Kiper: Patriots Reached on Day Two

[patsfaninpa]

Ok, so it's not BB's fault at all, just TFBs? Every game is unique, and it takes a team to win, TFB was not under the kind of pressure in those other SBs that he was in SB42, he was also playing injured in SB 42.

You seem to want to give all of the credit to Tom. And, none of the blame when we lose. Who the hell do you think put those players around Brady? Our OL cost us Super Bowl 42. To say anything about how Belichick drafted to build an 18-1 team is f'n absurd and you know it. You can blame our defense for SB 46. But, there was a stupid safety taken by our qb to start the game that put us in a whole and an int when we were trying to get up 2 scores. And, Joe Montana was the best qb ever FWIW. Look up his Super Bowl Stats. No turnovers.

 

[Snake Eyes]

"BB & co. wanted to trade one of their 2nd-round picks into 2013, because they weren't enamored with this crop. The problem was that NOBODY was enamored. For the first time in memory, there was not a single draft-day trade for a future pick. So no luck trading #48 for future value as time ran down.

Given that, they just decided to secure the last piece they knew they wanted before the draft was done: a safety. That way they'd be in position to trade away #62 if the opportunity arose. And Wilson was their top-rated safety. Notice that all of the other db's fans wanted were slightly built CBs, with the exception of Trumaine Johnson, who was a character risk (and once again, they drafted nothing but respected team captains)."

There's the rub, they rated a guy very highly who looks like crap. Since the pick I've looked at film on him and don't see anything that would make me say "I want this guy", and the scouting reports I've read confirm that opinion.

 

[Snake Eyes]

You seem to want to give all of the credit to Tom. And, none of the blame when we lose. Who the hell do you think put those players around Brady? Our OL cost us Super Bowl 42. To say anything about how Belichick drafted to build an 18-1 team is f'n absurd and you know it. You can blame our defense for SB 46. But, there was a stupid safety taken by our qb to start the game that put us in a whole and an int when we were trying to get up 2 scores. And, Joe Montana was the best qb ever FWIW. Look up his Super Bowl Stats. No turnovers.

Do one need to hate vanilla ice cream in order to like chocolate ice cream?

No, I said 'TFB doesnt deserve all the blame', that is NOT the same thing as saying 'he doesn't deserve ANY blame'.

 

[resdubwhite]

I will have a problem if he stinks and is a bust.

Its fair to say BB won't be happy either.


But Safety is a position of need. BB tried to address that with this pick.

It may not work out. But the 2nd round has given us our fair share of busts.

 

[PATSNUTme]

I'll repost this here from the day 3 thread.

Mike Mayock, who I respect more than Kiper, just said with the Wilson and Jake picks yesterday, plus the 1st day picks the Patriots have hit a home on this years draft.,FWIW.

Les Miles, HC of LSU, said that both Hightower and Jake will wreck havoc. he's had to game plan against both

 

[patsfaninpa]

Do one need to hate vanilla ice cream in order to like chocolate ice cream?

No, I said 'TFB doesnt deserve all the blame', that is NOT the same thing as saying 'he doesn't deserve ANY blame'.

You said Belichick's failure to draft db's cost us Super Bowl 42. That's a joke. He put together one of the best teams in the history of the league. You take a weak shot at him about some db's that didn't work out.

 

[Armchair Quarterback]

You seem to want to give all of the credit to Tom. And, none of the blame when we lose. Who the hell do you think put those players around Brady? Our OL cost us Super Bowl 42. To say anything about how Belichick drafted to build an 18-1 team is f'n absurd and you know it. You can blame our defense for SB 46. But, there was a stupid safety taken by our qb to start the game that put us in a whole and an int when we were trying to get up 2 scores. And, Joe Montana was the best qb ever FWIW. Look up his Super Bowl Stats. No turnovers.

The D was handed the lead with 4 minutes to go and couldn't hold onto it.

Montana also lost 3 NFCCG, one of which he was benched for poor play. So by your argument, he's better because he lost in the Championship Game rather than the Super Bowl.

 

[DW Toys]

There is a reason for the Wilson pick.

We just don't know it yet.

I'm going with coaches instincts here.

Yep, Reason? The Ghost of Al Davis. This pick was from Al Davis' last Draft class. It would make sense that the N.E. "WE DRAFT FOR VALUE" Patriots didn't even think of his most overused noun, "value" as "Just win baby" Al was in the Draft room and his haunting made the Pats not only give away a round two pick at #62 but defecate the sleeping furniture @ #48......Als' pick is a borderline NCAA football talent. Watched his game film. His best talent is gunner. Al made us blow a second rounder for a gunner? Are you ready for this????............James Sanders was even better!

Josh Barrett, Sterling Moore and Kyle Arrington and maybe even Dowling slept very well last night. Sergio Brown slept like a baby!

DW "VALUE" Toys

 

[Deus Irae]

I still hesitate to call it a reach, though, given we don't have all the information. As I said, SD worked Wilson out and took a safety after the Pats. For all we know they would have taken Wilson at 49. We just...don't...know. And that's the problem with this massive draft analysis market. For all the resources that Kiper and his ilk have at their disposal they don't have the team draft boards. So while it's fine to speculate that Wilson would have gone much later in the draft--based on published rankings--I think it's also fine to say those media rankings are garbage and they don't have nearly the information that NFL teams do.

In the grand scheme of things none of this matters...if Wilson works out then we'll all be happy and won't give a damn even if it comes out that no other team wanted Wilson in this draft.

Hesitate all you want. It'll still be a huge reach when you're done hesitating, but that's of only minor consequence, which is the point. It's a reach. It happens. Sometimes they work out and sometimes they don't. If/when the kid pans out, it'll be fodder for the "BB's a freaking genius and don't you dare question him!" crowd. If/when the kid bombs, it'll be fodder for the "BB's a lousy drafter after the first round!" crowd. The bottom line is that the team may, or may not, have left value on the floor when picking this kid, but we'll never know because we'll never be able to trust what anyone says on the matter. Importantly, though, it will have been something that allowed lots of people to pass a little time and have some back-and-forth with no harm done.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Seriously?

In baseball, hitting at a 30% rate is successful. Right. 40% is excellent. So you are going to apply that benchmark for success to selecting draft picks?

Good. How about applying it to QB completion rate. Would you be happy with Brady if he connected at 40%?

How about coach's winning percentage. Would you be happy with Belichick if he won 40% of his games? Hey, in baseball hitting, that would be world class?

Another argument here is that Belichick knows more than us, and more than the analysts. Absolutely. That's correct. But, anyone see the couple hundred hours of NFL draft programming? See the magazines? The websites? This is not the NFL draft over the phone from 1967. This is now a big industry. Analysts are paid to track a thousand or more prospects. They watch tape. They go to the Combine. They speak to coaches. They consult with guys like Polian and Casserly who have built teams.

So sure, Belichick knows more than the rest of us. But it's not like no one had heard of this kid. It's just that the scouting reports were bad. Corner safety, limited in coverage, special teams contributor.

Another argument is the 'Vollmer wasn't invited to the Combine' metaphor. He wasn't invited, and he is good. So, if she floats, then.... she's made of wood. And wood burns. What else burns? Syllogistically, all things not invited to the Combine are not starting right tackles.

At the time the Patriots took Tavon Wilson, Kendall Reyes, Vinny Curry, Rueben Randle, Josh Robinson, and others were available. Pats could have grabbed one of them, and taken Wilson with the Third or Fifth.

We'll see if Wilson makes more impact than them.

The baseball analogy? Yeah seriously....

Everyone who ever drafted someone has a bust. Dispense with the (insert name) was bust......because it's absolutely going to happen. In fact, it will happen more with teams that draft more players because more draftees doesn't mean a bigger roster.

I also love the Vinny Curry was on the board mentality. So what? You can't be so dense as to think the Patriots have never heard of Vinny Curry?

Yeah, I bet BB was sitting in the warroom scrambling through his papers saying, "Who is Vinny Curry?......"

Here's what important and knowable

Defense was targeted in the draft.
Part of this was the secondary.
Specific criteria was defined
Comprehensive work was done on finding the right guy
The guy wanted was available at 48 and drafted

We will learn if the kid can play.

Management identified the need, found the guy, and drafted. That what needed to happen.

You are mad
You wanted Vinny Curry.
You have zero influence
You can't prove he would be available later. If I am wrong, publish all 31 other draft boards, NOW.
You know squat

BTW, water is wet, pain hurts, and fire is hot.

 

[Dragda]

Good question. Yes, it does.

It's also the opportunity cost of passing on players available at 48 who also are (more) likely to turn into good players.

Furthermore, taking him later seems as if it was a viable option.

But since Bill has apparently internalized the conviction he's the smartest guy in the room and had already made his mind that he was going to trade down at 62, he went for the position at need.

Also, more needs to be made of the atrocious trade down out of the second for the paltry value. Wheeling and dealing for the sake of the fuss.

Sometimes I wish we could be more like the Steelers and let the players fall to us. Sometimes it works for us, like with Hightower and Gronk, but sometimes it works against us more than we may realize.

BB subscribes to the Jimmy Johnson philosophy of making sure you get your guy. These types of picks (Mankins, Vollmer) usually work out while sometimes they don't (Ben Watson).

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Just for the record, BB's lousy drafting outside of the first round has prevented the best QB in the history of the game from winning a SB since Feb. 2005, the date of our last victory.

I didn't realize that BB's drafting was responsible for a flu bug going through the locker room or 12-men-on-the-field penalties. . . .

 

[State]

Teams work out players all the time. There's nothing inherently meaningful in that, esp. in that he didn't attend the Combine or any games after his season.

Mike Reiss and others here seem to be hanging their hats on that fact. So what if Jacksonville or Kansas City worked him out? That in itself means what, exactly?

We worked out Alshon Jeffery just prior to the draft. Does anyone think he was going to be the pick of one of our firsts because of it? Maybe we were just curious to see what kind of player he was if he were to slide down the second round and be available at 48. Who knows? We'd have to ask the people who make the calls, an impossibility.

I think teams were likely considering Tavon Wilson for the latter rounds, like the fifth round. Remember he was projected as a 6-7 rounder. Or even a free agent. Fifth would have been early for him, judging by his lackadaisical play, according to conventional thinking. And I'm all in favor of violating conventional thinking, which I happen to do all the time.

But how many INTs did he have? I can't remember if his career tally was two or three.

Real ball hawk there.

Look at the parade of players we had go through Foxboro, the vast majority of which I don't think we were planning on drafting.

We have been experts at blowing false smoke signals.

Maybe we got snookered into taking this player by the very device we've used against other teams, hoisted by our own petard.

 

[resdubwhite]

It matters in terms of potentially lost value/opportunity, which is what this team preaches in the draft. It doesn't matter as far as play on the field.

But we don't know if anyone was looking to trade at 48. If they were then your argument has merit. If the team were forced to make the pick at 48 then they trust their board and make their decision.


How it all works out will unfold over the autumn winter months.

 

[Ring 6]

Re-read my fifth paragraph.

Just for the record, BB's lousy drafting outside of the first round has prevented the best QB in the history of the game from winning a SB since Feb. 2005, the date of our last victory.

Your 5th paragraph basically says you know it was a reach but can't prove it.
I was asking what basis you have to know that.
However your second comment kind of answers it for me. You are one of those, so there is no chance at a reasonable discussion.
I'll chalk it up to you think its a bad decision because that loser Belichick made it and move on.

 

[Deus Irae]

But we don't know if anyone was looking to trade at 48.

Absolutely correct.

If they were then your argument has merit. If the team were forced to make the pick at 48 then they trust their board and make their decision.


How it all works out will unfold over the autumn winter months.

It's a reach even if another team was going to take the player, because that just means that more than one team was willing to reach. It's a reach even if the only reason they took the player was that they couldn't trade out of the position (which would be odd since the pick behind them was traded).

A reach is when a player is picked well ahead of where the punditry's general consensus for that player's draft range was, nothing more (although individual analysts will call picks reaches based upon just their own boards). The Wilson draft pick was a reach, by definition. Now we hope that the reach works out.

 

[PATSNUTme]

Re-read my fifth paragraph.

Just for the record, BB's lousy drafting outside of the first round has prevented the best QB in the history of the game from winning a SB since Feb. 2005, the date of our last victory.

I'm a moderator, so I shouldn't post this. However, that statement shows how beyond stupid you really are.

BB's drafting caused Tryee's head catch with Rodney on him all the way? BB's drafting cause Welker to drop the ball or Brady to throw an ill advised int?

Do you even watch the games? I think it's time to remove you from this thread for your own good.

 

[LiveShot]

Kiper also said the Pats "reached" for Logan Mankins. If he was as good as advertised he'd be working for an NFL team.

 

[Snake Eyes]

You said Belichick's failure to draft db's cost us Super Bowl 42. That's a joke. He put together one of the best teams in the history of the league. You take a weak shot at him about some db's that didn't work out.

WHEN DID I EVER SAY THAT?

Stop putting words in my mouth and take a damn class in reading comprehension.

 

[Calciumee]

Lets see him play, then see if he is a reach!

If he becomes a HoFer (not saying he will) he'll be a steal!