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The Mortality of Tommy Francis Brady: A Parable


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Time to put a big target on my chest for people to shoot at.

OK, fire away.

They come up short on functional talent and suddenly Brady is among the GOAT...When Brady says he doesn't care how they win as long as they do I believe him. He's the most adaptable QB on the planet. He's done it with less and with more. He's done it with his arm and handing off to running backs who were capable of running even when they knew it was coming. What he's been unable to do is win it all with one hand tied behind his back as Bedard stated when he also doesn't have a defense capable of closing out a game.

BTW if you're going to critique him you could start by getting his name right. As PatsFanInVA hints, the F in abreviated references to Thomas Edward Patrick Brady doesn't stand for Francis...

One of your most inane efforts to date.

And for those who think he makes too much, his present deal averages $15.8M per, same as Eli and less than what Manning ($19M) and Brees ($20M) average. And a lot less than the $20M dead cap charge Bill amassed this season. Bill used to say that a (as in any) franchise QB shouldn't take up more than 12% of the cap. Of course Brady was making minimum when he won his first ring as a 6th round draft pick. His second contract averaged $6M per agaiinst a cap that was $72M at the time. The 2005 deal 2 rings later and 2 years early that was the teams idea averaged $10M against a cap that was $113M. His present deal entered into in an uncapped 2010 averages $15.8M against a midpoint $128M cap and accounts for roughly a couple of hundred grand more than Belichick's ideal...

Talent and playmakers are the problem. Not because they can't afford them, but because they have failed to locate them or those they did have proved to be not durable or consistent performers when it matters most. Last off season Belichick tasked McD with self scouting this offense and coming up with a solution to the problem that had dogged it since 2007. What to so when the two top targets were taken away whether by an opponents defense or injury so the offense could still perform. His answer was to add Lloyd, experiment with Edelman for speed, and amass depth behind the two TE's while balancing the run pass ratio (which mind you failed to exist in 2007 because he was clinging to Maroney and in 2011 because he benched his rookies for the playoffs). Trouble is that didn't work, either. Because they still couldn't run against Baltimore's nickle, they appeared determined not to feature Vereen running or receiving away from the Ravens strength, the backup TE's in the final analysis were all jags, Lloyd wasn't as productive as anticipated and Edelman was on the shelf again by mid season.

This team operates on a margin. But that has little or nothing to do with Brady's ego or psyche or contract. They inked 2 TE's entering their third season to contracts that combined average $15M per. They are paying their LG and top LB and NT/DT deals that combined average $25M per. No TE or OL or LB here ever approached that level of elite top 5 or even top 10 deal on Belichick's watch even while performing at an elite level for years. I doubt Tedy or Vrabes ever cracked the top 20 and Rodney once pointed out neither did he. Bill has finally belatedly shifted his focus on defense to drafting youth and speed into what had been an empty pipeline for too long. Even went so far as to make an inseason trade to shore up a secondary that remaind abyssmal. His efforts continue to meet with mixed results. And unfortunate durability issues. That side of the ball remains a too long neglected work in progress that too little too late couldn't save. 9th in points allowed but 26th in yards allowed. A good deal of their improvement has revolved around turnover differential. We saw little of that effect in the post season. They got no pressure on Flacco and forced no turnovers and they even managed to get gashed a bit on the ground to the tune of 9 first downs.

Are players responsible individually for their own execution, you betcha. But when almost everyone has a bad day at the office it's time to look beyond the individual battles to coaching, game planning and ultimately roster construction. You'll never have all pros at every position. That's where scheme can be a difference maker. But absent sufficient talent and a lucky break here and there, scheme alone all to often becomes little more than failed theory.

Whether or not they game plan and playcall to run the ball has less to do with Brady than it does with the core faith the coaching staff has (not) in it's backs and OL to get the job done on the ground. And whether or not the passing game succeeds has less to do with the QB's performance or drive (love how he's either too intense or not intense enough depending on critic) than it does with coming up short on playmaking, functional options to ttarget. His top target was on the shelf again, his 3 best remaining targets were making physical and mental mistakes throughout and his 4th option was Deion Branch...with Vereen a distant 5th. His backs were averaging 3.9 ypc against a nickle defense before the lead back got Pollarded and lost the ball in the process. Frankly, I don't know what else he was supposed to do.

I believe the Ravens were in everyone's heads where they have resided since 2010, and the game plan and mindset ultimately the execution on both sides of the ball suffered as a result. Despite what they say, guys aren't stupid and they know they are playing on a razor thin margin. Most of which traces back to decisions made above their paygrade over the last several seasons. Poor drafting and development not to mention a reluctance to draft for certain positions coupled with poor choices in FA. That's what has dogged them since 2007. It's led to insufficient pass rush, a heartattack inducing secondary, and lack of explosive playmakers on both sides of the ball as well as on ST. Lose a couple of key cogs in that wheel as they seemingly do every playoff season when you're facing increasingly stiffer competition and you have the recipe for arriving there only to come up short. Teams on a tight margin either play tight or roll the dice and throw caution to the wind.

That's the parable. Maybe you should retitle this thread The Mortality of Billy Bob Belichick's System. Or take the stand Felger has that the law of averages dictates that a team that consistently knocks on the door is bound to break it down sooner or later. The key is adding a few more cogs to the wheel so when they next knock on that door they won't again be rolling on the mickey mouse spare. If Gronknandez or whatever backs it up can be counted on and Deion Branch isn't the last man standing playing half the snaps in 3 wide and they can commit to a mentality of running the ball beyond when it's easy and Denard doesn't regress like all the CB's before him and Marquise Cole isn't covering one of the opponents legit weapons and they add a punishing presence to that secondary and we're doing more than safely going through the motions on ST, he may well be proved correct again, as he was last Sunday.

Perfecion is an admirable goal. But you're never going to achieve it. The solution is to have enough talented playmakers to overcome that reality and make just enough plays to overcome their opponents. That is what the teams of 2001-2004 had that the teams of 2007-2011 and 2012 haven't had. Brady is the only constant, but even Joe Montana wouldn't have won 4 if he'd been asked to play that last one without Jerry Rice while fronting a transitioning defense that didn't rank 3rd in points allowed and 4th in yards against.
 
Our success is now determined exclusively by Brady, not due to philosophy but necessity as opposed to the days when it was give and take. The defense isn't winning any games, and everyone knows that. That puts more pressure on the one thing that is working, naturally.

Although one could argue the chicken or the egg because we have passed up quite a few talents in the draft due to a very particular defensive philosophy. We haven't even gotten to the point where a divide in philosophy could come because there hasn't been talent to possibly spread money that would go to Brady out to other players.

Brady would be the first guy to offer to make room if some premier defensive player was waiting for a penny more. In fact, he did just that for Seymour way back when.
 
Just because nobody is perfect does not make anyone immune from criticism. Brady made some poor decisions and throws that contributed to the loss. Ultimately the buck stops on BBs desk, and the coaches did an unusually bad job in preparing for and managing this game. I also think some of the problems with the offense can be attributed to the coaches over-reliance on Brady/lack of faith in the running game when the stakes get high. We have seen this for years with no sign of relief.

On the other hand, if we want to hope for improvement and upgrades, BB and Brady are the last places to look.
 
We'll see how much of a decline he's in next year when he has an even better defense. Can't wait for the Patriots to be SB XLVIII champs, holding that Lombardi in MetLife Stadium!
 
We'll see how much of a decline he's in next year when he has an even better defense. Can't wait for the Patriots to be SB XLVIII champs, holding that Lombardi in MetLife Stadium!

Brady is a much better QB now than he was in 2001, yet they won the SB in 2001. So he could in fact be in decline now and win the Super Bowl next year. Both things could be true at the same time.

(I really hope you're right!!!!!)
 
Our success is now determined exclusively by Brady, not due to philosophy but necessity as opposed to the days when it was give and take. The defense isn't winning any games, and everyone knows that. That puts more pressure on the one thing that is working, naturally.

I just don't get this paragraph. 4 of Brady's 5 worst performances in the regular season overlap with his 5 highest PAs, the 5th one is only one pass shy of making the list. They never broke 30 runs in those games despite the fact that all but the SF game were close. How is that not a philosophy problem? When you insistently air it out when it isn't working you aren't giving the other parts of the team a chance to win the game because the RBs don't get to do their job, the defense gets trapped on the field, and more likely than not there's going to be some back breaking TOs.
 
They come up short on functional talent and suddenly Brady is among the GOAT...When Brady says he doesn't care how they win as long as they do I believe him. He's the most adaptable QB on the planet. He's done it with less and with more. He's done it with his arm and handing off to running backs who were capable of running even when they knew it was coming. What he's been unable to do is win it all with one hand tied behind his back as Bedard stated when he also doesn't have a defense capable of closing out a game.

BTW if you're going to critique him you could start by getting his name right. As PatsFanInVA hints, the F in abreviated references to Thomas Edward Patrick Brady doesn't stand for Francis...

One of your most inane efforts to date.

And for those who think he makes too much, his present deal averages $15.8M per, same as Eli and less than what Manning ($19M) and Brees ($20M) average. And a lot less than the $20M dead cap charge Bill amassed this season. Bill used to say that a (as in any) franchise QB shouldn't take up more than 12% of the cap. Of course Brady was making minimum when he won his first ring as a 6th round draft pick. His second contract averaged $6M per agaiinst a cap that was $72M at the time. The 2005 deal 2 rings later and 2 years early that was the teams idea averaged $10M against a cap that was $113M. His present deal entered into in an uncapped 2010 averages $15.8M against a midpoint $128M cap and accounts for roughly a couple of hundred grand more than Belichick's ideal...

Talent and playmakers are the problem. Not because they can't afford them, but because they have failed to locate them or those they did have proved to be not durable or consistent performers when it matters most. Last off season Belichick tasked McD with self scouting this offense and coming up with a solution to the problem that had dogged it since 2007. What to so when the two top targets were taken away whether by an opponents defense or injury so the offense could still perform. His answer was to add Lloyd, experiment with Edelman for speed, and amass depth behind the two TE's while balancing the run pass ratio (which mind you failed to exist in 2007 because he was clinging to Maroney and in 2011 because he benched his rookies for the playoffs). Trouble is that didn't work, either. Because they still couldn't run against Baltimore's nickle, they appeared determined not to feature Vereen running or receiving away from the Ravens strength, the backup TE's in the final analysis were all jags, Lloyd wasn't as productive as anticipated and Edelman was on the shelf again by mid season.

This team operates on a margin. But that has little or nothing to do with Brady's ego or psyche or contract. They inked 2 TE's entering their third season to contracts that combined average $15M per. They are paying their LG and top LB and NT/DT deals that combined average $25M per. No TE or OL or LB here ever approached that level of elite top 5 or even top 10 deal on Belichick's watch even while performing at an elite level for years. I doubt Tedy or Vrabes ever cracked the top 20 and Rodney once pointed out neither did he. Bill has finally belatedly shifted his focus on defense to drafting youth and speed into what had been an empty pipeline for too long. Even went so far as to make an inseason trade to shore up a secondary that remaind abyssmal. His efforts continue to meet with mixed results. And unfortunate durability issues. That side of the ball remains a too long neglected work in progress that too little too late couldn't save. 9th in points allowed but 26th in yards allowed. A good deal of their improvement has revolved around turnover differential. We saw little of that effect in the post season. They got no pressure on Flacco and forced no turnovers and they even managed to get gashed a bit on the ground to the tune of 9 first downs.

Are players responsible individually for their own execution, you betcha. But when almost everyone has a bad day at the office it's time to look beyond the individual battles to coaching, game planning and ultimately roster construction. You'll never have all pros at every position. That's where scheme can be a difference maker. But absent sufficient talent and a lucky break here and there, scheme alone all to often becomes little more than failed theory.

Whether or not they game plan and playcall to run the ball has less to do with Brady than it does with the core faith the coaching staff has (not) in it's backs and OL to get the job done on the ground. And whether or not the passing game succeeds has less to do with the QB's performance or drive (love how he's either too intense or not intense enough depending on critic) than it does with coming up short on playmaking, functional options to ttarget. His top target was on the shelf again, his 3 best remaining targets were making physical and mental mistakes throughout and his 4th option was Deion Branch...with Vereen a distant 5th. His backs were averaging 3.9 ypc against a nickle defense before the lead back got Pollarded and lost the ball in the process. Frankly, I don't know what else he was supposed to do.

I believe the Ravens were in everyone's heads where they have resided since 2010, and the game plan and mindset ultimately the execution on both sides of the ball suffered as a result. Despite what they say, guys aren't stupid and they know they are playing on a razor thin margin. Most of which traces back to decisions made above their paygrade over the last several seasons. Poor drafting and development not to mention a reluctance to draft for certain positions coupled with poor choices in FA. That's what has dogged them since 2007. It's led to insufficient pass rush, a heartattack inducing secondary, and lack of explosive playmakers on both sides of the ball as well as on ST. Lose a couple of key cogs in that wheel as they seemingly do every playoff season when you're facing increasingly stiffer competition and you have the recipe for arriving there only to come up short. Teams on a tight margin either play tight or roll the dice and throw caution to the wind.

That's the parable. Maybe you should retitle this thread The Mortality of Billy Bob Belichick's System. Or take the stand Felger has that the law of averages dictates that a team that consistently knocks on the door is bound to break it down sooner or later. The key is adding a few more cogs to the wheel so when they next knock on that door they won't again be rolling on the mickey mouse spare. If Gronknandez or whatever backs it up can be counted on and Deion Branch isn't the last man standing playing half the snaps in 3 wide and they can commit to a mentality of running the ball beyond when it's easy and Denard doesn't regress like all the CB's before him and Marquise Cole isn't covering one of the opponents legit weapons and they add a punishing presence to that secondary and we're doing more than safely going through the motions on ST, he may well be proved correct again, as he was last Sunday.

I'm not sure anywhere in my OP that I criticized Brady. I never said that he was selfish, or that he wanted to be the guy who carried the team, or that he cared about anything other than winning. I did suggest that the Pats have evolved into a team that's put more and more on Brady's shoulders and expected him to perform miracles, and that that may not be the road to future Lombardi trophies.

Perfecion is an admirable goal. But you're never going to achieve it. The solution is to have enough talented playmakers to overcome that reality and make just enough plays to overcome their opponents. That is what the teams of 2001-2004 had that the teams of 2007-2011 and 2012 haven't had. Brady is the only constant, but even Joe Montana wouldn't have won 4 if he'd been asked to play that last one without Jerry Rice while fronting a transitioning defense that didn't rank 3rd in points allowed and 4th in yards against.

I don't think this is particularly different from what I was saying in the OP. I'm certainly not blaming Brady for carrying the load when there wasn't enough talent around him, or when other guys didn't step up. But I don't think that that will realistically be the path to more Super Bowls. I completely agree that "the solution is to have enough talented playmakers to overcome that reality and make just enough plays to overcome their opponents". We've added a lot more playmakers, but they certainly haven't reached the point of making the key plays when they've had to over the past several years. Unless that changes, I don't think the long term result is going to change very much.
 
I love the people who are ready to crucify Brady, and these are generally the ones who say, "get rid of this guy" and when asked who to replace said guy with usually offer up, "I don't know, but they have to get someone." I'm not directing this at mayo because he was looking to make more of a constructive discussion about the overall team. My comment is more directed to some of the things I heard this afternoon in talk radio that seems to be gaining steam even among a couple of people in here.

When Brady starts turning the ball over repeatedly in big situations with poor throws and bad reads on a consistent basis, I'll begin to consider that maybe he's starting to lose it. He's thrown fewer interceptions in a season every year than he did back in 2005 (despite more attempts starting in 2007 and every year after that), and has also thrown single digit picks in two out of the last three seasons - including this year.

They lost because they don't have depth at key times to sustain an injury and were undermanned, with Branch the issue on the offensive side of the ball (because they were without both Gronk and Edelman) and obviously secondary problems when they lost Talib and the loss of Love - which was also a bigger issue than some people are making it out to be. Needless to say I'd remove Brady from the discussion for those who are trying to focus on what changes need to be made for next year.

Let's face it - he's a guy who can make something out of a bunch of guys who "are good but not great" if they're not able to keep Welker - and either way right now they need more mid tier guys who can run just routes and get open. I'm over being O.K. with some of the veteran retreads who are exposed as the roster diminishes when guys drop due to injuries. They need to get younger and start focusing on guys in their late 20's instead of their 30's, or draft someone in the later rounds and begin developing them. These problems can be overlooked during the regular season but when you start facing the Baltimore's and the Giants of the world, they're left without enough quality targets to overcome them.

If nothing else, that's the one key thing that needs to be addressed over the offseason on the offensive side of the ball. If they can't have "great", then they at least need guys who are decent and consistent and can win one-on-one match-ups. I mean after all, if they can't get open, it doesn't matter if it's Brady or someone else back there. And that killed them in that final game - especially after Ridley went down and they became one-dimensional.
 
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I love the people who are ready to crucify Brady, and these are generally the ones who say, "get rid of this guy" and when asked who to replace said guy with usually offer up, "I don't know, but they have to get someone." I'm not directing this at mayo because he was looking to make more of a constructive discussion about the overall team. My comment is more directed to some of the things I heard this afternoon in talk radio that seems to be gaining steam even among a couple of people in here.

When Brady starts turning the ball over repeatedly in big situations with poor throws and bad reads on a consistent basis, I'll begin to consider that maybe he's starting to lose it. He's thrown fewer interceptions in a season every year than he did back in 2005 (despite more attempts starting in 2007 and every year after that), and has also thrown single digit picks in two out of the last three seasons - including this year.

They lost because they don't have depth at key times to sustain an injury and were undermanned, with Branch the issue on the offensive side of the ball (because they were without both Gronk and Edelman) and obviously secondary problems when they lost Talib and the loss of Love - which was also a bigger issue than some people are making it out to be. Needless to say I'd remove Brady from the discussion for those who are trying to focus on what changes need to be made for next year.

Let's face it - he's a guy who can make something out of a bunch of guys who "are good but not great" if they're not able to keep Welker - and either way right now they need more mid tier guys who can run just routes and get open. I'm over being O.K. with some of the veteran retreads who are exposed as the roster diminishes when guys drop due to injuries. They need to get younger and start focusing on guys in their late 20's instead of their 30's, or draft someone in the later rounds and begin developing them. These problems can be overlooked during the regular season but when you start facing the Baltimore's and the Giants of the world, they're left without enough quality targets to overcome them.

If nothing else, that's the one key thing that needs to be addressed over the offseason on the offensive side of the ball. If they can't have "great", then they at least need guys who are decent and consistent and can win one-on-one match-ups. I mean after all, if they can't get open, it doesn't matter if it's Brady or someone else back there. And that killed them in that final game - especially after Ridley went down and they became one-dimensional.

Getting rid of Brady would be lunacy. Whether he's "in decline" or not, he's still one of the top 3 QBs in the league and one of the best of all time. This thread was NOT intended to take shots at Brady, but rather, to constructively explore whether the team needed to focus less on how Brady can help carry the team to a Super Bowl and more on how the team can help carry Brady to a Super Bowl.
 
Getting rid of Brady would be lunacy. Whether he's "in decline" or not, he's still one of the top 3 QBs in the league and one of the best of all time. This thread was NOT intended to take shots at Brady, but rather, to constructively explore whether the team needed to focus less on how Brady can help carry the team to a Super Bowl and more on how the team can help carry Brady to a Super Bowl.

As I mentioned I know you what you were trying to accomplish, so no worries. As I said it was hearing some of the buzz starting both here and on air that's got me a little riled up. I didn't want to start a thread about it and saw there were enough people hinting it here that it warranted being said :)

They need deeper talent and the end of the depth chart is an area that needs to be addressed. They need to look at each of those spots and say, "can this guy play effectively if we need him in the postseason or in the Super Bowl?" because if history is any indication, they're going to be without someone. So as I said, they need to make sure they at least have guys who can get separation and give Brady a chance when it really comes down to it against good defenses. Good teams make the playoffs and the better ones are the ones left standing in those final games - and they need to be able to match-up better against them if they're without key guys when it matters.
 
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