Why can't this offense be as explosive as 2007?

[dhamz]

A repeat of 2007 isn't going to happen.

Healthy Welker and 30 year old Moss > rehabbing Welker and 33 year old Moss.
Light, Koppen, and Neal of 2007 > Light, Koppen, Neal of 2010.
McDaniels > O'Brien.
Fresh offensive scheme league had never seen > scheme league has 3 years of tape on.

The offense has the potential to be better than last year. That would be good enough if the defense improves.

 

[ALP]

Three things stopped the 2009 offense from being as consistently explosive as it was 2 years prior: an inexperienced offensive coordinator, health of its big 3 (Brady, Moss, Welker) and a lack of weapons.

The OC now has a year and the upcoming offseason under his belt. We added Holt, Price, Tate, Hernandez, Gronk and Crumpler. Welker will hopefully be back to 100% sometime during the season.

If Brady and Moss stay healthy, then what's stopping this team from putting up 35 points a game again? Nothing.

1. not having welker from the beginning
2. an older brady and older moss
3. a 2nd year OC compared to an experienced mcdaniels
4. an older RB comittee
5. older O-line
6. unproven 3rd/4th WR until welker comes back

i think ill stop there

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

A repeat of 2007 isn't going to happen.

Healthy Welker and 30 year old Moss > rehabbing Welker and 33 year old Moss.
Light, Koppen, and Neal of 2007 > Light, Koppen, Neal of 2010.
McDaniels > O'Brien.
Fresh offensive scheme league had never seen > scheme league has 3 years of tape on.

The offense has the potential to be better than last year. That would be good enough if the defense improves.

About as good as you can sum it up, though I hope at some point in this season Welker will be his old self.

When you consider the schedule we had to face in 2007, that just gives you a whole new appreciation for that offense. That plus the fact that we are not a dome team, puts it on a whole new level from the 2004 Colts/1999 Rams. Highly doubt you will see another offense quite like that in your lifetime unless the game changes considerably or the cap is gone for good.

 

[BradyManny]

Stop being such a homeristic optimist.. I mean.. really


*LOL*

J/K....I think it will be explosive..

I see a couple things that could stand in the way...
1) Health of Neal/ lack of competent back-ups.
2) Mankins Contract status.


If those two come in and play well, then things should be good.. Otherwise, the Pats are going to have a hard time.

Valid points - the interior of the O-line is still an iffy spot - long term. Short term, as long as Neal stays healthy, it looks good. But that is certainly something we need to address - hopefully some of the OL we've picked up in the last two drafts pan out.

 

[BradyManny]

While Bill O'Brien was a problem, a bigger problem last year was Brady's propensity to audible. And it cost them on numerous occasions.. One of the biggest was when LeVoir was sent on as a eligible receiver to block in a running formation, Brady audibled out of it, LeVoir didn't hear it and LeVoir got called on a penalty..

On the flip side - twice last season Brady called off a pass play and switched to a run [to Sammy both times] and it led to huge gains. One was the Atlanta game, and I'm forgetting the other.

 

[BradyManny]

To me when you do all the math you are left with potentially a similar skill level but can they put up the same numbers. And I say even if/when they don't they likely will be close to as tough to defend.

Yeah, I guess I'm not as concerned about numbers - but consistency & level of execution. No matter how many points a game they put up, if they can move the ball at a level similar to 2007 - it doesn't have to be as fast or as furious - then they'll likely be in the final 4 teams come January. I don't see why they can't get back to a comparable level of execution.

 

[BradyManny]

Like Brady said in an interview, 2007 was special for more than a few reasons, and it is ridiculous for fans to expect the team to 'return' to that style of play in the future. The rest of the league knows how to defend it better. The players are older. The coach who essentially created it and understood how to keep changing it is now with a different team.

But the two teams in the Super Bowl last season were of very comparable style and efficiency in their offenses to what the Patriots did in 2007. The Saints threatened our records for portions of the season, and the Colts - while not as impressive historically - were in the SB for their explosive offense. So for Brady to say that things like 2007 can never happen again - it's really a matter of semantics: Will the team go 19-0? Put up 40 points a game for half the season? No - they won't, and I agree with you there. But can they dominate and average over 30 points a game? I think that's a fair expectation given the level of talent on the offensive side of the ball on this squad.

There's no reason that N.O. or Indy should have better offenses now that the Patriots have addressed their deficiency in terms of offensive skill players by adding the guys I've mentioned.

 

[Leave No Doubt]

I'm not really concerned with the offense being explosive. I want the offense to be EFFICIENT. I want to see us avoiding 3rd downs, unless they are 3rd and short. I want to see drives that wear down the defense, rather than striking quickly. Ball control (which does not necessarily mean running the ball, just controlling the tempo), low turnovers, and field position.

:yeahthat:
10ch

 

[BradyManny]

It's funny, just yesterday I was watching an NFL network replay of our home game last year against the Dolphins. Not a great game, but we were driving down the field the whole game almost without effort. Playcalling-wise it was basically spread offense/shotgun the whole way and no apologies about it, and it was working pretty easily.

The problems; they kept getting bogged down in the red zone, and Sam Aiken was usually the uncovered guy. I was thinking to myself, "If Brady wasn't throwing to special-teamers, and was just a little sharper, this would be the same offense as 2007."

I agree completely - lack of a 3rd wideout killed our season. Between Price, Tate, Holt, Gonzalez, Gronk, Crump - it's a safe bet somebody steps up.

 

[BradyManny]

1. not having welker from the beginning
2. an older brady and older moss
3. a 2nd year OC compared to an experienced mcdaniels
4. an older RB comittee
5. older O-line
6. unproven 3rd/4th WR until welker comes back

i think ill stop there

An older Brady really can't or shouldn't matter. Taking a huge step back and looking at the team in general and very long term - if Brady doesn't have another 5-8 years left in him, then a lot of the rebuilding we're doing right now is - at the moment - looks hopeless. Teams with the best QBs compete, and its that simple. Hoyer looks like a good backup, but we can't expect another Matt Cassel to happen.

Now, if Brady is playing at a high level until he's 40 like Warner and Favre, then this team is setup as well as its ever looked. They have a huge influx of young talent, and are stacked in the 2011 draft as well. If Brady plays well for another 5-8 years, then I see the Patriots being the Team of the Decade once again.

 

[JR4]

Not sure but this years schedule looks real tough.
PATs will face several very good Ds this year.
Jets x 2, Ravens, Bengals, GB, Steelers, Vikes
maybe some of these Ds take a step back but don't count on it.

 

[Rob0729]

The only way I see it is remotely possible for this team to be as explosive as 2007 is if Welker makes a miraculous recovery and is at near 100% at the start of the season (not impossible, but not great odds either), Edelman makes the same types of strides he had in his first year as a WR into his second and also becomes more versatile (also not impossible), and Brandon Tate emerges as a solid #3 WR on the outside (again, not impossible). The odds of all of those things happening is pretty tough though.

I think it is possible this team could be as explosive as 2007, but I would give it a less than 10 or 15% chance. I also think people discount what McDaniels meant to that offense a lot too.

 

[Deus Irae]

Anything's possible, but a reasonable breakdown, IMO, gives:

Moss 2007 > Moss 2010
Welker 2007 > Edelman/Welker 2010
Gaffney/Stallworth 2007 > Holt/Tate/etc. 2010
Morris 2007 > Morris 2010
Light 2007 > Light 2010
Koppen 2007 > Koppen 2010
Neal 2007 > Neal 2010
Faulk 2007 > Faulk 2010

I think it's best to put the TE spots into the "who knows?" category, along with Brady, Maroney/Taylor (mostly because of the postseason), Mankins and Vollmer/Kaczur.

I can't think of a single position where there's a definite likelihood of improvement over the 2007 team. Toss in McDaniels v. O'Brien, and teams having more tape of this offense, and I find it very unlikely that this offense will be as explosive as the greatest NFL offense of all time (2007 Patriots).

 

[Sicilian]

Anything's possible, but a reasonable breakdown, IMO, gives:

Moss 2007 > Moss 2010
Welker 2007 > Edelman/Welker 2010
Gaffney/Stallworth 2007 > Holt/Tate/etc. 2010
Morris 2007 > Morris 2010
Light 2007 > Light 2010
Koppen 2007 > Koppen 2010
Neal 2007 > Neal 2010
Faulk 2007 > Faulk 2010

I think it's best to put the TE spots into the "who knows?" category, along with Brady, Maroney/Taylor (mostly because of the postseason), Mankins and Vollmer/Kaczur.

I can't think of a single position where there's a definite likelihood of improvement over the 2007 team. Toss in McDaniels v. O'Brien, and teams having more tape of this offense, and I find it very unlikely that this offense will be as explosive as the greatest NFL offense of all time (2007 Patriots).

I would agree with everything, except for Gaffney/Stallworth > Holt/Tate/etc. I think there's good potential that Holt could be better than either of those two, and thus if we get a decent contribution from Tate or Price, then that area will be a wash.

Everything else is hard to argue.

 

[Ring 6]

This isnt the 60s any more either and you dont set records by everyone knowing what you are going to do and not being able to stop you anyway.
Part of the success of 2007 was we had gameplans that were not expected, we became one of the most aggressive offenses in the league after a pattern of being very conservative.
If we replayed the 2007 season starting in March 2008, we wouldn't have been as explosive as 2007.
Tha said, the offense needs to evolve to be as productive as that one (or anywhere in the vicinity is fine) not just try to duplicate what worked then.
There are many ways it can evolve.
-The potential improvement of the TEs can create new weapons that werent as troublesome to defenses in the past against us.
-A healthy Welker plus his mini-Me playing together on 3rd down makes the defense stop what has been so successful on BOTH sides of the field.
-If the running game comes together (its been fine but underachieving) and we can actually become a more run oriented team, we can use all those weapons against base Ds in run/pass down and distances and actually throw against defenses that arent selling out to stop the pass. (e.g. if you have the worst corner in the world, I'll never have him one on one if I throw every down, so now I make him average by guaranteeing him help, but if I limit the times I pick on him, the help goes elsewhere and I torch him when I get the matchup_
-Our offensive playbook evolves every year anyway, and if our attmepts to stay ahead of how teams defend us, we become more successful.

Talent-wise we are still in the same stratosphere, results will depend on more than just that.

 

[patsfan-1982]

who cares haveing the top fantasy team in the NFL dose not win SB's just ask the colts and texans who had the top 2 passing offenses in the NFL last year.



it takes a defense that can get to the QB and create turnovers if the pats don't have that they won't win anything

 

[emoney_33]

This isnt the 60s any more either and you dont set records by everyone knowing what you are going to do and not being able to stop you anyway.
Part of the success of 2007 was we had gameplans that were not expected, we became one of the most aggressive offenses in the league after a pattern of being very conservative.
If we replayed the 2007 season starting in March 2008, we wouldn't have been as explosive as 2007.

I'm not sure I agree with this. The 2008 offense produced a whopping 640 fewer yards than the 2007 offense, and that is while getting a HUGE dropoff from Brady to Cassel.

 

[emoney_33]

who cares haveing the top fantasy team in the NFL dose not win SB's just ask the colts and texans who had the top 2 passing offenses in the NFL last year.



it takes a defense that can get to the QB and create turnovers if the pats don't have that they won't win anything

The Saints had the #1 offense in the NFL

 

[patsfan-1982]

The Saints had the #1 offense in the NFL

yes but they also had a defense that can get to the QB and it was ther defense that shut the door on payton manning,

 

[dhamz]

I'm not sure I agree with this. The 2008 offense produced a whopping 640 fewer yards than the 2007 offense, and that is while getting a HUGE dropoff from Brady to Cassel.

The 2008 Pats produced a whopping 179 points less than 2007 Pats.