The Patriots return home to Gillette Stadium for a big matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday afternoon. This one has serious playoff implications for the AFC East and in the conference.
The Patriots no longer control their own destiny for the AFC’s top seed, with the Baltimore Ravens holding the top seed virtue of the tiebreaker, beating New England head-to-head. And the Patriots lead over the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East has been decreased to just one game. The Bills and Ravens play each other on Sunday in Buffalo, so the opportunity to gain ground on one of them exists, but only if the Patriots can come away with a victory. A loss to Kansas City would put them only a game behind New England in the conference.
With a win on Sunday night, the Patriots would win the 11th game of the year, marking 10 straight seasons with at least 11 wins, which is an NFL record.
This week’s game will be broadcast by CBS and can be seen locally on WBZ-TV Channel 4. Jim Nantz will handle play-by-play duties with Tony Romo as the color analyst. Tracy Wolfson will work from the sidelines. The game will also be aired on the Patriots flagship radio station 98.5 The Sports Hub with Bob Socci and Scott Zolak on the call, produced by Marc Capello.
The Patriots (10-2) are returning home after losing to the Houston Texans 28-22 on Sunday night.
The Chiefs (8-4) are coming off of a big 40-9 win over the Oakland Raiders.
We here at PatsFans.com are continuing our “Razor’s Edge” column in 2019 to give some quick analysis on some of the key matchups of the game and what you can look for in how the game plays out.
The Patriots and Chiefs have been meeting since the early days of the AFL and used to meet twice a year from 1960 through the AFL-NFL Merger in 1970. The Chiefs hold an 18-14 series edge overall. At home, the Patriots are 11-7-2. Recently, however, either at Gillette or at Arrowhead, both teams hold a 5-1 advantage at home. The teams met twice last year with the Patriots holding serve at home 43-40 and then defeating the Chiefs in Arrowhead 37-31 in the AFC Championship Game.
Here is a look at some of the key matchups and who holds the Razor’s Edge.
First up is the Patriots offense:
Patriots RBs vs Chiefs Front Seven – Razor’s Edge New England
The Patriots running game had its best game of the season last week in Houston running for 145 yards. James White and Sony Michel combined for most of the production on the ground. However, a lot of that yardage came after Houston was comfortably ahead. But they did run the ball much more effectively there and against Dallas the week prior.
The Chiefs run defense is their biggest weakness and they allow a whopping 141.3 yards per game. One bright spot for them has been the play of Mike Pennel who spent training camp and preseason with the Patriots.
This is a huge key to the game for the Patriots. With their offense struggling to score points, they need to establish the running game to keep the chains moving and to slow the game down. The Chiefs defense struggles to stop the run on first down and that is where the Patriots have to be consistent and get production.
Look for the trio of running backs, Sony Michel, James White, and Rex Burkhead to get plenty of work as they try to establish the run and set up play-action passing against a KC defense that likes to pin their ears back and get after the QB.
Patriots WRs vs Chiefs Secondary – Razor’s Edge Kansas City
The Patriots passing game has sputtered in the second half of the season and it has become a case where the players are overthinking things, which slows down their game and ultimately has led to mental mistakes. Julian Edelman remains Tom Brady’s go-to guy and he’s been excellent, but opponents know that and have been doubling Edelman and then using a corner or safety on James White, essentially daring the Patriots to beat them elsewhere.
The Chiefs pass defense is in the middle (16th) in the league allowing 230 yards per game. Their coverage has improved with four corners (Bashaud Breeland, Chavarius Ward, Morris Claiborne, and Kendall Fuller) providing depth. Tyrann Mathieu has solidified the safety position. New Defensive Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo likes to get after the QB and KC has racked up 34 sacks with Frank Clark, Chris Jones, Emanuel Ogbah, Tanoh Kpassagnon, and Alex Okafor all having good production.
The Chiefs want to get opponents in obvious third-down passing situations, where their pass rush turns into ball-hawking opportunities. On 3rd down the Chiefs defense is 3rd in the league in sacks and 4th in turnover percentage. The Patriots desperately need secondary receivers not named Edelman or White to step up. Phillip Dorsett, Mohamad Sanu, Jakobi Meyers, N’Keal Harry with tight ends Ben Watson and Matt LaCosse need to step it up. If they continue their production as is, it will be a long afternoon again for the offense.
Next up the Chiefs offense:
Chiefs RBs vs NE Front Seven – Razor’s Edge New England
The Chiefs have a trio of their own at running back with Damien Williams, LeSean McCoy and Darrel Williams, but they are banged up right now. Darrel Williams was placed on IR and Damien has been bothered with a rib injury, McCoy leads the Chiefs with just 410 yards on the ground. The Chiefs average just 94 yards per game on the ground.
The Patriots run defense has really looked much better the past two weeks with Lawrence Guy and Danny Shelton anchoring down the front and not allowing opponents to get to the second level. We look for Andy Reid to try to get McCoy going against his old divisional foe just enough to keep the defense honest, but this is a matchup the Patriots should be able to win.
Chiefs WRs vs NE Secondary- Razor’s Edge Kansas City
The Chiefs passing game unlike New England’s is built for speed. Patrick Mahomes has Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, and Mecole Hardman who can all go to the house if they get the ball in space. Mahomes’ main target is Travis Kelce who leads the team with 68 receptions, 928 yards with four TDs. Mahomes has 20 TD passes against just two interceptions this year.
The Patriots secondary has been outstanding this year, however, last week in Houston they allowed four TD passes after just allowing only four all season. Stephon Gilmore and Jonathan Jones will be stressed this week, it would help matters to have Jason McCourty back this week as well. The pass rush will have to be better this week and trying to force Mahomes to get rid of the ball before he’s ready to.
Mahomes is in his third year, (2nd as a starter). The Patriots were able to confuse him at times last year, but those days are coming to an end as he’ll recognize more and more of what they’ll be trying to do. Which is why they pass rush is so important this week. If the Chiefs turn this into a track meet, they’ll put up a boatload of points.
Special Teams- Razor’s Edge Kansas City
The Patriots special teams doesn’t have a kicker (Thursday afternoon), will they be going with Jake Bailey kicking and Jarrett Stidham as the holder this week? Bailey has been outstanding punting this season and the coverage units superb.
Kansas City has Harrison Butker who is 25-29 on FG attempts this season. Three of his four misses were beyond 50 yards. Dustin Colquitt is having a great season with just two touchbacks on his 39 punts. The Chiefs coverage units have been outstanding.
Next up, who wins and why…
The Patriots are looking to improve to 11-2 and this one may be of more importance to them than the Chiefs. They have their division pretty much locked in having beat Oakland twice and up essentially three games with four to go.
Keys to the Game from a Patriots Perspective:
Run, Run, Run the Ball – The Patriots have to take the pressure off the passing game and give them much more manageable third downs this week. They have to run the ball, slow the game down and allow them to dictate the pace and tempo.
Kansas City’s run defense is poor and running effectively will bring up those linebackers and make them susceptible to play-action passing, which hopefully, will allow those struggling secondary receivers to get some needed separation this week.
The Defense Can’t Allow 1-Play Drives – The Patriots defense has to make the Chiefs chip away and move slowly down the field, a small piece at a time. In both matchups last season, the Chiefs ate them up with big plays in the second half. This year, the Chiefs are among the best first-half teams in football and get off to fast starts.
The defense will get stressed by the speed of this offense and they’ll need to weather the storm. Being physical at the line of scrimmage and challenging the Chiefs WRs is a difficult proposition. But allowing them a free release off the line is a recipe for disaster.
Time to Revisit the Turnover Machine – This is the time for the Patriots to get some turnovers rolling again. With the offense struggling to score points, they’re going to need help from the defense or special teams to get them some cheap points either through a fumble or a rare Mahomes interception.
This should be another great matchup between Andy Reid and Bill Belichick. The Chiefs struggled early this season, but are healthy now and rolling along looking better every week. The Patriots, on the other hand, were rolling early but are struggling now going 2-2 in their last month.
I’m going to drink the Kool-Aid this week and say, that at home, the Patriots and the offense find a way to slap some points together. They’ll start to get who they are offensively figured out a bit and play much better. The defense will get a key turnover and get that one big stop as they hold serve at home. Patriots 27-24
The “Knocking on Sevens’ Door” heads back out on the road next week to take on the Cincinnati Bengals.