Tag Archives: Week 11

NFL Week 11 Odds, Predictions and Picks against the spread

John Morgan
November 19, 2017 at 11:00 am ET

The Patriots versus Raiders in Mexico City highlights a decent slate of pro football games in Week 11. Four games in particular stand out, conveniently with one in each time slot.

The day kicks off with a matchup of division leaders, a rarity in the early time slot. The 7-2 Rams have won four straight and bring their top ranked offense (32.9 ppg) to Minnesota. The 7-2 Vikings have won five in a row and are allowing just 18.3 points per game. Minnesota is listed as a 2½ point favorite.

The Patriots and Raiders renew their decades long rivalry in the late afternoon time slot. New England puts a five game winning streak on the line in their second consecutive game on the road at high altitude. The Patriots need a win to keep pace with Pittsburgh for the best record in the AFC, and to maintain their two game lead in the AFC East. 4-5 Oakland has been inconsistent this year but still possess plenty of talent on offense. The Raiders need a victory to keep hopes of winning the AFC West alive.

Sunday night has a good game with Philadelphia at Dallas. The Eagles own the NFL’s best record at 8-1, and have a league-high seven game winning streak. The 5-4 Cowboys need a win to stay in contention for a wild card spot, as nine other NFC teams have at least five wins. With all that has been happening off the field for Jerry Jones, a victory would be sweet. The Jerrah now knows first hand with what it is like to be on the wrong side of Roger Goodell’s erratic system of lies punishment.

Week 11 wraps up with a good game on Monday Night. 5-4 Atlanta travels to Seattle to play the 6-3 Seahawks. The defending NFC champs are in third place, two games behind New Orleans. The Falcons need a win here to not only stay close in the NFC South, but to just keep up as a wild card contender. Seattle is only one game behind the Rams in the NFC West but they have bigger issues. The Seahawks will be without Pro Bowl CB Richard Sherman (ruptured Achilles’ tendon) and Pro Bowl SS Kam Chancellor (neck stinger).

For a full list of announcers and to see what games are being broadcast in your are, please check JP Kirby’s 506 Sports.

Early Games on Fox

5-4 Detroit Lions at 3-6 Chicago Bears
Lions favored by 3; over/under 41 points; money line -150, +130

The Bears continue to find a way to lose close games. Mitch Trubisky has a bright future but right now he’s going through the growing pains of being a rookie quarterback on a bad football team.

Pick: Lions 21, Bears 17
Detroit -3, under 41

 

3-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 4-5 Miami Dolphins
Pick’em; over/under 41½ points; money line -110, -110

How much of a distraction will the Uber allegations against Jameis Winston be for the Bucs? This game comes down to which CB gets burnt more badly, Miami’s Xavien Howard or Tampa’s nickel duo of Javien Elliott and Robert McClain.

Pick: Buccaneers 20, Dolphins 17
Tampa Bay -0, under 41½

 

7-2 Los Angeles Rams at 7-2 Minnesota Vikings
Vikings favored by 2½; over/under 45½ points; money line -135, +115

Most of the talk has been about Jared Goff and the #1 LA offense against a tough Viking defense. The Rams are well balanced, with Aaron Donald leading the way in Wade Phillips’ defense. LA is allowing just 18.0 points per game and has forced 19 turnovers. Keep an eye on Viking WR Adam Thielen. The D-2 receiver has five games with at least 90 yards receiving, and at least five receptions in all nine games.

Pick: Rams 24, Vikings 20
Los Angeles +2½, under 45½

 

4-5 Washington Redskins at 7-2 New Orleans Saints
Saints favored by 7½; over/under 51½ points; money line -380, +310

The Saints are playing well in all three phases of the game. The offense is far more productive with more emphasis on the running game, keeping opposing defenses off balance. Net result is a 7-game winning streak, tied with Philadelphia for the longest in the NFL this season. Make that eight straight over the injury depleted Skins.

Pick: Saints 31, Redskins 21
New Orleans -7½, over 51½

 

4-5 Arizona Cardinals at 3-6 Houston Texans
Texans favored by 1½; over/under 37½ points; money line -125, +105

You want to know why ratings are down? Games where the starting quarterbacks are Tom Savage and Drew Stanton may have something to do with that.

Pick: Cardinals 19, Texans 16
Arizona +1½, under 37½

 

Early Games on CBS

6-3 Kansas City Chiefs at 1-8 New York Giants
Chiefs favored by 10; over/under 46 points; money line -500, +400

Remember when preseason prognosticators were predicting that the Giants would win the division and contend for the Super Bowl? Now Big Blue is a double-digit underdog at home and instead in contention for the number one pick in the 2018 draft.

Pick: Chiefs 34, Giants 10
Kansas City -10, under 46

 

4-5 Baltimore Ravens at 5-4 Green Bay Packers
Ravens favored by 2; over/under 38 points; money line -130, +110

Brett Hundley looked awful in his first two games, but was improved last week. Packer RB Jamaal will need a productive day to counter Baltimore’s blitz-heavy defense on a cold (33) and windy (12-25) day.

Pick: Packers 20, Ravens 17
Green Bay +2, under 38

 

6-3 Jacksonville Jaguars at 0-9 Cleveland Browns
Jaguars favored by 7½; over/under 37 points; money line -380, +310

Jacksonville may be without their top four receivers, so it will be imperative that the Jags get their running game in gear. Jacksonville’s offensive line has performed well this year, with the Jaguars averaging an NFL best 163 yards rushing per game. Cleveland’s run defense has been their lone bright spot. The Browns are allowing an NFL-low 3.1 yards per carry and just 86 yards rushing per game.

Pick: Browns 20, Jaguars 16
Cleveland +7½, under 37

 

Late Afternoon Games

5-4 Buffalo Bills at 3-6 Los Angeles Chargers, 4:05 ET on Fox
Chargers favored by 5½; over/under 41½ points; money line -250, +210

Nathan Peterman gets the start at quarterback over benched Tyrod Taylor. Expecting a rookie QB to win on the road in his first NFL start is a tall order, even though the Chargers have virtually no home field advantage.

Pick: Chargers 27, Bills 16
Los Angeles -5½, over 41½

 

3-6 Cincinnati Bengals at 3-6 Denver Broncos, 4:25 ET on CBS
Broncos favored by 2½; over/under 38½ points; money line -145, +125

Denver has lost five straight and Bronco fans are pointing their fingers at everybody, including John Elway. If the Bengal secondary could not cover Tennessee receivers last week, what will they do at Mile High against Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders?

Pick: Broncos 23, Bengals 20
Denver -2½, over 38½

 

7-2 New England Patriots vs 4-5 Oakland Raiders
4:25 pm ET on CBS, at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City
Patriots favored by 7; over/under 54½ points; money line -320, +270

Jack Tatum. Daryl Stingley. Russ Francis. George Atkinson. Phil Villapiano. Ray Hamilton. Ben Dreith. Stop whining about the Tuck Rule, Raider fans. You scored six points on your final ten possessions of that game, and failed to stop the Patriots on three of their last four possessions.Pats improve to 19-15-1 all time in this series.

Pick: Patriots 31, Raiders 17
New England -7, under 54½

 

Prime Time Games

8-1 Philadelphia Eagles at 5-4 Dallas Cowboys
Sunday night at 8:30 pm ET on NBC
Eagles favored by 5½; over/under 48 points; money line -240, +200

Carson Wentz has thrown 17 touchdown passes against three interceptions in the last five games. Dallas has not been able to contain good quarterbacks and high scoring offenses this year. The Cowboys gave up 35 points in home losses to the Packers and Rams, and 27 points at Atlanta last week.

Pick: Eagles 31, Cowboys 20
Philadelphia -5½, over 48

 

5-4 Atlanta Falcons at 6-3 Seattle Seahawks
Seahawks favored by 3; over/under 45 points; money line -150, +130
Monday night at 8:30 pm ET on espn

The Seahawks are in a difficult situation, playing without CB Richard Sherman and SS Kam Chancellor. Seattle does benefit with the return of FS Earl Thomas, and Atlanta RB Devonta Freeman (concussion) is out. This could easily go either way; it’s tough to pick against Seattle at home. Former Patriot Justin Coleman gets the start at corner in place of Sherman.

Pick: Seahawks 24, Falcons 20
Seattle -3, under 45

 

Bye Week:
7-3 Carolina Panthers
3-7 Indianapolis Colts
4-6 New York Jets
1-9 San Francisco 49ers

 

For a sneak peak at next week’s games, check out NFL Week 12 Early Advanced ‘Look-Ahead Lines: Pats favored by 14.5 vs Miami.

 

NFL Week 11 Early Advanced ‘Look-Ahead’ Betting Lines: Pats favored by 6 vs Raiders

John Morgan
November 11, 2017 at 5:30 pm ET

The Westgate Las Vegas Superbook has published their latest NFL Advanced Betting Lines. These early odds are posted prior to the following week’s games, including this past Thursday’s game between Seattle and Arizona. Also known as Look-Ahead lines, they give the adventurous sports fan an opportunity to wager on games up to twelve days away. Early lines offer a short opportunity to get a jump on odds that could be less favorable after Sunday’s games.

NFL Week 11 looks like it will have plenty of close games. There are no double-digit favorites, and only one game with a spread of more than seven. Home teams are favored in only half of the 14 scheduled games, and nine games have odds of 3½ or fewer points.

The week kicks off with Tennessee at Pittsburgh in Thursday night. In the early Sunday time slot there is what should be a great game between two NFC division leaders. The Rams are at Minnesota in a battle between two teams that have far exceeded expectations thus far in 2017. The winner will be in good position to head into the playoffs with a first round bye. LA has shown that all they needed was to rid themselves of Jeff Fisher, while the Vikings defense has carried the load after losing RB Dalvin Cook to a torn ACL.

In the late afternoon time slot the Patriots and Raiders renew a rivalry dating back to the inception of the American Football League 57 years ago. Players will face the challenge of the high altitude and smog of Mexico City in the 35th meeting between these two franchises. What’s the over/under on the number of times ‘tuck rule’ is mentioned on television that day? Don’t turn hearing that phrase into a drinking game; too many people will die from alcohol poisoning.

Week 11 wraps up with a pair of good prime time NFC games. On Sunday night the Eagles are at Dallas. Philly has a 2½ game lead heading into the week 10 games, and the Cowboys need a win to keep up for a chance of at least a wild card spot. Then on Monday night Atlanta is at Seattle. The two clubs have represented the NFC in the Super Bowl in three of the last four years. Both have underachieved somewhat this year despite their winning records, but still have enough talent to put together a long winning streak in the second half of the season.

NFL Week 11 Early Odds

Thursday Nov 16 at 8:30 pm ET on NBC
Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7)

Sunday Nov 19 at 1:00 pm ET on Fox
Detroit Lions (-2½) at Chicago Bears
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Miami Dolphins (-3½)
Los Angeles Rams at Minnesota Vikings (-3)
Arizona Cardinals (-2) at Houston Texans
Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints (-7)

Sunday Nov 19 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS
Kansas City Chiefs (-9½) at New York Giants
Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Green Bay Packers
Jacksonville Jaguars (-7) at Cleveland Browns

Sunday Nov 19 late afternoon games
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Chargers (-3), 4:00 pm ET on Fox
Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (-2½), 4:30 pm ET on CBS
New England Patriots (-6) at Mexico City Raiders, 4:30 pm ET on CBS

Prime Time Games, 8:30 pm ET
Philadelphia Eagles (-1) at Dallas Cowboys, Sunday November 19 on NBC
Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-2), Monday November 20 on espn

Bye Week
Carolina Panthers
Indianapolis Colts
New York Jets
San Francisco 49ers

 

I like the Jaguars minus-7 against the Browns based on the numbers above. Another option is a three-point teaser two-game teaser. Bring Houston to plus-5 at home versus Arizona, and the Jags to minus-4 at Cleveland. For less risk (but a lower payoff) make it six points. That would give Houston more than a touchdown (+8) and Jacksonville just a minus-1.

Reactions from Northern California to Patriots’ 30-17 Victory Over 49ers

John Morgan
November 21, 2016 at 8:00 pm ET

Some New England fans and certain sports talk radio hosts are whining about the New England Patriots not looking impressive enough in their latest win to improve their conference leading record to 8-2. For another perspective here is a sampling of reactions from Northern California to the Patriots’ 30-17 victory over the 49ers.

 

Reactions from Northern California to Patriots’ 30-17 Victory Over 49ers

San Francisco Chronicle:
Tom Brady, the legend, comes home

“They inspired a lot of kids here in the Bay Area in my time growing up, and I was one of them,” he said.

He mentioned the players he idolized — Joe Montana, Dwight Clark, Steve Young, Tom Rathman — and said that seeing them at halftime during the ceremony honoring Eddie DeBartolo “was a pretty, pretty great day for me.”

He shared some words with Rathman, the 49ers’ running back coach, on the field, and recalled first meeting him.

“He was neighbors with my best friend, and I got to know him a little bit before the draft when he had just started in coaching,” Brady said. “I always loved the way he played and how he spiked the ball after he scored. He was one of my favorite players.

“He autographed my shoe at a store opening when I was probably 12 or 13. He and Roger Craig. It was a pretty great memory.”

Not such a great memory is the one shared by 49ers fans, whose team (along with every other team in the NFL) passed on the hometown boy, drafting quarterback Gio Carmazzi in the third round in 2000 while Brady lasted until the sixth.

What could have happened with Brady on a 49ers team that hadn’t yet fallen into disrepair, that still had Jerry Rice and Terrell Owens and Charlie Garner and a decent defense?

We’ll never know. But 17 seasons later, Brady finally played on the 49ers’ home field. And, as he has been for most of his career, he was brilliant.

 

The Mercury News:
49ers historic, ninth straight loss comes against Tom Brady-led Patriots
Chip Kelly becomes first 49ers coach to lose nine straight

The 49ers matched a dubious franchise record by losing their ninth straight game Sunday, falling 30-17 to the New England Patriots in San Mateo native Tom Brady’s long-awaited homecoming.

Brady threw four touchdown passes, one in each quarter, to key the Patriots (8-2) in his first career action on the home field of his childhood team. He completed 24 of 40 passes for 280 yards with no interceptions and a 114.6 rating.

As rain fell through most of the game, Colin Kaepernick got sacked five times — all in the first half — and fell to 0-5 since replacing Blaine Gabbert as the 49ers starting quarterback.

GRONK WHO: Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski did not travel because of a chest injury. He wasn’t exactly missed.

 

The Sacramento Bee:
On 49ers: Fates of Kaepernick, Kelly, Baalke still being written

After a 26-20 win in Chicago on Dec. 6, then-49ers coach Jim Tomsula and his staff were set to return for the 2016 season. Then, three weeks later, they weren’t.

That serves as a lesson that the futures of those on the current 49ers squad – in grave danger of losing nine consecutive games for the first time since Jimmy Carter was president – probably haven’t been decided yet and instead will be written, rewritten and then scratched out again over the next seven weeks, starting Sunday against the Patriots.

What’s more, the fates of the big three – quarterback Colin Kaepernick, coach Chip Kelly and general manager Trent Baalke – are interwoven. If Kaepernick continues to make progress, that’s probably good news for Kelly, who’s been a Kaepernick advocate from the beginning. If the 49ers keep Kaepernick in 2017, that might not bode as well for Baalke, who has an icy relationship with the quarterback.

 

East Bay Times:
49ers secure wrong kind of historical achievement

The San Francisco 49ers have reached unfamiliar territory, but these aren’t the accolades anyone would want referenced among their list of accomplishments.

After a 30-17 loss to the New England Patriots in Week 11, the Niners have compiled nine straight losses, tying a record set by the 1978 team then went on to finish 2-14 and 4th in the NFC West.

By the time it’s all said and done, this year’s Niners team could compile the worst run defense in history. San Francisco allowed the Patriots to rack up 171 rushing yards and are still on pace to give up 500 points and 3,000 yards on the ground this season.

 

San Francisco Examiner:
Eddie D drowned out by Pats fans during pregame at Levi’s Stadium (VIDEO)

The San Francisco 49ers are honoring former owner Eddie DeBartolo Jr. during the team’s game against the New England Patriots on Sunday.

DeBartolo was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame over the summer and was answering questions from the media pregame.

Then, Tom Brady took the field and the hordes of Pats fans in the crowd shouted their appreciation for the man they call Tommy Terrific.

“That must be Tom Brady,” DeBartolo said before laughing.

 

CSN Bay Area:
Instant Replay: 49ers Fall To Pats, Drop Franchise Tying Ninth In A Row

On Sunday, the 49ers received a lesson from the organization that most closely resembles what DeBartolo accomplished in the 1980s and ‘90s with Walsh and quarterback Joe Montana.

Bill Belichick’s AFC East-leading Patriots improved to 8-2 on the season, while the 49ers drop to 1-9 after opening the season with a 28-0 win over the Los Angeles Rams.

Tom Brady was not his usual sharp self, perhaps due to the weather conditions, but he managed to throw four touchdown passes to lead New England to the victory.

Brady, a 17th-year professional, made his first start against the 49ers in the Bay Area. Brady grew up a fan of the 49ers and was at the NFC Championship game in January 1982 that produced Dwight Clark’s catch that propelled the 49ers to their first Super Bowl appearance. Brady was 4 years old.

Brady completed 24 of 40 attempts for 280 yards with four TDs and no interceptions. His passer rating was 114.6.

 

The Mercury News:
49ers pregame: Torrey Smith’s 89-game streak ends; Rob Gronkowski out for Patriots
Rain is expected for the Patriots first visit to Levi’s Stadium

Smith sustained a shoulder injury last Sunday at Arizona and did not practice Tuesday or Wednesday. He was listed as questionable after being limited in Thursday and Friday practices.

Smith, in his third season with the 49ers, has not missed a game previously in his six-year career. The only active wide receiver with a longer streak of consecutive games played is the Atlanta Falcons Eric Weems, who is more of a return specialist.

 

The Sacramento Bee:
Report card: 49ers flunk second half

Offense: Colin Kaepernick made several nice touch passes, which haven’t exactly been his forte, including two exceptional throws to tight end Vance McDonald. But he and the 49ers deteriorated in the second half, when they punted five times and, as has been the case all season, couldn’t maintain momentum in the third quarter. Grade: C-

Defense: Unlike other running backs this year, 250-pound LeGarrette Blount didn’t trample the 49ers, but he finished with 124 yards. The real issue was Tom Brady, who was good on third downs and excellent in the red zone, where he threw three touchdown passes. After forcing four turnovers last week against Arizona, the 49ers had none against New England. Grade: C-

 

Niners Nation:
Jimmie Ward suffers concussion, Eric Reid suffers reported torn biceps

The San Francisco 49ers lost badly to the New England Patriots on Sunday, but more importantly for now, they have a pair of notable injuries to deal with this week. Cornerback Jimmie Ward suffered a concussion in the fourth quarter, and free safety Eric Reid suffered a right arm injury that Matt Barrows tweeted, “could be serious.”

Ward left the game with a head injury, and is now formally in the NFL’s concussion protocol. The 49ers travel to face the Miami Dolphins in Week 12, and so Ward has until the end of the week to clear through the protocol if he is to play in that game.

 

Tom Brady’s TB Times: Patriots Strike Gold in SF

John Morgan
November 20, 2016 at 9:00 pm ET

The latest post on Tom Brady’s Facebook page celebrates a happy TB12 – and some sad 1849ers – in the aftermath of the New England Patriots 30-17 victory over San Francisco.

The 8-2 Patriots face the Jets next week.

Brady spread the ball around to all of his offensive weapons to confound the Niners, connecting on 24 pass attempts and four touchdowns. Malcolm Mitchell caught four passes on five targets for 98 yards, including a 56-yard touchdown reception. LeGarrette Blount rushed for 124 yards on 19 carries and James White caught all six passes thrown his way for 63 yards and a TD.

In a heavy downpour the Patriots only led by 13-10 at the half, but outscored San Fran 17-7 in the second half. The Patriots sacked Colin Kaepernick five times and limited the maligned quarterback to just 53% completions. The Pats forced the Niners to punt eight times, including six consecutive possessions from the end of the first half until a garbage time score with two minutes left to play.

Next week the Patriots travel to New Jersey to take on the Jets in a late Sunday afternoon game.

NFL Week 11 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread

John Morgan
at 7:00 am ET

There are three significant games between pairs of winning teams in 2016 NFL Week 11. Back in Week 1 the Cowboys settled for field goals three times within the 10-yard line, and blew a fourth quarter lead in a one point loss to the Giants. Since then Dallas has reeled off eight wins in a row, and now possess the best record in the league. In an early Sunday game the Cowboys host Baltimore, who has won each of their games since a Week 8 bye and are now atop the AFC North.

Philadelphia held the league’s best offense to 15 points in a victory over Atlanta last week. In the late afternoon time slot the Eagles get another difficult challenge, traveling to Seattle to play the Seahawks. A third game between two clubs with winning records takes place on Monday night when Houston plays Oakland in Mexico City.

 

NFL Week 11 Early Games on CBS

★★★ 5-5 Tennessee Titans at 4-5 Indianapolis Colts
Sunday November 20 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Spero Dedes and Solomon Wilcots
Colts -3 . . . . over/under 52½ . . . . IND -150, TEN +130
Broadcast in Huntsville AL, Springfield IL, Indiana, central and western Kentucky, and Tennessee.

After lighting up the scoreboard for 47 points against Green Bay last week, the Titans are averaging 34 points per game over the last six weeks. The NFL promotes Andrew Luck as the new face of their league, but right now Marcus Mariota is the third best quarterback in the NFL behind Tom Brady and Matt Ryan.

Prediction: Titans 35, Colts 31
Titans +3 . . . . over 52½ (one unit) . . . . . Tennessee +130

Final Score: Colts 24, Titans 17 x
Titans +3 x . . . . over 52½ x . . . . Titans +130 x

 

★★ 2-7 Jacksonville Jaguars at 5-4 Detroit Lions
Sunday November 20 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Andrew Catalan, Steve Beuerlein and Steve Tasker
Lions -6 . . . . over/under 47½ . . . . DET -260, JAC +220
Broadcast in northern Florida, southern Georgia, Michigan and Green Bay WI.

Jacksonville refuses to run the ball (20.9 rushes per game, fewest in NFL) despite ranking 30th in yards per pass attempt. On top of that the Jaguars are 31st in penalty yards per game (81.4) and last in turnover differential. At home the Lions should have no problem in this game.

Prediction: Lions 31, Jaguars 20
Lions -6 (two units) . . . . over 47½ . . . . . Detroit -260

Final Score: Lions 26, Jaguars 19 ✓
Lions -6 ✓✓ . . . . over 47½ x . . . . Lions -260 ✓

 

★★★★★ 5-4 Baltimore Ravens at 8-1 Dallas Cowboys
Sunday November 20 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts and Evan Washburn
Cowboys -7½ . . . . over/under 44½ . . . . DAL -340, BAL +280
Broadcast in all markets except for Cincinnati, Kansas City, Minneapolis, New York City, and those markets airing one of the three other early CBS games.

The Dallas offense impressed last week at Pittsburgh, but Baltimore’s defense is far superior. The Raven defense ranks first in yardage (282 per game), third downs (31.5%), yards per carry (3.3), rushing yards per game (71) and is third in scoring (17.8 points per game). The Dallas offense is just as good, though some of their numbers have been aided by mediocre defenses (Bears, Niners, Packers, Steelers, Browns). The problem for the Ravens is that their offense has been inept (4.8 yards per play, 30th) and too dependent on Joe Flacco (42.3 pass attempts per game, most in the NFL).

Prediction: Cowboys 24, Ravens 20
Ravens +7½ (one unit) . . . . under 44½ . . . . . Dallas -340

Final Score: Cowboys 27, Ravens 17 ✓
Ravens +7½ x . . . . under 44½ ✓ . . . . Cowboys -340 ✓

 

★★ 4-5 Pittsburgh Steelers at 0-10 Cleveland Browns
Sunday November 20 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Kevin Harlan and Rich Gannon
Steelers -8½ . . . . over/under 43½ . . . . PIT -380, CLE +310
Broadcast in Fargo ND, Ohio (except Cincinnati), Pennsylvania (except Harrisburg and Philadelphia) and West Virginia.

The Steelers have not won a game since October 9, but this week they have the perfect cure for what ails them: a game against the Browns. Pittsburgh has struggled on defense, but Cleveland’s passing game has been impotent thanks to their merry go round at quarterback, which has in turn allowed opponents to stack the box and stop Isaiah Crowell and the running game. On the other side of the ball only the Niners have a worse defense than the Browns. Cleveland ranks last in third down defense and yards per pass, and is 31st in points, yards, rushing yards and red zone D.

That being said I am not expecting a blowout. The Steelers have not looked good away from home, losing their last three on the road – games in which they were favored to win each time. The Browns have actually either been winning or tied at halftime in half of their games this year. DE Cameron Heyward and WR Markus Wheaton were placed on Injured Reserve this week; the loss of Heyward in particular is a blow for their struggling defense.

Prediction: Steelers 27, Browns 20
Browns +8½ . . . . over 43½ . . . . . Pittsburgh -380

Final Score: Steelers 24, Browns 9 ✓
Browns +8½ x . . . . over 43½ x . . . . Steelers -380 ✓

 

NFL Week 11 Early Sunday Games on FOX

★★★ 4-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 7-2 Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday November 20 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston and Laura Okmin
Chiefs -7½ . . . . over/under 44½ . . . . KAN -320, TAM +260
Broadcast in Alabama (except Huntsville and Mobile), Fort Smith AR, Florida (except Jacksonville, Miami and West Palm Beach), northern California, Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Reno NV, Oklahoma, Utah and Wyoming.

The Chiefs have won five straight to quietly take a share of the lead in the AFC West. The Kansas City defense (18.7 points allowed, 7th) has carried the team, thanks to a league best 22 takeaways and +14 turnover differential. However KC has had trouble stopping the run, and Doug Martin is back in the lineup from his hamstring injury for the Bucs. The Chiefs have allowed opponents to rush for 4.7 yards per carry (30th) and 122 yards per game (27th). If CB Marcus Peters (hip pointer) is unable to play that will open things up for WR Mike Evans and the Buc offense – and possibly an upset to end Kansas City’s ten-game home winning streak.

Prediction: Chiefs 24, Buccaneers 17
Buccaneers +7½ . . . . under 44½ . . . . . Tampa Bay +260

Final Score: Buccaneers 19, Chiefs 17 x
Buccaneers +7½ ✓ . . . . under 44½ ✓ . . . . Buccaneers +260 ✓

 

★★ 2-7 Chicago Bears at 6-3 New York Giants
Sunday November 20 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Kevin Burkhardt, John Lynch and Pam Oliver
Giants -7½ . . . . over/under 41½ . . . . NYG -280, CHI +240
Broadcast in New England, DC, Illinois (except southern IL), Indiana (except Indianapolis), New Orleans LA, Grand Rapids MI, Mississippi, eastern New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania (except Pittsburgh), Memphis TN, Austin TX, and Virginia.

The Giants have won four in a row and are receiving a lot of hype from the New York based national media. I am not particularly impressed by Big Blue; they should have lost to Philly and barely beat the Ravens, Rams and an uninspired Bengals team. Today they get an easy home game against a Bears team that is now without RG Kevin Long, NT Will Sutton and wide receivers Alshon Jeffery and Kevin White. Those losses on offense will result in Jay Cutler making a critical error or three that results in a turnover. The Giants’ six wins have been by a combined total of just 21 points, with none by more than seven. I’ll give a slight lean to the Bears plus the points here.

Prediction: Giants 27, Bears 20
Bears +7½ . . . . over 41½ . . . . . New York -280

Final Score: Giants 22, Bears 16 ✓
Bears +7½ ✓ . . . . over 41½ x . . . . Giants -280 ✓

 

★★★ 4-4-1 Arizona Cardinals at 5-4 Minnesota Vikings
Sunday November 20 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Joe Buck, Troy Aikman and Erin Andrews
Vikings -2 . . . . over/under 40½ . . . . MIN -130, ARI +110
Broadcast in Huntsville AL, Mobile AL, Alaska, Arkansas (except Ft Smith), Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Iowa, eastern Kentucky, Louisiana (except New Orleans), Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, Las Vegas NV, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oregon, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas (except Austin, Dallas and Houston), Washington and Wisconsin.

Before the season began these two playoff teams from 2015 were considered to be serious contenders to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. The Vikings have lost four in a row and the only reason Arizona has made its way up to .500 is because they got to play the Niners twice, plus the Jets. Both teams have capable defenses, ranking first and third in points allowed. Minnesota’s offensive line is a mess though, with one injury after another. Meanwhile Carson Palmer can’t hold onto the ball, fumbling it an NFL-high ten times this season.

Prediction: Vikings 23, Cardinals 17
Vikings -2 . . . . under 40½ . . . . . Minnesota -135

Final Score: Vikings 30, Cardinals 24 ✓
Vikings -2 ✓ . . . . under 40½ x . . . . Vikings -135 ✓

 

★★★★ 4-5 Buffalo Bills at 3-5-1 Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday November 20 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Thom Brennaman, Charles Davis and Chris Speilman
Bengals -2½ . . . . over/under 47½ . . . . CIN -135, BUF +115
Broadcast in Kentucky, western New York, Ohio (except Cleveland) and West Virginia.

For only the second time since September the Bengals get to play in Cincinnati; their only victory during that time span was against the Browns. Cincy’s offensive line has struggled, while Jerry Hughes and Lorenzo Alexander have wreaked havoc on opponents with Buffalo’s pass rush. The Bills are 4-1 with a healthy LeSean McCoy, while the Bengals seem to still be in a hangover from last season’s playoff meltdown against Pittsburgh.

Prediction: Bills 27, Bengals 20
Bills +2½ (two units) . . . . under 47½ . . . . . Buffalo +125

Final Score: Bills 16, Bengals 12 ✓
Bills +2½ ✓✓ . . . . under 47½ ✓ . . . . Bills +125 ✓

 

NFL Week 11 Late Game on FOX

★★ 5-4 Miami Dolphins at 4-5 Los Angeles Rams
Sunday November 20 at 4:05 pm ET on FOX; Chris Myers, Ronde Barber and Jennifer Hale
Dolphins -1 . . . . over/under 39½ . . . . MIA -115, LAR +105
Broadcast in southern California, Hawaii, east Florida (Jacksonville, Miami, West Palm Beach), Baltimore, Dallas, Detroit, Cleveland, Houston, Indianapolis, Nashville and Pittsburgh.

Miami will attempt to control the game with Jay Ajayi running the ball, but the Rams have been very effective defending the rush. The Rams finally start rookie quarterback Jared Goff this week. Goff possesses a far superior arm than Case Keenum, but the Dolphins have a very effective pass rush. More downfield passes would open the running game up for Todd Gurley, but that will be a moot point if Goff is being pressured into making mistakes. Miami will be without LT Brandon Albert, which should allow the Rams to get to Ryan Tannehill.

Prediction: Rams 16, Dolphins 13
Rams +1 . . . . under 39½ (two units) . . . . . Rams -105

Final Score: Dolphins 14, Rams 10 x
Rams +1 x . . . . under 39½ ✓✓ . . . . . Rams -105 x

 

NFL Week 11 Late Games on CBS

★★★★ 7-2 New England Patriots at 1-8 San Francisco 49ers
Sunday November 20 at 4:25 pm ET on CBS; Greg Gumbel, Trent Green and Jamie Erdahl
Patriots -11½ . . . . over/under 51 . . . . NWE -600, SFO +450
Broadcast in New England, California (except San Diego), Hawaii, South Dakota, Buffalo, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Mobile, Pittsburgh, Reno, Tampa and West Palm Beach.

On paper the New England offense versus the San Francisco defense is a mismatch of epic proportions, even without Rob Gronkowski. However the Patriot defense struggled to slow down Seattle last week, and the Niners have had times when their offense has been able to move the ball effectively on offense. I thought this would be a good game for New England to utilize Tyler Gaffney, and give LeGarrette Blount a bit of a breather. Gaffney was waived though, so this may instead be a chance for Dion Lewis to shake off the rust and get some reps in his first game of the season.

Prediction: Patriots 35, Forty Niners 17
Patriots -11½ (two units) . . . . over 51 . . . . New England -650

Final Score: Patriots 30, Niners 17 ✓
Patriots -11½ ✓✓ . . . . over 51 x . . . . Patriots -650 ✓

 

★★★★ 5-4 Philadelphia Eagles at 6-2-1 Seattle Seahawks
Sunday November 20 at 4:25 pm ET on CBS; Jim Nantz, Phil Simms and Tracy Wolfson
Seahawks -6½ . . . . over/under 43 . . . . SEA -280, PHI +240
Broadcast in all markets except for Los Angeles and those showing the Patriots-Niners game, above.

It will be interesting to see how Carson Wentz handles the noise in Seattle. Philadelphia has struggled in pass protection since Lane Johnson was suspended; Cliff Avril and Frank Clark should be able to pressure the rookie quarterback into mistakes. Seattle’s defense has improved with the return of Kam Chancellor from a groin injury. Philly can generate more of a pass rush against Seattle than the Patriots did, but their secondary has been prone to blown coverages.

Prediction: Seahawks 24, Eagles 13
Seahawks -6½ (one unit) . . . . under 43 . . . . . Seattle -280

Final Score: Seahawks 26, Eagles 15 ✓
Seahawks -6½ . . . . under 43 ✓ . . . . . Seahawks -280 ✓

 

NFL Week 11 Sunday Night Football on NBC

★★★★ 4-5 Green Bay Packers at 5-3-1 Washington Redskins
Sunday November 20 at 8:30 pm ET on NBC; Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth and Michele Tafoya
Redskins -3 . . . . over/under 48½ . . . . WAS -145, GNB +125
Broadcast in all markets.

RB James Starks is back from his knee injury, but the Packers have problems on their offensive line. Center JC Tretter and RG TJ Lang are out, and though LT David Bakhtiari will play, he is dealing with a knee injury from last week’s game. Green Bay is also suffering from injuries at linebacker and in their secondary, allowing opponents to gain 7.7 yards per pass attempt (30th). Kirk Cousins should have a big game against this suspect pass coverage.

Prediction: Redskins 31, Packers 27
Redskins -3 . . . . over 48½ . . . . . Washington -145

Final Score: Redskins 42, Packers 24 ✓
Redskins -3 ✓ . . . . over 48½ ✓ . . . . . Redskins -145 ✓

 

NFL Week 11 Monday Night Football on BSPN

★★★★ 6-3 Houston Texans ‘at’ 7-2 Oakland Raiders in Mexico City
Monday November 21 at 8:30 pm ET on BSPN; Sean McDonough, Jon Gruden and Lisa Salters
Raiders -6 . . . . over/under 46 . . . . OAK -250, HOU +210
Broadcast in all markets.

Derek Carr (17 TD, 3 INT) has been on fire this season, and Oakland is scoring 27.2 points per game, fifth most in the NFL. Houston got its first road win of the year last week at Jacksonville, by three points – despite a net total of 92 passing yards. Oakland should win this game easily.

Prediction: Raiders 27, Texans 17
Raiders -6 (two units) . . . . under 46 . . . . . Oakland -250

Final Score: Raiders 27, Texans 20 ✓
Raiders -6 ✓✓ . . . . under 46 x . . . . . Raiders -250 ✓

 

NFL Week 11 Byes

6-4 Atlanta Falcons
7-3 Denver Broncos
3-7 New York Jets
4-6 San Diego Chargers

 

NFL Week 11 Thursday Night Football

★★★ 4-5 New Orleans Saints at 3-6 Carolina Panthers
Thursday, November 17 at 8:300 pm ET on NBC; Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth and Michele Tafoya
Panthers -3½ . . . . over/under 53 . . . . CAR -185, NOR +165
Broadcast in all markets.

Week by week the Panthers slowly creep back into the playoff race after a horrendous start to the season.

Prediction: Panthers 31, Saints 27
Panthers -3½ . . . . over 53 . . . . . Carolina -185

Final Score: Panthers 23, Saints 20 ✓
Panthers -3½ x . . . . over 53 x . . . . Panthers -185 ✓

 

NFL Week 11 Parlays and Teasers

3-Team Parlay (one unit):
Lions -6 vs Jaguars ✓
Patriots -11½ at 49ers ✓
Raiders -6 vs Texans ✓

5-Team 6-Point Teaser (two units): ✓✓
Lions -0 vs Jaguars ✓
Patriots -5½ at 49ers ✓
Bills +8½ at Bengals ✓
Buccaneers +13½ at Chiefs ✓
Ravens +13½ at Cowboys ✓

 

Tale of the Tape

Week 10 was a mixed bag at best, expecting the Falcons-Eagles to be a shootout but hitting on a couple other overs (Packers-Titans, Bucs-Bears). There just were not very many games I felt particularly confident about – zero wagers over two units – so I really should have limited the number of games I played.

Week 10 Results:
6-8 Straight Up
4-10 Against the Spread
9-5 Over/Under
2-unit plays: 3-1, +380
1-unit plays: 1-6, -560
3-Game Parlay: 1u, -110
4-Game Teaser: 2u, -220
18 units invested
4-9, -510 on $1980 risk.
-25.8% ROI

Year to Date Results:
82-63-2 Straight Up
78-65-4 Against the Spread
82-65 Over/Under
5-unit plays: 1-0, +500
3-unit plays: 6-5-1, +120
2-unit plays: 24-13, +1990
1-unit plays: 33-20-1, +1090
Parlays: 2-6, +1140
Teasers: 5-3, +2150
71-47-2, +7100 on original $2310 risk.
307.4% ROI on original $2310 bankroll.
33.3% ROI on $21,340 (194 units) of total weekly investments.

4-9, -510 on 18 units (-25.8%) in Week 10.
7-4, +850 on 17 units (+45.5%) in Week 9.
11-2, +3470 on 27 units (+116.8%) in Week 8.
3-6, -480 on 12 units (-36.4%) in Week 7.
9-3-1, +1300 on 17 units (+69.5%) in Week 6.
7-7, +50 on 22 units (+2.1%) in Week 5.
9-2, +1910 on 18 units (+96.5%) in Week 4.
3-9-1, -1280 on 22 units (-58.2%) in Week 3.
9-3, +950 on 20 units (+43.2%) in Week 2.
9-2, +840 on 21 units (+36.4%) in Week 1.

 

The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of the publisher of this website. Neither the author nor this website promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, please call 1-888-ADMIT-IT or 1-888-GA-HELPS.

 

Follow on Twitter @AllThingsPats

 

NFL Week 11 Odds and Television Coverage

John Morgan
November 14, 2016 at 11:00 pm ET

NFL Week 11 Television Coverage and Odds

NFL Week 11 features three games between two teams with winning records. The first of those matchups may include a team you would not have thought of. The Baltimore Ravens are now the only AFC North team with a winning record, and travel to Dallas to face the red-hot Cowboys early on CBS. After that CBS will feature Philadelphia at Seattle as part of their doubleheader in the late time slot. And on Monday Night Football we have what looked like an unimportant game when the schedule was announced last spring. That is no longer the case as the 6-3 Houston Texans will face the 7-2 Oakland Raiders in Mexico City in a clash of AFC division leaders to finish the week eleven schedule.

If some of the pairings between games and networks look odd, that is because there is a lot of cross-flex programming going on this week. The concept is to distribute compelling games to more television markets when one network has an abundance of intriguing games and the other network has dogs. This week the Eagles-Seahawks game was shifted from FOX to CBS, while Buffalo-Cincinnati and Miami-Rams moved from CBS to FOX.

One final programming note. The Patriots’ Week 12 game against the Jets at Exit 16W has been flexed, in the more traditional manner. With Gang Green mired at the bottom of the AFC East with a 3-7 record, the Pats-Jets game has been moved out of the 8:30 pm ET Sunday night national prime time slot. 7-2 Kansas City versus 7-3 Denver is a much better matchup, and will now be the Sunday Night Football game. The Pats-Jets will now kickoff at 4:25 pm at MetLife Stadium. Unless there are further changes the Patriots will have no more night games in the regular season.

 

Thursday Night Football on NBC and NFL Network

4-5 New Orleans Saints at 3-6 Carolina Panthers (-3½, over/under 51½)
Thursday November 17 at 8:25 pm ET on NBC and NFLN; Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth and Michele Tafoya
Broadcast in all markets.

 

Early Sunday Games on CBS

5-5 Tennessee Titans at 4-5 Indianapolis Colts (-3, 52½)
Sunday November 20 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Spero Dedes and Solomon Wilcots
Broadcast in Huntsville AL, southern Illinois, Indiana, central and western Kentucky and Tennessee.

2-7 Jacksonville Jaguars at 5-4 Detroit Lions (-6½, 47)
Sunday November 20 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Andrew Catalan, Steve Beuerlein and Steve Tasker
Broadcast in northern Florida, southern Georgia, Michigan, Toledo OH and Green Bay WI.

5-4 Baltimore Ravens at 8-1 Dallas Cowboys (-7, 44½)
Sunday November 20 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts and Evan Washburn
Broadcast in all markets except for Cincinnati, Kansas City, Minneapolis, New York City, and those markets airing one of the three other early CBS games.

4-5 Pittsburgh Steelers (-9, 49) at 0-10 Cleveland Browns
Sunday November 20 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Kevin Harlan and Rich Gannon
Broadcast in eastern Kentucky, Fargo ND, Ohio (except Cincinnati and Toledo), Pennsylvania (except Harrisburg and Philadelphia) and West Virginia.

 

Early Sunday Games on FOX

4-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 7-2 Kansas City Chiefs (-7½, 44½)
Sunday November 20 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston and Laura Okmin
Broadcast in Fort Smith AR, Florida (except Jacksonville, Miami and West Palm Beach), northern California, Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Reno NV, southern Oregon, Utah and wyoming.

2-7 Chicago Bears at 6-3 New York Giants (-7, 47½)
Sunday November 20 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Kevin Burkhardt, John Lynch and Pam Oliver
Broadcast in all markets not airing one of the four other games on FOX.

4-4-1 Arizona Cardinals at 5-4 Minnesota Vikings (Pick’em, 44½)
Sunday November 20 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Joe Buck, Troy Aikman and Erin Andrews
Broadcast in Alaska, Arizona, Idaho, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, Las Vegas NV, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Dakota, Washington and Wisconsin.

4-5 Buffalo Bills at 3-5-1 Cincinnati Bengals (-4½, 45½)
Sunday November 20 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Thom Brennaman, Charles Davis and Chris Speilman
Broadcast in Kentucky, western New York, Ohio, Altoona PA, Erie PA and West Virginia.

 

Late Sunday Game on FOX

5-4 Miami Dolphins at 4-5 Los Angeles Rams (Pick’em, 40½)
Sunday November 20 at 4:05 pm ET on FOX; Chris Myers, Ronde Barber and Jennifer Hale
Broadcast in southern California, Hawaii, Jacksonville, Miami, West Palm Beach, Indianapolis, Baltimore, Detroit, Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Nashville.

 

Late Sunday Games on CBS

7-2 New England Patriots (-13½, 51½) at 1-8 San Francisco 49ers
Sunday November 20 at 4:25 pm ET on CBS; Greg Gumbel, Trent Green and Jamie Erdahl
Broadcast in New England, northern California and Reno NV.

5-4 Philadelphia Eagles at 6-2-1 Seattle Seahawks (-6, 44½)
Sunday November 20 at 4:25 pm ET on CBS; Jim Nantz, Phil Simms and Tracy Wolfson
Broadcast in all markets except for New England, Reno NV and California (does air in San Diego).

 

Sunday Night Football on NBC

4-5 Green Bay Packers at 5-3-1 Washington Redskins (-3, 50½)
Sunday November 20 at 8:30 pm ET on NBC; Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth and Michele Tafoya
Broadcast in all markets.

 

Monday Night Football on BSPN

6-3 Houston Texans ‘at’ 7-2 Oakland Raiders (-6, 46), in Mexico City
Monday November 21 at 8:30 pm ET on BSPN; Sean McDonough, Jon Gruden and Lisa Salters
Broadcast in all markets.

 

NFL Week 11 Byes

6-4 Atlanta Falcons
7-3 Denver Broncos
3-7 New York Jets
4-6 San Diego Chargers

 

NFL Week 11 Early Advanced ‘Look-Ahead’ Betting Lines: Patriots favored by 14.5

John Morgan
November 10, 2016 at 4:00 pm ET

Earlier this week the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook released their ‘look ahead’ betting lines for NFL Week 11. These early odds are published in advance of the prior week’s games being played. These early lines give some clairvoyant risk takers an opportunity to roll the dice on games that will not take place for another week and a half. There are times when public reaction to the most recent game clouds reality, and for a moment one can exploit the odds on an overrated or underrated team – or be done in by an unforeseen injury.

There are only two home teams in Week 11 that are not favored. Not surprisingly these are the two worst teams in the NFL this season, San Francisco and Cleveland. The Forty Niners have the misfortune of being on New England’s schedule next week. The Patriot 2016 Vindication for Defamegate Tour travels to the City by the Bay Santa Clara for a late afternoon game (4:25 pm ET) at Levi’s Stadium on Sunday November 20.

Normally the Patriots playing in the late time slot is good news for out of town fans who don’t always get to watch the Pats on a local channel on a weekly basis. When the NFL announced their 2016 schedule last spring the Eagles-Seahawks game was cross-flexed from FOX to CBS, to'”bring a potentially under-distributed games to wider audiences”. With that thought in mind – and the disparity in quality of play between the Pats and Niners – this looms as a rather noncompetitive game. I would think that the Philly-Seattle game will be broadcast to most of the nation, while the NE-SF game will likely air only in northern California and New England.

The Week 11 lineup kicks off with – for a welcome change – a decent matchup on Thursday night. New Orleans will be at Carolina in a battle of NFC South rivals. Heading into this weekend’s games the Saints have won four of their last five, while the Panthers have won both of their games since a week seven bye. Rather than being relegated to the NFL Network, this contest will be televised on NBC.

What appears to be the best game of the week will also be broadcast by NBC, with Green Bay at Washington on Sunday night. Here is a look at the full Week 11 schedule with early look ahead lines. The Falcons, Broncos, Jets and Chargers will all be off with a bye.

 

NFL Week 11 Early Advanced ‘Look-Ahead’ Betting Lines

4-4 New Orleans Saints at 3-5 Carolina Panthers (-5)
Thursday November 17 at 8:25 pm ET on NBC

4-5 Tennessee Titans at 4-5 Indianapolis Colts (-4)
Sunday November 20 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS

2-6 Jacksonville Jaguars at 5-4 Detroit Lions (-6)
Sunday November 20 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS

3-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 6-2 Kansas City Chiefs (-8½)
Sunday November 20 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX

2-6 Chicago Bears at 5-3 New York Giants (-5½)
Sunday November 20 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX

3-4-1 Arizona Cardinals at 5-3 Minnesota Vikings (-1)
Sunday November 20 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX

4-5 Buffalo Bills at 3-4-1 Cincinnati Bengals (-4½)
Sunday November 20 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX

4-4 Baltimore Ravens at 7-1 Dallas Cowboys (-6)
Sunday November 20 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS

4-4 Pittsburgh Steelers (-8½) at 0-9 Cleveland Browns
Sunday November 20 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS

4-4 Miami Dolphins at 3-5 Los Angeles Rams (-1½)
Sunday November 20 at 4:05 pm ET on FOX

7-1 New England Patriots (-14½) at 1-7 San Francisco 49ers
Sunday November 20 at 4:25 pm ET on CBS

4-4 Philadelphia Eagles at 5-2-1 Seattle Seahawks (-5½)
Sunday November 20 at 4:25 pm ET on CBS

4-4 Green Bay Packers at 4-3-1 Washington Redskins (-1½)
Sunday November 20 at 8:30 pm ET on NBC

5-3 Houston Texans ‘at’ 7-2 Oakland Raiders (-3), in Mexico City
Monday November 21 at 8:30 pm ET on BSPN

 

 

Back to Week 10, the Thursday night game is not particularly appealing. The Browns have yet to win a game and only one of Baltimore’s four victories was against a club with a winning record. The Ravens may be in for a letdown after defeating arch rival Pittsburgh last week. Cleveland does not have the talent level to compete with better teams, as evidenced by their blowout losses to Philadelphia, Washington, New England, Cincinnati and Dallas. However, the Browns have been very competitive with average teams. Cleveland took Miami to overtime and lost by only five in their first meeting with Baltimore, by two at Tennessee and by three versus the Jets.

Vegas has been losing money on the betting public simply taking the Patriots and Cowboys, and wagering against the Browns and Niners this season. The professional handicappers arbitrarily set a higher line than the expected result when the odds were at 10 and 10½ earlier this week, daring the public to take Ravens minus that many points. The smart players took the Browns and eventually the line adjusted downward due to all the money on that side. By Thursday night the line was all the way down to 7½, which is where it reasonably should be for these two teams.

I placed a small wager (one unit) on Cleveland when the line was 10½ because that line was just too much to pass up – even though I cringed at the the thought of backing a team that has been this bad. I do believe Baltimore will be a bit flat between the short week and last week’s game, which should result in a low scoring game.

Prediction: Ravens 23, Browns 16
Browns +7½ . . . . under 44½ (one unit) . . . . Baltimore -350

 

Bills at Patriots – Stats, Odds and Prediction

John Morgan
November 23, 2015 at 12:00 pm ET

The 9-0 New England Patriots host the 5-4 Buffalo Bills in a battle between the longtime AFC East rivals on Monday night. A victory by the Patriots all but mathematically clinches another division title for New England; it also would keep the Pats in the number one seed in the AFC overall, setting up a crucial game next week at 7-2 Denver. Buffalo currently owns the sixth seed in the AFC playoff picture, but needs a win to stay ahead of six other teams that are no more than one win behind.

 

When: Monday, November 23 at 8:30 pm ET

Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough MA

Television: BSPN; announcers: Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden

Weather: Forecast is for clear skies and temperature of about 29°; zero percent chance of precipitation and a light breeze of about 8 mph.

Odds: The Patriots opened as point favorites a week ago Thursday, prior to last week’s games. Following the Bills sound road victory over the then 5-3 Jets and New England’s narrow last-second win over the Giants, the line dropped down two full points to points in most venues Sunday night. As of Saturday it is a fairly even split at either 7 or 7½ points depending on where you shop. Most places have the over/under at 48, with a few at 48½ after opening at 49½. Typical money lines have the Bills at +280 and the Patriots at -340.

Head-to-Head Series Record: New England leads the series 68-42-1, including a 26-8 playoff victory to determine the AFL East title in 1963. The Patriots have won seven of the last eight, with Buffalo’s sole win in that span coming in a meaningless week 17 game last year. Bill Belichick is 27-4 as head coach of the Patriots against the Bills. The three other losses came in his first game against Buffalo in 2000; the first game of the 2003 season (the infamous ‘they hate their coach’ game, where the Pats went on to win 17 of the next 18 game en route to their second Super Bowl victory); and an early season loss in 2011 when Tom Brady threw four touchdowns and four picks, and Rian Lindell kicked a short field goal as time expired for a 34-31 Buffalo win. The 68 victories are the most against any other franchise for the Patriots, as is the 26-game delta between wins and losses.

 

Here is a look at how the two teams compare statistically; the numbers reflect an average per game (or per play), rather than aggregate totals. Per-game and per-play stats are used rather than gross totals because that makes the rankings more meaningful, considering some NFL teams have played a different number of games, and because they provide a better context in regards to what to expect in a game.

 

New England Patriots Offense versus Buffalo Bills Defense

Scoring: Patriots 33.7 (1st); Bills 23.0 (15th)

Yardage: Patriots 419 (2nd); Bills 350 (16th)

First Downs: Patriots 24.9 (1st); Bills 21.1 (24th)

Yards per Play: Patriots 6.2 (3rd); Bills 5.4 (13th)

Yards per Drive: Patriots 39.2 (2nd); Bills 31.6 (15th)

Points per Drive: Patriots 3.14 (1st); Bills 1.94 (16th)

Drive Success Rate: Patriots .782 (1st); Bills .711 (20th)

Points per Play: Patriots .501 (2nd); Bills .353 (15th)

Touchdowns: Patriots 3.8 (2nd); Bills 2.8 (19th)

Red Zone Touchdowns: Patriots 3.1 (1st); Bills 1.7 (14th)

Red Zone TD Percentage: Patriots 66.7% (2nd); Bills 57.7% (22nd)

Plays per Game: Patriots 67.2 (7th); Bills 65.1 (18th)

Third Down Conversions: Patriots 6.2 (6th); Bills 4.7 (10th)

Third Down Percentage: Patriots 48.7% (1st); Bills 36.8% (12th)

Punts per Score: Patriots 0.5 (1st); Bills 1.1 (19th)

Rushing Yards: Patriots 92.8 (26th); Bills 97.7 (9th)

Yards per Rush: Patriots 3.90 (23rd); Bills 4.07 (18th)

Passing Yards: Patriots 326 (2nd); Bills 252 (18th)

Yards per Pass Attempt: Patriots 8.2 (3rd); Bills 6.6 (5th)

Completion Percentage: Patriots 67.8% (4th); Bills 58.4% (5th)

Passer Rating: Patriots 111.1 (1st); Bills 82.4 (7th)

TD Passes/Picks: Patriots +21 (1st), 24/3; Bills -7 (17th), 17/10

Complete Passes: Patriots 27.9 (3rd); Bills 23.2 (17th)

Incomplete Passes: Patriots 13.2 (17th); Bills 16.4 (2nd)

Quarterback Sacks: Patriots 2.3 (18th); Bills 1.6 (28th)

Sack Yardage Lost: Patriots 12.2 (11th); Bills 8.0 (30th)

 

Buffalo Bills Offense versus New England Patriots Defense

Scoring: Bills 25.7 (7th); Patriots 18.8 (4th)

Yardage: Bills 343 (21st); Patriots 344 (16th)

First Downs: Bills 18.3 (29th); Patriots 20.3 (17th)

Yards per Play: Bills 5.5 (12th); Patriots 5.3 (11th)

Yards per Drive: Bills 28.9 (27th); Patriots 30.7 (12th)

Points per Drive: Bills 2.07 (11th); Patriots 1.67 (9th)

Drive Success Rate: Bills .682 (22nd); Patriots .693 (14th)

Points per Play: Bills .415 (5th); Patriots .289 (4th)

Touchdowns: Bills 3.1 (6th); Patriots 2.1 (7th)

Red Zone Touchdowns: Bills 1.1 (29th); Patriots 1.6 (10th)

Red Zone TD Percentage: Bills 55.6% (16th); Patriots 53.9% (15th)

Plays per Game: Bills 61.9 (26th); Patriots 65.0 (19th)

Third Down Conversions: Bills 4.9 (19th); Patriots 5.8 (25th)

Third Down Percentage: Bills 26.4% (20th); Patriots 41.9% (23rd)

Punts per Score: Bills 1.2 (20th); Patriots 1.3 (10th)

Rushing Yards: Bills 142.3 (2nd); Patriots 88.2 (2nd)

Yards per Rush: Bills 4.77 (5th); Patriots 4.01 (14th)

Passing Yards: Bills 200 (29th); Patriots 256 (23rd)

Yards per Pass Attempt: Bills 7.7 (8th); Patriots 7.0 (12th)

Completion Percentage: Bills 67.8% (6th); Patriots 61.1% (10th)

Passer Rating: Bills 97.2 (8th); Patriots 84.8 (9th)

TD Passes/Picks: Bills +7 (13th), 14/7; Patriots -5 (9th), 14/9

Complete Passes: Bills 19.7 (27th); Patriots 24.2 (26th)

Incomplete Passes: Bills 9.3 (1st); Patriots 15.4 (5th)

Quarterback Sacks: Bills 3.0 (24th); Patriots 3.3 (2nd)

Sack Yardage Lost: Bills 22.0 (28th); Patriots 23.0 (1st)

 

Turnovers

Patriot Giveaways: 0.8 (2nd);  Bills Takeaways: 1.8 (8th)

Bills Giveaways: 1.2 (9th); Patriot Takeaways: 1.4 (16th)

 

Penalties

Penalties: Patriots 7.1 (17th); Bills 10.0 (32nd)

Penalty Yards: Patriots 65.9 (23rd); Bills 89.8 (32nd)

Opponent Penalties: Patriots 7.8 (6th); Bills 7.3 (11th)

Opponent Penalty Yards: Patriots 69.9 (8th); Giants 59.0 (18th)

 

Football Outsiders Statistics and Rankings

Team Efficiency: Weighted DVOA: Patriots 33.5% (1st); Bills 12.2% (10th)

Team Efficiency: Offense DVOA: Patriots 21.8% (1st); Bills 10.7% (7th)

Team Efficiency: Defense DVOA: Patriots -4.1% (9th); Bills 1.3% (16th)

Special Teams DVOA: Patriots 8.6% (1st); Bills 3.0% (9th)

 

Prediction: Patriots 27, Bills 24

An undisciplined play that results in a penalty against Buffalo leads to the deciding points.

 

 

 

NFL Week 11 Previews, Predictions and Picks Against the Spread

John Morgan
November 21, 2015 at 10:00 pm ET

For the second straight week a game involving the Patriots shapes up to be one of, if not the most compelling matchup of the week. As an unintended side effect of the NFL’s quest for parity, for the second week in a row there are just three games between two teams with winning records. Following Thursday’s dud between the two-win Titans and three-win Jaguars, not a single one of the eight early games features a pair of winning teams, and overall for the week eleven of the fourteen games do not match up two winning teams. Only the last three games consist of two teams with records over .500: Green Bay at Minnesota in the late afternoon game on FOX, Cincinnati at Arizona Sunday night, and Buffalo at New England on Monday night. That game will also be a time where New England fans can “welcome” ESPN to Gillette Stadium and let the self-proclaimed world wide leader know exactly how they feel about their “integrity” and “unbiased” reporting.

 

Week 11 is also the first time that the NFL and their broadcast partners were able utilize flex scheduling, and they justifiably took advantage of that opportunity. The Chiefs and Chargers have a combined six wins; their game has been moved out of the Sunday night prime time slot. NBC will now broadcast the Bengals-Cardinals game; those two clubs have a combined record of 15-3. In addition, a key NFC matchup between the Packers and Vikings has been pushed back from an early kickoff to the late afternoon time slot. Previously the only late game scheduled on FOX was Seattle at San Francisco, and that game could be as unwatchable as Thursday’s dud was; neither of those NFC West teams have winning records and the Niners have by far the most impotent offense in the league.

 

Here is a look at all of the NFL week 11 games, with the odds as of Saturday night (and early odds, from a week ago Thursday), kickoff times, television information and each team’s records. FOX has finally opted to not jam the Cowboys down everyone’s throats, despite the return of Tony Romo this week. Ironically this is a week when the New England area might not mind seeing Dallas, since they are playing AFC rival Miami. CBS in Boston will air Denver at Chicago while the rest of New England will get the Jets-Texans game early. FOX has the doubleheader this week and most of the country will get the Packers-Vikings in the late afternoon time slot.

 

4-5 Washington Redskins at 9-0 Carolina Panthers, early game on FOX; Thom Brennaman, Charles Davis

Broadcast in all markets except Arkansas, Florida (except Jacksonville), southern Illinois, Kansas, Maryland, Missouri, Oklahoma, Pennsylania, Texas, Atlanta GA, Chicago IL, Cleveland OH and Eugene OR

Panthers -7 (opened at -8½) . . . . over/under 44½ . . . . Car -340, Was +280

It is amazing to think that a year ago at this time Carolina lost their sixth straight game to drop to 3-8-1, and the question was when and not if owner Jerry Richardson would fire head coach Ron Rivera. CB Peanut Tillman will miss another game with a knee injury, but that should be of little consequence for the Panthers. Carolina would be scary good this year; imagine how they would look if WR Kelvin Benjamin didn’t miss the entire year due to a pre-season torn ACL.

Prediction: Panthers 27, Redskins 17

Pick: Panthers -7 . . . . under 44½ . . . . Panthers -340

 

4-5 Oakland Raiders at 2-7 Detroit Lions, early game on CBS; Andrew Catalon, Steve Tasker

Broadcast in northern California, Michigan, Oregon and Toledo OH

Pick’em (opened w/Raiders -1½) . . . . over/under 50 . . . . Oak -110, Det -110

RB Joique Bell  is questionable with a shoulder injury, which is good news for Detroit. Bell has carried the rock 44 times for the Lions this year; 30 of those rushes are for one yard or less while only ten are for five yards or more.

Prediction: Raiders 31, Lions 24

Pick: Raiders pk . . . . over 49½ . . . . Raiders -110

 

2-7 Dallas Cowboys at 4-5 Miami Dolphins, early game on FOX; Kevin Burkhardt, John Lynch

Broadcast in parts of Arkansas, Florida (Gainesville, Miami, West Palm Beach), Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas (except Houston), Cedar Rapids IA and Memphis TN

Cowboys -1 (opened w/Miami -1) . . . . over/under 46½ . . . . Dal -120, Mia +100

Ah yes, the much anticipated meeting between this year’s most dysfunctional teams. Dallas gets QB Tony Romo back, but I would expect it to take another week to shake of the rust and get the timing down. The high humidity in south Florida won’t help the visiting team either.

Prediction: Dolphins 23, Cowboys 21

Pick: Dolphins +1 . . . . under 46½ . . . . Dolphins +100

 

4-5 Indianapolis Colts at 6-3 Atlanta Falcons, early game on CBS; Greg Gumbel, Trent Green

Broadcast in Alabama, northern Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Louisiana (except Shreveport), North Carolina (except Charlotte), South Carolina, Louisville KY, Tupelo MS and Richmond VA

Falcons -5½ (opened at -4) . . . . over/under 47½ . . . . Atl -240, Ind +200

Indy’s season of cosmic retribution continues. You know things are bad when you are trying to talk Jason Campbell out of retirement to suit up for your team. You know things are worse when he turns down a chance for an easy paycheck to hold a clipboard.

Prediction: Falcons 27, Colts 24

Pick: Colts +5½ . . . . over 47½ . . . . Colts +200

 

4-5 St. Louis Rams at 2-7 Baltimore Ravens, early game on FOX; Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston

Broadcast in southern Illinois, Maryland, Missouri, Cleveland OH and Pittsburgh PA

Ravens -2½ (opened w/Rams -1½) . . . . over/under 41½ . . . . Bal -140, StL +120

Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh has resorted to handing out ‘effort’ stickers to the players on his two-win team. As one dimensional as the Rams offense is, it is going to take more than an elementary school teacher gimmick to stop Rams RB Todd Gurley.

Prediction: Rams 23, Ravens 17

Pick: Rams +2½ . . . . under 41½ . . . . Rams +120

 

5-4 New York Jets at 4-5 Houston Texans, early game on CBS; Kevin Harlan, Rich Gannon

Broadcast in New England (except Boston), New York, northeast Pennsylvania, Texas (except Dallas), Fort Myers FL and Miami FL

Jets -3½ (opened at -3) . . . . over/under 40½ . . . . NYJ -170, Hou +150

The Jets’ injury report is much shorter and less severe than it has been in the last few games; that is bad news for a Houston team starting a third string quarterback and backup running back.

Prediction: Jets 20, Texans 17

Pick: Texans +3½ . . . . under 40½ . . . . Texans +150

 

4-5 Tampa Bay Bucs at 4-5 Philadelphia Eagles, early game on FOX; Dick Stockton, David Diehl

Broadcast in Florida (except Gainesville, Miami and West Palm) and Pennsylvania (except Pittsburgh)

Eagles -5½ (opened at -8) . . . . over/under 44½ . . . . Phi -250, TB +210

Lovie Smith’s Tampa-2 defense has no answer for quick slants and play action passes, other than taking uncalled for personal fouls and inexcusable roughing the passer penalties. Chip Kelly’s offense matches up very well against the Buc defense.

Prediction: Eagles 27, Bucs 23

Pick: Bucs +5½ . . . . over 44½ . . . . Eagles -250

 

7-2 Denver Broncos at 4-5 Chicago Bears, early game on CBS; Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts

Broadcast in Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky (except Louisville), Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota, Ohio (except Toledo), Oklahoma, Pennsylvania (except Philadelphia and Scranton), South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, Virginia (except Richmond), Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming, Boston MA and Las Vegas NV

Broncos -1 (opened at -6) . . . . over/under 41 . . . . Den -120, Chi +100

While the focus is on Denver starting a backup quarterback, the harsh reality is that Brock Osweiler is a better option than Peyton Manning for the Broncos. Perhaps that is why Manning reportedly not helping Osweiler in meeting rooms or on the practice field. The fact remains that Denver has one of the NFL’s best defenses, while the Bears are giving up 26.0 points per game. WR Alshon Jeffery being held out of practices and listed as questionable with groin and shoulder injuries doesn’t help Chicago’s chances.

Prediction: Broncos 23, Bears 20

Pick: Broncos -1 . . . . over 41 . . . . Bears +100

 

4-5 Kansas City Chiefs at 2-7 San Diego Chargers, late game on CBS; Spero Dedes, Solomon Wilcots

Broadcast in southern California, DC, Kansas, Maryland, Missouri, Nebraska, Miami FL, Tampa FL, Philadelphia PA, Charlotte SC and Dallas TX

Chiefs -3 (opened at -2½) . . . . over/under 45 . . . . KC -170, SD +150

Kansas City’s front seven is very good, and should have a field day against the sieve that is San Diego’s offensive line. After a really difficult schedule to start the season, KC has crawled back into the playoff race. Before jumping on the Chiefs’ bandwagon though, take a look at their last three wins: two against backup quarterbacks, and one against the lowly Lions.

Prediction: Chiefs 27, Chargers 23

Pick: Chiefs -3 . . . . over 45 . . . . Chiefs -170

 

3-6 San Francisco 49ers at 4-5 Seattle Seahawks, late game on FOX; Chris Myers, Ronde Barber

Broadcast in northern California, Idaho, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Anchorage AK and Reno NV

Seahawks -13 (opened at -11) . . . . over/under 39½ . . . . Sea -1000, SF +700

Is Seattle turning into San Francisco, one year later? A couple years ago these two were the very best teams in the NFL. The Niners regressed from three consecutive years of advancing to at least the conference championship game to an 8-8 2014 season, before bottoming out in 2015. The Seahawks won 42 total games from 2012-14, making it to the Super Bowl twice and winning it all once; they now have a losing record, and both their offense and defense has regressed markedly. That trend may continue next year, but at home against this anemic 49er team Seattle will at least temporarily get its mojo back – though with this weakened Seattle team, the Niners do have a chance.

Prediction: Seahawks 23, Niners 13

Pick: Niners +13 . . . . under 39½ . . . . Niners +700

 

6-3 Green Bay Packers at 7-2 Minnesota Vikings, late game on FOX; Joe Buck, Troy Aikman

Broadcast in all markets except northern California, Idaho, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Anchorage AK, San Diego CA and Reno NV

Vikings -1 (opened w/GB -3) . . . . over/under 44½ . . . . Min -120, GB +100

In case you missed it Green Bay has apparently been playing fast and loose with the injury report, just one more item in a long list of stories that would be headline news if it involved the Patriots. Aaron Rodgers has apparently been dealing with a shoulder injury, and after last week’s loss to Detroit is also dealing with a leg injury. Though I am still skeptical about Minnesota based on their schedule, the reality is that they are a well balanced and fundamentally sound team. The Packers have not performed well the last three weeks and now find themselves on the road against a team they are a game behind in the standings. Just a hunch, they get it together here.

Prediction: Packers 24, Vikings 23

Pick: Packers +1 . . . . over 44½ . . . . Packers +100

 

8-1 Cincinnati Bengals at 7-2 Arizona Cardinals, Sunday night on NBC; Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth

Broadcast in all markets

Cardinals -4½ (opened at -3) . . . . over/under 48½ . . . . Ari -220, Cin +190

The Bengals and Cardinals were arguably the two worst franchises in the NFL when Carson Palmer forced his way out of Cincy five years ago, and apparently the Arizona quarterback still holds a bit of a grudge. The Bengals are in a bit of a tough spot here; they still haven’t proven they can beat a good time in prime time, and they are making a long road trip on a short week to heal and prepare.

Prediction: Cardinals 24, Bengals 20

Pick: Bengals +4½ . . . . under 48½ . . . . Cin +190

 

5-4 Buffalo Bills at 9-0 New England Patriots, Monday night on ESPN; Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden

Broadcast in all markets

Patriots -7½ (opened at -9½) . . . . over/under 48½ . . . . NWE -340, Buf +280

In their week two victory at Buffalo, 36 of New England’s plays were either pass attempts to, or runs by Dion Lewis or Julian Edelman. Without those two on the field this week’s game plan will be a severe challenge for Bill Belichick and his staff, and by default will need to be dramatically different.

Prediction: Patriots 27, Bills 24

Pick: Bills +7½ . . . . over 48½ . . . . Bills +280

 

2-7 2-8 Tennessee Titans at 3-6 4-6 Jacksonville Jaguars, Thursday November 19
Jags -2½ (opened -1½) . . . . over/under 42 . . . . Jags -145, Titans +125
Final Score: Jaguars 19, Titans 13

With their second win in a row and third in their last four games, Jacksonville is suddenly breathing down Indy’s neck in the AFC South. That week four overtime loss when Jason Myers missed two late field goals is looming large now.

 

For comparison’s sake, here is a look at what the prop bets were for the week eleven games from back when the NFL schedule was announced in April. Some are right on or only off by a half a point; the oddsmakers were apparently a bit scared off by the the deflategate witch hunt in regards to the Patriots at that point in time. The Colts, Niners and Chargers stand out as teams that have precipitously dropped off from preseason expectations, while the Raiders and Jets are two that have vastly improved.

Titans at Jaguars (-1½)
Colts (-2) at Falcons
Redskins at Panthers (-5)
Bengals at Cardinals (-3)
49ers at Seahawks (-5½)
Jets at Texans (-5)
Chiefs at Chargers (-2½)
Cowboys at Dolphins (-1)
Rams at Ravens (-3½)
Buccaneers at Eagles (-8½)
Broncos (-2½) at Bears
Raiders at Lions (-8½)
Packers (-3) at Vikings
Bills at Patriots (-5½)

 

November 21 is a date with an eclectic mix of NFL birthdays. Hall of Fame QB Sid Luckman was born on this day in 1916. He was the first pro quarterback to successfully grasp the concept of the T-Formation, and for many years after he retired the debate as to whom was the GOAT was between Luckman and Sammy Baugh. Luckman won four NFL championships as the Bears’ quarterback, and was under center for the famous 73-0 beatdown over Washington. Luckman had two other amazing games in 1943. On November 14 he set an NFL record that has still yet to be broken, despite the drastic changes in the passing game: Luckman threw for seven touchdowns on the road in his native home town as the Bears crushed the Giants 56-7. A month later Luckman threw touchdown passes of 31, 36, 66, 29, and 16 yards, compiling 276 yards passing on just 15 completions, as Chicago beat Washington 41-21 for their third championship in four years. Although the passing game is dramatically different today, some of his numbers have somehow managed to stand the test of time. His career 8.4 yards per pass attempt still ranks as second best in NFL history, and his 7.9 percent of passes thrown for touchdowns remains the best in the history of pro football.

Besides Luckman, Green Bay Hall of Fame center Jim Ringo was born today in 1931; HoF QB Troy Aikman turns 49; HoF DE Michael Strahan turns 44; and Honor Jackson, who played safety for the Patriots in the early 70s turns 67 today.

 

 

NFL Week 11 Early Advanced Lines: Pats favored by 9.5 vs Bills

John Morgan
November 15, 2015 at 9:30 am ET

Prior to that disaster on Thursday night when color blind fans could not tell the difference between the Jets and the Bills (and the rest of us got seasick watching those wretched uniforms), the Westgate in Las Vegas published ‘look ahead’ lines for NFL week eleven. A week from Monday the New England Patriots will host Rex’s Clown Show, aka the Buffalo Bills; the Pats have been installed as early 9½ point favorites.

 

For the second straight week a game involving the Patriots shapes up to be one of, if not the most compelling matchup of the week. This is one of only three week 11 games (Packers-Vikings, Bengals-Cardinals) between two teams with winning records. It will also be a time where New England fans can “welcome” ESPN to Gillette Stadium and let them know how they feel about their integrity and unbiased reporting.

 

Week 11 is also the first time that the NFL and their broadcast partners can utilize flex scheduling, and they justifiably took advantage of that opportunity. The Chiefs and Chargers have a combined record of 5-12; their game has been moved out of the Sunday night prime time slot. NBC will now broadcast Cincinnati at Arizona; those two clubs have a combined record of 14-2. In addition a key NFC matchup between the Packers and Vikings has been pushed back to the late afternoon time slot. Previously the only late game on FOX, Seattle at San Francisco was looking like a dud; neither of those teams have winning records and the Niners have by far the most impotent offense in the league.

 

Happy Birthday to Leon Gray, who would have turned 64 today. The left tackle lined up alongside John Hannah to form what may have been the most formidable left side of an offensive line in NFL history. Behind those two the Patriots set an NFL record in 1978 with 3,165 yards rushing, and he was a vital part of those great 1976 and 1978 teams that should have (if not for Ben Dreith) and could have (if not for the cheapness of Billy Sullivan) been NFL champions. Gray was a four time Pro Bowler and three time All Pro. Sadly he passed away in 2001 just days before his 50th birthday; in 2013 his family filed a wrongful death lawsuit against the NFL. Number 70 was was named to the Patriots’ All-Decade team for the 1970s, and was a finalist for the Patriots Hall of Fame in 2013 and 2015.

 

Here is a look at all of the NFL week 11 games, with the early odds, times, television information and each team’s current (prior to Sunday’s week 10 games) won-loss records.

 

2-6 Tennessee Titans at 2-6 Jacksonville Jaguars (-1½)

Thursday November 19, 8:25 pm on NFLN

 

3-5 Washington Redskins at 8-0 Carolina Panthers (-8½)

Sunday November 22 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX

 

4-4 Oakland Raiders (-1½) at 1-7 Detroit Lions

Sunday November 22 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS

 

2-6 Dallas Cowboys at 3-5 Miami Dolphins

No early line, pending status of Dallas QB Tony Romo

Sunday November 22 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX

 

4-5 Indianapolis Colts at 6-3 Atlanta Falcons

No early line, pending status of Indy QB Andrew Luck

Sunday November 22 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS

 

4-4 St. Louis Rams (-1½) at 2-6 Baltimore Ravens

Sunday November 22 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX

 

5-4 New York Jets (-3) at 3-5 Houston Texans

Sunday November 22 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS

 

3-5 Tampa Bay Bucs at 4-4 Philadelphia Eagles (-8)

Sunday November 22 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX

 

7-1 Denver Broncos (-6) at 3-5 Chicago Bears

Sunday November 22 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS

 

3-5 Kansas City Chiefs (-2½) at 2-7 San Diego Chargers

Sunday November 22 at 8:30 4:05 pm ET on NBC CBS

 

3-6 San Francisco 49ers at 4-4 Seattle Seahawks (-11)

Sunday November 22 at 4:25 pm ET on FOX

 

6-2 Green Bay Packers (-3) at 6-2 Minnesota Vikings

Sunday November 22 at 1:00 4:25 pm ET on FOX

 

8-0 Cincinnati Bengals at 6-2 Arizona Cardinals (-3)

Sunday November 22 at 4:05 8:30 pm ET on CBS NBC

 

5-4 Buffalo Bills at 8-0 New England Patriots (-9½)

Monday November 23 at 8:30 pm ET on ESPN

 

For grins, here is a look at what the prop bets were for the week eleven games from back when the NFL schedule was announced in April. Some are right on or only off by a half a point; the oddsmakers were a bit scared off by the the deflategate witch hunt in regards to the Patriots at that point in time. Baltimore, San Francisco and San Diego stand out as teams that have precipitously dropped off from preseason expectations.

Titans at Jaguars (-1½)
Colts (-2) at Falcons
Redskins at Panthers (-5)
Bengals at Cardinals (-3)
49ers at Seahawks (-5½)
Jets at Texans (-5)
Chiefs at Chargers (-2½)
Cowboys at Dolphins (-1)
Rams at Ravens (-3½)
Buccaneers at Eagles (-8½)
Broncos (-2½) at Bears
Raiders at Lions (-8½)
Packers (-3) at Vikings
Bills at Patriots (-5½)