I agree with your analysis. However, I might move Boling to the first group (I don't think that he will be there at 60) and add Carpenter, Fusco and Kirkpatrick to the second list.
CASE ONE - NO GUARD DRAFTED BY US THROUGH PICK 33
Now, I definitely want to choose between Watkins and Wisnewski.
CASE TWO - A GUARD HAS ALREADY BEEN PICKED, BUT ONLY ONE FRONT 7 PLAYER
Now I want to move up for a linebacker.
CASE THREE - A GUARD AND TWO FRONT SEVEN PLAYERS HAVE BEEN PICKED BT 33
I still might want Watkins or Wisnewski, but the need is less.
BOTTOM LINE
IMHO, I would like four of the five needs filled early: 2 front seven defensive players, 2 interior linemen, and an OT. I could see passing on the OT, especailly if Light is extended. After all, Dante could be fine with Kaczur or LeVoir starting or t least competing for a starting spot with a mid-level veteran free agent.
I suppose that if safety is now viewed as a critical need, we would be less likey to trade up.
Well, the big question is what kind of "stud" is likely to be available at #38. Let's make it concrete (albeit hypothetical). The choice is likely to be something like...
ONE of:
Danny Watkins
Justin Houston
Stefen Wisniewski
Allen Bailey
Aaron Williams
Ryan Williams
Sam Acho
Leonard Hankerson
vs.
TWO of:
Ben Ijalana
Ras-I Dowling
Jabaal Sheard
Randall Cobb
Clint Boling
Quinton Carter
Edmund Gates
Kenrick Ellis
Shane Vereen
Edmond Gates
John Moffitt