2011 Patriots Roster Predictions

[TheSolderKing]

I was hoping that Price would see some reps out there.Is it too early to say terrible bust pick?

it will come down to Tate v. Price he missed a year I like him and he seems like a better route wunner. Tate is our only Deep-Threat so I do think Price is gone

 

[mgteich]

Let's see where we are in four weeks. Injuries happen. Players progress. Players regress. Players are even traded. We have six wide receivers competing for five positions. This is a good situation to be in.

I think that Tate has hhis kick returning to his credit. After all, he was our #2 KR in yards per return. It is not clear who would replace him. His 24 catches as the #5 receiver for 432 yards and 3 touchdowns is replaceable. As far as downfield threat, hernadez was our downfield threat in 2010,

it will come down to Tate v. Price he missed a year I like him and he seems like a better route wunner. Tate is our only Deep-Threat so I do think Price is gone

 

[mgteich]

Here's where I am at the moment.

JULY 30 ROSTER

OFFENSE – (24)
QB - 3 Brady, Hoyer, Mallett
RB - 4 Green-Ellis, Woodhead, Vareen, Ridley
C - 2 Koppen, Wendell/Ohrnberger
G - 3 Mankins, Cannon, Connolly
OT - 4 Solder, Vollmer, Light/fa, Levoir/Maneri
WR - 5 Welker, Johnson, Edelman/Tate, Price, Branch
TE – 3 Gronkowski, Hernandez, Smith/Crumpler
--------------------------------------------------------
DEFENSE (24)
DE – 3 Deaderick, Love/Pryor/fa, Brace
DT - 3 Wright, Wilfork, Haynsworth
ILB– 5 Mayo, Guyton, Spikes, Fletcher
OLB- 4 Ninkovich, Cunningham, Moore, fa TBD
CB - 5 Bodden, McCourty, Arrington, Dowling, Wilhite/Butler
S - 4 Meriweather, Sanders, Chung, McGowan/Barrett/Brown
----------------------------------------------------------------------
SPECIAL TEAMS – (5)
P - 1 Mesko
K - 1 Gostkowski
LS - 1 Katula
ST - 2 Slater/Morris/Faulk, White

 

[Ron Sellers]

It's way too early to say, but I'll play along. My only guarantee is that more than one of these names will be wrong.

QB – (3) - Tom Brady, Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett

RB – (4) - BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Danny Woodhead, Shane Vareen, Stevan Ridley

WR – (5) - Chad Ochocinco, Wes Welker, Taylor Price, Brandon Tate, and one of either Julian Edleman or Deion Branch (yes, I know they have different roles)

TE – (3) - Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Lee Smith

OT – (4) - Nate Solder, Sebastian Vollmer, Matt Light, Mark LeVoir, a FA T/G backup (or Steve Maneri)

G/C – (5) - Logan Mankins, Dan Connolly, Dan Koppen, Marcus Cannon
Ryan Wendell (or a FA, or Rich Ohrnberger)


DL - (7) - Vince Wilfork, Mike Wright, Ron Brace, Albert Haynesworth, Brandon Deaderick, Kyle Love, a yet unsigned FA DL

OLB - (4) - Jermaine Cunningham, Rob Ninkovich, Eric Moore, Markell Carter, (or Marques Murrell or a yet unsigned FA OLB)

ILB - (4) - Jerod Mayo, Brandon Spikes, Gary Guyton, Dane Fletcher

CB - (5) - Devin McCourty, Leigh Bodden, Ras-I Dowling, Kyle Arrington, Darius Butler

S - (4) - Patrick Chung, Brandon Meriweather, James Sanders, Sergio Brown


ST - (5)
K – Stephen Gostkowski
P – Zoltan Mesko
LS – Matt Katula
ST/offense - Matt Slater
ST/defense - Tracy White

* Note: another option is for the Pats to retain White and Brown as their ST specialists, cutting Slater - which would allow room for both Branch and Edelman.


Other distinct possibilities: RB Kevin Faulk, RB Sammy Morris, S Brandon McGowan, S Josh Barrett

 

[cambridgepatsfan4]

Re: Roster Forecasting as of 7/30

QB (3): Brady, Hoyer, Mallett
Can there be any question?

RB (6): Green-Ellis, Woodhead, Faulk, Morris, Vereen, Ridley
I don't know who gets cut out of this group. Maybe none of them. Morris is playing the Izzo role for us now. With that, maybe BB decides to keep more RBs and drop a S or LB. Of this group, strangely I think Faulk is the most vulnerable.

WR (5): Welker, Branch, Ochocinco, Edelman, Tate
Edelman and Tate, again, make the roster as elite KR, PR role players. I've cut Slater and Price to make roster room at the defensive backfield.

TE (3): Gronkowski, Hernandez, Smith
Could still be Crumpler at a lower salary, instead of Smith. But with Crumpler's release, my odds are on Smith.

OT (4): Light, Vollmer, Solder, LeVoir
I'm assuming and hoping Light re-signs. With Solder on the roster, the cup runneth over.

G/C (5): Mankins, Koppen, Connolly, Wendell, Ohnberger
Solid, veteran and deep

NT/DE (6): Wilfork, Haynesworth, GWarren, Wright, Brace, Deaderick
Deep but injured. I do think GWarren may return after his effective year, last year. Losing Ty Warren was a bit of a surprise to me, but helps untangle the story at DE. If Brace or Deaderick go to PUP, that would leave room for Love or Pryor.

OLB (4): Ninkovich, Cunningham, Moore, UFA
I have a hard time thinking BB will not try to find a FA to fill here. He has youth, but no depth or anyone who demands special attention from the OL. I was impressed with Moore late in the season last year, but this is clearly the weak spot on the roster.

ILB (4): Mayo, Spikes, Guyton, Fletcher
Fletcher is one of my favorite no name up and comers. I don't have a ST ace here, a la Tracey White. I think this is where keeping the extra RBs makes it's mark. Shifting Guyton to OLB is an interesting thought, and it looks like BB might play with the idea of adding some versatility. Perhaps if that happens, we can leave the roster with just 7 LBs overall and use the depth on offense (Ridley, Smith, Vereen) to fill the special teams.

CB (6): McCourty, Bodden, Dowling, Arrington, Butler, Wilhite
Barring injury, it's hard to think of this unit as a weak point on the roster. McCourty is an elite player and if Bodden can return to form, having Arrington and Butler for bench strength is a tremendous luxury. I'm keeping both Butler and Wilhite as gunners in place of Matthew Slater. They get the nod because they can also play on the regular D.

S (4): Meriweather, Chung, Sanders, Page
What seemed like a deep unit seems a bit iffy now. Meriweather may be in his last year, Chung is a missile, but Sanders is not 100%. There are many candidates for a #4 S, but my money is on Page. In a pinch, I would not be reluctant to play either Bodden or Dowling at S.

K (1): Gostkowski
P (1): Mesko
LS (1): Katula
I was interested to see Ninkovich doing long snapping. I assume that's in case we need a LS in emergency capacity. But I can't imaging BB not carrying a dedicated LS on the roster.

QB- Brady, Hoyer, Mallett-3

RB- Woody, Benny, Vereen, Ridley, Morris-5
Morris' value on ST and as an FB keep him on the roster. Woody makes Faulk redundant.

WR- Welker, Branch, Ochocinco, Edelman, Tate, Price-6
Price only in second year, so still has time to prove himself. Tate stays on for KR ability

TE- Gronk, Hernandez, Smith-3

OL-Light, Mankins, Koppen, Connolly, Vollmer, Solder, LeVoir, Wendell, Ohrnberger-9

DL- Wilfork, Haynesworth, Deadrick, Wright, Love, Brace -6
Love valuable for Short yardage, Pryor's sub rush ability negated by Haynesworth

LB- Mayo, Spikes, Fletcher, Ninkovich, Cunningham, Carter, Moore, White-8
Fletcher takes Guyton's spot, as he has more versality. White needed as ST specialist with Slater gone.

S- Chung, Meriweather, McGowan, Brown, Page-5
Sanders expendable due to 3.5 mil cap hit (according to Miguel), McGowan solid if healthy, Page played well hen healthy last year, would be cheap.

CB- McCourty, Bodden, Butler, Dowling, Arrington-5
Wilhite can only play slot, was hurt last year. Butler more versality+potential. Was reported as to be lining up in slot last few days.

Special- Katula, Gostkowski, Mesko--3

**Cannon on PUP

 

[Fencer]

As always, pretty plausible. But I have some thoughts.

Here's where I am at the moment.

JULY 30 ROSTER

OFFENSE – (24)
QB - 3 Brady, Hoyer, Mallett Little doubt
RB - 4 Green-Ellis, Woodhead, Vareen, Ridley Little doubt those four make it
C - 2 Koppen, Wendell/Ohrnberger Little doubt that there are 2, nor that there are at least 2 reserve interior OL
G - 3 Mankins, Cannon, Connolly Cannon is a great candidate to be red-shirted. A FA starter is still not impossible.
OT - 4 Solder, Vollmer, Light/fa, Levoir/Maneri Agreed that there four, especially since Solder is a raw rookie. IF Solder shines in TC and IF they go deep on interior OL, then they might stick with 3 on the theory that Mankins can slide over in a pinch. Lots of ifs, there, however; won't happen.
WR - 5 Welker, Johnson, Edelman/Tate, Price, Branch To have much doubt about Edelman sticking, you have to have a theory about who else could play in the slot. Chad? And what about punt returns?
TE – 3 Gronkowski, Hernandez, Smith/Crumpler Agreed
--------------------------------------------------------
DEFENSE (24)
DE – 3 Deaderick, Love/Pryor/fa, Brace
DT - 3 Wright, Wilfork, Haynesworth Sloppy to say Love is a DE and to say that Haynesworth and Wright are DTs. Anyhow, I think 6 total is light with almost everybody after Wilfork being a big question.
ILB– 5 Mayo, Guyton, Spikes, Fletcher That's only 4. So we can add a DL and still be at 24.
OLB- 4 Ninkovich, Cunningham, Moore, fa TBD Not obvious there's a FA, since Fletcher can play outside.
CB - 5 Bodden, McCourty, Arrington, Dowling, Wilhite/Butler Agreed that's the base case.
S - 4 Meriweather, Sanders, Chung, McGowan/Barrett/Brown Could go up to 5 if one is mainly a sub package LB, especially given how much safeties contribute on STs.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
SPECIAL TEAMS – (5)
P - 1 Mesko
K - 1 Gostkowski
LS - 1 Katula
ST - 2 Slater/Morris/Faulk, White I think Faulk makes the team somehow. It will be interesting to see how many kick or punt return reps he gets.

 

[Wretch]

Current Patriots Roster and Projections

# NAME POS. AGE EXP.
67 Koppen, Dan C 31 9
62 Wendell, Ryan C 25 3
27 Arrington, Kyle CB 24 3
23 Bodden, Leigh CB 29 9
28 Butler, Darius CB 25 3
32 McCourty, Devin CB 23 2
24 Wilhite, Jonathan CB 27 4
Barrett, Josh DB 26 3
21 Dowling, Ras-I DB 23 R
26 Lockett, Bret DB 24 3
43 Turner, Thad DB 24 1
35 Ventrone, Ross DB 24 1
41 Williams, Malcolm DB R
97 Brace, Ron DE 24 3
71 Deaderick, B DE 23 2
98 Moore, Eric DE 30 6
53 Murrell, Marques DE 26 4
61b Nurse, Clay DE 22 R
69b Silvestro, Ale1 DE 22 R
99 Wright, Mike DE 29 7
60b Lavarias, Aaron DL 23 R
Willams, Steve DL
68b Favorite, Marlon DT 25 1
Haynesworth, A DT 30 10
74 Love, Kyle DT 24 2
91 Pryor, Myron DT 25 3
90 Richard, Darryl DT 25 2
66 Weston, Kade DT 24 2
25 Chung, Patrick FS 23 3
30 McGowan, B FS 27 7
68 Austin, Thomas G 24 1
63 Connolly, Dan G 28 6
70 Mankins, Logan G 29 7
60 Ohrnberger, Rich G 25 3
59 Guyton, Gary ILB 25 4
51 Mayo, Jerod ILB 25 4
55 Spikes, Brandon ILB 23 2
3 Gostkowski, S K 27 6
2 Koepplin, Chris K 25 R
49 Carter, Markell LB R
52 Fletcher, Dane LB 24 2
48b Tarpinian, Jeff LB 23 R
58 White, Tracy LB 30 9
48 Katula, Matt LS 28 7
66 Cohen, Landon NT 24 4
75 Wilfork, Vince NT 29 8
66w Berry, Mike OL 22 R
71w Hix, Kyle OL 22 R
69w Woods, Corey OL 23 R
96 Cunningham, J OLB 23 2
50 Ninkovich, Rob OLB 27 6
14 Mesko, Zoltan P 25 2
12 Brady, Tom QB 33 12
7 Crompton, J QB 24 1
8 Hoyer, Brian QB 25 3
15 Mallett, Ryan QB 23 R
22 Clayton, Thomas RB 27 3
33 Faulk, Kevin RB 35 13
42 Green-Ellis, B RB 26 4
44 Kettani, Eric RB 24 1
34 Morris, Sammy RB 34 12
37 Ridley, Stevan RB 22 R
29 Vereen, Shane RB 22 R
39 Woodhead, D RB 27 4
38 Brown, Sergio SAF 23 2
31 Meriweather, B SS 27 5
36 Sanders, James SS 27 7
61w Cannon, Marcus T 23 R
64 LeVoir, Mark T 29 5
72 Light, Matt T 33 11
65 Maneri, Steve T 23 1
74w Solder, Nate T 23 R
76 Vollmer, S T 27 3
86 Butler, Carson TE 23 1
87 Gronkowski, Rob TE 22 2
85 Hernandez, Aaron TE 21 2
80 Smith, Lee TE 23 R
88 Yeatman, Will TE 23 R
16 Barnes, Tyree WR 25 1
84 Branch, Deion WR 32 10
11 Edelman, Julian WR 25 3
13 Farnham, Buddy WR 24 1
10 Jenkins, Darnell WR 28 1
85 Ochocinco, Chad WR 33 11
17 Price, Taylor WR 23 2
81 Ross, Jeremy WR 23 R
18 Slater, Matt WR 25 4
19 Tate, Brandon WR 23 3
83 Welker, Wes WR 30 8

This is the current roster per the NFL/Pats site. I think the players that are bold are likely to make the team, assuming no injuries, trades, or FA signings. If I counted right there are 47 players locked.

I assumed Light will resign.

Who else makes the team?

 

[Haley]

Re: Current Patriots Roster and Projections

I would think we might need:
97 Brace, Ron DE 24 3
71 Deaderick, B DE 23 2

unless we find an upgrade in FA.

Also wasn't there some talk that Faulk would make the team?

I'd also like to predict we complete our Dline with this acquisition:

 

[farn]

Re: Current Patriots Roster and Projections

I think Maneri makes the team. Probably one or two of the following three players makes the team : Butler, Wilhite, Lockett.

Moore is in. He was quite good in 2010. Cannon has a place also, but IT could be on PUP or IR... Though not sure what the rules are from how he is currently designated...

 

[PatsCanDoIt]

Re: Current Patriots Roster and Projections

With everyone healthy I'd drop Ohrnburger and add Cannon and Maneri to OL. I'd inlude Deaderick, Brace, Moore, Price and a DB to the 53 as well. I'm rooting for Markell Carter or one of the UDFA OLBs to show something but for now I think they're on the outside looking in.

 

[Mainefan]

Re: Current Patriots Roster and Projections

The others are:

Butler
Brace
Deaderick
Moore
Cannon
Price

But if Haynesworth works out, Brace might be gone. Big IF. More likely, Haynesworth goes and one of these stays: Faulk, Morris, Price.

 

[Metaphors]

Re: Current Patriots Roster and Projections

2 QB Brady, Hoyer
4 RB BJGE, Woodhead, Vereen, Morris
5 WR Welker, Ocho, Tate, Edelperson, Price
3 TE Gronk, Hernandez, Smith
3 OT Vollmer, Solder, LeVoir
4 GC Koppen, Mankins, Connolly, Wendell
6 DL Wilfork, Haynesworth, Wright, Pryor, Brace, Deaderick
6 LB Mayo, Cunningham, Spikes, Guyton, Ninkovich, Fletcher
3 CB McCourty, Bodden, Butler
3 S Chung, Meriweather, Sanders
1 DB Dowling
2 K Gostkowski, Mesko
4 ST Arrington(CB), Barrett(S), Carter(LB), Katula(LS)
46 Active

QB Mallett
RB Ridley
GC Ohrnberger
OT Maneri
DL Love
LB Moore
6 Inactive

OL Cannon
1 PUP

Injury Insurance
RB Faulk
WR Branch
CB Wilhite
S Brown
S McGowan
ST Slater, White

Comments
- Morris is a key ST guy and gets the nod unless/until Ridley can do the same
- Branch and Ocho have duplicate skill sets/roles
- Light would displace LeVoir on the roster
- Only one of Ohrnberger/Wendell stays (whichever plays OC best) when Cannon is ready
- Moore and Fletcher share 1 active spot based on matchups/gameplans
- Same with Price and Ridley
- Would love to see Katula off the roster if another player (Ninkovich?) can be the LS. One more ST ace (one of the UDFA LBs?) and that unit would have the potential to dominate
- Plenty of solid vets in camp if the injury bug strikes. Pretty smart considering the unknowns introduced by the "offseason"
- Off-the-radar players to watch...Barrett displacing Sanders, Austin flying up the depth chart ahead of Wendell/Ohrnberger, Yeatman overtaking Maneri for OL project, Weston/Richard sending Deaderick packing

 

[SirApropos]

Re: Current Patriots Roster and Projections

The extra 46th active spot was specifically for the 3rd QB so Mallett would take that spot.

I've seen way to many OL on these 53. Because of the need for a 3rd QB this year there will be 8 kept at most with 7 active and 1 inactive. We had the luxury with only 2 QB's in the past and needed them because of the Mankins holdout last year but neither are the case this year. Even once Mankin's came back they had to deal with Stephen Neal going to the IR so still needed the extra OL toward the end of the season.

In 2010 the Pats started the year with 9 OL but two of those players were Steve Maneri who had been claimed off of waivers and had to be on the roster for a few weeks and Nick Kazcur who they were hoping would come back from his injury but never did. So they really only had 7 OL to start the season.

In 2011 two of the 8 OL will be draft picks Solder and Cannon who will be primarily backups barring injury. Both of them can play OT and Cannon projects to Guard but has played both RT and LT so he is our G/T candidate probably displacing Mark LeVoir who was only even active for 6 games last year and was eventually replaced by Quinn Ojinnaka who also was only active for 8 games.

The remaining 6 OL would be the 5 starters Matt Light (if he resigns), Logan Mankins, Dan Koppen, Dan Connolly, and Sebastian Vollmer. The last spot would go to the most experienced guy without any PS eligbility and that would be Ryan Wendell. Orhnberger can still be put on the PS and that's where he will end up. Maneri will also get one more year on the PS to buff up and learn the system since he didn't have an offseason this year.

So our OL should look like this.

LT - Matt Light, Nate Solder
LG - Logan Mankins
C - Dan Koppen, Ryan Wendell
RG - Dan Connolly, Marcus Cannon
RT - Sebastian Vollmer

 

[Metaphors]

Re: Current Patriots Roster and Projections

The extra 46th active spot was specifically for the 3rd QB so Mallett would take that spot.

There are no rules on the 46th spot. Some teams don't even carry a 3rd QB.

 

[Calciumee]

Re: Current Patriots Roster and Projections

The extra 46th active spot was specifically for the 3rd QB so Mallett would take that spot.

I think it is actually that the 46th can be anything, but the 3rd QB being counting as an inactive isn't anymore!

If a team wants to carry the 3rd QB, he has to be active and not inactive (3rd QB)

 

[rookBoston]

Couple of things, after reading how the thread has progressed:

1) wtf with people cutting Branch or listing him inactive? Just because Branch and Ocho are similar players, doesn't mean you can only have one. Both are playmakers. Put them on the field with Welker and try to find a team that has the DBs to cover all of them. All three of them are like trying to catch greased pigs. Max protect, and just let the three of them run around for a bit and watch the O march down the field 6 yards at a time.

2) I've changed my mind about cutting Faulk. Even tho I don't see how it helps the team, I'm pretty convinced BB intends to have him in the locker room this year, in a Crumpler kind of a way. So, even if he never sees the field, he'll make the 53-man. That's bad news for some talented kid who gets bumped off the bottom of the roster. And it might cost Woodhead some touches.

 

[Metaphors]

wtf with people cutting Branch or listing him inactive?

Listing him inactive is kind of silly. I just have a hard time seeing them keep 6 WRs. Consider:

1) Welker...Brady's top target. Barring a trade, he keeps his role.
2) Ocho...Hard to see him not starting.
3) Tate...Speed to attack deep zones and a top 5 returner.
4) Edelperson...2011 and especially 2012 Welker insurance and a top 5 returner.
5) Price...Really going to cut him after just one game?

Branch has one year left on his contract, is 32 yo and has had injury concerns for the last 5 years. Contract is favorable but would save over $1M on the cap if he is cut.

I think your point is valid though. I don't believe Belichick or Brady wants to see Branch go. They have 6 legit candidates for 5 spots at a position they have had trouble keeping healthy. If everyone stays healthy, someone will likely have to go.

I've changed my mind about cutting Faulk.

Similar numbers game...

1) Vereen...Not cutting a top 100 pick before his first game.
2) Ridley...Ditto.
3) Woodhead...Was great being thrown into the fire. Should be better with a full preseason.
4) BJGE...Definition of dependable, but may not be around next year.
5) Morris...Key blocks on just about every big return. Lost multiple steps but fills multiple roles.

At most 5 backs will make the team. Seems like Faulk is #6 unless Vereen can displace BJGE. More likely Faulk and Morris are in camp to train their replacements and serve as injury insurance policies.

 

[supafly]

Glad to see that I haven't lost my mind by being the only one who would see Branch as a possible cut, there are many almost as crazy as me.

 

[ay-yo]

I hope we don't waste a roster spot on Morris. At this point his biggest contributions will be on ST. I'd rather keep a ST only player who won't be on IR by week 3.

WR is an interesting debate. I can understand the thought process for getting rid of Branch but unless Tate or Price shows serious development I'd keep him. As of now Branch represents a serious upgrade in the 3 wr / 1te / 1rb set which will probably be the 2nd most common offense set behind 2 wr / 2 te / 1 rb. The contributions of Tate and Edelman on ST plus the upcoming FA of Welker and Branch makes it a bit easier to keep 6 wr.

 

[Fencer]

I think it's nuts to have only 2 OTs who, through today, have ever been in an NFL practice.

3 OT counting Solder makes no sense, even on the theory that Mankins could slide over in an emergency, unless the rookie gets off to a STUNNINGLY fast start.