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Wide Receiver thoughts


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How can they be screwed if Lloyd goes down? That would be the same exact offense from last season that carried the team to 13-3 despite a historically bad pass defense.

If Welker goes down, sure you'll see a dropoff but Edelman has proven to be a capable slot reciever and you still have Gronk/AH/Lloyd/Branch as solid to elite targets. In no way would they be screwed. 2+ injuries to top targets, then you may see struggles but the same can be said for any reciever set in the league.

Exactly. Once you lose two of your top receiving options (be they WR or TE), it becomes more about your defense and running game stepping up, as there's only so much you can expect too far down the depth chart.
 
I strayed over to the Gaffney thread and found out that 13 pages later, he was STILL released,. ;) But the conversation over there got me thinking about HOW I was thinking about the WR situation and came up with a couple of thoughts I'd like some feedback on.

1. Our base offense is some combination of the 2 TE's, 2WR's and a single RB. I'm thinking more than 70% of our offense is going to come out of some combination of this base

2. I think people have lost sight of the fact that Lloyd has replaced Branch, not Ocho as the Z receiver. Ocho was the #3 WR in an offense where the #3 WR lost relevance as the season wore on.

3. Lloyd is NOT a deep threat in the traditional sense. In other words blowing by a CB and creating separation through speed or acceleration. That's never going to happen. Lloyd's ability to be a deep threat depends on him being able to be better than the DB going after the ball. We have to understand that every deep ball LLoyd is going to catch will come with a DB standing right next to him Its his ability to gain body position, NOT his speed, that makes him a special receiver,

4. The back shoulder throw is one that Brady had gone pretty much his entire career without throwing on a regular basis. Now its important that it become an integral part of his arsenal. We've seen it tried a few times so far, and clearly its a work in progress. If Lloyd is going to be as successful a contributor as we all hope, Brady is going to have to get good at this pass. Success at it, will open up so much more.

5. Gaffney's release was a surprise to me. I'm guessing its the injury. There are a couple of receiver starved teams right in our own division who would have already pounced on him if he were healthy. It could be that the Pats already have an understanding that when he's healthy he'll be back. It could be that he's down for a couple of weeks and nothing will happen with anyone until he's not.

Just a hunch, but I don't think Gaffney is gone forever.

6. The depth Chart now got easier. Branch now backs up Lloyd. Edelman backs up Welker and it will be interesting to see who will be the choice when/if the Pats go to 3 WRs.

7. But its not a big deal who because don't think we will be in what we'd normally call a 3 wide set as often as one might think because of the Hernandez factor. Its not so much about having 3 WRs out there its having 5 immediate targets. Well between Gronk, Herandenz ,Lloyd, Welker and a RB, (ie Woody, Demps, Vareen) we have that pretty much covered WITHOUT going to a 3rd WR. Who the 3rd WR is could be a moot point in this offense.

8. One of the reasons I was down on Branch was that he didn't play ST's and tkhe perception he only played the outside (Z) WR. I think that in his swan song with the Pats. McDaniel is going to use Branch more all over the field in certain spots. More of a jack of all trades per se. This will increase his value even though his snaps decrease. Whether he survives his forays in the middle of field is another story. But right now Branch's primary role will be to back up Lloyd and play in sub packages.

9. We started the off season rife with receivers. We spent the bulk of TC trying to figure out how we were going to squeeze 7 guys on our 53's. Now as the reality of the season descends on us, its becoming more likely that FIVE is the final number...and that number might include Slater. Because that's probably the number, especially if we have 4 TE's in our future.

10. Given our dependence on the TE position, I think its wise to keep 4, one back up each for Gronk (Fells) and Hernandez (Shiancoe). However if we do that, then I can't justify carrying a FB, when one of the TE's can do the blocking the few times we want to go to the "I".

11. Think back to back in early April when we had Gonsales, Gaffney. and Stallowrth, plus assorted camp bodies, and reconcile it to now when the position seems almost thin. What's the expression "We've come a long ways, baby". Or as Spock would say at this point "Fascinating"

I have been guessing by my previous posts, that since BB brought so many older players to camp, that BB intended to tke a fuller advantage of the only avenue remaining to add players and depth, ie the "Shadow Roster".

Recall the attributes of a potential Shadow Roster candidate, as I think Belichick sees them.


1) He is an older ex-starting quality veteran star, who has lost some stamina as he has gotten older.

2) He has gotten into shape, and refreshed (or learned) his memory of the Patriot's Playbook.

3) He has played with the Team before, ideally, so he knows BB ways and BB knows him too.

4) He is "too Old" to be a realistic option for most teams, so he likely won't be picked up by them.

5) In short bursts, he can be as good as ever, he just can't sustain for a season. Not does BB expect him to do so. BB wants him for a few plays per game, or for a few games.

6) He may have the itch to continue playing; or he simply wants a Ring.

Potential candidtes that I identified, including some rether far fetched ones included: Matt Light, Gerard Warren, Kevin Faulk, Donte Stallworth, Jabbar Gaffney, Deon Branch, Dan Koppen, and Brain Waters, some of whom may make the Team outright, while others have no intention to play another snap.

I suggest that both G Warren and J Gaffney are likely, and perhaps more than likely, to rejoin the Team sometime after the first game. Recall that if he is not on the team roster for the first game, an entire years salary does not have to be payed. Payment can almost be on a per game basis.
 
I disagree that the Pats look pathetic at the WR department. Have you looked at the WR corps around the league? Right now, none of the the other AFC East teams have a decent #2 starter and only the Bills have a good #1 starter. And that isn't even looking at their depth. And you think the Pats look pretty pathetic at WR depth.

The Pats have one of the best WR starter duos in the league and are three WR deep and very few teams have good WRs four deep. I challenge you to come up with 10 teams that have far superior depth than the Pats. if the Pats are pathetic this should be easy.

Rob they are no Dez White - Hakeem Nicks or Victor Cruz on this Team. One can debate that Welker will not be on this Team next year based on the $$$ he might be looking for. Where does that leave us then? Where is that young Stud WR in the wings?
 
I strayed over to the Gaffney thread and found out that 13 pages later, he was STILL released,. ;) But the conversation over there got me thinking about HOW I was thinking about the WR situation and came up with a couple of thoughts I'd like some feedback on.

1. Our base offense is some combination of the 2 TE's, 2WR's and a single RB. I'm thinking more than 70% of our offense is going to come out of some combination of this base

2. I think people have lost sight of the fact that Lloyd has replaced Branch, not Ocho as the Z receiver. Ocho was the #3 WR in an offense where the #3 WR lost relevance as the season wore on.

3. Lloyd is NOT a deep threat in the traditional sense. In other words blowing by a CB and creating separation through speed or acceleration. That's never going to happen. Lloyd's ability to be a deep threat depends on him being able to be better than the DB going after the ball. We have to understand that every deep ball LLoyd is going to catch will come with a DB standing right next to him Its his ability to gain body position, NOT his speed, that makes him a special receiver,

4. The back shoulder throw is one that Brady had gone pretty much his entire career without throwing on a regular basis. Now its important that it become an integral part of his arsenal. We've seen it tried a few times so far, and clearly its a work in progress. If Lloyd is going to be as successful a contributor as we all hope, Brady is going to have to get good at this pass. Success at it, will open up so much more.

5. Gaffney's release was a surprise to me. I'm guessing its the injury. There are a couple of receiver starved teams right in our own division who would have already pounced on him if he were healthy. It could be that the Pats already have an understanding that when he's healthy he'll be back. It could be that he's down for a couple of weeks and nothing will happen with anyone until he's not.

Just a hunch, but I don't think Gaffney is gone forever.

6. The depth Chart now got easier. Branch now backs up Lloyd. Edelman backs up Welker and it will be interesting to see who will be the choice when/if the Pats go to 3 WRs.

7. But its not a big deal who because don't think we will be in what we'd normally call a 3 wide set as often as one might think because of the Hernandez factor. Its not so much about having 3 WRs out there its having 5 immediate targets. Well between Gronk, Herandenz ,Lloyd, Welker and a RB, (ie Woody, Demps, Vareen) we have that pretty much covered WITHOUT going to a 3rd WR. Who the 3rd WR is could be a moot point in this offense.

8. One of the reasons I was down on Branch was that he didn't play ST's and tkhe perception he only played the outside (Z) WR. I think that in his swan song with the Pats. McDaniel is going to use Branch more all over the field in certain spots. More of a jack of all trades per se. This will increase his value even though his snaps decrease. Whether he survives his forays in the middle of field is another story. But right now Branch's primary role will be to back up Lloyd and play in sub packages.

9. We started the off season rife with receivers. We spent the bulk of TC trying to figure out how we were going to squeeze 7 guys on our 53's. Now as the reality of the season descends on us, its becoming more likely that FIVE is the final number...and that number might include Slater. Because that's probably the number, especially if we have 4 TE's in our future.

10. Given our dependence on the TE position, I think its wise to keep 4, one back up each for Gronk (Fells) and Hernandez (Shiancoe). However if we do that, then I can't justify carrying a FB, when one of the TE's can do the blocking the few times we want to go to the "I".

11. Think back to back in early April when we had Gonsales, Gaffney. and Stallowrth, plus assorted camp bodies, and reconcile it to now when the position seems almost thin. What's the expression "We've come a long ways, baby". Or as Spock would say at this point "Fascinating"

So is this the thread where we can talk about the WR position, but do so taking into consideration things like the Pats' TEs? Because apparently we can't do that in the other thread.

It does seem pretty obvious, not only from a statistical basis but also from a financial one (i.e., the contracts the Pats just made with Gronk and Hernandez) that they will focus on the TEs. I see the base offense being Welker, Lloyd, Gronk, Hernandez, and Ridley, for the most part. Insert Fells/Shiancoe/Woodhead/Ridley/Branch/Edelman as needed.

I think the Pats will keep 4 TEs, both as protection against injury, and because Hernandez can line up wide and be a big target isolated outside the hash marks. He's fast enough (he runs a 4.56 in the 40, which is faster than what Jerry Rice ran), and he's certainly big enough (6'2", 250 lbs). So they could even go with a 3 TE set and go heavy, but then run Hernandez outside.

The flexibility of Hernandez will allow the Pats to keep just 5 true WRs and go with 4 TEs. Really, they'd then have 3 TE, 5 WR, and 1 TE/WR combo player. That should be sufficient depth in both positions. If you had a TE corps of Gronkowski, Fells, and Shiancoe, you'd say that's probably the best TE group in the NFL. Then, thinking of Hernandez as a big WR, it would mean the WR group would have Welker, Lloyd, Hernandez, Branch, Edelman, and Slater. That also is a really strong group.
 
One thing that kind of disappoints me is that the Patriots still have not tried to develop a big athletic WR. I suppose Hernandez fits that role, but I'd like to see them at least have somebody in the pipeline. As it stands right now, the Patriots look pretty pathetic at WR depth.

However, I would not be surprised if they added somebody cut from one of the other teams.

Couldn't have said it any better myself...last FA WR crop was the best by far i am sorry we only came out with Lloyd. I am going to be watching P. Garson - R. Meacham and V. Jackson they were very high on my FA list and guys i wished were Patriots last FA.
 
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Rob they are no Dez White - Hakeem Nicks or Victor Cruz on this Team. One can debate that Welker will not be on this Team next year based on the $$$ he might be looking for. Where does that leave us then? Where is that young Stud WR in the wings?

For that matter, where are we the year after that, and after that?

Seriously, try and worry yourself to death one year at a time. It's easier to accomplish smaller goals than all at once.
 
In the Patriots offense, WR and TE are labels that have less and less meaning.

What they have are talented players who are matchup nightmares. What they still lack (quite possibly by design) is a pure burner who can take the top off the defense.
 
Rob they are no Dez White - Hakeem Nicks or Victor Cruz on this Team. One can debate that Welker will not be on this Team next year based on the $$$ he might be looking for. Where does that leave us then? Where is that young Stud WR in the wings?

Dez White? You mean the crappy WR who bounced from Arizona and Chicago the early part of last decade?

You mean Dez Bryant? I might want Dez White instead. Wait until the Cowboys cut Bryant and the Pats can get Bryant. The guy has never had a 1,000 yard season and is such a screwed up individual that he has around the clock security to protect him not from crazy fans, but himself.

People biatched and moaned that the Pats can't develop WRs and they should get a good one through free agency after Chad Jackson and now people are complaining about them not developing them now. I will worry about next year and the future after the season is over. The development of a young WR is a moot point at this point. They aren't likely to find on on waivers in the next week.
 
Couldn't have said it any better myself...last FA WR crop was the best by far i am sorry we only came out with Lloyd. I am going to be watching P. Garson - R. Meacham and V. Jackson they were very high on my FA list and guys i wished were Patriots last FA.

Did you see what guys like Garcon and Jackson signed for? No thanks! It isn't like one team signed two or three of those guys. Jackson got 5 years, $55 million with $26 million guaranteed and $36 million of the money being paid out in the first three years. If the Pats signed Vincent Jackson is unlikely the Pats would have been able to extend either Gronk or Hernandez.

Personally, I am damn happy the Pats got Lloyd. For this system, he might be the best option (Jackson would have been the best WR, but he cost way too much money). Lloyd thrives under McDaniels and he came really cheap. He is capable of being a Pro Bowl WR.
 
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I disagree that the Pats look pathetic at the WR department. Have you looked at the WR corps around the league? Right now, none of the the other AFC East teams have a decent #2 starter and only the Bills have a good #1 starter. And that isn't even looking at their depth. And you think the Pats look pretty pathetic at WR depth.

The Pats have one of the best WR starter duos in the league and are three WR deep and very few teams have good WRs four deep. I challenge you to come up with 10 teams that have far superior depth than the Pats. if the Pats are pathetic this should be easy.

Did I miss the list of teams/direct response to this question? I didn't see it.
 
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Dez White? You mean the crappy WR who bounced from Arizona and Chicago the early part of last decade?

You mean Dez Bryant? I might want Dez White instead. Wait until the Cowboys cut Bryant and the Pats can get Bryant. The guy has never had a 1,000 yard season and is such a screwed up individual that he has around the clock security to protect him not from crazy fans, but himself.

People biatched and moaned that the Pats can't develop WRs and they should get a good one through free agency after Chad Jackson and now people are complaining about them not developing them now. I will worry about next year and the future after the season is over. The development of a young WR is a moot point at this point. They aren't likely to find on on waivers in the next week.

I meant Dez Bryant.:cool:
 
We really don't, so I see us keeping a 4th TE instead.
I completely disagree about the notion of a fourth tight end on the roster. First, the maximum number of tight ends on game day will be three. Second, Visanthe Shiancoe has not been seen on the practice field since the first week in training camp. Third, Visanthe Shiancoe does not provide special teams value.

Bill Belichick has found a new toy in Jeff Demps, who unlike Visanthe Shiancoe, does provide special teams value. Jeff Demps, in the long run, could become the shorter version of ex-Gator Percy Harvin. In essence, a roster spot will be needed for Demps which will come at the expense of the fourth tight end position.
 
Welker is the best at what he does, catches balls over the middle. He did have some success early last season catching the deeper balls, but please don't piss on me and tell me it is raining.

Welker catches 90% or more of his balls between the hashes and is usually tackled fairly quickly. He isn't going to get the Patriots 10 TDs or have a 14+ YAC. Welker is a move the chains kind of guy and that is fine. But, there is a significant reason why the Patriots haven't signed him to a mult-year deal yet.

Teams with comparable/more dynamic Wrs than the Pats:
Giants
49ers
Cowboys
Eagles
Packers
Falcons
Bengals
Saints
Chargers
Bears
 
Welker is the best at what he does, catches balls over the middle. He did have some success early last season catching the deeper balls, but please don't piss on me and tell me it is raining.

Welker catches 90% or more of his balls between the hashes and is usually tackled fairly quickly. He isn't going to get the Patriots 10 TDs or have a 14+ YAC. Welker is a move the chains kind of guy and that is fine. But, there is a significant reason why the Patriots haven't signed him to a mult-year deal yet.

Teams with comparable/more dynamic Wrs than the Pats:
Giants
49ers
Cowboys
Eagles
Packers
Falcons
Bengals
Saints
Chargers
Bears

Giants I'll give you.

49ers? We have no idea what Moss has left, Crabtree hasn't lived up to the hype yet. They have Manningham who's decent and that's about all that's guaranteed.

Cowboys? They're #3 is Ogletree who had 15 catches last year. Also, Bryant is one tequila shooter away from getting suspended by his own team.

Eagles are good.

Packers definitely.

Falcons - Branch is a better #3 than Harry Douglas, but otherwise comparable.

Bengals? Really? Brandon Tate is listed as one of their starters. Give me a break.

Saints definitely.

Chargers - Let's see what Meachem can do without Brees, the dome, and three better receivers (plus Graham) drawing coverage away from him. Otherwise, their receivers a whole lot of "meh..."

Bears - Adding Marshall doesn't change the fact that Hester is their #2 WR and he had less than 30 catches last year. He's all flash and no substance.

I'll give you four of the teams on your list. The rest, I'll take the Pats.
 
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Lloyd's ability to be a deep threat depends on him being able to be better than the DB going after the ball.
True, but don't short sell his ability to gain separation with moves before the ball is unloaded. He can fake guys out of their jock straps and get impressive separation. There's lots of video of the guy well behind defenders. I wondered how until I saw what he does during the route. He has devastating moves that put him at an advantage. If they stick with him then he does have the skillset that you mentioned.

I like Lloyd and Welker as a combo. I'd like to see them reach the statistical elite level as a combo. We shall see.
 
True, but don't short sell his ability to gain separation with moves before the ball is unloaded. He can fake guys out of their jock straps and get impressive separation. There's lots of video of the guy well behind defenders. I wondered how until I saw what he does during the route. He has devastating moves that put him at an advantage. If they stick with him then he does have the skillset that you mentioned.

I like Lloyd and Welker as a combo. I'd like to see them reach the statistical elite level as a combo. We shall see.

I think the only way that happens is if it comes at a cost in reduced stats for Gronk and Hernandez. There's only so many passes to go around.

(I can say that here because in this thread, we can include TEs when we talk about receivers.)
 
Nice thoughts on the original post.

I'm usually optimistic, but right now the WR situation concerns me a bit. Here are my issues:

In the 2010 playoff game against the Jets, Rex Ryan went 1 deep all night long and trusted outside coverage to his CBs. That game him 1 extra guy to stick to the midfield on either spying duties, zones, doubling our inside receivers or covering the run/screen plays.

In that game, we should have learned one lesson the hard way: If we cannot bring in a group that forces the opponent to stretch the field vertically, then all they need to make TBs life miserable are 2 talented corners.

In 2010, sure there was the "when the going gets tough, abandon the run" mentality going on with TB and OBrien, but nonetheless our personnel grouping is still looking like it lacks one dimension. The vertical one.

Its not so much about completing deep passes, as it is about forcing the opponent to account for that possiblity. If they play bold and reckless like Ryan did in the 2010 playoffs, then TB has to thread a needle on every throw in the short and intermediate inside routes. We know he can do it, but not on every down.

McD loves to run, and he loves screens. But he also loves the deep pass, which usually complements those two very well. That is why releasing both Gaffney and Stallworth amazed me. Now we have only 1 legit outside receiver who can burn CBs. I'm sorry to say this, but as reliable as Branch is, he is no longer an outside threat against a talented corner.
 
Welker is the best at what he does, catches balls over the middle. He did have some success early last season catching the deeper balls, but please don't piss on me and tell me it is raining.

Welker catches 90% or more of his balls between the hashes and is usually tackled fairly quickly. He isn't going to get the Patriots 10 TDs or have a 14+ YAC. Welker is a move the chains kind of guy and that is fine. But, there is a significant reason why the Patriots haven't signed him to a mult-year deal yet.

Teams with comparable/more dynamic Wrs than the Pats:
Giants
49ers
Cowboys
Eagles
Packers
Falcons
Bengals
Saints
Chargers
Bears

Welker averaged 6.2 Yards after the catch last year. That is more yards after the catch than Calvin Johnson (5.7), Steve Smith (5.9), Roddy White (3.8), Brandon Marshall (4.2), and a lot of the other top receivers last year. Considering Welker is catching the ball in heavy traffic a lot, that is damn impressive. In fact, one of his greatest strengths is making the first defender to him miss him. Your description of him is wrong.

BTW, Gaffney had 2.9 YAC last year.

NFL - Statistics by Category - Yahoo! Sports

As for the teams you listed, Sicilian did a good enough job rebutting your list. I would just be redundant.
 
We have no idea what Moss has left,
Good point, but also we don't know how Smith is going to act getting him the ball. In fact I have some doubts that down field threats are anything but hot air with an offense that thrives in ball control situations. I think it might be all decoys rather than big numbers.

Either Smith does things we've never seen (possible but not likely) or Moss is going to melt down from being the league's biggest decoy.
 
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