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Forbes: Drafting Success - A Paradox to Ponder

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Box_O_Rocks, Apr 9, 2009.

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  1. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Read it all the way through before you kick the dog, it puts things in a better perspective than you might think at first blush.

    Best And Worst NFL Draft Teams - Forbes.com
  2. ALP

    ALP Rookie

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    before anyone beats me to it w/ the obvious...

    the more talent ur team has, the less rookies that are gonna make it...


    need i explain further?
  3. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Standby, the opportunity for further explanation should arise in the next couple days. ;)
  4. BradyFTW!

    BradyFTW! PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 Jersey

    Yeah, that pretty much covers it. It's a lot easier to stick on the Texans' roster than the Patriots'. You have to be damn good to make it for the Pats.
  5. nashvillepatsfan

    nashvillepatsfan Rookie

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    They might have had a couple of misses, but c'mon. Worst? That reporter is a moron. I'm going back to reading about Gisele, and her army of bodyguards. Wake me when the draft starts :rolleyes:
  6. TealSox

    TealSox Guest

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    I've seen posts on the Raiders message board with more thought/insight.

    Draft picks = Randy Moss from Raiders and Wes Welker from Dolphins

    Draft picks = Eventual Free Agents = Potential Compensatory picks

    (see Asante Samuel, et al)

    Draft picks = trade for other Draft picks = Tradeable commodity or rookies

    (see Patriots 1st round pick to 49ers and 49ers pick turning into Jerod Mayo)

    Draft pick = Rookies = tradeable commodity

    (see Deion Branch to the Seahawks)
  7. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Wonder if BB and his crew use Bulletin Board material to help keep them motivated....

    BTW when did this mag start covering sports??? Is someone bored..
    Last edited: Apr 9, 2009
  8. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    They've had articles in the past discussing the business of the NFL, not to mention the leadership aspects that lead to business success. The draft is certainly one of the Human Resources aspects of the Sports Entertainment industry.
  9. xmarkd400x

    xmarkd400x Rookie

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    They should really have correlated % of draftees on the roster to win % or something like that.

    Sure, a team with crap players will keep more draftees. However, a team that keeps little or no draftees will probably suffer.

    Also, there's teams with different philosophies. The Colts try to build almost entirely through the draft, and the Pats seem to place equal value on veteran FAs and the draft.

    /shrug

    I will say that it seems keeping less draftees on your team is a symptom of success (as one would expect).

    The interesting thing is that even the Patriots, one of the "worst" teams, still have 50% of their team being made up by players drafted in the past 3 years. It really shows the importance of the draft.
  10. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    That ~50% is the percentage of Pats draftees over the last three years that are still in a Patriots uniform.

    Needless to say, it's badly skewed by the eight draftees in the last three rounds of the 2007 draft who nevertheless, I guess, were supposed to make their way onto the most talented Patriots roster of all time.
  11. Urgent

    Urgent Rookie

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    You really need to adjust for draft round.

    This analysis inherently assumes that a first round, third round, and seventh round pick are equally valuable. They are looking at the total number of drafted players and total subset from that group remaining with the team.

    Further, they are looking at a relatively short window.

    The Patriots, within that window, have the 2007 draft, when they surrendered a second for Welker and a fourth for Moss. They drafted Meriweather in the first, then their next drafted pick was in the fourth, with Kareem Brown. They had eight picks from the fourth on; six in the final two rounds. Unsurprisingly, only Meriweather remains with the team.

    Their fourth pick in the 2007 draft was in the sixth round. Contrast that distribution of picks with 2009, when the Patriots fourth pick is in the second round.

    If you adjust for round, you will see very different results.

    The Forbes approach labels the 2007 draft a terrible failure.
    However, the Patriots, in addition to Kareem Brown, Clint Oldenburg, Justin Rogers, et al.;
    Traded 2007 #28 for 2008 #7, eventually becoming Jerod Mayo.
    Traded 2007 second for Wes Welker at an affordable deal.
    Traded 2007 third for 2008 #69, and then for 2009 #47.
    Traded 2007 fourth for Randy Moss at a way-below-market deal.

    So, if you looked at the 2007 draft results as Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Jerod Mayo, Brandon Meriweather, and an extra 2009 second rounder, that's not so bad. If you consider 100% of the Day One picks are with the team, but 0% of the Day Two picks, that's not terrible.

    What makes more sense to compare is the relative results by round.
  12. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Mike Richardson is still with the team too.
  13. PatsWickedPissah

    PatsWickedPissah PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Disable Jersey

    Well since it's a proven fact that the financial reporting mags, Forbes et. al., utterly failed to anticipate the subprime Black Swan that devastated the economy, they might as well try finding alternate venues where they have at least some shot at competency. Just a thought.
  14. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Well, judging by this article, that venue isn't football reporting.
  15. Patsfanin Philly

    Patsfanin Philly Rookie

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    Both of his busts are still in the NFL, albeit on different teams, Mills with the Vikings ( and only cause he couldn't slip thru waivers) and brown with the Jets. And Brown was a 4th round pick , not a second rounder. When you have to go 4th round to find busts, you're scraping the bottle of the barrel. If he had picked Chad Jackson, he might have had some credibility...
  16. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Well, the true business aspects, they're fine at. But stuff that actually requires understanding things like, you know, how to build a roster? Not so much.
  17. Lockdown06

    Lockdown06 Rookie

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    I'm not giving to much credit to an article that lists Kareem Brown as a 2nd rounder and Garrett Mills as a running back
  18. Pats726

    Pats726 Rookie

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    I started reading and and saw that teh Texans was the best..amd then I realized what they were doing..and with that saw taht NO SURPRISE of where the Pats were. Can we say garbage?? The writer has no clue about what it takes to build a real roster..it's almost embarrassing...maybe they should stick to finaces...something they know about!! ooops..they stink on that as well..
  19. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    And Jackson is also still in the NFL.
  20. WelshPat

    WelshPat Rookie

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    The great thing about being a good team is that it puts less pressure on your drafts, you can attract vets who can come in and play straight away, allowing you to make more trades into extra years.

    When the pats really needed to draft well, in the early days for Bill , for the most part they did.

    At the end of the day it dosent really matter that the last 3 drafts have been sub-par. You got to an AFC champ game, a superbowl, and went 11-5. Thats pretty phenominal.
  21. signbabybrady

    signbabybrady Rookie

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    would be interesting to know the percentages of first rd picks still with their team over the course of say the last ten years and compare....and maybe each rd by itself.

    And also maybe instead of just with the team maybe starting or contributing a certain percentage of snaps.
  22. Lloyd_Christmas

    Lloyd_Christmas I can delete my own crap! PatsFans.com Supporter

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    You made some excellent points.

    I also want to point out that just "remaining on the team" is not an indication of a draft success.

    Usually when we have these discussions, we bring up the round they were drafted in and whether or not they became starters, are dependable backups, are special teams standouts, etc. Just being on the team only means so much.

    As someone pointed out, if you have a crappy team, there is a higher chance that you will retain a marginal draft pick that you believe has some upside... at the very lease, you have the luxury of holding on to a questionable pick longer ... that's where the small window they chose comes into play to help skew the numbers even more.

    The article is like a poorly run science experiment where the results have led to an eroneous conclusion because important factors were not considered. It's hard to believe people get paid to write this stuff.
    Last edited: Apr 9, 2009
  23. KingChre

    KingChre Rookie

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    So...after reading this article, I'm to assume that the only way to evaluate a successful draft is the amount of rookies from year to year that stick with a team? This is such a crock of BS that I feel foolish and petulant even responding to it, but I'm off today from work, and quite bored, so hey, what the heck? :rolleyes:

    I would admit that the last few years were not the best drafts they've had, and there are a couple of questionable picks (Maroney and Jackson immediately come to mind), but as other posters have noted, the Patriots don't view the draft as simply a way to infuse its roster with youth, they use it as a utility in getting better as a team.

    That's why you see them make trades for players, and trade up & down all over the draft board, and into subsequent years. They use the draft as they see fit, and I love their approach. It's obviously hard to argue with their success.
  24. Terry Glenn is a cowgirl

    Terry Glenn is a cowgirl Banned

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    Every year they get the list of the richest people in the world wrong too.

    Bill Gates is the richest man in the world?

    Ummmm... OK.:singing:

    Sure!!!! :rolleyes:
  25. TimU

    TimU Rookie

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    The Forbes measure is a simplistic one for sure. But can anyone really disagree with the findings - the Pats just haven't drafted well in recent years. I would say that weak drafts are the #1 reason the franchise has slipped from Super Bowl winner to strong playoff contender over the last five years.
  26. apple strudel

    apple strudel Banned

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    Oh my. Almost super bowl winner last year. And last year was a pretty sweet draft for them. The findings are silly. The Texans haven't won crap and have a depleted roster easy to fill with draftees. Ugh.
  27. MoLewisrocks

    MoLewisrocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    LOL Success is truly relative...
  28. Ryan

    Ryan Guest

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    I guess this shows that great drafting isn't an absolute necessity when it comes to winning in the NFL. Despite poor drafts, the Pats have still been the class of the NFL.
  29. BadMoFo

    BadMoFo Rookie

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    How dare anyone make light of the mighty Patriots. We are the best at everything. Right, guys?
  30. apple strudel

    apple strudel Banned

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    It also shows how flawed methodology gives convenient or misleading results.
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