Patriots News, 10-05 Patriots Face Big Test In Buffalo, NFL Picks
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Good morning. Here is your Patriots news, 10-05, and NFL notes this week. The Patriots play in Buffalo later tonight on Sunday Night Football, as Buffalo braces for a whiteout before the weather dictates one, with their Cold Front uniforms, white towels, and asking all of the fans to wear white. It should be some supercharged atmosphere.
The emotion and the noise will be deafening, and the Patriots will have to survive the first 10-15 minutes of bedlam and keep their composure if they want to pull off the huge upset.
The Patriots played the Bills competitively in Buffalo last season but ultimately lost 31-24. The teams have split the last four; however, the Bills rested nearly all of their starters for the finale of the 2024 season and tried very hard to lose the game, knocking the Patriots out of the running for the #1 pick in this year’s NFL Draft.
This will be a very different contest; Buffalo is looking for a 5-0 start and a 3-0 start in the division, having already beaten the Jets and Dolphins. The Patriots are trying to go 2-0 in the division and move over .500, marking a key spot in their rebuild, which would take a giant step forward with an upset win.
As we stated in our keys to the game, Buffalo isn’t going to go 17-0 this year. This would be an excellent time for the Patriots to steal a win away from the Bills as they march through the season. They are capable, but they’ll have to bring their A-game and play clean football, limiting penalties and cutting out turnovers.
It is an early season measuring stick type of game to see how they match up with the Bills, who have owned the division for the past five years. But go back to 2019, the Patriots and Tom Brady had owned Buffalo for two decades. In an early season matchup, the Patriots won a close game where they intercepted Buffalo QBs four times (Allen with three).
In the second matchup, Buffalo showed they could hang with New England, and although they dropped that one 24-17, they led that game until five minutes left. The next season, they swept the Patriots en route to the division title.
Are the Patriots advancing enough to be that kind of team? Tonight will be the first indicator if they’re on their way.
For the early risers, the Vikings-Browns game in London should be fun to watch. The UK NFL fans love their football and it is always cool to see so many different jerseys in the stands.
Jones/Bourne: The San Francisco 49ers beat the LA Rams in overtime on Thursday night, and they relied heavily on two former Patriots, QB Mac Jones and WR Kendrick Bourne, in the game.
With starting QB Brock Purdy sidelined with a turf toe injury, Jones has led the Niners to a 3-0 record and has passed for 905 yards, six touchdowns, and just one interception. Jones tied Jim Plunkett with a team record six touchdown passes in his first three games as a 49er.
During the game in Los Angeles, Jones relied heavily on his former Patriot teammate, Kendrick Bourne, who caught 10 passes for 142 yards. Bourne, who played with Jones between 2021 and 2023 in New England, has seen a change in the QB.
“It’s just awesome to see him in this space. How I seen him in New England was a different world for him. To see him now, with the peace he has, he’s playing freely and having a great time. I think it’s a big part of the game for him, and it’s showing,” Bourne said.
“Mac’s a good quarterback and KB’s a good receiver. I know we call it chemistry when they connect, but they genuinely like each other; they’ve played together in New England. It was impressive today,” coach Kyle Shanahan said after the game.
Marcus Jones: The Patriots’ punt returner was the AFC’s Special Teams Player of the Week after the game with the Panthers, which was no surprise. Jones had punt returns of 87 (touchdown), 61, and 19 against Carolina.
The first, his long touchdown, jump-started the Patriots and flipped the momentum in favor of the home team. The 61-yarder, where he just barely tripped up, set the Patriots up at the Carolina 14-yard line for a short touchdown drive to put the Patriots up 28-6 at the half.
The Patriots will need continued success from him in the return game as their season winds on. There will be games where the offense struggles or they need a momentum shifting play. Those are always the things that can turn a loss into a victory. And for a rebuilding team, it is a necessity.
Patriots No Huddle Podcast: Derek, Mike, and I broke down the game against Carolina on our Sunday night postgame podcast. Later in the week, the three of us broke down the upcoming Bills’ game, focusing on key matchups and key strategies for success. You can find our podcasts on YouTube, Apple, or Spotify. Please take a look and leave us a review.
Russ Francis/Chuck Fairbanks: The former Patriot tight end and head coach should be in the Patriots team Hall of Fame, and the fact that Francis isn’t is an absolute travesty. Francis and the Raiders’ Dave Casper changed how teams used the tight end position.
This will be displayed in our Sunday posts until it happens. Casper is in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Francis’ numbers stand up well against Casper’s, yet he isn’t even in the team’s HOF.
The Patriots are looking to get over .500 for the first time this season and this will be a tough matchup, facing the 4-0 Bills on the road. Buffalo owns the #1 offense in passing EPA and #1 offense in rushing EPA. And they are on a roll.
They let the Saints hang around into the fourth quarter last week, before Josh Allen and company put them away. Don’t expect a similar lackluster effort this week. This is an important divisional game for both teams, and they won’t take the Patriots lightly, something they may have done the past two years.
From a Patriots perspective, what must be done to win the game this week?
The Bills are allowing 6.0 yards per carry this season and 163.4 on the ground each week. The Patriots have to pound the ball against the weak side of that front seven to take advantage of play-action passing and keep the Bills excellent secondary off balance.
But can the Patriots take advantage of the Bills weakness here? The Patriots have not been a great running team thus far and rank far down in the league in rushing EPA. With Matt Milano, and Ed Oliver back, the Bills’ defense should improve against the run.
Using the three-headed running game with Rhamondre Stevenson, TreVeyon Henderson, and Antonio Gibson, the Patriots will have to exploit that weakside of the Bills defense, allowing Drake Maye to hit some play action passing.
With the Bills offense, it comes down to a “pick your poison” type of defensive game plan. Buffalo averages 164.3 yards per game on the ground. It mainly goes through James Cook, but we all know how Josh Allen can shred defenses on the ground when the Bills need a big third down conversion.
The Patriots like to play a nickel defense with an extra defensive back, but that would invite the Bills to run even more. Or do they decide to play more base defense, to get tougher against the run and roll the dice in pass defense with the Bills having Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, with Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid at tight end?
We could see more of Anfernee Jennings, especially on early downs in this one. He sets the edge and is a better run stuffer than K’Lavon Chaisson, who is banged up this week, or Keion White. I think the Bills opt to run right at the Patriots’ defense this week, right where they are their strongest with Christian Barmore, Milton Williams, and Khyiris Tonga.
The tackling will have to be spot on this week, and they’ll need a big game from Robert Spillane. The Patriots are allowing just 77.3 yards per game on the ground, but they haven’t faced a running team like Buffalo’s yet.
The Patriots’ second-year QB has been very good through the quarter mark of the season, having passed for 988 yards with seven touchdowns and just two interceptions, with a 74.0 completion percentage, for a passer rating of 109.4.
Now, he has his most significant task of the season, trying to keep pace with the arguably best offense in the NFL. He and Josh McDaniels have developed a very nice working relationship, and Maye’s assimilation in McDaniels’ offense has been nice to see. As McDaniels was quoted on the sideline last week, “we’re just scratching the surface.”
Buffalo’s defense is excellent against the pass, #1 in the NFL, allowing just 125.8 yards per game. So, how do they solve it?
First, they’ll have to run the ball effectively to stay out of third-and-long situations. And rather than test the secondary, the best chance they have is to attack the Bills’ linebackers in coverage.
This could be another Hunter Henry/Austin Hooper kind of game, with the running backs playing a key role in the passing game (Henderson?). I also look for Maye, trying to get Diggs involved early and often in this one.
Everyone wrote off the 49ers because of the ton of injuries they have suffered. But they leaned on Christian McCaffrey, and former Patriots Mac Jones and Kendrick Bourne each had huge games for the Niners, who pulled out an OT win.
Now we’ll see how the rest of the schedule goes.
Thursday Night Football:
LA Rams over San Francisco 0-1
Sunday Day Games:
Minnesota over Cleveland (London 9:30 am start)
Indianapolis over Las Vegas
NYG over New Orleans
Dallas over NYJ
Philadelphia over Denver
Miami over Carolina
Baltimore over Houston
Arizona over Tennessee
Tampa Bay over Seattle
Detroit over Cincinnati
LAChargers over Washington
Sunday Night Football:
Buffalo over New England
Monday Night Football:
Kansas City over Jacksonville
BYE WEEK:
Atlanta, Chicago, Green Bay, Pittsburgh
Last Week 10—5—1
2025 Season 44—19—1
2024 Season 204—68
2023 Season 178—94
2022 Season: 178—92—2
2021 Season: 183—88—1
2020 Season: 169—86—1
2019 Season: 162—93—1
“Well, they meet, we do a lot of walkthroughs, we exchange and really they begin to try to morph into that particular person by the end of the week.
“When the techniques are the same or the plays are the same, we want to just try to call our stuff, in our format, so they can go and play. I’ve never been a big believer in putting stuff on the show team and saying, “Well, this guy’s going to go here or bite up on the run or play this or play that.”
“Do we really know how they’re going to react on defense? I mean, they’re defensive guys. They’re going to get lined up, they’re going to communicate, they’re going to see the ball, they’re going to trigger. And so, to a more realistic – I’m like, “How do you know where they’re going to line up?”
“We’ve got a million cards, that we think that they’re going to actually be right there in the game or disappointed when they’re not there. Wherever they are, we’re going to have to block them. Wherever they are on offense, we’re going to have to cover them or tackle them.
“And I think that’s how you have to work and be able to teach the game so that you can become more instinctive and be able to handle the different things that are going to happen throughout the game.”
Mike Vrabel was asked about preparing in practice for James Cook and Khalil Shakir
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“Somebody asked me what success looks like, and I said, ‘Yeah, you can judge it by wins and losses during the season, but success for me in the offseason is going to be that the players believe in what we’re doing, and they believe in the message, they believe in the teaching, and they believe in the connections that we’re making.’” — Mike Vrabel
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Bills pass D stats are somewhat a function of playing Rattler, Fields etc. Stats in Sept are sometimes a bit misleading. I heard the pats run game stat struggles are a function of a work-in-progress zone runs where the timing with the RBs and O-line takes a ton of time to smooth out. Some of the guys in Denver from the Terrell Davis era talked about the significant time it took to get their zone runs ironed out. Someone commented this week that McDaniels may run more power tonight vs Bills. The Bills now have a team that runs the… Read more »