Forbes: Drafting Success - A Paradox to Ponder

[BradyFTW!]

Looking strictly at a team's draft results and declaring it "good" or "bad" at drafting without looking at FA is somewhat similar to looking at a team's passing statistics and declaring it "good" or "bad" at passing without accounting for the rushing offense.

Drafting is just one way that a team is put together, and, if you do an excellent job in FA, you will have fewer draftees make the team. What's important, IMO, is that, when a team has a hole to fill and is counting on the draft to fill it, that hole gets filled. In that respect, the Pats have been successful. Not the best in the league, sure, but far above average.

 

[PatsDeb]

The entire premise is flawed. Just because you keep your draft picks doesn't mean you're better at drafting. It just means it takes you longer to let them go. The Houston Texans are the "best" yet they've never made the playoffs. The Pats & the Steelers are among the "worst" yet they've won, what, 5 of the last 7 or 8 Superbowls.

You can afford to cut people who aren't quite what you need when other people on your team are good players. When you're all mediocre, more of you can stick around. That's all this "formula" proves.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Any draft that produce a probowl player is a success.
Any draft that produces a probowl player plus a HOF player is a double success.
Any draft that produces three probowl players is an unmitigated great success.

Such was the results of the 2007 draft. 1 HOF fame WR in the 4th round. 1 probowl WR in the 2nd and 7th round. And a future probowl Safety in the 1st round. A Great draft. Critics are myopic and sub-optimally short-sited.

The object of the off-season talent maneuvers, including the draft, is to replenish and build a team.

Using draft choices one may select from both the collegiate and also from the NFL pool of football talent. Both are valid pools; indeed the NFL talent pool is superior, in that your "selection" has already established that he can perform in the NFL. The collegiate talent pool offers no such assurance. In the present day environment of enforced Free Agency after four years of play or training, the youhtful draft is devalued considerably from what it once was worth.

 

[BradyManny]

Hey - excellent baseline data.

So, we can compare Pat's performance:

Round 1 -- 75 % league -- 100 % Belichick
Round 2 -- 50 % league -- 38 % Belichick
Round 3 -- 30 % league -- 33 % Belichick
Round 4 -- 25 % league -- 21 % Belichick
Round 5 -- 20 % league -- 13 % Belichick
Round 6 -- 9 % league-- 7 % Belichick
Round 7 -- 9 % league -- 13 % Belichick

Which just says that the Patriots' draft performance is, well, pretty close to league average.

The ginormous flaw in your data is that the Patriots year after year picking towards the end of every round. 50% of 2nd rounders may be busts, but how many of the non-busts are in the 33-50 range? Ditto that for 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, etc.