is to find some guy with great physical skills and is very raw, who we can hopefully develop over a few years. Remember DThomas of the Broncos had a combined 755 yds over his first 2 years before exploding for over 1400 this year. BOTTOM LINE: anyone expecting a draft pick WR to make any kind of impact in 2013 is going to be disappointed.

BTW- that being said, I am all for picking a WR in the one of the first 2 rounds, but whomever that is, I'm not expecting much of an impact in 2013

Sorry Ken, can't agree. My expectations are and should be high. Impact rookie wrs are seldom but they do happen. Boldin,T Glenn,Colston to name a few. Draft the right one and have him play with one of the best QBs of all time and you never know what will happen

If it doesn't happen then atleast they tried. I still don't fault BB for C Jackson. He killed the hands drills and had a good combine. It's time to try again imo. Expectations will be high but I'm mature enough to know the risks involved with that position.

 

[patsinthesnow]

Can we agree on this at least (as far as a rookie WR will go). Whomever we bring is is NOT going to have a major impact on the offense. Most of the time a real good rookie year is around 5-600 yds. Last year no rookie had a thousand yds and only 3 than more than 800.

The point being that even if the Pats pick a WR in one of the first 3 rounds, given WHERE they will be picking in each round, the chances of them getting a guy who will be prolific enough to make an "impact" his first year is almost nil. And if that's not enough, it should be noted that in the BB era the record for most receiving yds by a rookie WR is 489 by Deion Branch back in 2002. 2nd was 360 by Julian Edelman. So really NO rookie WR has made much of an impact during the BB era

Our best chance is to find some guy with great physical skills and is very raw, who we can hopefully develop over a few years. Remember DThomas of the Broncos had a combined 755 yds over his first 2 years before exploding for over 1400 this year. BOTTOM LINE: anyone expecting a draft pick WR to make any kind of impact in 2013 is going to be disappointed.

BTW- that being said, I am all for picking a WR in the one of the first 2 rounds, but whomever that is, I'm not expecting much of an impact in 2013

Is an impact like Josh Gordon too much to ask?

50 receptions 805 yards 5 TDs 16.1ypc