It Looks Like No Long term Deal between Pats and Welker

[RobertWeathers]

Welker's main role is not to "move the chains". Welker's main role is to catch short/medium passes.
This is a perfect example of what I'm talking about with you and why this is useless.

It absolutely is. WW's main role is to keep the offense moving by giving TB a reliable target to achieve first downs. If it is all short passes, medium passes or long passes, the team doesn't really care how it gets them.

And you've not produced what you claim you've produced. I'm sorry that you're unwilling to admit something that obvious, but when Andy and I are both pointing that out to you (and he and I haven't been agreeing on all that much in recent years), that should be a clue that you may be overrating your claims.

Why would you and Andy both agreeing make me rethink my position? Do you both work for Belichick? Your arrogance is amazing to me. In actuallity, Andy admitted that a player's production falls off in the playoffs while you have failed to do so.

 

[BradyManny]

I hate myself for going back through playoff box scores over the last five years, but....

Welker has been responsible for 23% of Brady's yardage in the postseason.

In that same time, he has been responsible for 27% of Brady's yardage in the regular season.

And just to give you an idea of how small the postseason sample size is, if Welker had hauled in that pass from Brady, it would jump to just shy of 25%. :bricks:

 

[PatsFanSince74]

OK.

We're 481 posts into this thread.

So, I'll just come out and ask whether people think this would all have played out differently if, in the immortal words of Gisele, Welker had just been able to "catch the damn ball?"

Welker's twisting, off-balance catch to seal the Super Bowl victory would have been the stuff of legend and would forever have occupied a place towards the top of Patriots Highlight Reels.

So, what do people think?

Would the Pats have found a way to work a deal, even if it meant putting out more money than they wanted to put out, under those circumstances?

Personally, I think a Fourth Ring for Belichick and Brady, and what we all know that would have implied in terms of sealing their legacy vis a vis Montana and Bradshaw and Noll, would have tilted the argument in that direction.

If you're going to disagree with me, please spare us all the pious pap about how the Krafts "do things" and "look for the future." I'm familiar with it.

Remember, this would have been a fourth Lombardi for the greatest HC and QB this franchise has ever known, putting them forever in the pantheon of the greatest in the history of the NFL and, indeed, all sports.

Would the Krafts have "bent the rules" for that? I'm saying, "Yeah, I think so."

 

[BradyManny]

Welker's twisting, off-balance catch to seal the Super Bowl victory would have been the stuff of legend and would forever have occupied a place towards the top of Patriots Highlight Reels.

I hate to revisit this. But if we are - it was "twisting and off-balance" b/c he didn't play it right. Maybe that's b/c he didn't expect it on the back shoulder. But if he hadn't slowed down into his turn, he catches that thing in stride. Brady lofted it (mistake?) so that Welker could adjust. And he didn't.

Even if they connected, that play wouldn't wind up on either's highlight reel. They both made mistakes.

Look, it's painful to think about. Everything we as Patriot fans wanted was right there in front of us in a unique opportunity we'll never ever have again. It's come and gone. We need to stop looking backwards b/c I assure you the team has, and b/c there's more important things in life than football...

 

[JMarr]

OK.

We're 481 posts into this thread.

So, I'll just come out and ask whether people think this would all have played out differently if, in the immortal words of Gisele, Welker had just been able to "catch the damn ball?"

Welker's twisting, off-balance catch to seal the Super Bowl victory would have been the stuff of legend and would forever have occupied a place towards the top of Patriots Highlight Reels.

So, what do people think?

Would the Pats have found a way to work a deal, even if it meant putting out more money than they wanted to put out, under those circumstances?

Personally, I think a Fourth Ring for Belichick and Brady, and what we all know that would have implied in terms of sealing their legacy vis a vis Montana and Bradshaw and Noll, would have tilted the argument in that direction.

If you're going to disagree with me, please spare us all the pious pap about how the Krafts "do things" and "look for the future." I'm familiar with it.

Remember, this would have been a fourth Lombardi for the greatest HC and QB this franchise has ever known, putting them forever in the pantheon of the greatest in the history of the NFL and, indeed, all sports.

Would the Krafts have "bent the rules" for that? I'm saying, "Yeah, I think so."

Personally I don't think it would make a difference, partly because the Pats don't really pay for past performance/production--they only look forward, which Welker's case is making glaringly obvious.

And do you want to rehash the "non-catch" debate again? Seriously? For the umpteenth time, it would have been an incredibly difficult catch for Welker to make. For a man 8 inches taller, whom the route designed for, not so much.

IT WAS A TEAM LOSS, PERIOD. It's absolutely ludicrous IMO to think that the Pat's would hold that one missed catch against Wes Welker in contract negotiations, whether it was in the Super Bowl or not.

 

[Joker]

post 486...c'mon Welker...make the damn catch!!

sorry for the interruption...please..continue

 

[Deus Irae]

post 486...c'mon Welker...make the damn catch!!

sorry for the interruption...please..continue

Take heart. Rookies report to camp today.

 

[Joker]

thank whatever deity you guys pray to..or not...this has been murder the last two months...

 

[patfanken]

thank whatever deity you guys pray to..or not...this has been murder the last two months...

.....and Fox News is reporting that Francisco Franco is STILL dead.

 

[Ivan]

It absolutely is. WW's main role is to keep the offense moving by giving TB a reliable target to achieve first downs. If it is all short passes, medium passes or long passes, the team doesn't really care how it gets them.



Why would you and Andy both agreeing make me rethink my position? Do you both work for Belichick? Your arrogance is amazing to me. In actuallity, Andy admitted that a player's production falls off in the playoffs while you have failed to do so.

Go take a look at Brady's QB ratings and Completion pct. pre and post Welker, there is a significant difference. Welker has been instrumental in Brady's success and that of their offense, and his ability to get open instantly has saved Brady from a beating many many many times. He's their primary target and has been for years, and it isn't at all surprising that his numbers take a hit when the best defensive teams in football focus on taking away their best weapons in play-off games. trying to suggest that diminishes his value in any way is ridiculous because it in no way measures the openings he creates for others by being so productive and so dangerous. How anyone can watch him week in and week out and come away with the conclusiions those ripping on him come away with is beyond me, he's a great football player, and that's the reason Brady calls him the best player on their team. He's not blowing smoke up his @ he's serious. The patriots should have given him a fair market deal even if only for three years, if anyone has earned it and would live up to it then it is Welker.


What's next, Wilfork doesn't get enough sacks and hasn't won a Super Bowl so get rid of him? Did you see the sack he missed in the AFC Championship? He's over 30. They could get a second round pick for him. His arms are short and look at his combine shuttle times. Ron Brace could easily replace him and they would have money to sign Chung. he's got fewer sacks in the play-offs than regular season.


For people to watch these players, cheer for them, see them play great football week in and week out, play hurt and play well, and exemplify everything a team would want in any player, and then turn on them and spout ridiculous faux GM crap about their value is as ludicrous as it gets. Welker passes both the eye test in terms of performance and the numbers test in terms of production, but since he wasn't drafted he will never measure up to the faux GM test, wherein self proclaimed experts who don't know sh.t spew garbage about them and find every avenue to run them down. It's BS, plain and simple.

 

[robbomango]

Welker's 2007 post season production was pretty solid, 27rec, 213yds, 2tds.

2010 was his injury recovery year and 2011 we had no speed or depth at WR, coupled with an injured Gronk in the SB and I can't knock the guy to hard.

Her'es another receiver that doesn't match or out perform their regular season production.

Marvin Harrison
regular season average..................85rec, 1121yds, 9tds
Post season numbers(16games).......65rec, 883yds, 2tds

Just the basic stats, no YAC, 1st down's etc.

I'm lazy

 

[robbomango]

You have to admit the guys consistent, 6-8rec's and 60+yds a game almost guaranteed.

 

[goheels22002]

OK.

We're 481 posts into this thread.

So, I'll just come out and ask whether people think this would all have played out differently if, in the immortal words of Gisele, Welker had just been able to "catch the damn ball?"

Welker's twisting, off-balance catch to seal the Super Bowl victory would have been the stuff of legend and would forever have occupied a place towards the top of Patriots Highlight Reels.

So, what do people think?

Would the Pats have found a way to work a deal, even if it meant putting out more money than they wanted to put out, under those circumstances?

Personally, I think a Fourth Ring for Belichick and Brady, and what we all know that would have implied in terms of sealing their legacy vis a vis Montana and Bradshaw and Noll, would have tilted the argument in that direction.

If you're going to disagree with me, please spare us all the pious pap about how the Krafts "do things" and "look for the future." I'm familiar with it.

Remember, this would have been a fourth Lombardi for the greatest HC and QB this franchise has ever known, putting them forever in the pantheon of the greatest in the history of the NFL and, indeed, all sports.

Would the Krafts have "bent the rules" for that? I'm saying, "Yeah, I think so."

The two years at $16 million is a better benchmark for what they would have done than winning the Super Bowl. The Patriots knew they had a lot of uncertainties to deal with and Welker was just one piece.

They were determined to use the draft to get the two #1s on defense which put some rookie pressure on payroll and had several key veterans to deal with in a year with a flat cap. They chose to tag Welker as soon as they could do so, and to their delight (and Welker's checking account) he signed the tender.

The window is closing on the Brady era. The upgrades they've made were needed regardless, so no, Welker's process played out the way it did for the large number of other reasons.

This thread is great. It's like "The Closer" or one of those ensemble character actor shows that get us from the end of the regular TV season to the new one in the Fall. All sorts of drama and shenanigans by the major characters as they kill off the occasional evil character that shows up for an episode or two. I'm surprised Amica hasn't bought an ad on this thread.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

OK.

We're 481 posts into this thread.

So, I'll just come out and ask whether people think this would all have played out differently if, in the immortal words of Gisele, Welker had just been able to "catch the damn ball?"

Welker's twisting, off-balance catch to seal the Super Bowl victory would have been the stuff of legend and would forever have occupied a place towards the top of Patriots Highlight Reels.

So, what do people think?

Would the Pats have found a way to work a deal, even if it meant putting out more money than they wanted to put out, under those circumstances?

Personally, I think a Fourth Ring for Belichick and Brady, and what we all know that would have implied in terms of sealing their legacy vis a vis Montana and Bradshaw and Noll, would have tilted the argument in that direction.

If you're going to disagree with me, please spare us all the pious pap about how the Krafts "do things" and "look for the future." I'm familiar with it.

Remember, this would have been a fourth Lombardi for the greatest HC and QB this franchise has ever known, putting them forever in the pantheon of the greatest in the history of the NFL and, indeed, all sports.

Would the Krafts have "bent the rules" for that? I'm saying, "Yeah, I think so."

No

Why would they?

That's the whole point and not accepting this is what produced 500 posts.

The Patriots have a system and assign future value. If that value can't be reconciled, it's time to move on.

Look at thr roster...they are prepared to move on.

Look at playoff stats.

Counter this with

2009- blows out knee
2010- "Feet" comments require disciplinary action.
2011- Drops ball to seal game.

Does mean that Wes needs to be singled out?

No

Has he earned some mystical exemption status?

No

Likewise, He also hasn't been martyred because of failure for the organization to meet his demands.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Go take a look at Brady's QB ratings and Completion pct. pre and post Welker, there is a significant difference. Welker has been instrumental in Brady's success and that of their offense, and his ability to get open instantly has saved Brady from a beating many many many times. He's their primary target and has been for years, and it isn't at all surprising that his numbers take a hit when the best defensive teams in football focus on taking away their best weapons in play-off games. trying to suggest that diminishes his value in any way is ridiculous because it in no way measures the openings he creates for others by being so productive and so dangerous. How anyone can watch him week in and week out and come away with the conclusiions those ripping on him come away with is beyond me, he's a great football player, and that's the reason Brady calls him the best player on their team. He's not blowing smoke up his @ he's serious. The patriots should have given him a fair market deal even if only for three years, if anyone has earned it and would live up to it then it is Welker.


What's next, Wilfork doesn't get enough sacks and hasn't won a Super Bowl so get rid of him? Did you see the sack he missed in the AFC Championship? He's over 30. They could get a second round pick for him. His arms are short and look at his combine shuttle times. Ron Brace could easily replace him and they would have money to sign Chung. he's got fewer sacks in the play-offs than regular season.


For people to watch these players, cheer for them, see them play great football week in and week out, play hurt and play well, and exemplify everything a team would want in any player, and then turn on them and spout ridiculous faux GM crap about their value is as ludicrous as it gets. Welker passes both the eye test in terms of performance and the numbers test in terms of production, but since he wasn't drafted he will never measure up to the faux GM test, wherein self proclaimed experts who don't know sh.t spew garbage about them and find every avenue to run them down. It's BS, plain and simple.

It's Thursday and this is still coming in.

The ultimate expectation of letting the idiots run wild in the asylum.

 

[Kontradiction]

So have you guys heard about this situation with Wes Welker?

 

[RobertWeathers]

Go take a look at Brady's QB ratings and Completion pct. pre and post Welker, there is a significant difference. Welker has been instrumental in Brady's success and that of their offense, and his ability to get open instantly has saved Brady from a beating many many many times.

Stop. Not in a single post have I attacked WW. All I have stated is that his YPC, YAC, YPG and 1st downs per catch have gone down in the playoffs. Other posters have stated hes had the same level of production in the playoffs and he hasnt. In addition I'd stop short of saying WW has saved Brady from a beating many times. TB had the 2nd highest sack total of his career last year and the trend has been going up the past 3 years. The oline and Brady's pocket presense and quick release have also been contributing factors to him not to be the next Tony Eason.

. He's their primary target and has been for years, and it isn't at all surprising that his numbers take a hit when the best defensive teams in football focus on taking away their best weapons in play-off games. trying to suggest that diminishes his value in any way is ridiculous because it in no way measures the openings he creates for others by being so productive and so dangerous. .

Not once have I suggested or said that his value has been diminished because of his playoff production. All I've done is show that there is a dropoff in WWs production in the playoffs.

How anyone can watch him week in and week out and come away with the conclusiions those ripping on him come away with is beyond me, he's a great football player, and that's the reason Brady calls him the best player on their team. He's not blowing smoke up his @ he's serious. The patriots should have given him a fair market deal even if only for three years, if anyone has earned it and would live up to it then it is Welker. .

I agree 100% but for reasons only they know, the Pats don't, can't and won't. 3/$27m w/ $18m guaranteed w/ say $23m earned in the 1st two seasons seems reasonable but what do I know...

What's next, Wilfork doesn't get enough sacks and hasn't won a Super Bowl so get rid of him? Did you see the sack he missed in the AFC Championship? He's over 30. They could get a second round pick for him. His arms are short and look at his combine shuttle times. Ron Brace could easily replace him and they would have money to sign Chung. he's got fewer sacks in the play-offs than regular season. .

Wilfork isn't up for an extention and signed his deal when he was 28.5 years old. If sure if VW wanted a 3 year deal and big money now, the Pats would treat his negotiation very differently and offer different terms. The Pats do not pay VW to sack the QB 10 times a season. They pay him to anchor the front 7 and stop the run.

For people to watch these players, cheer for them, see them play great football week in and week out, play hurt and play well, and exemplify everything a team would want in any player, and then turn on them and spout ridiculous faux GM crap about their value is as ludicrous as it gets. Welker passes both the eye test in terms of performance and the numbers test in terms of production, but since he wasn't drafted he will never measure up to the faux GM test, wherein self proclaimed experts who don't know sh.t spew garbage about them and find every avenue to run them down. It's BS, plain and simple.

I've never turned on WW. I just pointed out that his ypc, yac, ypg and 1st down success % goes down in the playoffs when others said it didn't.

As a fan, there is nothing wrong with liking a player but looking at his production objectively is well within our rights also.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Welker's 2007 post season production was pretty solid, 27rec, 213yds, 2tds.

2010 was his injury recovery year and 2011 we had no speed or depth at WR, coupled with an injured Gronk in the SB and I can't knock the guy to hard.

Her'es another receiver that doesn't match or out perform their regular season production.

Marvin Harrison
regular season average..................85rec, 1121yds, 9tds
Post season numbers(16games).......65rec, 883yds, 2tds

Just the basic stats, no YAC, 1st down's etc.

I'm lazy

Without looking at rankings, 2/3rds of his games were vs statistically-speaking top 5 or top 10 defenses.

Suprised a little by the sizaable dropoff though...

 

[RobertWeathers]

So have you guys heard about this situation with Wes Welker?

Working from home this week and wife and kids are away. Pathetic that I am spending my days arguing about playoff stats but what the hell....

 

[MoLewisrocks]

The two years at $16 million is a better benchmark for what they would have done than winning the Super Bowl. The Patriots knew they had a lot of uncertainties to deal with and Welker was just one piece.

They were determined to use the draft to get the two #1s on defense which put some rookie pressure on payroll and had several key veterans to deal with in a year with a flat cap. They chose to tag Welker as soon as they could do so, and to their delight (and Welker's checking account) he signed the tender.

The window is closing on the Brady era. The upgrades they've made were needed regardless, so no, Welker's process played out the way it did for the large number of other reasons.

This thread is great. It's like "The Closer" or one of those ensemble character actor shows that get us from the end of the regular TV season to the new one in the Fall. All sorts of drama and shenanigans by the major characters as they kill off the occasional evil character that shows up for an episode or two. I'm surprised Amica hasn't bought an ad on this thread.

Two years $16M isn't a benchmark for anything beyond the 3 years $18.5M they were actually willing to pay him a year ago since that 2 year $16M offer wasn't on the table this spring.

Under the new CBA those rookies aren't putting any pressure on the payroll. They tagged Welker on the last day they could.

The window has not yet begun to close on the Brady era.

Welker wasn't signed for the same reason neither Givens nor Branch were and Gaffney wasn't retained. Because Belichick doesn't value the WR position at anything approaching market value despite the near insurmountable difficulty encountered in locating anyone who can play the position within this system the way it demands. And because the one time he did pay a guy top of the market to remain here at age 31 that guy failed to deliver the same production value thereafter and eventually he became a sufficient organizational headache that they had to move on from him. And because at the moment Belichick is in posession of every WR still playing who ever had success within the system. Albeit all at age 31 or older.

Next season if Welker is gone and Branch is gone and Gaffney and Stallworth (if he even makes the roster) and Lloyd all end up hitting that wall at 32 everyone insists exists, while Wes doesn't somewhere else, the same people presently defending their decision and downplaying Welker's value will be berserk because teams will be having a comparative field day limiting the two shiny young TE's...and Edleman if he's-re signed... Well, let's just say they won't be championing Belichick the GM... Not to mention they will probably be screaming for the head of McDaniels the once again incompetent coordinator. And they will likely be lobbying for the Mallett era to commence.

And anyone who points this thread out to them will or how easily he could have been retained will be attacked for trying to play the told you so card. Because that's kind of the way it always goes here.