Bills at Patriots – Stats, Odds and Prediction
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Posted Under: Patriots Stat Breakdowns
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The 9-0 New England Patriots host the 5-4 Buffalo Bills in a battle between the longtime AFC East rivals on Monday night. A victory by the Patriots all but mathematically clinches another division title for New England; it also would keep the Pats in the number one seed in the AFC overall, setting up a crucial game next week at 7-2 Denver. Buffalo currently owns the sixth seed in the AFC playoff picture, but needs a win to stay ahead of six other teams that are no more than one win behind.
When: Monday, November 23 at 8:30 pm ET
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough MA
Television: BSPN; announcers: Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden
Weather: Forecast is for clear skies and temperature of about 29°; zero percent chance of precipitation and a light breeze of about 8 mph.
Odds: The Patriots opened as 9½ point favorites a week ago Thursday, prior to last week’s games. Following the Bills sound road victory over the then 5-3 Jets and New England’s narrow last-second win over the Giants, the line dropped down two full points to 7½ points in most venues Sunday night. As of Saturday it is a fairly even split at either 7 or 7½ points depending on where you shop. Most places have the over/under at 48, with a few at 48½ after opening at 49½. Typical money lines have the Bills at +280 and the Patriots at -340.
Head-to-Head Series Record: New England leads the series 68-42-1, including a 26-8 playoff victory to determine the AFL East title in 1963. The Patriots have won seven of the last eight, with Buffalo’s sole win in that span coming in a meaningless week 17 game last year. Bill Belichick is 27-4 as head coach of the Patriots against the Bills. The three other losses came in his first game against Buffalo in 2000; the first game of the 2003 season (the infamous ‘they hate their coach’ game, where the Pats went on to win 17 of the next 18 game en route to their second Super Bowl victory); and an early season loss in 2011 when Tom Brady threw four touchdowns and four picks, and Rian Lindell kicked a short field goal as time expired for a 34-31 Buffalo win. The 68 victories are the most against any other franchise for the Patriots, as is the 26-game delta between wins and losses.
Here is a look at how the two teams compare statistically; the numbers reflect an average per game (or per play), rather than aggregate totals. Per-game and per-play stats are used rather than gross totals because that makes the rankings more meaningful, considering some NFL teams have played a different number of games, and because they provide a better context in regards to what to expect in a game.
New England Patriots Offense versus Buffalo Bills Defense
Scoring: Patriots 33.7 (1st); Bills 23.0 (15th)
Yardage: Patriots 419 (2nd); Bills 350 (16th)
First Downs: Patriots 24.9 (1st); Bills 21.1 (24th)
Yards per Play: Patriots 6.2 (3rd); Bills 5.4 (13th)
Yards per Drive: Patriots 39.2 (2nd); Bills 31.6 (15th)
Points per Drive: Patriots 3.14 (1st); Bills 1.94 (16th)
Drive Success Rate: Patriots .782 (1st); Bills .711 (20th)
Points per Play: Patriots .501 (2nd); Bills .353 (15th)
Touchdowns: Patriots 3.8 (2nd); Bills 2.8 (19th)
Red Zone Touchdowns: Patriots 3.1 (1st); Bills 1.7 (14th)
Red Zone TD Percentage: Patriots 66.7% (2nd); Bills 57.7% (22nd)
Plays per Game: Patriots 67.2 (7th); Bills 65.1 (18th)
Third Down Conversions: Patriots 6.2 (6th); Bills 4.7 (10th)
Third Down Percentage: Patriots 48.7% (1st); Bills 36.8% (12th)
Punts per Score: Patriots 0.5 (1st); Bills 1.1 (19th)
Rushing Yards: Patriots 92.8 (26th); Bills 97.7 (9th)
Yards per Rush: Patriots 3.90 (23rd); Bills 4.07 (18th)
Passing Yards: Patriots 326 (2nd); Bills 252 (18th)
Yards per Pass Attempt: Patriots 8.2 (3rd); Bills 6.6 (5th)
Completion Percentage: Patriots 67.8% (4th); Bills 58.4% (5th)
Passer Rating: Patriots 111.1 (1st); Bills 82.4 (7th)
TD Passes/Picks: Patriots +21 (1st), 24/3; Bills -7 (17th), 17/10
Complete Passes: Patriots 27.9 (3rd); Bills 23.2 (17th)
Incomplete Passes: Patriots 13.2 (17th); Bills 16.4 (2nd)
Quarterback Sacks: Patriots 2.3 (18th); Bills 1.6 (28th)
Sack Yardage Lost: Patriots 12.2 (11th); Bills 8.0 (30th)
Buffalo Bills Offense versus New England Patriots Defense
Scoring: Bills 25.7 (7th); Patriots 18.8 (4th)
Yardage: Bills 343 (21st); Patriots 344 (16th)
First Downs: Bills 18.3 (29th); Patriots 20.3 (17th)
Yards per Play: Bills 5.5 (12th); Patriots 5.3 (11th)
Yards per Drive: Bills 28.9 (27th); Patriots 30.7 (12th)
Points per Drive: Bills 2.07 (11th); Patriots 1.67 (9th)
Drive Success Rate: Bills .682 (22nd); Patriots .693 (14th)
Points per Play: Bills .415 (5th); Patriots .289 (4th)
Touchdowns: Bills 3.1 (6th); Patriots 2.1 (7th)
Red Zone Touchdowns: Bills 1.1 (29th); Patriots 1.6 (10th)
Red Zone TD Percentage: Bills 55.6% (16th); Patriots 53.9% (15th)
Plays per Game: Bills 61.9 (26th); Patriots 65.0 (19th)
Third Down Conversions: Bills 4.9 (19th); Patriots 5.8 (25th)
Third Down Percentage: Bills 26.4% (20th); Patriots 41.9% (23rd)
Punts per Score: Bills 1.2 (20th); Patriots 1.3 (10th)
Rushing Yards: Bills 142.3 (2nd); Patriots 88.2 (2nd)
Yards per Rush: Bills 4.77 (5th); Patriots 4.01 (14th)
Passing Yards: Bills 200 (29th); Patriots 256 (23rd)
Yards per Pass Attempt: Bills 7.7 (8th); Patriots 7.0 (12th)
Completion Percentage: Bills 67.8% (6th); Patriots 61.1% (10th)
Passer Rating: Bills 97.2 (8th); Patriots 84.8 (9th)
TD Passes/Picks: Bills +7 (13th), 14/7; Patriots -5 (9th), 14/9
Complete Passes: Bills 19.7 (27th); Patriots 24.2 (26th)
Incomplete Passes: Bills 9.3 (1st); Patriots 15.4 (5th)
Quarterback Sacks: Bills 3.0 (24th); Patriots 3.3 (2nd)
Sack Yardage Lost: Bills 22.0 (28th); Patriots 23.0 (1st)
Turnovers
Patriot Giveaways: 0.8 (2nd); Bills Takeaways: 1.8 (8th)
Bills Giveaways: 1.2 (9th); Patriot Takeaways: 1.4 (16th)
Penalties
Penalties: Patriots 7.1 (17th); Bills 10.0 (32nd)
Penalty Yards: Patriots 65.9 (23rd); Bills 89.8 (32nd)
Opponent Penalties: Patriots 7.8 (6th); Bills 7.3 (11th)
Opponent Penalty Yards: Patriots 69.9 (8th); Giants 59.0 (18th)
Football Outsiders Statistics and Rankings
Team Efficiency: Weighted DVOA: Patriots 33.5% (1st); Bills 12.2% (10th)
Team Efficiency: Offense DVOA: Patriots 21.8% (1st); Bills 10.7% (7th)
Team Efficiency: Defense DVOA: Patriots -4.1% (9th); Bills 1.3% (16th)
Special Teams DVOA: Patriots 8.6% (1st); Bills 3.0% (9th)
Prediction: Patriots 27, Bills 24
An undisciplined play that results in a penalty against Buffalo leads to the deciding points.
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