Patriots-Bills Week 5, Keys To The Game, Key Matchups
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The Patriots travel to Buffalo for a Sunday Night Football matchup with the division champion Bills this week. The Bills are rolling along at 4-0 and are the best team in the AFC, and arguably the best in the league right now.
After a big offensive output last week, the Patriots look ahead and see a Bills team that presents a big litmus test for them at this early juncture of the season. The Patriots are 2-2 and should be 3-1, but Buffalo is the team they want to be.
The Bills are a better and deeper overall team than the Patriots are right now. The Patriots showed that when they play clean football, they can be pretty good right now.
But they’re not at Buffalo’s level yet, and a win this week won’t put them there, but it would go a long way in helping them believe that they’re on the right track. Buffalo isn’t going 17-0, so they are hoping to bring their A-game and hope the Bills don’t, and they can steal one. It happens every week in the NFL.
By the same measure, a loss Sunday doesn’t mean the season is a bust either. On our podcast on Sunday and again on Tuesday, I mentioned that this could be a 2001 Patriots-Rams game where they may come up short, but play the Bills an even game for four quarters, taking away from the game that they can hang with the Bills, who I think will win the Super Bowl this year.
Buffalo has won 14 straight at home, so this won’t be an easy task, but the hard is what makes the game so great. To this, I remember an instructor of mine at the Special Forces school many moons ago, who had this to say. “It isn’t easy graduating to be a Green Beret. It’s hard as hell…If it were easy, every s**tbird would become one.”
The Patriots put together an excellent overall team effort last week, beating the Carolina Panthers 42-13. They dominated in all three phases of the game, with Marcus Jones returning a punt 87 yards for a touchdown to get the Patriots rolling and take a lead they would not relinquish.
Drake Maye combined for three scores, two passing and one rushing, and finished with a passer rating of 155.6. Six different Patriots scored touchdowns.
Buffalo beat the winless New Orleans Saints 31-19, but the Bills had just a two-point lead, 21-19, in the fourth quarter when they called upon Josh Allen to do Josh Allen things, and he led the offense to 10 quick points to put the game away. Allen combined for three TDs (two passing, one rushing), and James Cook rushed for 117 yards and a score.
NBC will broadcast this week’s game, which can be seen in the Boston area on NBC 10 Boston. Mike Tirico will handle play-by-play duties with Cris Collinsworth as the color analyst. Melissa Stark will work from the sidelines. The game will also be aired on the Patriots’ flagship radio station, 98.5 The Sports Hub, with Bob Socci and Scott Zolak on the call, produced by Marc Capello.
We at PatsFans.com are continuing our “Razor’s Edge” column in 2025 to analyze some of the game’s key matchups and what to expect in the game’s outcome.
The Bills are expected to get several of their starters back this week. This week’s game will be the Patriots’ last regular-season game played at Highmark Stadium, as Buffalo will open its new stadium next year. It is being built next door to their current home.
The Bills will be wearing their all-white Cold Front uniforms. They are encouraging all fans in attendance to wear white and will issue white towels for the game to create a white-out effect. It won’t be long before the Buffalo weather gives them one for real. And these uniforms are supposed to celebrate that.
I’m not one for all these different uniform looks, and to me, it’s just another excuse to dip their hands into fans’ pockets. The Patriots’ ones that they’ll wear later this year absolutely suck, but that is a conversation for another time.
Now, we can examine some key matchups and determine who holds the Razor’s Edge. First up is the Patriots offense:
The Patriots’ running game last week was good but not great. They had solid efforts from all three running backs, but they aren’t getting the kind of running game that they need or were expected at this point in the season.
The Bills’ run defense with LB Matt Milano and DE Ed Oliver has been struggling, allowing a whopping 163.5 yards per game and 6.0 yards per rush. However, both of those players returned to practice this week. So, those numbers should improve mightily with them in the lineup.
One area that the Patriots have had success running against the Bills is the scheme where they cut back against the weak side, the Saints had some success doing the same thing last week.
Shortening the game and having a good running game that allows for play action passing is the Patriots best chance of hanging with Buffalo. They don’t want to get into a situation where they have to match the league MVP on the road.
The Patriots’ passing game seems to be finding a rhythm with Drake Maye in Josh McDaniels’ offense. Stefon Diggs’ move into the slot paid dividends last week, as he racked up six catches for 101 yards.
The Bills’ pass defense is excellent, allowing just 125.8 yards per game, which is #1 in the NFL. They have given the Patriots a rough time due to their secondary, which employs a lot of zone coverage, but they mix it up frequently.
Drake Maye faced them last year in Buffalo and had a pretty solid game, completing 22-36 for 261 yards with two TDs and an INT. If Maye and the Patriots can keep up their way of making plays, especially on third downs against the Bills’ simulated pressure schemes, then they have a puncher’s chance.
Next up, the Bills’ offense:
The Patriots have done a tremendous job of limiting their opponents’ running games thus far, allowing just 77.5 yards per game, #2 in the NFL entering this week. A huge part of that is the play of Milton Williams and Christian Barmore, who are outstanding at penetrating the line and disrupting the flow. Khyiris Tonga has also had an excellent season thus far.
But this week, they face the Bills, who are #1 in the NFL at running the football, averaging a massive 164.3 yards per game. James Cook is having a mammoth season, and along with Josh Allen, it isn’t going to be a picnic.
One thing the Patriots will need to do is improve their tackling. They’ve been outstanding at flowing with a mass of bodies to the ball, but the initial player has to be better, much better this week. Robert Spillane will have to bring his A-game this week. I wouldn’t be surprised to see more of Anfernee Jennings this week, setting the edge.Buffa
They are not going to stop Buffalo’s running game; not many teams will. But they need to get them in some situations where the Bills are forced to throw on third down. If Buffalo is constantly in 3rd-and-1 and 3rd-and-2 situations, it will be a long Sunday night.
The Bills’ passing game goes through Josh Allen, and it becomes a pick-your-poison type of scenario. The Bills are #6 in the league in passing yards, but #1 in rushing EPA, and #1 in rushing EPA.
They run behind two tight end sets and when teams stack the box against Cook, Allen then throws to his talented Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman with Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid at tight end. The Bills lead the league with 7.2 yards after the catch in the passing game.
The Patriots will have to roll the dice by deciding whether to play man coverage against the wide receivers and potentially allow Allen to run all over them, or sit back in zone and take their chances with the Buffalo running game.
The Patriots’ special teams units had a fantastic effort last week against Carolina. If they have any shot of pulling off a monumental upset of the undefeated Bills, they will need another type of effort.
Marcus Jones had nearly two punt return touchdowns in the game. In the Miami game, Antonio Gibson had a 90-yard kickoff return for a TD.
Buffalo is punter #3 in Mitch Wishnowsky, due to injuries to Cameron Johnston. And their return game has been stuck in neutral.
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The Patriots are riding high after their blowout win over the Panthers last week, They feel like they are turning a corner in the rebuild. Drake Maye has been playing better each week and they now have their best defensive player, cornerback Christian Gonzalez back.
But is anyone riding higher than the Bills are right now? The Patriots are 7.5-point underdogs this week. While I think they’ll keep it closer than that. Buffalo is still a much better overall team. Allen and Cook…cook Buffalo 31-25
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When Buff’s running game is working, it puts Allen in a rocking chair and makes it easy for him to play action pass etc. stopping Cook is key. Buffs off line is pretty good. We’ll see if the pats run D is solid, or are the early season stats skewed per matchups and few games. It’s likely somewhere in the middle.
Buffs pass D stats are a little skewed per matchups too. It’s early. I’m looking for a competitive game. Or close thereof.
Thanks JimK, always great points, they have to limit how much they play man coverage too, since Allen can take off. I’m curious to see how the Patriots offense game plans this one