Why the Patriots are back to Champion Level

[Ring 6]

Maybe a better way to put it is that we have 2 guys lined up at "ILB" less than half the time.
Our versatility at LB just says that one of them, Vrabel, is playing a different postion, where last year that other ILB was on thesidelines.

 

[JR4]

Well, those stats include:

Indy
KC
Buffalo
Buffalo
Jets
Tampa
Miami
NO

and do not include
Carolina
Atlanta
Pitt
SD
Oakland
Denver

The second group averages 130.5 (we held them to 5.2 below their average, or 96%)
The first group averages 109.9 (we held them to 29.9 below avg, or 73% of their average)

I know this isnt a Math problem, but using the averages it says:

1st 6: allowed 125.3, would have allowed 95.0 with Bruschi)
Last 8: allowed 80 with Bruschi, would have allowed 105.5 without him.

Quite a difference no matter the opponent.

I'll guarantee that if we were allowing only 95 rush yards a game through the first 6 we would have been better than 3-3.

Again your stats can be misleading. The first group average ranking in run
offense is 12.5 while the second group average rush offense ranks 17.

It would stand to reason PATs would do better against the second group.

But another factor that your stats do not reveal is the moving averages.
Teams change during the year. Their averages determined are on the all the
games played.

For example:
The second group that has an average of 130 over the 14 games,
may have got that average due to high numbers early in the season.
Perhaps they now over the last 4 or 6 games they average only 110
yds/game. These are things that can lead to wrong conclusions.

There are so many factors and relationships to be considered that to
draw any conlcusion like you did is prone to error.

Once again I believe Bruschi is a significant reason for the PATs defense doing
better but I do beleive there several contributing factors.

 

[jczxohn1]

There is really one simple reason.

TEDY BRUSCHI

Since Bruschi's return we are 6-2. One of those losses, to the Colts was right after he came back, the other was a 4 Int game by Brady.

Why is Bruschi a cause rahter than effect?

Since Bruschi has returned, the Patriot run D has allowed 80 yards per game (which would rank 2nd in the NFL) and 3.1 yards per carry (which would rank first).
If we give him a mulligan for his first game back (which by the way was only 3.5 per carry) the Pat run D since he was back, and reasonably ready to play, has allowed 70.4 ypgame and 2.95 ypcarry. Both would easily rank first in the NFL.

Before Bruschi came back we allowed on average, 125.3 yard per game, and a 4.3 yard per rush average.

With Bruschi back the Pats have not allowed more than 4.1 in ANY SINGLE GAME. They have allowed 3.1 or less in 5 of the 8, the others being 3.5, 3.8 and 4.1.

Before Bruschi's return, the Patriots allowed 27.3 points per game, since his return 15.6. (Which by the way is right about what the best Pats D, 2003, did)

Before Bruschi's return the Pats allowed 20 or more points in all 6 games. Since they have allowed more than 17 only twice. (Outside of the Colt game, the average allowed is 12.1)


This, however, means even more than it seems.

In the last 4 years, we have not won the SB only 1 time. What is intersting about that year? Tedy Bruschi was injured. During the games Bruschi did not play, we allowed 180 rushing yards a game. When he played it was approx 110, the same as in 2001. Had Bruschi not been injured, would be looking for the 5th in a row???????????????

Any Patriot gan knows this is a different team with Bruschi, and all knw the leadership and intelligence he brings.
But these numbers out his impact in black and white.

If we continue to play run defense that allows 70.4 yards a game, and 2.95 a carry, it is very simply, no one will beat us.


There has been much talk of the team getting new players in, fixing the secondary, improving as the season goes on, etc.
Really, this Patriot season can be divided into 2 halves. The half without Bruschi, and the half with. IMO, the evidence says that the half before Bruschi is irrelevant to what the next 7 weeks will hold.

Tedy Bruschi is co-MVP of this team, along with Tom Brady.

AJ, you have left out the most important player to Buschi's success,
Richard Seymour, who came back about the same time. His anchoring the D line, and subsequent improvement of Wilfork, as well as the steady play of Warren have allowed the LB's to shine.

 

[Lloyd_Christmas]

For the most part I agree about bruschi being the key... although there have been other important injured players come back like seymour, dillon, faulk, givens, etc

Also, 2002 was pretty much done when we made funny man steve martin our NT with no viable plan B. He sucked and was the #1 reason we couldn't stop the run. We would never have won a SB with him as the NT.

 

[onegameatatime]

Bruschi is getting into playing form.
Vrable is getting used to a new position.
Seymour returns.
Green can play the role he's best ion.
Wilfork is coming on.
The DBs still make me nervous, but they are having time to gel.

I think Bruschi has been a big part of the improvement, but I would not underrate the change in quality of opponents. And it should continue for 2 weeks, although maybe we see a little more of Brown, Beisel, and TBC.

By the way, I would not be too hard on Brown and Beisel. The first is out of position, and the BB defense is supposed to be tough and take some time to catch on.

 

[PatsSteve1]

Remember what these linebackers did in SB XXXIX against Philly. They were in Mcnabb's face from the first play. The Pats D is unbeatable when the linebackers are dominant. And when they are healthy, that is 99% of the time. Fine play by Seymour-Wilfork-Warren allows the LB's to make the great plays too. We don't have a sack happy D-Line, most of our pressure comes from Colvin-Vrabel-Bruschi.

* The LB's are dominant when the DL is playing well. On both sides of teh ball it starts upfront. I think it too simplistic to say 1 guy has made all the difference. Seymour came back about the same time and both Wilfork and Warren have been playing better. And Colvin after looking like 1 guy could block him, now looks unblockable.

 

[BJ_McWild]

awesome thread.

rock on #54!!!

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I remember when you presented the with and without Tedy numbers on Run Defense before the 2003 season and you were proven correct. It is impossible to disagree with the otherwise coincidental turnaround this year. Not being a tape watcher, I don't know how Vrabel is doing inside but my feeling is that his moving inside with Colvin looking electric in his outside spot is another significant factor.

A few weeks ago you could literally see Vrabel was 2 steps slower than Bruschi in his read/react time. Without doing a Vrabel intensive look at recent games, my impression is that he is reading/reacting faster, and overrunning less - not to mention the additional experience at shedding blocks.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

When the Pats won in 2001, one of the big points that I noticed was Willie McGinest become a force in RUN defense. Remember we were playing the 43 and he was an undersized DE. Down the stetch and in the playoffs, he was dominant vs the run.
One of the big things I have noticed this year is Colvin has become a dominant run defender. Perhaps its the rehab from the injury, but he is a MUCH more physical player and plays superb run D. (Ive notice it since about the Colts game)

I think Vrabel keeps getting better inside. What has been lost on some is that he still plays OLB too. In our scheme, we play 5+ DBs on at least half the plays. Typically we remove an ILB. Vrabel is staying on the field, pretty much rotating with Colvin and McG on the snaps he is not inside. Vrabel is having an outstanding year.

Willie is Willie, playing up to his standards. On a side note, I think Willie McGinest is the best player in the league when a fumble is on the ground. How many times, like Sunday, does a ball squirt loose, and Willie is the one to get to it? A lot. Ive also seen him more than once block an offensive player away from the ball so another Pat could recover.

These LBs as a group, IMO, are playing the best combined football of their careers. This may be the #1 asset we have to repeat. Well, maybe 1A because we have The Brady.

Colvin may have improved his upper body strength, but he stunk against the run in the Oakland game. I suspect it is more technique and confidence that has made the difference - Chris Price's blog has Rosie's radio interview where he talks about learning the run stuffing role required of OLBs in this defense.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Right. We played base on 1st and 2nd and nickel on 3rd.

What I am saying is against some opponents and in some circumstances, we add the 5th DB on 1st or 2nd down.

We play something like:

Seymour, Wilfork, Warren
Vrabel, Bruschi, Colvin
5 DBs.

Its not as common against a better run than pass team like Buffalo.

If you go back to the Colts game, you'll see a low percentage of 4 LBs on the field.

In other words, the OLBs are DEs on 3rd down, and OLBs in the base.

But on many plays we go to a 'nickel' that leave the 3 DL in and the OLBs stay at OLB.

I think its less common this year than in the past, simply because we want all 4 LBs on the field as much as possible, and can mix and match them.
But last year we had 4 Lbs on the field as LBs fewer than 50% of the snaps.
If may be more than 50 this year, but not much more. (and remember 3rd down with 2 OLBs playing DE doesnt count, because they are playing LB)

On passing downs we pull Ty and Vince and bring in Jarvis and Hank as the base package. Earlier, when Sey was hurt, we were using TBC and Chad Brown on the line. Now with Vrabes move inside we haven't felt the need to adjust our LBs to get him, Willie, and Colvin on the field together, so we don't pull a LB until we go dime. I expect BB/EM has some situational line-ups for the playoffs that will bring in Chad at OLB and put Willie and Sey at DT or some such QB mind rape.

 

[Gumby]

Scott99: ...........He is also my favorite Patriot, but I won't jinx him again by thinking about buying a Bruschi jersey. I was thinking about getting a Bruschi jersy, then he had the stroke, then I wanted a Rodney Harrison jersy, and you know what happened. My mother wanted to buy me a Brady jersey in October for my birthday, and I told her "No freakin way in hell" lol.

MAY I highly recommend a Duane Starks jersey for you?

 

[DarrylS]

This is a great thread, agree about #54 he along with #93 make quite a difference.

I also notice a completely different play calling scenario, the first games the d line seemed more passive/vanilla, the last 5 or 6 games seems like the dogs have been let loose and are raising hell at the line of scrimmage. Seymour is playing as best as he ever has,and may not be showing up in the box score, but is always in the offensive backfield. This team is using so many different sets and rotations it is difficult to keep track, Mangini also seems to be coming to his own and is playing calling with more confidence.

 

[Mike the Brit]

Excellent analysis -- I find it hard to believe how much difference Bruschi seems to have made.

One area not mentioned is pass coverage. Watching Bruschi flying to bat down a pass to a tight end in the end zone brought it home to me how important line-backers are in coverage in the red zone. Is it a coincidence that our red zone defense has improved?