I thought it might be instructive to look a Patriot WR statistical productivity year to year for comparative purposes, given the interest in the debate. It will come as no surprise that I continue to use Football Outsider's statistics.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr.php
Specifically, in this case I'm using their DPAR measure, as measures total point productivity above replacement across the season, vs DVOA, which measures average performance per play. You can add total WR DPAR together to get a team WR DPAR, but you can't add WR DVOA without weighting it ny passes attempted. Also, DPAR is in points, which is a useful measure.
Here are the summary total WR DPAR results:
2006 32.6
2005 60.5
2004 61.6
2003 50.0
2002 22.4
2001 42.6
So perhaps to the surprise of some, the statistics support the eyeballs that see this year's WR productivity as being weak comparatively, the weakest of any year except 2002, the one non-playoff year the the bunch.
The individual data (see below) shows that the bulk of this fall off being caused by losing the contribution of our top WR (Branch) and not replacing it. Our #1 this year (Caldwell) is producing at a #2 level. What's worse, our #2 (Brown) is not producing at the #3 levels of the past 3 years. So it's as if we lost our #1 and #3 receivers.
The numbers suggest retaining Branch might have given us nearly the same productivity as 2005/4. Retaining Givens alone might have restored us to 2003 numbers. Retaining both and adding Caldwell might have given us the best WR we had in this period.
Notes:
2006 is projected, i.e. I used 16/14 of the present 28.6, i.e. I assume that performance to date will project for for the last two games
Playoff performance is not included. This is the only choice to get a baseline for comparison across the years involved.
WR's with less than 10 catches are not included.
WR rushing, passing or teams contribution not included, even though this can be measurable David Patten in 2001 contributed 8.6 pts of value receiving and 4.7 more rushing.
Football Outsider's caveat's apply particularly:
Also synergies with TE's, the running game, defense, and special teams are not included, although do note that the FO system is based on contribution per play, so many of these factors are indirectly included: WR whose NFL stats are padded by 7 yard catches on 3-10 will not be credited much in this system, for instance.
Individual Data: (name, DPAR)
2006 (14 games)
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Caldwell 13
Brown 5.3
Jackson 5.0
Gabriel 3.9
Gaffney 1.4
2005
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Branch 27.5
Givens 12.8
Brown 11.6
Dwight 8.0
Davis 0.6
2004
-----
Givens 21.4
Patten 18.6
Branch 16.7
Brown 3.6
Johnson 1.3
2003
-----
Branch 19.3
Givens 18.0
Brown 14.8
Patten 0.8
Ward 0.6
Johnson -3.5
2002
-----
Patten 9.0
Branch 8.2
Brown 5.2
Givens -0.6
Hayes -3.8
2001
-----
Brown 31.0
Patten 8.6
Glenn 5.7
Johnson -2.7
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr.php
Specifically, in this case I'm using their DPAR measure, as measures total point productivity above replacement across the season, vs DVOA, which measures average performance per play. You can add total WR DPAR together to get a team WR DPAR, but you can't add WR DVOA without weighting it ny passes attempted. Also, DPAR is in points, which is a useful measure.
Here are the summary total WR DPAR results:
2006 32.6
2005 60.5
2004 61.6
2003 50.0
2002 22.4
2001 42.6
So perhaps to the surprise of some, the statistics support the eyeballs that see this year's WR productivity as being weak comparatively, the weakest of any year except 2002, the one non-playoff year the the bunch.
The individual data (see below) shows that the bulk of this fall off being caused by losing the contribution of our top WR (Branch) and not replacing it. Our #1 this year (Caldwell) is producing at a #2 level. What's worse, our #2 (Brown) is not producing at the #3 levels of the past 3 years. So it's as if we lost our #1 and #3 receivers.
The numbers suggest retaining Branch might have given us nearly the same productivity as 2005/4. Retaining Givens alone might have restored us to 2003 numbers. Retaining both and adding Caldwell might have given us the best WR we had in this period.
Notes:
2006 is projected, i.e. I used 16/14 of the present 28.6, i.e. I assume that performance to date will project for for the last two games
Playoff performance is not included. This is the only choice to get a baseline for comparison across the years involved.
WR's with less than 10 catches are not included.
WR rushing, passing or teams contribution not included, even though this can be measurable David Patten in 2001 contributed 8.6 pts of value receiving and 4.7 more rushing.
Football Outsider's caveat's apply particularly:
DPAR and DVOA include all passes intended for the receiver, both complete and incomplete. Catch % represents the percentage of passes to this receiver completed. This is a reference to incomplete passes, not dropped passes: dropped passes are not specified in publicly available play-by-play, and unfortunately we cannot yet correct for this.
* We cannot yet fully separate the performance of a receiver from the performance of his quarterback. Be aware that one will affect the other.
* These statistics measure only passes thrown to a receiver, not performance on plays when he is not thrown the ball, such as blocking and drawing double teams.
* "Points scored due to plays" is based on a larger model of how yards are translated into points, and is not a measurement strictly of touchdown passes.
* All fumbles are considered equal, whether recovered by the offense or defense.
Also synergies with TE's, the running game, defense, and special teams are not included, although do note that the FO system is based on contribution per play, so many of these factors are indirectly included: WR whose NFL stats are padded by 7 yard catches on 3-10 will not be credited much in this system, for instance.
Individual Data: (name, DPAR)
2006 (14 games)
-----
Caldwell 13
Brown 5.3
Jackson 5.0
Gabriel 3.9
Gaffney 1.4
2005
-----
Branch 27.5
Givens 12.8
Brown 11.6
Dwight 8.0
Davis 0.6
2004
-----
Givens 21.4
Patten 18.6
Branch 16.7
Brown 3.6
Johnson 1.3
2003
-----
Branch 19.3
Givens 18.0
Brown 14.8
Patten 0.8
Ward 0.6
Johnson -3.5
2002
-----
Patten 9.0
Branch 8.2
Brown 5.2
Givens -0.6
Hayes -3.8
2001
-----
Brown 31.0
Patten 8.6
Glenn 5.7
Johnson -2.7