The Playoff Problem on Offense: Not Talent

[Deus Irae]

I don't disagree with you. Just saying that the WW drop is falls into the catagory of talent not making plays in 2011.

I hear you. I was fleshing out the 2010 point in order to explain why I'm wishy-washy about 2011. 2011 had elements of a talent issue (Welker's wasn't the only big drop, for example), but there was clearly a huge hit taken with Gronk being so limited as to be a decoy that essentially made it 10-on-11 out on the field at times.

 

[Stu Pidassle]

'06 to Indy- Missing Rodney, worst 2nd 1/2 defense ever.

You forgot the flu and the artificially inflated temps at the Hoosier Dome. I am right with you on the teams track record. With the exception of the Ravens all these games have come down to the wire. The team does not quit.

 

[The Brandon Five]

I hear you. I was fleshing out the 2010 point in order to explain why I'm wishy-washy about 2011. 2011 had elements of a talent issue (Welker's wasn't the only big drop, for example), but there was clearly a huge hit taken with Gronk being so limited as to be a decoy that essentially made it 10-on-11 out on the field at times.

I know that this has been beaten to death on the board, but I really think that the miss was on Tom.

 

[Kontradiction]

I know that this has been beaten to death on the board, but I really think that the miss was on Tom.

The more I watch that play, the more I'm not so sure. The throw certainly could have been better but the safety was closing in fast so I can certainly understand the throw to the outside shoulder. Bottom line is that the pass still hit Welker in the hands.

 

[The Brandon Five]

The more I watch that play, the more I'm not so sure. The throw certainly could have been better but the safety was closing in fast so I can certainly understand the throw to the outside shoulder. Bottom line is that the pass still hit Welker in the hands.

I'm glad this came up again. I haven't felt like killing myself in awhile.

Good times.

Anyone got an animated GIF of the Tyree catch to share? :bricks:

 

[Deus Irae]

I know that this has been beaten to death on the board, but I really think that the miss was on Tom.

Welker's got to have that.

 

[The Brandon Five]

The more I watch that play, the more I'm not so sure. The throw certainly could have been better but the safety was closing in fast so I can certainly understand the throw to the outside shoulder. Bottom line is that the pass still hit Welker in the hands.

I don't know Kontra. I wonder if Wes read it like the 99-yarder in Week 1:

Wes Welker 99 Yard TD |HD| - YouTube

Watching it again, I think you might be right. Wes did start to turn outside, but maybe a little late.

Dennis and Callahan on the play of Welker and Brady in Super Bowl XLVI - YouTube

The DB was much closer on the 99-yarder but was turned around.

I gave up drinking this week. Might need to revisit that.

 

[1%er]

The Patriots have now played six playoff games since 2007 against teams they had faced in the regular season, and the results haven't been pretty. We'll start all the way back in 2007, the Welker era, with teams the Pats played in the regular season and then the playoffs. I'll also include Brady's average YPA and YPC, along with sacks allowed.

2007

vs. San Diego
Regular: 38 points; Brady: 9.0 ypa; 11.2 ypc; 2 sacks
Playoffs: 21 points; Brady: 6.3 ypa; 9.5 ypc; 2 sacks

vs. NYG (sorry to bring this on here)
Regular: 38 points; Brady: 8.5 ypa; 11.1 ypc; 1 sack
Playoffs: 14 points; Brady: 5.5 ypa; 9.2 ypc; 5 sacks

***One thing people don't realize is that the Pats downgrade in playing San Diego a second time was similar to their debacle against the Giants. Clearly the passing game was already struggling mightily even before the SB.

2009

vs. Baltimore *Welker out, along with some major injuries
Regular: 27 points; Brady 8.1 ypa; 12.3 ypc; 3 sacks
Playoffs: 14 points; Brady 3.7 ypa; 6.7 ypc; 3 sacks

2010
vs. NYJ (for regular season, average of both games)
Regular: 34.5 points; Brady 8.7 ypa; 13.8 ypc; 2 sacks
Playoffs: 21.0 points; Brady 6.6 ypa; 10.3 ypc; 5 sacks

2011
vs. Denver
Regular: 41 points; Brady 9.4 ypa; 13.9 ypc; 2 sacks
Playoffs: 45 points; Brady 10.7 ypa; 14.0 ypc; 0 sacks

vs. NYG (this one, too)
Regular: 20 points; Brady 7.0 ypa; 12.2 ypc, 2 sacks
Playoffs: 17 points; Brady 6.7 ypa; 10.2 ypc; 2 sacks

TOTALS (AVERAGE OF ALL SIX GAMES):
REGULAR: 33.3 POINTS; BRADY 8.6 YPA, 12.4 YPC, 2 SACKS (PER GAME
PLAYOFFS: 22 POINTS; BRADY 6.6 YPA, 9.9 YPC, 2.9 SACKS (PER GAME)

Conservative Gameplans

One thing that I've always lamented about the Patriots is their conservative gameplans when the playoffs begin, and I fear that could be their downfall again this year. The Patriots rarely try to run vertical plays and go underneath more than usual; it is even rare for them to try passes down the seam or sideline outs to WRs. The exception was last year against Denver, and some of it is colder weather. Every playoff game, it seems like the offense goes into its shell, dinking and dunking, underutilizing their superstars while preferring low-risk, low-reward passes.

Pass:Run Ratio

I did not include the stats on this, as I didn't have time tonight, but many have noted that the Pats abandon the run too often, or that the running game is ineffective. That was quite apparent in the playoffs against the Jets in 2010 when the Jets activate nearly every defensive back on their roster, daring the Pats to run the ball. Obviously, a one-headed attack in the NFL can be snuffed out, even if it is Tom Brady.

Pass Protection- Myth?

It has been said that the offensive line chokes in big games and struggles to protect Brady, and allowing 3 sacks versus 2 sacks is a big difference but not the type of glaring difference you'd expect when analyzing this. Bottom line is, Brady was sacked quite a bit by some of these defenses during the regular season as well and still managed to average over 30 ppg. I find it more difficult to believe the offensive line is to blame more than the gameplans.

Yards After Catch?

Another theory that may describe the huge discrepancy is the passing game's reliance on players gaining big yardage after the catch. This could explain why the Patriots' offense tanks in the postseason more than other teams, as opposing defenses play more aggressively and at full speed... of course, it still may be a stretch that these same defenses are not playing to their full ability during the regular season.

Preparation

Final theory before posting this: perhaps opponents study the Patriots with the same intensity that the Patriots study them when the postseason begins. This may explain why studious QBs such as Brady and Manning seem to cruise the regular season before hitting some major speed bumps in the playoffs. Perhaps during the regular season, they exploit weaknesses on gamefilm; during the playoffs, they become the exploited ones.

I'm more confident this year because of are ability to run the football and the return of the screen passes which both neutralize pass rushes

 

[RobertWeathers]

I hear you. I was fleshing out the 2010 point in order to explain why I'm wishy-washy about 2011. 2011 had elements of a talent issue (Welker's wasn't the only big drop, for example), but there was clearly a huge hit taken with Gronk being so limited as to be a decoy that essentially made it 10-on-11 out on the field at times.

Couldn't agree with you more, Deus. We don't know if they would have pulled it out, but a healthy Gronk would have been far more productive and impactful on the Giants' strategy..DAMN!

 

[RobertWeathers]

You forgot the flu and the artificially inflated temps at the Hoosier Dome. I am right with you on the teams track record. With the exception of the Ravens all these games have come down to the wire. The team does not quit.

Yep. Several members of the team had the flu that game including Wilfork, Vrabel and Troy Brown.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Bottom line is that the pass still hit Welker in the hands.

Thats what I keep coming back to as well.

Could the throw have been better? Sure. Has WW made more difficult catches on balls that weren't as crisply thrown? Absolutely.

As you say Kontra, WW turned around and the ball hit him in the hands...

 

[captain stone]

...but really without enough time to adjust to the flight of the ball.

What disappointed me more about the non-catch, was that Welker for whatever reason thought
that the ball was going toward the field instead of toward the sideline, where Brady always places it
in order to avoid throwing it to the other guys. Reminded me of the 2 3rd-down passes to Gronk
during the PO loss to the Jesters; Gronk looked inwards, Brady threw it outwards. Game-changing misses.

 

[The Brandon Five]

...but really without enough time to adjust to the flight of the ball.

What disappointed me more about the non-catch, was that Welker for whatever reason thought that the ball was going toward the field instead of toward the sideline, where Brady always places it in order to avoid throwing it to the other guys.

Not always.

See my previous post about the 99-yarder against Miami. Defender was right behind Wes. Tom threw it upfield leading to the long TD. The Giants defenders were not as close as the Miami DB, but were not turned around. Maybe that's why Tom thought to go back shoulder. Wes was thinking TD and had to adjust. Hard to stop the momentum of the ball while rotating in the same direction in the air.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

...studious QBs such as Brady and Manning seem to cruise the regular season before hitting some major speed bumps in the playoffs. Perhaps during the regular season, they exploit weaknesses on gamefilm; during the playoffs, they become the exploited ones.

While I enjoyed the rest of your post, I threw up a bit on this part.

Please...16-6 is nothing like 9-10. Was 16-7 Joe Montana known for hitting major speed bumps in the playoffs?

The competition is better prepared, for sure, and the game plans are more focused. But if you want to argue that TB always hits major speed bumps in the playoffs then I think you would have to say much worse things about any QB who ever lived, assuming he played in a statistically significant number of postseason games.

 

[BradyManny]

One thing that could also be surfacing...Brady could be getting a bit fatigued. 35 years old, 637 throws, hurry-up offense all season, new daughter. Maybe it's me but it seems that hes short-armed more throws than usual this 2nd 1/2 of the season. The one to Gronk vs MIA when he was split-out wide is an example. The guy may need a break both physically and mentally.

I worry about fatigue and the throws - but I think the throw to Gronk was a miscommunication. Brady threw it right to the sticks, Gronk kept running. I think he's playing really well at the moment, and the offense is just waiting for a few guys so the whole unit to perform consistently at the level we've come to expect.

Brady had a couple off games this year. I thought his accuracy dipped around the end of November, the NYJ blowout and the first MIA game, but he has been on since the Houston game, outside of a couple ill advised throws. Any deficiencies in the offense since then have been as the unit as a whole. Outside of the aforementioned games, I think Brady's play was MVP level, and just about as high as ever.

As an individual, I think he's executing better than anyone on the offense right now. Which is what we need.

 

[BradyManny]

Welker's got to have that.

Me watching that:

Welker dropped the ball before he went to catch it. That was a lobbed toss from Brady, and Welker had plenty of time to read it and adjust his route. He didn't until the last second.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Me watching that:

Welker dropped the ball before he went to catch it. That was a lobbed toss from Brady, and Welker had plenty of time to read it and adjust his route. He didn't until the last second.

This just makes me remember how overblown this "drop" was. Welker's momentum was clearly taking him away from his body, and it was difficult to bring the ball back into it. It wasn't a perfect throw, nor was it a fantastic catch that could have been made. Patriots lost the SB for a lot of reasons; there were much easier drops than that throughout the game, including in the 4th quarter with Hernandez and Branch. I am also not convinced the Pats win it even if they'd converted that play.

There are balls throws every quarter that are just a bit off and the WR doesn't come down with it. Pats played mistake free ball the whole game except for ONE throw that got intercepted, while the Giants were extremely lucky once again that their fumble (or was it 2?) bounced their way. Other than that, it was a very evenly matched game and the turnovers, or lack thereof, were the difference.

 

[The Brandon Five]

This just makes me remember how overblown this "drop" was. Welker's momentum was clearly taking him away from his body, and it was difficult to bring the ball back into it. It wasn't a perfect throw, nor was it a fantastic catch that could have been made. Patriots lost the SB for a lot of reasons; there were much easier drops than that throughout the game, including in the 4th quarter with Hernandez and Branch. I am also not convinced the Pats win it even if they'd converted that play.

There are balls throws every quarter that are just a bit off and the WR doesn't come down with it. Pats played mistake free ball the whole game except for ONE throw that got intercepted, while the Giants were extremely lucky once again that their fumble (or was it 2?) bounced their way. Other than that, it was a very evenly matched game and the turnovers, or lack thereof, were the difference.

There were three fumbles. Two recovered by the Giants, one recovered by the Pats but that recovery was negated by a penalty.

In my opinion, the game was lost on the very first Pats play on offense.

Vollmer just got straight-up beat, but I have no idea why the rest of the line is standing around watching Tom in the endzone. Also, it looks like Wes is signaling that he is open and that BJGE is about to get open.

Feck.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

I am also not convinced the Pats win it even if they'd converted that play

4 minutes and 6 seconds left, with the Giants having only one timeout left, Pats up 17-15, with 1st down and 10 on the Giants 21.

At minimum we'd make them use their last TO, take the clock to the two minute warning, and kick a FG to go up 5. Another first down, though, and they'd have never seen the ball again.

I'd say our chance of victory would have been, conservatively, 90%.

 

[RobertWeathers]

4 minutes and 6 seconds left, with the Giants having only one timeout left, Pats up 17-15, with 1st down and 10 on the Giants 21.

At minimum we'd make them use their last TO, take the clock to the two minute warning, and kick a FG to go up 5. Another first down, though, and they'd have never seen the ball again.

I'd say our chance of victory would have been, conservatively, 90%.

....and a TD makes it 99.9%...I need a drink.