A long hard look at our defense

[mgteich]

I agree with all your assessment of where we are as of now. I just think that Harrison may not have the will to bring himself back to game shape after a serious injury yet again. ANd, of course, he is a free agent. However, as we go into 2009, we need to be thinking about developing players for 2010 and beyond. Let's see the effect of free agency (and age) on the 2010 picture which we should use the draft to improve. We have major holes, even if everyone remains healthy.

DL We will have Warren and perhaps Smith. Wright is signed through 2008. Seymour, Wilfork and Green are signed through 2009.

ILB We have 2 starters and no depth.

OLB We will Thomas, Crable and Redd.

CB Hobbs, Wheatley, Wilhite and Richardson

S Meriweather
James Sanders in a free agent this year. Harrison could be a backup, but unlikely.

BOTTOM LINE
DL) We will likely need help. Wilfork is worth whatever he wants. However it seems unlikely that ALL of the other three will extend.
LB) If Crable and Redd work out, we would have almost completely solved the LB problem with the four 2009 acquisitions. Even so, depth at ILB is needed.
DB) This has been a four year turnover. So far, we have added Meriweather, Wheatley Wilhite and Richardson. Hopefully, that's at least a starting free safety, a starting nickel and a dime back who plays ST's. Add Hobbs and we're only half done on building a backfield. We are still 3-4 players short. We need a starting CB, a starting SS and a backup safety or two. James Sanders could be a backup safety, but it seems likely that ONE team would want him as a starter.

The good news is that we are in reasonable 2009 cap shape and also have lots of 2009 draft choices.

Summary:

DL is in very good shape, pending future free agency.

ILB is in good shape. I think Bruschi will willingly play as a backup for as long as he can contribute. He preaches about checking one's ego at the door all the time; I think he will listen to himself and do the same thing.

At OLB we have one excellent starter (currently injured) and one good but declining one (was an All Pro VERY recently). Depth is very questionable, and a great situational pass rusher would be very good to have.

At CB we have one perfectly decent #2, a promising rookie or two, and JAGs. A Darrell Revis kind of draft pick would be very nice, if it were to work out.

A S we have one good emerging starter in Meriweather and one poor starter/excellent backup in Sanders. Something should be done. But I'm a bit stumped. Rodney Harrison in his prime was one of the few safeties in the history of the world who could play as anything from a no-apologies LB to a no-apologies CB.

 

[Seneschal2]

A long hard look at our defense

Excellent work -- appreciate your effort!

---

And this post is worthy of it's own thread:

What really is lacking in this defense right now more than anything are playmakers in the back 8. Part of forcing a team to drive the long field and not giving up big plays is it creates more opportunity to make plays on defense and stop them. No one is stepping up and making that sack, forcing that fumble, making the INT.

Who makes the plays on the current D? Vrabel and Bruschi and Rodney before his injury just aren't that type of player anymore. No one in the secondary qualifies. Mayo looks like he will be that kind of guy but he is a rookie and as one would expect he isn't quite there yet. Thomas made plays before he went out but he was really the only one.

If you think back to the 2003-2004 defenses you had Vrabel, Bruschi, Harrison, Willie Mac, and Law (later Asante) back there. All those guys made a lot of big plays during those seasons. You forget until you go back and watch those old Pats/Colts games or other big games how many of the big stops the Pats D made came in the Red Zone.

The LCB position is near vacant when you compare what exists now, to the playmaking abilities of Law and Samuel.

And then there's Rodney. Sure, he slowed some. But the smarts and leadership he exhibited would prove to be valuable to the entire unit's current woes...not to mention his physicality, which certainly intimidates the opposition's receivers. And let's not forget the fact he is/was the all-time sack leader among Safeties. How many of us have been wanting one of those timely blitzes of late?

Those are just two missing ingredients from this team's defense. We can also add the one-winged play of our edge-rushing OLBs, and the obvious imbalance (inexperience vs experience) of the back eight.

Just some reasoning/opinion behind the troubled D. Cause for concern yes -- but mucho hope remains...

 

[cstjohn17]

Pros: DLine. Young ILBs who are exceeding expectations.
Cons: Secondary. Lack of pass rush. Unbalanced Age. After the 3 vets retire, we are left with a bunch of young, inexperienced players on defense, with no one but AD and the DLine to bring maturity, discipline, and leadership.

Nice breakdown, very balanced. I would give AD more props for his versatility alone. He can play all 4 LB positions as well as DE but that is a minor point.

My answer (and personal binkie) is Terrell Suggs with 2 of the first 6 picks being for the secondary. He will get a killer contract but adds a whole new dimension to the defense, offenses could not defend Suggs and AD 1:1, leaving some mismatches. He is only 26 and also brings a much needed swagger.

Think of this front seven.

Warren, Wilfork, Seymour <-- needs more depth
Suggs, Guyton, Mayo, Thomas

LB depth = Vrabel, Bruschi, Woods, Redd, Alexander, Izzo

 

[JackBauer]

I think that Sanders will be re-signed, and will be the starting S next year.

There are simply too many holes elsewhere to expect us to replace him. He's been starting now for how long, and saw the field a bunch earlier this year even when Rodney was healthy.

Sanders is about the fifth or sixth starter I would replace at this point. It deserves mentioning that it's a little difficult to evaluate the secondary this year due to the chronic lack of a pass rush (speaking of pass rush, what happened to Jarvis Green?). It is, however, crystal clear that Deltha O'Neal is this year's Duane Starks, pass rush be damned.

 

[BionicPatriot]

Great thread.

I agree, we need another CB. Not a FA street bum, and actual respectable CB. We don't need a great one, we deep depth though because they always go down. As long as our pass rush can return, they'll get the job done.

OLB is the real problem. ADT is good, I understand. But he seemed to really get after it the first 2 or so weeks, than it stopped. Did he fall off? Was the scheme different? I agree he was valuable alone for his versatility, and I'm OK with him as a starter. I just have been dissapointed. The Adalius in SB 42 is the Adalius I want to see on Sunday's.

We need a new SS. Ever since Harrison had a big injury in 05, and being nailed again in 06, the safety play has really fallen off. I don't think people are wrong blaming the deep balls on the secondary, but just on who. It seems we love to think CBs are the end all for the defense, they make all the plays and **** them all up. The funny thing is when deep balls kill you, that's safety play. I really think Sanders has sucked back there this year.

Meriweather is dissapointing this season. I think people over rate him. For once, the fact we think he's a star because he makes INTs tells me everything. A great DB makes all kind of plays, not just INTs. I've yet to see him constantly be on his man, breaking up passes, making big stops. A few INTs doesn't convince me. I think he deserves enough time to develop and he's looked good at times. He definantly looks like he can grow into a possible player. But I don't see the whole star potential.

 

[BradyToMoss]

I really think Sanders has sucked back there this year.

James Sanders really shouldn't be a starter, but unfortunately, much like the situation with Deltha First-Down-Cushion, he's best we have. He's a role player and is really a 3rd safety on most teams, a depth guy, yet we have to start him.

I can't remember his last pick and the guy is never, ever around the football. He has taken bad tackling angles many times in the past (see KC week one and many others such as the Addai before the half screen for a TD in Indy, just to name a few). For a 4th round pick, that's about what you get, he's peaked, he won't get any better and I hope he moves on and we get a play maker back there from the draft to pair up with Meriweather.

 

[KillEM]

Nice post, but I have to take one major objection:


How can you call his pass rush "average" when he had 5 sacks in 10 games when he was only pass rushing in a limited role?

He was on pace to have 8 sacks on the year. That is average.

 

[billdog3484]

nice job. seems like you put a lot of thought into the post. you seem to have a good grasp on the players. i agree for the most part.

 

[ALP]

Great thread.

I agree, we need another CB. Not a FA street bum, and actual respectable CB. We don't need a great one, we deep depth though because they always go down. As long as our pass rush can return, they'll get the job done.

OLB is the real problem. ADT is good, I understand. But he seemed to really get after it the first 2 or so weeks, than it stopped. Did he fall off? Was the scheme different? I agree he was valuable alone for his versatility, and I'm OK with him as a starter. I just have been dissapointed. The Adalius in SB 42 is the Adalius I want to see on Sunday's.

We need a new SS. Ever since Harrison had a big injury in 05, and being nailed again in 06, the safety play has really fallen off. I don't think people are wrong blaming the deep balls on the secondary, but just on who. It seems we love to think CBs are the end all for the defense, they make all the plays and **** them all up. The funny thing is when deep balls kill you, that's safety play. I really think Sanders has sucked back there this year.

Meriweather is dissapointing this season. I think people over rate him. For once, the fact we think he's a star because he makes INTs tells me everything. A great DB makes all kind of plays, not just INTs. I've yet to see him constantly be on his man, breaking up passes, making big stops. A few INTs doesn't convince me. I think he deserves enough time to develop and he's looked good at times. He definantly looks like he can grow into a possible player. But I don't see the whole star potential.

ill have to disagree about meriweather...

he should be playing fs, but for some reason he is playing the role of ss, which is not suited to him...

watch him in running plays, the kid is always in the pile, and always b4 the runner goes down, he is amazing at run support, and since he plays ss right now, thats what he should be

if we ever get a real SS and can move meri to his true position of fs, then youll see him make all kinds of passing plays

 

[condon84]

Good assessment.

I disagree on AD. He is in a different defense in NE compared to Baltimore. His first year, he was asked to play ILB and be the main LB to cover TEs or drop back in zone. He wasn't utilized as a rusher until Colvin got hurt. Even then, he still dropped back most of the time while Vrabel was the main OLB used as a rusher. The only game I can remember that AD was committed to rushing the QB was the Super Bowl and he dominated in that game.

Even this year when AD was one of the OLB, he was still being used as the OLB that dropped back into zone coverage while Vrabel rushed. The few times AD was used as a rusher, he generally generates pressure. Also, our scheme isn't one like the Steelers or the Ravens where the OLB's job is to put pressure on the offense and get to the backfield. Our OLBs are asked to engage blockers and read plays.

I wouldn't say Vrabel is our weakest link in the front seven. I'd say it's Bruschi. There are times when Bruschi is in there and the guy he is responsible for (RB) stays in the backfield to pass protect allowing Bruschi to rush the QB. It's a pathetic sight. Meanwhile, I've seen Guyton in the same predicament and when he does have the opportunity to rush the passer, he's put on some good pressure and knocked the QB down several times. Bruschi is just "there". He needs to go.

I completely agree with your assessment regarding our secondary. Hobbs is horrible. He gets beat so often for deep plays AND for intermediate AND for short completions. The guy is a scrub. He plays 10 yards off the reciever and he doesn't have the burst of speed to read and deflect short/intermediate passes and he also doesn't backpedal and transition fast enough to a full sprint to cover deep passes. Maybe he just lacks instinct and can't read plays fast enough because he always seems flat footed and a couple of steps behind.

Delta is a scrub. No analysis needed.

Merriweather is better suited for FS because of his range and athletic abilites.

Sanders is awful. Not athletic enough to keep up with recievers. He continues to baffle me by constantly using bad angles to stop ballcarriers. Special teamer at best.

Wilhite, Wheatley, and also Richardson needs some seasoning.

Our DL is one of the best.

Can't forget our scheming. Since Mangini left, our blitz package has been bland and unimaginative. We finally saw a corner blitz last week and Hobbs got a sack. Why haven't we been using more of that? Where's the zone blitzing we used to use when we were winning Super Bowls? Once upon a time, what other teams feared about playing the Pats was to get in third and long situations because they never knew what BB might bring to pressure the QB. Now, we can't even get off on 3 and 12.

 

[CheerforTom]

I think the board is a little hard on Woods. He's doing a fairly good job and is involved in some good plays. He's not the next Bruschi, but for a backup he'll do well.

 

[ausbacker]

I think the board is a little hard on Woods. He's doing a fairly good job and is involved in some good plays. He's not the next Bruschi, but for a backup he'll do well.

Woods plays outside like Thomas/Vrabel, not inside like Bruschi.

 

[BradyManny]

He was on pace to have 8 sacks on the year. That is average.

He got hurt at the start of the 10th game, I would say he was on pace for 9 or 10 sacks. Probably 10 because he would be rushing more now with Guyton's role increasing on a game to game basis. 10 sacks would've put him 15th in the league last year in sacks, up there with Tuck & Peterson. I'd hardly call that average. If you look at that list, there's a lot of good pass rushers with 6 or 7 sacks there, so I think you're definition of what an average sack total is a little off.

And to me the larger issue is this: Adalius was not being used in the pass rush frequently at the start of the year, and still was dropping in coverage, spying RBs as the season went on. If they had a sack per pass rush attempt stat, I bet he'd be up there at the top of the league. Like I said, the first few games of the season, he probably only rushed the passer a half dozen times each game. Once Mayo got more acclimated, that number rose.

 

[PatsFan37]

Great thread. Good to see a real football discussion with pros and cons instead of a lot of knee-jerk whining.

One of the things I feel the team is missing is the power nickel and dime packages that Belichick wanted to work around Tank Williams, playing a big safety at LB. It worked with Rodney, but Tank is just as big and a lot faster. With him on the field next year, they'll be effective against the run while playing the pass.

I didn't think this far into the season I'd be missing a rookie. Wheatley would almost certainly be an upgrade by now over O'Neal, who has been getting torched.

But AD was the biggest loss of the season, next to you-know-who.

I also don't think we can underestimate the loss of Warren recently. The Steelers ran at will over Mike Wright.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

The Steelers ran at will over Mike Wright.

Not quite "at will." I DVR'd the game while I was at church and watched it after coming home and seeing the final score - so I was trying to analyze where the breakdowns might be to lead to a 33-10 score. Colon moved Mike off the line on the second play from scrimmage, so I focused on that battle all game - Colon did blow Mike off the line a couple times, but most of the time Mike was competitive.

The big problem was Vrabel. Playing on the defensive left he was being pushed wide - when Vrabes was playing on the defensive right he held his ground. I can't help but believe Vrabes does have a shoulder problem and it appears to be his right shoulder which he would be using to engage the blocker when setting the edge on the left side.

 

[strongside]

Agree on the OLB. With the 3 interrior linemen playing 2-gap and taking double teams Vrabel/Woods are manily responsible for getting pressue from the edge. Vrabel is getting beat every play 1 0n 1 and woods can ben handled most times by a TE.

 

[Rob0729]

I think the board is a little hard on Woods.

Hey! Hey! Hey! Keep that dirty talk off the board please!

 

[nepatz11]

Merriweather i think will be a great FS or corner back it is not his fault he is being asked to play more of a SS with harrison down. As a FS or a corner back he would be a great hitter as a SS he is just a little too small.

 

[stcjones]

DE - Richard Seymour - Still playing great. Having one of his best years ever. I don't know how anyone can say he's not as good as he used to be. Look at his numbers this year. He will probably beat his career high for sacks and tackles! The only "dominant" player on our DLine.

DE - Ty Warren - Solid. Great against the run. Young and locked up in a long term contract. Nothing to worry about here as long as there's no serious injuries.

NT - Vince Wilfork - Playing his best football ever. We all know a good NT is hard to come by. Wilfork is young and has done everything that's been asked of him. He's the #1 priority when it comes to re-signing players.

OLB - Adalius Thomas - Not as good as we thought he would be. Thomas has been decent, but nothing special. When he was healthy, he stood out among the linebackers this year as he was the only guy who could get any pressure on the QBs. Even then, his pass rush was just average. Not sure if he was worth the big price tag that came with him. He looked a lot better in Baltimore's defense, probably because he was surrounded by one of the best D's in the league. The positive is that when the older guys (Bruschi,Vrabel,Rodney) are gone, AD will still be here to provide veteran leadership and maturity to an otherwise young defense.

ILB - Jerod mayo - I'm impressed. Will most likely win DROY honors. He's had some ups and downs this year, but he's a solid Linebacker and will keep improving. Look at his game against the NYJets if you question his potential. I thought he was too much of a reach at #10 but he's turned out to be a great pick. Barring any serious injury, Mayo will be a cornerstone to our defense for the next 10 years. I am surprised how quickly he's picked up the playbook and asserted himself in the defense.

ILB - Tedy Bruschi - Not the same player he used to be. Will probably finish up his contract next year as a back-up to Gary Guyton, and then retire. Nice career as he was a key player in our Dynasty era. Guyton has quickly replaced him. At this point in his career, Bruschi provides good depth and veteran leadership.

ILB - Gary Guyton - See above. An UDFA Rookie who has come in and played a lot of reps in BB's defense. That's unheard of. He has great athletic ability and brings energy to our defense. I like what I've seen so far. He's made some minor rookie mistakes but nothing that won't be corrected with time.

OLB - Mike Vrabel - He had a Pro Bowl season last year, but he's quickly declined. Last year he had 12.5 sacks, this year he only has 3. Vrabel's also getting a lot more assisted tackles and less solo tackles. I admire his experience, but he's probably the weakest link in our front 7 right now, considering how important OLB is in the 34 scheme. His pass rush is next to nothing, and one of the main reasons our defense can't stop 3rd downs or prevent TD's in the red zone.

OLB - Pierre Woods - I can't believe he's starting. Woods should be a career special teamer and 3rd string OLB. He looks like a rookie out there, despite being in the system for quite awhile now.

S - Brandon Meriweather - I'm happy to see he's improved his hands and made some big INT's this year. The only play maker and big hitter in our secondary right now. His INT's all came at crucial points in the game which helped us pull away for the win. He would probably be better at FS than SS. Some Tight Ends are too big for him to cover. Still, he's all over the place and seems to be in on every play. Has a lot of potential and will keep getting better.

S - James Sanders - Below average. Limited. Has been responsible for some big plays at costly times (see: end of the game, week 1 vs. KC). I don't feel safe with him as our starting Safety and last line of defense. We will most likely re-sign him since we don't have any one to replace him yet, but I hope we draft a Safety in this years draft to eventually take his starting job in a couple years.

S - Rodney Harrison - On his last legs. Old and becoming injury prone. Slow but still solid against the run. Playing more like a LB in recent years. Potential retirement after this year. He only comes back next year if he feels the Pats could win a SB next year with a healthy Brady. Either way, he has 1 year left in him at most. Brings a nasty demeanor to the D that we've missed since his injury.

CB - Ellis Hobbs - Shouldn't be a #1 CB. Has been torched a few too many times this year. He's alright and would look a lot better if the front 7 could put pressure on the QB. Good kick returner.

CB - Deltha ONeal - Up and down, but overall terrible. Gets picked on by opposing QBs. I see why the Bengals cut him now. Needs to be upgraded ASAP. Looks like he's simply going through the motions these days. He's slowed down and receivers are consistently getting a couple steps on him.


Pros: DLine. Young ILBs who are exceeding expectations.
Cons: Secondary. Lack of pass rush. Unbalanced Age. After the 3 vets retire, we are left with a bunch of young, inexperienced players on defense, with no one but AD and the DLine to bring maturity, discipline, and leadership.

Harrison is cooked.....Vrabel like you say has "aged fast" and is not doing even close to what he did last year......Bruschi will most likely retire after THIS season....not sure if that is what you were saying.......Deltha Oneal is this year's Duane Starks.......he is sorry....Hobbs is what he is....and that is a good KR and a complimentary secondary player.....all too often it seems he gets left on an island and torched (one on one......no good).......agree with the rest of your analysis....thanks.....

 

[PatsFan37]

Not quite "at will." I DVR'd the game while I was at church and watched it after coming home and seeing the final score - so I was trying to analyze where the breakdowns might be to lead to a 33-10 score. Colon moved Mike off the line on the second play from scrimmage, so I focused on that battle all game - Colon did blow Mike off the line a couple times, but most of the time Mike was competitive.

The big problem was Vrabel. Playing on the defensive left he was being pushed wide - when Vrabes was playing on the defensive right he held his ground. I can't help but believe Vrabes does have a shoulder problem and it appears to be his right shoulder which he would be using to engage the blocker when setting the edge on the left side.

Reiss has a good analysis of exactly this situation, talking about both Wright and Vrabel.