Can we talk WR for a bit?

[rabidfireweasel]

Sorry Ken, can't agree. My expectations are and should be high. Impact rookie wrs are seldom but they do happen. Boldin,T Glenn,Colston to name a few. Draft the right one and have him play with one of the best QBs of all time and you never know what will happen

If it doesn't happen then atleast they tried. I still don't fault BB for C Jackson. He killed the hands drills and had a good combine. It's time to try again imo. Expectations will be high but I'm mature enough to know the risks involved with that position.

Your expections aren't high, they are close to absurd. You put out 3 names who had the 3 of the top 6 strongest rookie seasons in the last 20 years (Randy Moss, Michael Clayton and AJ Green probably fill out the list) and make that your baseline for expectations. This, on a team with two- three established pass catchers. Basically, out of the hundreds of wr's drafted in the last 20 years, and with little history of drafting a good one, you expect the patriots to draft a rookie- at a pick in the 20's, who performs in the 5% historically. The question in, why?

Consider that Calvin Johnson only had 756 and 4 as a rookie. Larry Fitzgerald wasn't much better. Andre Johnson didn't get 1000 yards. Julio jones was a clear stud as a rookie and didn't get a thousand yards. Michael Crabtree just figured things out this year.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

Is an impact like Josh Gordon too much to ask?

50 receptions 805 yards 5 TDs 16.1ypc

I would say that if the team still has a healthy Gronk, Hernandez, Lloyd and Vereen, than yes, that looks like an unreasonable expectation to me.
I think any rookie getting more than 700 yards would be surprising unless one or more of the primary weapons gets hurt.

805 and 5 is a monster rookie wr year, even if the team has no other weapons and a QB who locks onto a primary read.

 

[manxman2601]

I would say that if the team still has a healthy Gronk, Hernandez, Lloyd and Vereen, than yes, that looks like an unreasonable expectation to me.
I think any rookie getting more than 700 yards would be surprising unless one or more of the primary weapons gets hurt.

805 and 5 is a monster rookie wr year, even if the team has no other weapons and a QB who locks onto a primary read.

Kendall Wright had 626 yards with Jake Locker and Hasselbeck throwing to him.

Justin Blackmon had 865 yards with Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne dealing the ball.

Patriot fans are way too defeatist on this WR draftee thing. We have the best QB ever throwing the ball. If the WR's are getting on the field, then they should be putting up similar numbers.

Let's just say that Bedard and Reiss are right and that neither Lloyd and Welker are back. There's potentially 2300 yards of receptions up for grabs. Why can't a rookie get Blackmon/Gordon type numbers?

 

[rabidfireweasel]

Kendall Wright had 626 yards with Jake Locker and Hasselbeck throwing to him.

Justin Blackmon had 865 yards with Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne dealing the ball.

Patriot fans are way too defeatist on this WR draftee thing. We have the best QB ever throwing the ball. If the WR's are getting on the field, then they should be putting up similar numbers.

Let's just say that Bedard and Reiss are right and that neither Lloyd and Welker are back. There's potentially 2300 yards of receptions up for grabs. Why can't a rookie get Blackmon/Gordon type numbers?

I would say that it is very possible if Lloyd and Welker both leave. However, I don't see it as 2300 yards available, unless Gronk or Hernandez get hurt. They missed a lot of games last year.

I think you are one of the best minds on the board Manx, but you are comparing apples and oranges. Justin Blackmon in the best wr on his team, and Chad Henne can accumulate yardage. I would also say that Kendall Wright is the best wr on his team. Unless a QB is truly awful, a mediocre QB can put up big numbers with a quality wr, especially if that guy is the receiving threat on the team. Jeff Blake, Aaron Brooks, David Carr, Jay Cutler, Matt Moore and Andy Dalton all say " Hi".

The problem I see in terms of the rookie wr, and I mean this in terms of statistical impact- not game impact- is that I don't see the rookie gaining enough trust to get enough targets in year 1 if Lloyd, Gronk and Hernandez stays.
I think Markus Wheaton could step right in and produce 850 and 6 if both wrs leave. If one stays, I think he is more slowly acclimated to the offense. I think if the guy is a newer fit ( a big strong guy) I definitely think there will be an adjustment period. A true playmaker would change the offense, but his value might not register when ranking rookies by statistics.

I hope NE drafts a wr or two. I just think that they system they run is very tough on rookies, especially given that there is talent ( although it is mostly TE and RB talent) to catch the ball. I have much higher hopes and expectations in year 2.

 

[manxman2601]

I would say that it is very possible if Lloyd and Welker both leave. However, I don't see it as 2300 yards available, unless Gronk or Hernandez get hurt. They missed a lot of games last year.

I think you are one of the best minds on the board Manx, but you are comparing apples and oranges. Justin Blackmon in the best wr on his team, and Chad Henne can accumulate yardage. I would also say that Kendall Wright is the best wr on his team. Unless a QB is truly awful, a mediocre QB can put up big numbers with a quality wr, especially if that guy is the receiving threat on the team. Jeff Blake, Aaron Brooks, David Carr, Jay Cutler, Matt Moore and Andy Dalton all say " Hi".

The problem I see in terms of the rookie wr, and I mean this in terms of statistical impact- not game impact- is that I don't see the rookie gaining enough trust to get enough targets in year 1 if Lloyd, Gronk and Hernandez stays.
I think Markus Wheaton could step right in and produce 850 and 6 if both wrs leave. If one stays, I think he is more slowly acclimated to the offense. I think if the guy is a newer fit ( a big strong guy) I definitely think there will be an adjustment period. A true playmaker would change the offense, but his value might not register when ranking rookies by statistics.

I hope NE drafts a wr or two. I just think that they system they run is very tough on rookies, especially given that there is talent ( although it is mostly TE and RB talent) to catch the ball. I have much higher hopes and expectations in year 2.

To be honest, I largely agree with you. And to be frank, I really don't care how productive they are for the first year anyway. We're drafting them, hopefully for a decade. I hate drafting for a one year need and I absolutely hate this idea of selling out for Brady's final years that has become so pervasive on the main board. I'm actually more concerned about the post Brady years than I am his final few and we should be drafting with that in mind.

 

[EwanSellars]

i really think we should sign one WR and draft 1 preferably signing Hartline and drafting Patton in the 2nd

 

[Patriot Missile]

Your expections aren't high, they are close to absurd. You put out 3 names who had the 3 of the top 6 strongest rookie seasons in the last 20 years (Randy Moss, Michael Clayton and AJ Green probably fill out the list) and make that your baseline for expectations. This, on a team with two- three established pass catchers. Basically, out of the hundreds of wr's drafted in the last 20 years, and with little history of drafting a good one, you expect the patriots to draft a rookie- at a pick in the 20's, who performs in the 5% historically. The question in, why?

Consider that Calvin Johnson only had 756 and 4 as a rookie. Larry Fitzgerald wasn't much better. Andre Johnson didn't get 1000 yards. Julio jones was a clear stud as a rookie and didn't get a thousand yards. Michael Crabtree just figured things out this year.

So what? Believe me,I'm well grounded when it comes to this team. Just because I throw a few names out there doesn't mean it's gonna happen. If the player drafted can stretch the field horizontally and vertically, help the team win games while making the other players successfull while being a threat himself. Isnt that great? Doesn't mean he has to catch a 100 balls, receive a 1000 yards or make incredible Moss catches.

There's always a chance a draftee just gets it right away and performs well. Theres a greater probability of that with this QB and offense. Maybe I should just lower my expectations to mediocre? That's absurd to me.

 

[manxman2601]

Just been rewatching Robert Woods. Very impressive. As much as I like Wheaton and Patton, I do think Woods and Hopkins are a step up. Certainly first round worthy.

We would be stupid not to use this draft to reboot our WR position. There is just too much talent.

 

[Username]

Just been rewatching Robert Woods. Very impressive. As much as I like Wheaton and Patton, I do think Woods and Hopkins are a step up. Certainly first round worthy.

We would be stupid not to use this draft to reboot our WR position. There is just too much talent.

Hurrah!!

Finally someone else sees what I see in Woods. I think there's been too much focus on 2012 when evaluating Woods, when he wasn't healthy. As I keep mentioning I think he's the most gifted of the WR's in a very stacked draft class

 

[manxman2601]

This is one for the Justin Hunter fans. The number of "clutch" receptions by 10 college receivers. Not sure how much it tells us but interesting all the same.

https://twitter.com/JPSTATS/status/303551540977881088/photo/1

 

[DaBruinz]

Hurrah!!

Finally someone else sees what I see in Woods. I think there's been too much focus on 2012 when evaluating Woods, when he wasn't healthy. As I keep mentioning I think he's the most gifted of the WR's in a very stacked draft class

Either that or you have become so enamored with him, you refuse to see any potential blemishes..... Such as the medical red flags on him..

 

[rabidfireweasel]

This is one for the Justin Hunter fans. The number of "clutch" receptions by 10 college receivers. Not sure how much it tells us but interesting all the same.

https://twitter.com/JPSTATS/status/303551540977881088/photo/1

Actually, to me this is a big plus for Markus Wheaton who is up over 70% despite often being a target on wr screens and quick hitters.

 

[manxman2601]

Actually, to me this is a big plus for Markus Wheaton who is up over 70% despite often being a target on wr screens and quick hitters.

Like x 100

 

[Username]

Either that or you have become so enamored with him, you refuse to see any potential blemishes..... Such as the medical red flags on him..

Not so. I appreciate it's never so black and white, and every player comes with pros and cons.

I've acknowledged his ankle injury, and indeed the mental issues since his injury (ie his tendency to let his head drop and get discouraged) as two red flags. However I'm confident the mental side of things can be worked on and he showed flashes of being back to himself towards the end of 2012 in that respect. If the ankle gets the all clear and he's available by the time the Patriots are on the board I think he would be a fantastic pick.

 

[patsinthesnow]

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings/2013/WR

9 WRs now with a 1st-2nd round grade. Then you have people like Hunter, Rodgers, Goodwin, Harper, Swope, Sanders, Vernon behind them. The WR depth in this draft is silly.

 

[Avenger]

let Welker walk and draft two mid round WRs

 

[Wilfork#75]

let Welker walk and draft two mid round WRs

I agree with the draft two WR part, but I think we need to keep Welker. We need a greater number and variety of weapons, so I don't think adding two unproven guys while taking away our most reliable target would be ideal.

 

[Wilfork#75]

Hurrah!!

Finally someone else sees what I see in Woods. I think there's been too much focus on 2012 when evaluating Woods, when he wasn't healthy. As I keep mentioning I think he's the most gifted of the WR's in a very stacked draft class

My issue with Woods is his attitude and concentration. I have watched a lot of USC games over the past 2 years and the talent there is undeniable. But he strikes me as a diva who needs the ball in his hands. If he brings that attitude to New England he is certainly going to be in for a shock when he sits on the bench. If he can be humbled, and New England might be the place to do it, then he could certainly be a quality NFL WR. My other concern is he drops a lot of passes. Its not a talent thing because he has good ball skills, but far too often he loses concentration and makes an easy and costly drop. Once again that is correctable (Julio Jones had a similar issue at Alabama) but something to take into consideration.

Overall my interest in Woods depends on value. I wouldn't touch him in the first and I would really only be interested in the 2nd if there is a big run on WR's. If he is there in the 3rd however I would love to grab him. If we double up on WR's in this draft I would certainly be happy with one in the 2nd and Woods in the 3rd.

 

[Avenger]

I agree with the draft two WR part, but I think we need to keep Welker. We need a greater number and variety of weapons, so I don't think adding two unproven guys while taking away our most reliable target would be ideal.

I think that Welker will be too expensive for the Pats to keep (which I think is too bad but that's another discussion) and anyways, keeping Welker would probably take the roster space of one of the receivers. If our WRs next year are Lloyd, Edelman, Wheaton (r), Hamilton (r), Slater I think that would be a solid WR corps. Especially with such good pass catching RBs and TEs.

 

[Wilfork#75]

I think that Welker will be too expensive for the Pats to keep (which I think is too bad but that's another discussion) and anyways, keeping Welker would probably take the roster space of one of the receivers. If our WRs next year are Lloyd, Edelman, Wheaton (r), Hamilton (r), Slater I think that would be a solid WR corps. Especially with such good pass catching RBs and TEs.

I think you would be putting a lot of faith into two rookie WR's to have a major impact. Slater is a pure STer, so you really have 4 WR's, two of which are rookies, one who is a jack of all trades and a guy who most people were disappointed with and some want cut before his roster bonus. I don't think you could even be sure that Edelman + the two rookies would match Welker's production, so I think it would be a net loss.

In terms of salary, I've come to terms with the fact that we will probably lose two of the big three free agents (Welker, Talib and Vollmer). I think Vollmer is the easiest to replace because of our success in developing O-Lineman over recent years. So I would be okay if he walked (or more ideally was tagged and traded). With the depth of free agent CB's this year I think we can get similar production to Talib with a lower cost, so I wouldn't be too upset losing him either. To me Welker is the most difficult to replace and would be the biggest loss. WR in this system is much more difficult to pick up than CB or RT, so I think we need to keep Welker to keep the offense on track.

I would much prefer a WR corps. of Welker, Lloyd, Edelman, 2nd round pick, 3rd round pick and Slater. That would likely give you 3 outside WR's, two slot WR's and a special teamer. It would take the pressure of the rookies to be big contributors from day 1 and give them time to develop, while also adding that extra dimension this offense is missing.