Are you confident in this defense?

[patsox23]

My expectation is that the D in the first 6 or so games will struggle but that, come playoff time, they will likely have improved. There's a lot more talent, particularly in the secondary, but the youth there - or, in terms of Springs and, to a lesser degree (since he's played this system before), Bodden, not as much experience - will make the transition take some time. The idea that anyone as knowledgeable as Deus would think the secondary this year will be worse than the total crapfest it was in 2008 is stunning to me.

 

[Ring 6]

I'm sorry, but this makes no sense. The question wasn't "which team will weather injuries better?.

No, the question is how will the PLAY of 09 compare to the PLAY of 08.

To compare this years players to a healthy Vrabel is to ignore that his play was denegrated by his injury.
Its a similar situation with Bruschi. Whether or not we are better at his position this year or last year does not depend on whether the player in his spot is better than Bruschi in his prime, but better than the player Bruschi was LAST year, at his age, with that wear and tear.

 

[HEY BRO! WHAT UP?]

Actually, it makes all the sense in the world. Bruschi and Vrabel played rather poorly last year. We're comparing, in this instance, how THEY played last year vs. how others this year may play. Exactly which editions of Bruschi and Vrabel would YOU like to use?

Yeah, it was time for Bruschi and Vrabel to go. In fact, it was their worst years as pros. It was sad to see Vrabel desperately trying to get after the QB but could barely get off the line. On the other hand, Bruschi couldn't cover anybody in '08 and the nail was in the coffin this preseason when he lost Cooley in coverage for that 70 yard pickup.

 

[Ring 6]

Seymour and Warren are the DE's on running downs. Burgess, Green or Banta-Cain are the DE's on passing downs.

OK, pssing downs are irrelevant because we dont play 34 or 43, we play nickel or dime.
Seymour and Warren, especially Warren are DTs in a 43.
If we played a 43 with Seymour and Warren at DE and Wilfork and I assume Wright(?) at DE, we would absolutely get destroyed by the play action pass.
How does putting Mike Wright on the field and removing Pierre
Woods (a good run defender) then putting our other 3 DL oout of position, make us better?

 

[Ring 6]

We know little about this year's defense except that many players have changed and the team was 32nd in defensive stats in the preseason.

The defensive line should be even better than last year. Brace will be a solid addition in goal line situations. Pryor will be at least as good as Smith.

Losing Vrabel and Bruschi will make the linebacking corps. At least that's our story and we're sticking to it. At ILB, Guyton is back, and maybe there will be a player to replace Bruschi, perhaps there will be no 4th ILB. At OLB, Vrabel's reps will be taken by Woods and Banta-Cain. Burgess might also take some OLB reps. Is it really clear that the linebacking corp is better.

The defensive backfield is a question mark. Springs has been injured. Bodden has played OK, and perhaps will be better this year than Hobbs was last year. Bodden certainly is more talented. The rest of defense are all kids with question marks. The defensive backfiled SHOULD be better than last year.

BOTTOM LINE
The defense will better than in this preseason. Will it be better than last year's #10 defense? Perhaps and perhaps not. The key factor will likely be the preformance of the offense. If, as expected, the offense is much better this year, then the defense will be playing from ahead more and should do better, much as in 2007. In the end, that won't
really mean that the defense is better than 2008, only that they have better situations to develop better stats.

Great. Now we are using preseason statistic to rip the team?
How much of those stats were attributable to players who will be on the team?
How much was done against the starting unit we will employ? 5%?
The starters played less than a total of 1 full game, and I dont know if all 11 were ever on the field together, and we are going to use preseason stats to judge our defense? Oh, brother.

 

[Deus Irae]

Well, yeah, but if we're comparing how this year's D may compare to last year's, aren't we comparing how last year's - Vrabel and Bruschi - actually PLAYED, no matter what the reasons why?

How they actually played at what part of last season?

This is why this is a waste of time. A healthy defense last year was better in the front 7 than a healthy defense this year is likely to be at the start of the year, because of the 2 lesser players that will be on this year's team.

Seymour
Wilfork
Warren
Vrabel
Bruschi
Mayo
Thomas

is going to be better at the start of the season than

Seymour
Wilfork
Warren
Mayo
Thomas
and the other 2 players, whether you are using a d-lineman and a linebacker or you are using 2 linebackers.

However, schemes will be different, health will be different, opponents will be different, etc... Additionally, Mayo will likely keep improving, and Woods/Burgess/Guyton/Brace etc... should get familiar with their roles and improve over time. I just can't credit that at the start of the year, which is why I noted:

Whether it will stay that way over the course of the season is something that only time can tell us.

in reference to the linebackers and

could improve dramatically if Springs gets out there or if one of the puppies grows up over the course of the season.

in reference to the secondary.

This is my take on the defense. If you, and Andy, disagree, so be it. Nobody is going to be 'right' or 'wrong' on this, because it's really not an answerable question.

 

[Kontradiction]

Hmm, not sure why you guys are making calls on the defense at this point. The preseason gameplan has been extremely vanilla and I'm pretty sure BB doesn't want to give opponents good looks at what his generic defense during the regular season is going to look like.

As far as leadership goes, I think Mayo, Meriweather, and A.D. are ready to step into that role for the defense not to mention Seymour and Wilfork on the DL. All in all, as long as A.D. stays healthy and they can generate the pass rush we saw at the beginning of last season and the rebuilt secondary comes together at some point in the season, we should be fine defensively.

 

[HEY BRO! WHAT UP?]

OK, pssing downs are irrelevant because we dont play 34 or 43, we play nickel or dime.
Seymour and Warren, especially Warren are DTs in a 43.
If we played a 43 with Seymour and Warren at DE and Wilfork and I assume Wright(?) at DE, we would absolutely get destroyed by the play action pass.
How does putting Mike Wright on the field and removing Pierre
Woods (a good run defender) then putting our other 3 DL out of position, make us better?

I know it's preseason, but when the Pats had their starting lineup in a 4-3, Portis couldn't do squat. Also, after the Redskins first drive, Campbell couldn't do squat until the Pats rotated in some backups like Bruschi that allowed Cooley to catch a 70 yard pass.

Believe it or not, but the Pats are better off as a 4-3 team.

This is how I see it their front seven on early downs:
DE: Seymour
DT: Wilfork
DT: Wright
DE: Warren
OLB: Thomas
MLB: Mayo
OLB: Guyton

Passing downs:
DE: Banta-Cain or Green
DT: Warren
DT: Seymour
DE: Burgess
OLB: Thomas
MLB: Mayo
extra defense back

While Warren and Seymour are not the ideal DE's in a 4-3, you saw how BB got creative blitzing Merriweather and Guyton against the Redskins to get some pressure. Lastly, it's not like the Pats are facing juggernaut passing offenses every week. In fact, the only team that can go off on the Pats defense is the Saints.

 

[Deus Irae]

What?
I said we are a 34 team, so its odd to compare 4 LBs to 3.

I said that Vrabels job is being split by 2 players. Woods in the base and Burgess in the sub. How can you compare Vrabel last year to his 'replacement' if you only look at the guy doing half of the job he did.

Thomas=Thomas
Mayo=Mayo
Bruschi=Guyton
Vrabel=Woods+Burgess (base/sub)

That is the only rational way to compare.

No, it's not. Furthermore, your claim that this is a 3-4 team does not make it so, as Pats1 would be happy to tell you.

Also, if you were going to try breaking it down the way you are, which I don't accept, you'd be using Bruschi/Guyton in last year's group rather than just Bruschi, because Guyton was in for passing downs.

 

[Ring 6]

My expectation is that the D in the first 6 or so games will struggle but that, come playoff time, they will likely have improved. There's a lot more talent, particularly in the secondary, but the youth there - or, in terms of Springs and, to a lesser degree (since he's played this system before), Bodden, not as much experience - will make the transition take some time. The idea that anyone as knowledgeable as Deus would think the secondary this year will be worse than the total crapfest it was in 2008 is stunning to me.

Have you looked at the schedule. Up to the bye, who would we struggle on D against?
Bills....not likely
Jets....maybe the worst offense we face
Falcons.....average offense
Ravens.....average at best
Broncos.....weak offense
Titans......weak offense
Bucs.,....very weak offense

If we are not top 3 in points allowed when we go to our buy, I would be shocked.

 

[patsox23]

Deus, god bless you, but Vrabel and Bruschi didn't stink last year JUST BECAUSE THEY WERE HURT. They also weren't all that good prior to being hurt, especially Bruschi. I can't think of anyone who likes Bruschi more than I do, but the guy's been poor-ish for a few years now. Sometimes effective, not a total piece of junk or anything, but not the Bruschi of even 2006. Let's get real here.

 

[bbell31]

we are fine, lotta versatility...on paper best defense we have had in the past five years

 

[Deus Irae]

Hmm, not sure why you guys are making calls on the defense at this point. The preseason gameplan has been extremely vanilla and I'm pretty sure BB doesn't want to give opponents good looks at what his generic defense during the regular season is going to look like.

As far as leadership goes, I think Mayo, Meriweather, and A.D. are ready to step into that role for the defense not to mention Seymour and Wilfork on the DL. All in all, as long as A.D. stays healthy and they can generate the pass rush we saw at the beginning of last season and the rebuilt secondary comes together at some point in the season, we should be fine defensively.

Which is why I'm amused by Patsox and Andy debating this stuff with me when I noted

I'm confident that the offense will give the defense the opportunity to go through the needed growing pains, and that the defense will gel in time to help when it's needed at the end of the season and in the playoffs.

in my first post.

 

[patsox23]

Have you looked at the schedule. Up to the bye, who would we struggle on D against?
Bills....not likely
Jets....maybe the worst offense we face
Falcons.....average offense
Ravens.....average at best
Broncos.....weak offense
Titans......weak offense
Bucs.,....very weak offense

If we are not top 3 in points allowed when we go to our buy, I would be shocked.

Hey, great point, AJ. I should be more careful with my words. I just mean that the Patriots D is, at several spots, less experienced either in the system or in the NFL in general, and will take some time for this system - and the complexity and speed of the game at this level - to get "in their bones." I expect the team to improve quite a lot as some of the younger players in the secondary, especially, get acclimated. Your point is well taken, and happily so.

 

[Deus Irae]

Deus, god bless you, but Vrabel and Bruschi didn't stink last year JUST BECAUSE THEY WERE HURT. They also weren't all that good prior to being hurt, especially Bruschi. I can't think of anyone who likes Bruschi more than I do, but the guy's been poor-ish for a few years now. Sometimes effective, not a total piece of junk or anything, but not the Bruschi of even 2006. Let's get real here.

You are entitled to your opinion.

 

[Ring 6]

How they actually played at what part of last season?

This is why this is a waste of time. A healthy defense last year was better in the front 7 than a healthy defense this year is likely to be at the start of the year, because of the 2 lesser players that will be on this year's team.

Seymour
Wilfork
Warren
Vrabel
Bruschi
Mayo
Thomas

is going to be better at the start of the season than

Seymour
Wilfork
Warren
Mayo
Thomas
and the other 2 players, whether you are using a d-lineman and a linebacker or you are using 2 linebackers.

However, schemes will be different, health will be different, opponents will be different, etc... Additionally, Mayo will likely keep improving, and Woods/Burgess/Guyton/Brace etc... should get familiar with their roles and improve over time. I just can't credit that at the start of the year, which is why I noted:



in reference to the linebackers and



in reference to the secondary.

This is my take on the defense. If you, and Andy, disagree, so be it. Nobody is going to be 'right' or 'wrong' on this, because it's really not an answerable question.

There is certainly room for disagreement on this topic, but you dont seem to be even accepting the question. If you are going to compare how the defense plays, you have to compare the guys who will be playing. If a 4 down player is replaced by 2 2 down players, you have to split the comparison, or its just not valid.

I think the difference on the injury issue is that those players are 100% certain to have those injuries last year, and not so certain to do so this year.
Use AD as an example. AD in 2008 played half the season. Worse his backup only played 3 games and we went to the street to get guys on the field.
Its hard to imagine that it is likely to go that way this year.
I would have to predict we will be better at ADs spot this year, because it is likely he plays more than half the season. That could be right or wrong, but to say you can only assume the same injuries is to say we arent better at QB this year, because Brady was the starter last year too.

 

[Kontradiction]

Which is why I'm amused by Patsox and Andy debating this stuff with me when I noted



in my first post.

Yeah. Personally, I think they will. People will just have to be patient (a foreign word around Patsfans) with them at the beginning of the season of they struggle against "sub-par" offenses. Sometimes, people like to forget that this defensive system is one of the most difficult in the league to learn and pretty much every single starting cornerback we have on this team is brand new. Outside of injuries on that side of the ball, which I'm hoping we get a reprieve from this year, that would be the only reason in which the defense would struggle this year. Thankfully, as Andy pointed out, we go up against some offenses that are not that good and our offense should be able to carry us if this happens (with the exception of Baltimore who, as I pointed out in the Predict the Record thread, I think we will lose to).

 

[Ring 6]

No, it's not. Furthermore, your claim that this is a 3-4 team does not make it so, as Pats1 would be happy to tell you.

Also, if you were going to try breaking it down the way you are, which I don't accept, you'd be using Bruschi/Guyton in last year's group rather than just Bruschi, because Guyton was in for passing downs.

OK, so Bruschi/Guyton is now Guyton...OK

Im not sure why you insist on comparing Vrabel to only one player when 2 will take over his jobs.
Vrabel was an OLB in the base. He was a DE in the sub.
He played roughly 50% of each.
How can you say that you ignore 50% of what he did by only comparing him to the OLB in the base.
I agree Vrabel playing 100% of the time is better than Woods playing 50% of the time and being on the sidelines the other 50%.
If Woods will not be on the field in sub pakages does it really matter if Vrabel is better than him in those situations? Arent we trying to compare Vrabel to the guy who will take his snaps? Because that 'guy' is actually 2 guys your point of view makes no sense to me.

 

[Deus Irae]

There is certainly room for disagreement on this topic, but you dont seem to be even accepting the question. If you are going to compare how the defense plays, you have to compare the guys who will be playing. If a 4 down player is replaced by 2 2 down players, you have to split the comparison, or its just not valid.

Your 'question' isn't a question. It's an assertion without factual backing and an insistence that I break down my analysis in the way that you prefer even though I find that manner to be the wrong approach to take. As I noted, even using your argument, you turned around and did what you're complaining about my doing when you failed to include Guyton with Bruschi for last year's group.

I think the difference on the injury issue is that those players are 100% certain to have those injuries last year, and not so certain to do so this year.
Use AD as an example. AD in 2008 played half the season. Worse his backup only played 3 games and we went to the street to get guys on the field.
Its hard to imagine that it is likely to go that way this year.
I would have to predict we will be better at ADs spot this year, because it is likely he plays more than half the season. That could be right or wrong, but to say you can only assume the same injuries is to say we arent better at QB this year, because Brady was the starter last year too.

Now you're projecting injuries and games lost to them? I refuse to go down that rabbit hole.

 

[Deus Irae]

OK, so Bruschi/Guyton is now Guyton...OK

Im not sure why you insist on comparing Vrabel to only one player when 2 will take over his jobs.
Vrabel was an OLB in the base. He was a DE in the sub.
He played roughly 50% of each.
How can you say that you ignore 50% of what he did by only comparing him to the OLB in the base.
I agree Vrabel playing 100% of the time is better than Woods playing 50% of the time and being on the sidelines the other 50%.
If Woods will not be on the field in sub pakages does it really matter if Vrabel is better than him in those situations? Arent we trying to compare Vrabel to the guy who will take his snaps? Because that 'guy' is actually 2 guys your point of view makes no sense to me.

Vrabel, even thoug injured, had more sacks than Burgess did last year. Again, even using your basis, I simply and rationally come do a different conclusion than you do.