NFL Week 11 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread
There are three significant games between pairs of winning teams in 2016 NFL Week 11. Back in Week 1 the Cowboys settled for field goals three times within the 10-yard line, and blew a fourth quarter lead in a one point loss to the Giants. Since then Dallas has reeled off eight wins in a row, and now possess the best record in the league. In an early Sunday game the Cowboys host Baltimore, who has won each of their games since a Week 8 bye and are now atop the AFC North.
Philadelphia held the league’s best offense to 15 points in a victory over Atlanta last week. In the late afternoon time slot the Eagles get another difficult challenge, traveling to Seattle to play the Seahawks. A third game between two clubs with winning records takes place on Monday night when Houston plays Oakland in Mexico City.
NFL Week 11 Early Games on CBS
★★★ 5-5 Tennessee Titans at 4-5 Indianapolis Colts
Sunday November 20 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Spero Dedes and Solomon Wilcots
Colts -3 . . . . over/under 52½ . . . . IND -150, TEN +130
Broadcast in Huntsville AL, Springfield IL, Indiana, central and western Kentucky, and Tennessee.
After lighting up the scoreboard for 47 points against Green Bay last week, the Titans are averaging 34 points per game over the last six weeks. The NFL promotes Andrew Luck as the new face of their league, but right now Marcus Mariota is the third best quarterback in the NFL behind Tom Brady and Matt Ryan.
Prediction: Titans 35, Colts 31
Titans +3 . . . . over 52½ (one unit) . . . . . Tennessee +130
Final Score: Colts 24, Titans 17 x
Titans +3 x . . . . over 52½ x . . . . Titans +130 x
★★ 2-7 Jacksonville Jaguars at 5-4 Detroit Lions
Sunday November 20 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Andrew Catalan, Steve Beuerlein and Steve Tasker
Lions -6 . . . . over/under 47½ . . . . DET -260, JAC +220
Broadcast in northern Florida, southern Georgia, Michigan and Green Bay WI.
Jacksonville refuses to run the ball (20.9 rushes per game, fewest in NFL) despite ranking 30th in yards per pass attempt. On top of that the Jaguars are 31st in penalty yards per game (81.4) and last in turnover differential. At home the Lions should have no problem in this game.
Prediction: Lions 31, Jaguars 20
Lions -6 (two units) . . . . over 47½ . . . . . Detroit -260
Final Score: Lions 26, Jaguars 19 ✓
Lions -6 ✓✓ . . . . over 47½ x . . . . Lions -260 ✓
★★★★★ 5-4 Baltimore Ravens at 8-1 Dallas Cowboys
Sunday November 20 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts and Evan Washburn
Cowboys -7½ . . . . over/under 44½ . . . . DAL -340, BAL +280
Broadcast in all markets except for Cincinnati, Kansas City, Minneapolis, New York City, and those markets airing one of the three other early CBS games.
The Dallas offense impressed last week at Pittsburgh, but Baltimore’s defense is far superior. The Raven defense ranks first in yardage (282 per game), third downs (31.5%), yards per carry (3.3), rushing yards per game (71) and is third in scoring (17.8 points per game). The Dallas offense is just as good, though some of their numbers have been aided by mediocre defenses (Bears, Niners, Packers, Steelers, Browns). The problem for the Ravens is that their offense has been inept (4.8 yards per play, 30th) and too dependent on Joe Flacco (42.3 pass attempts per game, most in the NFL).
Prediction: Cowboys 24, Ravens 20
Ravens +7½ (one unit) . . . . under 44½ . . . . . Dallas -340
Final Score: Cowboys 27, Ravens 17 ✓
Ravens +7½ x . . . . under 44½ ✓ . . . . Cowboys -340 ✓
★★ 4-5 Pittsburgh Steelers at 0-10 Cleveland Browns
Sunday November 20 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Kevin Harlan and Rich Gannon
Steelers -8½ . . . . over/under 43½ . . . . PIT -380, CLE +310
Broadcast in Fargo ND, Ohio (except Cincinnati), Pennsylvania (except Harrisburg and Philadelphia) and West Virginia.
The Steelers have not won a game since October 9, but this week they have the perfect cure for what ails them: a game against the Browns. Pittsburgh has struggled on defense, but Cleveland’s passing game has been impotent thanks to their merry go round at quarterback, which has in turn allowed opponents to stack the box and stop Isaiah Crowell and the running game. On the other side of the ball only the Niners have a worse defense than the Browns. Cleveland ranks last in third down defense and yards per pass, and is 31st in points, yards, rushing yards and red zone D.
That being said I am not expecting a blowout. The Steelers have not looked good away from home, losing their last three on the road – games in which they were favored to win each time. The Browns have actually either been winning or tied at halftime in half of their games this year. DE Cameron Heyward and WR Markus Wheaton were placed on Injured Reserve this week; the loss of Heyward in particular is a blow for their struggling defense.
Prediction: Steelers 27, Browns 20
Browns +8½ . . . . over 43½ . . . . . Pittsburgh -380
Final Score: Steelers 24, Browns 9 ✓
Browns +8½ x . . . . over 43½ x . . . . Steelers -380 ✓
NFL Week 11 Early Sunday Games on FOX
★★★ 4-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 7-2 Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday November 20 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston and Laura Okmin
Chiefs -7½ . . . . over/under 44½ . . . . KAN -320, TAM +260
Broadcast in Alabama (except Huntsville and Mobile), Fort Smith AR, Florida (except Jacksonville, Miami and West Palm Beach), northern California, Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Reno NV, Oklahoma, Utah and Wyoming.
The Chiefs have won five straight to quietly take a share of the lead in the AFC West. The Kansas City defense (18.7 points allowed, 7th) has carried the team, thanks to a league best 22 takeaways and +14 turnover differential. However KC has had trouble stopping the run, and Doug Martin is back in the lineup from his hamstring injury for the Bucs. The Chiefs have allowed opponents to rush for 4.7 yards per carry (30th) and 122 yards per game (27th). If CB Marcus Peters (hip pointer) is unable to play that will open things up for WR Mike Evans and the Buc offense – and possibly an upset to end Kansas City’s ten-game home winning streak.
Prediction: Chiefs 24, Buccaneers 17
Buccaneers +7½ . . . . under 44½ . . . . . Tampa Bay +260
Final Score: Buccaneers 19, Chiefs 17 x
Buccaneers +7½ ✓ . . . . under 44½ ✓ . . . . Buccaneers +260 ✓
★★ 2-7 Chicago Bears at 6-3 New York Giants
Sunday November 20 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Kevin Burkhardt, John Lynch and Pam Oliver
Giants -7½ . . . . over/under 41½ . . . . NYG -280, CHI +240
Broadcast in New England, DC, Illinois (except southern IL), Indiana (except Indianapolis), New Orleans LA, Grand Rapids MI, Mississippi, eastern New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania (except Pittsburgh), Memphis TN, Austin TX, and Virginia.
The Giants have won four in a row and are receiving a lot of hype from the New York based national media. I am not particularly impressed by Big Blue; they should have lost to Philly and barely beat the Ravens, Rams and an uninspired Bengals team. Today they get an easy home game against a Bears team that is now without RG Kevin Long, NT Will Sutton and wide receivers Alshon Jeffery and Kevin White. Those losses on offense will result in Jay Cutler making a critical error or three that results in a turnover. The Giants’ six wins have been by a combined total of just 21 points, with none by more than seven. I’ll give a slight lean to the Bears plus the points here.
Prediction: Giants 27, Bears 20
Bears +7½ . . . . over 41½ . . . . . New York -280
Final Score: Giants 22, Bears 16 ✓
Bears +7½ ✓ . . . . over 41½ x . . . . Giants -280 ✓
★★★ 4-4-1 Arizona Cardinals at 5-4 Minnesota Vikings
Sunday November 20 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Joe Buck, Troy Aikman and Erin Andrews
Vikings -2 . . . . over/under 40½ . . . . MIN -130, ARI +110
Broadcast in Huntsville AL, Mobile AL, Alaska, Arkansas (except Ft Smith), Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Iowa, eastern Kentucky, Louisiana (except New Orleans), Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, Las Vegas NV, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oregon, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas (except Austin, Dallas and Houston), Washington and Wisconsin.
Before the season began these two playoff teams from 2015 were considered to be serious contenders to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. The Vikings have lost four in a row and the only reason Arizona has made its way up to .500 is because they got to play the Niners twice, plus the Jets. Both teams have capable defenses, ranking first and third in points allowed. Minnesota’s offensive line is a mess though, with one injury after another. Meanwhile Carson Palmer can’t hold onto the ball, fumbling it an NFL-high ten times this season.
Prediction: Vikings 23, Cardinals 17
Vikings -2 . . . . under 40½ . . . . . Minnesota -135
Final Score: Vikings 30, Cardinals 24 ✓
Vikings -2 ✓ . . . . under 40½ x . . . . Vikings -135 ✓
★★★★ 4-5 Buffalo Bills at 3-5-1 Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday November 20 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Thom Brennaman, Charles Davis and Chris Speilman
Bengals -2½ . . . . over/under 47½ . . . . CIN -135, BUF +115
Broadcast in Kentucky, western New York, Ohio (except Cleveland) and West Virginia.
For only the second time since September the Bengals get to play in Cincinnati; their only victory during that time span was against the Browns. Cincy’s offensive line has struggled, while Jerry Hughes and Lorenzo Alexander have wreaked havoc on opponents with Buffalo’s pass rush. The Bills are 4-1 with a healthy LeSean McCoy, while the Bengals seem to still be in a hangover from last season’s playoff meltdown against Pittsburgh.
Prediction: Bills 27, Bengals 20
Bills +2½ (two units) . . . . under 47½ . . . . . Buffalo +125
Final Score: Bills 16, Bengals 12 ✓
Bills +2½ ✓✓ . . . . under 47½ ✓ . . . . Bills +125 ✓
NFL Week 11 Late Game on FOX
★★ 5-4 Miami Dolphins at 4-5 Los Angeles Rams
Sunday November 20 at 4:05 pm ET on FOX; Chris Myers, Ronde Barber and Jennifer Hale
Dolphins -1 . . . . over/under 39½ . . . . MIA -115, LAR +105
Broadcast in southern California, Hawaii, east Florida (Jacksonville, Miami, West Palm Beach), Baltimore, Dallas, Detroit, Cleveland, Houston, Indianapolis, Nashville and Pittsburgh.
Miami will attempt to control the game with Jay Ajayi running the ball, but the Rams have been very effective defending the rush. The Rams finally start rookie quarterback Jared Goff this week. Goff possesses a far superior arm than Case Keenum, but the Dolphins have a very effective pass rush. More downfield passes would open the running game up for Todd Gurley, but that will be a moot point if Goff is being pressured into making mistakes. Miami will be without LT Brandon Albert, which should allow the Rams to get to Ryan Tannehill.
Prediction: Rams 16, Dolphins 13
Rams +1 . . . . under 39½ (two units) . . . . . Rams -105
Final Score: Dolphins 14, Rams 10 x
Rams +1 x . . . . under 39½ ✓✓ . . . . . Rams -105 x
NFL Week 11 Late Games on CBS
★★★★ 7-2 New England Patriots at 1-8 San Francisco 49ers
Sunday November 20 at 4:25 pm ET on CBS; Greg Gumbel, Trent Green and Jamie Erdahl
Patriots -11½ . . . . over/under 51 . . . . NWE -600, SFO +450
Broadcast in New England, California (except San Diego), Hawaii, South Dakota, Buffalo, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Mobile, Pittsburgh, Reno, Tampa and West Palm Beach.
On paper the New England offense versus the San Francisco defense is a mismatch of epic proportions, even without Rob Gronkowski. However the Patriot defense struggled to slow down Seattle last week, and the Niners have had times when their offense has been able to move the ball effectively on offense. I thought this would be a good game for New England to utilize Tyler Gaffney, and give LeGarrette Blount a bit of a breather. Gaffney was waived though, so this may instead be a chance for Dion Lewis to shake off the rust and get some reps in his first game of the season.
Prediction: Patriots 35, Forty Niners 17
Patriots -11½ (two units) . . . . over 51 . . . . New England -650
Final Score: Patriots 30, Niners 17 ✓
Patriots -11½ ✓✓ . . . . over 51 x . . . . Patriots -650 ✓
★★★★ 5-4 Philadelphia Eagles at 6-2-1 Seattle Seahawks
Sunday November 20 at 4:25 pm ET on CBS; Jim Nantz, Phil Simms and Tracy Wolfson
Seahawks -6½ . . . . over/under 43 . . . . SEA -280, PHI +240
Broadcast in all markets except for Los Angeles and those showing the Patriots-Niners game, above.
It will be interesting to see how Carson Wentz handles the noise in Seattle. Philadelphia has struggled in pass protection since Lane Johnson was suspended; Cliff Avril and Frank Clark should be able to pressure the rookie quarterback into mistakes. Seattle’s defense has improved with the return of Kam Chancellor from a groin injury. Philly can generate more of a pass rush against Seattle than the Patriots did, but their secondary has been prone to blown coverages.
Prediction: Seahawks 24, Eagles 13
Seahawks -6½ (one unit) . . . . under 43 . . . . . Seattle -280
Final Score: Seahawks 26, Eagles 15 ✓
Seahawks -6½ ✓ . . . . under 43 ✓ . . . . . Seahawks -280 ✓
NFL Week 11 Sunday Night Football on NBC
★★★★ 4-5 Green Bay Packers at 5-3-1 Washington Redskins
Sunday November 20 at 8:30 pm ET on NBC; Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth and Michele Tafoya
Redskins -3 . . . . over/under 48½ . . . . WAS -145, GNB +125
Broadcast in all markets.
RB James Starks is back from his knee injury, but the Packers have problems on their offensive line. Center JC Tretter and RG TJ Lang are out, and though LT David Bakhtiari will play, he is dealing with a knee injury from last week’s game. Green Bay is also suffering from injuries at linebacker and in their secondary, allowing opponents to gain 7.7 yards per pass attempt (30th). Kirk Cousins should have a big game against this suspect pass coverage.
Prediction: Redskins 31, Packers 27
Redskins -3 . . . . over 48½ . . . . . Washington -145
Final Score: Redskins 42, Packers 24 ✓
Redskins -3 ✓ . . . . over 48½ ✓ . . . . . Redskins -145 ✓
NFL Week 11 Monday Night Football on BSPN
★★★★ 6-3 Houston Texans ‘at’ 7-2 Oakland Raiders in Mexico City
Monday November 21 at 8:30 pm ET on BSPN; Sean McDonough, Jon Gruden and Lisa Salters
Raiders -6 . . . . over/under 46 . . . . OAK -250, HOU +210
Broadcast in all markets.
Derek Carr (17 TD, 3 INT) has been on fire this season, and Oakland is scoring 27.2 points per game, fifth most in the NFL. Houston got its first road win of the year last week at Jacksonville, by three points – despite a net total of 92 passing yards. Oakland should win this game easily.
Prediction: Raiders 27, Texans 17
Raiders -6 (two units) . . . . under 46 . . . . . Oakland -250
Final Score: Raiders 27, Texans 20 ✓
Raiders -6 ✓✓ . . . . under 46 x . . . . . Raiders -250 ✓
NFL Week 11 Byes
6-4 Atlanta Falcons
7-3 Denver Broncos
3-7 New York Jets
4-6 San Diego Chargers
NFL Week 11 Thursday Night Football
★★★ 4-5 New Orleans Saints at 3-6 Carolina Panthers
Thursday, November 17 at 8:300 pm ET on NBC; Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth and Michele Tafoya
Panthers -3½ . . . . over/under 53 . . . . CAR -185, NOR +165
Broadcast in all markets.
Week by week the Panthers slowly creep back into the playoff race after a horrendous start to the season.
Prediction: Panthers 31, Saints 27
Panthers -3½ . . . . over 53 . . . . . Carolina -185
Final Score: Panthers 23, Saints 20 ✓
Panthers -3½ x . . . . over 53 x . . . . Panthers -185 ✓
NFL Week 11 Parlays and Teasers
3-Team Parlay (one unit): ✓
Lions -6 vs Jaguars ✓
Patriots -11½ at 49ers ✓
Raiders -6 vs Texans ✓
5-Team 6-Point Teaser (two units): ✓✓
Lions -0 vs Jaguars ✓
Patriots -5½ at 49ers ✓
Bills +8½ at Bengals ✓
Buccaneers +13½ at Chiefs ✓
Ravens +13½ at Cowboys ✓
Tale of the Tape
Week 10 was a mixed bag at best, expecting the Falcons-Eagles to be a shootout but hitting on a couple other overs (Packers-Titans, Bucs-Bears). There just were not very many games I felt particularly confident about – zero wagers over two units – so I really should have limited the number of games I played.
Week 10 Results:
6-8 Straight Up
4-10 Against the Spread
2-unit plays: 3-1, +380
1-unit plays: 1-6, -560
3-Game Parlay: 1u, -110
4-Game Teaser: 2u, -220
18 units invested
4-9, -510 on $1980 risk.
Year to Date Results:
82-63-2 Straight Up
78-65-4 Against the Spread
5-unit plays: 1-0, +500
3-unit plays: 6-5-1, +120
2-unit plays: 24-13, +1990
1-unit plays: 33-20-1, +1090
Parlays: 2-6, +1140
Teasers: 5-3, +2150
71-47-2, +7100 on original $2310 risk.
307.4% ROI on original $2310 bankroll.
33.3% ROI on $21,340 (194 units) of total weekly investments.
4-9, -510 on 18 units (-25.8%) in Week 10.
7-4, +850 on 17 units (+45.5%) in Week 9.
11-2, +3470 on 27 units (+116.8%) in Week 8.
3-6, -480 on 12 units (-36.4%) in Week 7.
9-3-1, +1300 on 17 units (+69.5%) in Week 6.
7-7, +50 on 22 units (+2.1%) in Week 5.
9-2, +1910 on 18 units (+96.5%) in Week 4.
3-9-1, -1280 on 22 units (-58.2%) in Week 3.
9-3, +950 on 20 units (+43.2%) in Week 2.
9-2, +840 on 21 units (+36.4%) in Week 1.
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Posted Under: NFL Commentary
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