Sicilian
PatsFans.com Supporter
PatsFans.com Supporter
2021 Weekly Picks Winner
2023 Weekly Picks Winner
- Joined
- Dec 6, 2007
- Messages
- 12,639
- Reaction score
- 21,526
Registered Members experience this forum ad and noise-free.
CLICK HERE to Register for a free account and login for a smoother ad-free experience. It's easy, and only takes a few moments.Our drafts have been horrendous. Dexter Reid, Guss Scott, Behtel, Chad Jackson...in time it will catch up. Although they've done a great job with FAs this year.
I am happy that BB seems like he's more involved this year. I think maybe SP was just gumming things up. Hopefully that's true.
I don't know why they're looking so hard at CBs though. No room on the roster for another, they have 5 good ones and richardson already. I could see a late round project but that's it.
in the past three years, ... people read that part, right?
If this is the only criteria they are using to determine who is the best and worst in the past three years, then the writer is correct.
I do not agree that this is the best way to judge success in drafting, but this is the only argument that the writer is making. And he is correct: we have the lowest percentage of players drafted in the past three years on our active roster of all 32 teams in the league. Is he wrong there?
Here's a thought: Instead of looking at how many draftees make the team's active roster, a better barometer of success might be a survey of the last three years of drafts for all 32 NFL teams. To judge them, we looked at the percentage of players from those three draft classes who were still listed as active members of the team.
Read it all the way through before you kick the dog, it puts things in a better perspective than you might think at first blush.
Best And Worst NFL Draft Teams - Forbes.com
Reiss had a link to it and he summed it up pretty well as to why the article is semantics and/or plain wrong.
Having more rookies make your team certainly does not mean you draft better. It mainly just means your team sucks.
The Forbes measure is a simplistic one for sure. But can anyone really disagree with the findings - the Pats just haven't drafted well in recent years. I would say that weak drafts are the #1 reason the franchise has slipped from Super Bowl winner to strong playoff contender over the last five years.
Yes.... I posted this elsewhere about this same topic, but it fits here too:
1st round picks:
2008 - Jerod Mayo
2007 - Brandon Meriweather
2006 - Laurence Maroney
2nd round picks:
2008 - Terrence Wheatley
2007 - None
2006 - Chad Jackson
3rd round picks:
2008 - Shawn Crable, Kevin O'Connell
2007 - None
2006 - David Thomas
4th round picks:
2008 - Jonathan Wilhite
2007 - Kareem Brown
2006 - Garrett Mills, Stephen Gostkowski
I'll stop here in the interest of my sanity. Now, take a look at that group and you'll find only 3 of them aren't still with the team: Jackson, Mills and Brown.
Jackson is currently in Denver, Mills is in Minnesota and Brown is with the Jets. Every single draft pick taken in round 4 or higher is still in the NFL.
Furthermore, some other notes:
1.) Gostkowski is an All-Pro kicker
2.) Mayo was just the defensive rookie of the year.
3.) Mayo, Maroney and Meriweather, Wheatley and Wilhite have all seen time as starters
4.) The team didn't have either a 2nd or 3rd round pick in 2007 due to trades
5.) Thomas is the team's #2 tight end as of this moment.
6.) Crable ended up on the IR as a rookie.
7.) O'Connell ended the season as the team's #2 QB
Another misleading aspect about the article is that the Patriots have had so many lower round picks in the past 3 seasons. They've had 17 picks in the 4th round or later, compared to only 8 picks in the first 3 rounds (due to trades and losing a first rounder via the commissioner). Therefore, weighting a 7th round pick as equal to a first round pick is naturally going to skew the results under such circumstances.
would be interesting to know the percentages of first rd picks still with their team over the course of say the last ten years and compare....and maybe each rd by itself.
And also maybe instead of just with the team maybe starting or contributing a certain percentage of snaps.
Its funny that many here are offended by the article. I've read this article and came away the impression that there isn't necessary a correlation between great drafting and being successful. The Steelers and the Patriots haven't been this good and the Colts and the Giants have been in drafting. All four teams have enjoyed a lot success nevertheless.
Its funny that many here are offended by the article. I've read this article and came away the impression that there isn't necessary a correlation between great drafting and being successful. The Steelers and the Patriots haven't been this good and the Colts and the Giants have been in drafting. All four teams have enjoyed a lot success nevertheless.
We looked at this on another site - this adjusts for round, and focuses on the entire Bill Belichick drafting era with the Patriots. Several 2008 picks were called Incomplete, so the percentages don't always total 100% or cover every single pick.
Answer to your questions from that analysis:
The results:
ROUND ONE
Pro-Bowl - 33%
Starter - 67%
The Patriots have never blown a first rounder.
ROUND TWO
Pro Bowl - 13%
Starter - 25%
Contributor - 38%
Non-contributor - 25%
The Patriots draft one bust in four in the second.
ROUND THREE
Pro Bowl - 0%
Starter - 33%
Contributor - 17%
Non-contributor - 50%
The bust rate doubles, although the Patriots have drafted a very small number of third rounders over the Belichick era.
ROUND FOUR
Pro Bowl - 14%
Starter - 7%
Contributor - 36%
Non-contributor - 43%
Actually historically better performance in Four than Three.
ROUND FIVE
Pro Bowl - 13%
Starter - 0%
Contributor - 13%
Non-contributor - 75%
Another huge jump in "bust" rate here.
ROUND SIX
Pro Bowl - 7% (guesses?)
Starter - 0%
Contributor - 14%
Non-contributor - 71%
ROUND SEVEN
Pro Bowl - 0%
Starter - 13%
Contributor - 27%
Non-contributor - 60%
Hey - excellent baseline data.
So, we can compare Pat's performance:
Round 1 -- 75 % league -- 100 % Belichick
Round 2 -- 50 % league -- 38 % Belichick
Round 3 -- 30 % league -- 33 % Belichick
Round 4 -- 25 % league -- 21 % Belichick
Round 5 -- 20 % league -- 13 % Belichick
Round 6 -- 9 % league-- 7 % Belichick
Round 7 -- 9 % league -- 13 % Belichick
Which just says that the Patriots' draft performance is, well, pretty close to league average.
3) Success in late rounders. Not only drafting role players (Patrick Pass, Kevin Faulk) or serviceable special teamers, but also drafting late round starters: David Givens, Dan Koppen, some slow footed kid from Michigan, etc.