Rising and Falling

[strongside]

Weeden in the first blows me away. Silatolu in the first would be a surprise due to his competition.

Lot of people sleeping on Jeffrey including myself. When you look at this youtube highlight reel and the total ownage of Alabama's secondary back in 2010 you got to wonder how gifted of a player are you going to pass on here.

Alshon Jeffery vs. Alabama (2010) - YouTube

One thing that Mayock mentioned that is a concern with Jeffrey is that a lot of his catches were contested which shows he doen't get good seperation. In the very limited clips I've seen it seems accurate.

 

[jmt57]

New Orleans just signed Seattle free agent David Hawthorne.

As a result I'm guessing the Seahawks may be targeting BC LB Luke Kuechly with the 12th pick.

 

[rookBoston]

Even that might not be enough. Discussed on twitter today? Shea McLellin to the Chargers @18.

Wha?!? Well, if they want to spend #18 on it, they're very welcome to do that I'm sure. I love McClellin as a prospect, but no way in hell I trade up for him. Anyway, don't the Chargers need two or three offensive linemen urgently?

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

Dave Stachelski, TE from Boise, 5th round in 2000

Doesn't BB have Stachelski picture / name on his wall to remind him about drafting guys who do not want play?

 

[captain stone]

New Orleans just signed Seattle free agent David Hawthorne.

As a result I'm guessing the Seahawks may be targeting BC LB Luke Kuechly with the 12th pick.

It looks more & more like Philly - who could really, really use Kuechly - won't have the opportunity to bypass him after all. They'll probably take one of the OTs now, at least I hope they do. The more offensive players taken before 27, the better for us.

 

[UK_Pat37]

Lots of talk about players rising and falling. Some of that, and how it might impact the Pats:

- Dontari Poe (falling), after getting shocked by this incredible measurables at the Combine, seems like draft gurus are taking another look at his game film... and deciding that he's maybe not that great after all. What it means to us: Fletcher Cox will probably go even higher than we thought, d%#*!@t, and probably out of range. Poe might come into range for us, but is he someone we want to spend an early pick on? If he dropped to #31, that might start to feel like value. But I'm not too eager to trade up for it.

- Courtney Upshaw (falling), after showing no particular improvement during his Pro Day after a disappointing Combine. What it means to us: a sure fire Top-15 pick dropping into the 20s would be a nice treat. If he lasts to #27, I think BB will pull the trigger, setting what I think is the floor on Upshaw's freefall.

- Shae McClellin (rising), all my efforts to not talk too much about McClellin are for naught now that Mayock has upgraded him to the #2 DE/OLB on his board after Melvin Ingram, and ahead of Andre Branch and Whitney Mercilus. NFL.com news: Draft positional rankings: Pro days influence player stocks Thanks for nothing, Mayock. What it means to us: no chance that he's stilling there at #48 anymore. Now, if we want him, it'll probably cost us #31.

- Michael Floyd (rising), his film is making an impression and it seems people are more willing to overlook his off-field stuff. What it means to us: not a damn thing, since we wouldn't have traded that high for him anyway. But maybe it creates a bit of a scramble for WRs in the first round, pulling Wright and Hill higher than they might have gone, and pushes some of the defensive players down towards us.

- Brock Osweiler (rising), hearing rumors that Osweiler and Weeden may get consideration at the bottom of the first round for QB needy teams like Cleveland and Miami. Maybe they're just saying that to justify passing on Tannehill. But, whatever. What it means to us: could only be good news if some team is willing to give us solid trade value for one of our first round picks.

- Stephon Gilmore (rising), Gilmore has always been a 2nd round prospect, but now people are starting to slot him ahead of Kirkpatrick and Jenkins. wtf? I don't buy it, but that doesn't mean I like Kirkpatrick or Jenkins any better than I did last week. What it means for us: maybe nothing. I think the 1st round CBs are sketchy as a group. I'd rather take Minnefield or Hosley in the 2nd.

Never rated Poe as a top 20 prospect. He's not even a first round prospect in my eyes because of the fact his tools are extremely raw. If you want day one value you need a day one starter and I think even if he does start, he'll struggle immensely. The only thing I can go on for him is tremendous upside which is enough for a lot of teams to reach into the first round. So in the 20s he's tolerable but from a Patriots perspective he's just not the answer. Brockers is another guy I'd see value in the 20s but no higher...don't see a day one starter in him either. IMO Crick can two-gap better than this guy right now.

I just don't know what to make of Upshaw. The guy isn't athletic enough for me. He lacks the size and length which could mean he gets engulfed by top NFL tackles at both OLB and DE. He isn't very explosive, isn't very fast. He has some good smarts which make up for lack of speed. So many 'Bama prospects get bigged up too much because of the program...he could be another one. Hightower, Barron and Kirkpatrick are the real deal though.

Shea McClellin I've been in love with for a while from watching his tape. I would put a first round grade on this guys film without a doubt and he's worth a pick somewhere towards the end of the first. I'd like to see him add some more weight in order to set the edge if asked to play OLB, but he makes up for what he lacks there with his hand use. Pad level can get down a little but he rarely gets locked up at the point of attack. Played in a hybrid at Boise and he'd start here day one.

As for Gilmore, he's a second round prospect. No way is he better then Kirkpatrick or Jenkins. If a team overlooks Jenkins' character issues then he's a sure top 20. Gilmore may go in the 20s but for me he only just cracks my top 5.

 

[Mark Morse]

Totally. I just had to be that guy. I was surprised to see no Clemson guys, though.

Why? They are as dumb as rocks! Lowest qualification standards of any ACC school, and thats not just the athletes!

 

[Mark Morse]

If Kirkpatrick falls to #27, then you know that Saban has talked ugly about the kid to a lot of teams.

No ... Kirkpatrick was D-Bag in the interviews at the combine. Now lets couch that statement a bit. He may have been playing them ... pushing himself to get drafted by a team he wants and basically telling the other teams to piss off!

 

[patsinthesnow]

NFL Draft - 2012 NFL Draft Prospects - CBSSports.com - NFLDraftScout.com

Can anyone of the draftniks around here explain the "J.J Watt" effect to me, that has spread to Fletcher Cox?

In the latest CBS rankings, he is listed as the 7th best prospect! How does a player over a period of three months steadily go from early 2nd, to late first, to mid-late first, to mid-first, to top 15 pick, and now supposedly a top 10 pick, just like J.J Watt last year.

I understand a sudden jump caused by a combine/pro-day, but I don't understand how players gradually move up over time...,

 

[Patriot Missile]

NFL Draft - 2012 NFL Draft Prospects - CBSSports.com - NFLDraftScout.com

Can anyone of the draftniks around here explain the "J.J Watt" effect to me, that has spread to Fletcher Cox?

In the latest CBS rankings, he is listed as the 7th best prospect! How does a player over a period of three months steadily go from early 2nd, to late first, to mid-late first, to mid-first, to top 15 pick, and now supposedly a top 10 pick, just like J.J Watt last year.

I understand a sudden jump caused by a combine/pro-day, but I don't understand how players gradually move up over time...,

Cox already had good game film and showed he could rush the passer from the DT position. Basically solidified it all together with an excellent combine which showed not only is he a player that knows football but he is also a terrific athlete.

 

[rookBoston]

Cox already had good game film and showed he could rush the passer from the DT position. Basically solidified it all together with an excellent combine which showed not only is he a player that knows football but he is also a terrific athlete.

Agree.

Plus, I think people confuse the success of the team with the success of the individual. On tape, Cox is consistently winning his match ups. People's predispositions come into play, but start to fade closer to draft day, when you project the player into your team, not with respect to his college team.

I think we see the opposite with the vaunted, national championship winning Alabama defensive players. Upshaw, for example, is sliding as people take a closer look at him in isolation from his teammates. Will he be as effective without a shut down secondary and a stout interior defensive front?

 

[captain stone]

Cox already had good game film and showed he could rush the passer from the DT position. Basically solidified it all together with an excellent combine which showed not only is he a player that knows football but he is also a terrific athlete.

In addition, as an underclassman (3rd-yr Jr, IIRC) his eval process didn't really begin until after the Senior Bowl. His & other non-seniors' rises therefore can be more pronounced during the past 2 months than the rises of seniors. Jerod Mayo is a good example of this phenomenon.

 

[ATippett56]

NFL Draft Risers and Fallers - CBSSports.com - NFLDraftScout.com

 

[captain stone]

It would no longer surprise me to discover that, after the 1st round has concluded,
Courtney Upshaw's name was not called.

 

[rookBoston]

It would no longer surprise me to discover that, after the 1st round has concluded,
Courtney Upshaw's name was not called.

Well, that would only surprise me because it means that BB would have to pass on him twice. A big, strong intuitive football player, part of a National Championship team, coached up by his buddy Saban? I think it would be hard not to see value at #27 and certainly at #31.

 

[jmt57]

Tampa Bay just cut starting safety Tanard Jackson. That means there could be a greater possibility that they draft a safety on day one or two; that in turn could mean that an already thin group of safeties will be at an even higher premium. Obviously this is not good news for the Pats, as safety was probably their weakest position last year; there is a good chance the top three or four safeties will all go earlier than they otherwise deserve to be drafted, due to supply and demand.

Bucs Beat: Team has options at free safety | TBO.com

One Tampa Bay fans might want to get to know a little better is Harrison Smith, a chiseled 6-foot-2, 213-pound Notre Dame product who most scouts rate as a second-round talent and some see as a top-50 pick.

Beyond his size, one of the things that might make Smith attractive to the Bucs is his versatility. Scouts say he is accomplished at both free and strong safety and also can play strongside linebacker.

He's a leader, too, both on and off the field. Smith is the only Irish player to record 200 tackles, 15 tackles for loss and 15 pass breakups in a career. He was twice named a team captain at Notre Dame.

The Bucs, as you may remember, are big on team captains. Six of the eight players they drafted a year ago were college team captains, so Smith seems to fit the bill of a player the Bucs not only need but want.

 

[DaBruinz]

It looks more & more like Philly - who could really, really use Kuechly - won't have the opportunity to bypass him after all. They'll probably take one of the OTs now, at least I hope they do. The more offensive players taken before 27, the better for us.

Kuechly is a MLB. The Eagles just added Demeco Ryans to be their middle linebacker. Care to explain why they would still be interested in Kuechly?

 

[State]

It would no longer surprise me to discover that, after the 1st round has concluded, Courtney Upshaw's name was not called.

Good point.

Other names I predict won't make it in the first round--

HB Doug Martin (Boise State), WR Rueben Randle (LSU), OT Mike Adams (Ohio State),
DE Devon Still (Penn St.), DT Jerel Worthy (Michigan State), DT Kendall Reyes (Connecticut),
ILB Donte Hightower (Alabama), CB Janoris Jenkins (North Alabama).

I think Pittsburgh is going to use its first on one of the stronger positions in this draft: OT. Bobby Massie I hear is flying up the boards. He's a great fit for them.

 

[IllegalContact]

NFL Draft - 2012 NFL Draft Prospects - CBSSports.com - NFLDraftScout.com

Can anyone of the draftniks around here explain the "J.J Watt" effect to me, that has spread to Fletcher Cox?

In the latest CBS rankings, he is listed as the 7th best prospect! How does a player over a period of three months steadily go from early 2nd, to late first, to mid-late first, to mid-first, to top 15 pick, and now supposedly a top 10 pick, just like J.J Watt last year.

I understand a sudden jump caused by a combine/pro-day, but I don't understand how players gradually move up over time...,

don't know who ever had him in the 2nd round. I figured he would not get to 27 even before the combine.

 

[State]

The same thing happened with Ty Warren the year the Patriots drafted him. His size and explosiveness in the first 10 yards in the 40 helped created the perfect storm of group think.

Last season we saw it with Von Miller's amazing Combine--he zoomed from a late first to the second player taken.

I suspect we'll see a last second rising of Bruce Irvin; his times in the 40, 3-cone, and shuttle's were by far the best at the combine.

Irvin's athleticism is easily on par or beyond Von Miller's.

It's a spreadsheet league.