Soloman: Pats like Jackson and Huff

[JoeSixPat]

If you leave out 2000, when Belichick and Pioli had little time to develope their draft effort, and start with 2001, ALL of the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks are still on the roster and 9 or 11 of them are starters out of 14 picks. When you get to the 4th round, it drops off - just 4 out of 9 still with the team. But Jarvis Green and Asante Samuel are pretty important players for the Pats. The Pats are doing exceptionally well with their 1st thru 3rd round picks and pretty decent with the 4th round.

!st round: ALL 6 on the team and ALL starters: Seymour, Warren, Graham, Wilfork, Watson, Graham.

2nd round: ALL 5 on the team and 3 starters: Wilson, Branch, Light and Bethel Johnson and Marquise Hill.

3rd round: Only 3 picks but all 3 still on the team. Potentially two starters in the future: Hobbs, Kaczur, and Gus Scott. Obviously Hobbs and Kaczur were starters with the injuries last year.

4th round: Gets MUCH more problematic. That's why I say rounds 1 thru 3 are so crucial. Only 4 out of 9 still on the roster - less than 50%. But, 4th round is still important. Jarvis Green and Asante Samuel are important players. Klecko and Sanders are perhaps borderline - but there have been any number of borderline players who became really important contributors later. Players who didn't work out: Davey, Cobb, Holloway, Kenyatta Jones, and Reid.

Right - and moving up to 13 would probably require us to give up a 3rd and a 4th or 5th rounder, so its not "way too expensive" by any stretch of the imagination.

Indeed most of the "value" in such a trade comes from the 3rd round draft pick - but if you've got to give up something of value if you want to get something of value.

And as you pointed out, history suggests that its a 50/50 shot that a 4th round pick will pan out. How many of BB's #1 draft picks have been busts? How has he done when he's had picks higher than #21?

So is it "too expensive" to give up a few "maybes" for a "sure thing"? I'd say not.

 

[flutie2phelan]

Thanks for those facts, a-bee!

 

[HEY BRO! WHAT UP?]

I'd wet my pants if we got Jackson

 

[arrellbee]

Right - and moving up to 13 would probably require us to give up a 3rd and a 4th or 5th rounder, so its not "way too expensive" by any stretch of the imagination.

Indeed most of the "value" in such a trade comes from the 3rd round draft pick - but if you've got to give up something of value if you want to get something of value.

And as you pointed out, history suggests that its a 50/50 shot that a 4th round pick will pan out. How many of BB's #1 draft picks have been busts? How has he done when he's had picks higher than #21?

So is it "too expensive" to give up a few "maybes" for a "sure thing"? I'd say not.

We are certainly pretty much on the same page.

Round 1 -- 21st -- 800
Round 2 -- 20th -- 380
Round 3 -- 11th -- 215
Round 3 -- 22nd -- 160
Round 4 -- 9th -- 84
Round 4 -- 21st -- 60
Round 5 -- 3rd -- 39.5
Round 5 -- 20th -- 32.2 gone
Round 6 -- 22nd -- 18.6
Round 6 -- 36th -- 14.6 - untradeable
Round 6 -- 37th -- 14.6 - untradeable
Round 7 -- 21st -- 6.2

We know that Belichick will trade up if he sees what he regards as a very strong key contributor. No argument there. But I am not very sure that there is anyone this year that he would regard as a 'sure' enough pick or of such significant contribution that he would give up a high 3rd round pick - he certainly figures to get a solid player and even perhaps a starter in that position. And even if he gives up the 3rd round 11th pick, he can only move up to maybe 16th - and when he looks at the board and the teams picking between 16 and 21, he may figure to get 'the' or 'a' player he wants anyway. And if he gives up 3rd round 11th pick and the 4th round 9th pick, he may only get to 1st round 14th pick. I'm not sure he would give up that high a 3rd round pick and a high 4th round pick just to move up 7 places. Just a thought.

Going along with what you are saying, he might give up the bottom 4th-21st round pick and the 5th-3rd round pick to move up 3 spots in the 1st round to 18th. That doesn't seem to give up too much.

I would think it would also make sense to consider trading the 4th-21st, the 5th-3rd, and 6th-22nd to get one slot at the very top of round 4 or bottom of round 3.

Only a few days to find out for real !!

 

[JoeSixPat]

We are certainly pretty much on the same page.

Going along with what you are saying, he might give up the bottom 4th-21st round pick and the 5th-3rd round pick to move up 3 spots in the 1st round to 18th. That doesn't seem to give up too much.

Yup - at 18 we might be able to grab a sliding WR - maybe even Jackson. Huff requires giving up more but I think the draft value chart is right on in equating value, making what we would have to give up a "fair" trade to get to 13.

A high 3rd round pick is likely a quality depth player - potential future starter - but there are no sure things in the 3rd round.

actually I think that most would feel pretty confident that even given his track record, BB is likely to find quality in the 4th round too.

 

[PatsFan37]

Keep your pads low and your picks lower

!st round: ALL 6 on the team and ALL starters: Seymour, Warren, Graham, Wilfork, Watson, Graham.

That Graham fellow really gets around. Seriously, though, the biggest impact players of those five have been or will be Seymour, Wilfork, and Watson. Two of the three came late in the first round, therefore costing much less cap space than the high first-round picks. Only one of those high first-round picks became a true superstar and it certainly wasn't obvious at the time.

Moving up in the first round doesn't buy a better guarantee of quality, all breathless assurances aside. High first round is, however, guaranteed to cost more in picks and cap.

Low first round is one of the best places to choose. I'd stay put or move up one or two spots to get a particular guy.

 

[Crazy Patriot Guy]

Good posts arrellbe. Not that it changes the proof of our success on Day 1 of drafts, you did miss one player that is no longer with us, 2001 3rd rounder Brock Willliams.

Even if we had to spend what a lot of fans would think is too much, I would be very happy to see us move up and take Huff if that is who the team really wants.

I'm looking at it this way. The team has been incredible at picking 1st rounders under Belichick. An all-pro DL, two very good DL, two very good TEs and a G that looked great last year and will only get better. They've been golden with their 1st rounders. 4 of those 6 picks were at 21 or later. We landed studs that late in the 1st round. If they think staying put and taking another one isn't good enough because of a certain player they want to move up for, then I'm incredibly confident in that player's ability considering this team's track record in the 1st round as mentioned.

 

[arrellbee]

Good posts arrellbee. Not that it changes the proof of our success on Day 1 of drafts, you did miss one player that is no longer with us, 2001 3rd rounder Brock Willliams.

Thanks much !! I had missed him - now have added him to my tracking spread sheet. Really appreciate the info !

 

[arrellbee]

!st round: ALL 6 on the team and ALL starters: Seymour, Warren, Graham, Wilfork, Watson, Graham.

That Graham fellow really gets around.

Thanks for catching that. I was really asleep at the switch. I edited to change Graham to Mankins.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

If you leave out 2000, when Belichick and Pioli had little time to develope their draft effort, and start with 2001, ALL of the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks are still on the roster and 9 or 11 of them are starters out of 14 picks. When you get to the 4th round, it drops off - just 4 out of 9 still with the team. But Jarvis Green and Asante Samuel are pretty important players for the Pats. The Pats are doing exceptionally well with their 1st thru 3rd round picks and pretty decent with the 4th round.

!st round: ALL 6 on the team and ALL starters: Seymour, Warren, Graham, Wilfork, Watson, Mankins.

2nd round: ALL 5 on the team and 3 starters: Wilson, Branch, Light and Bethel Johnson and Marquise Hill.

3rd round: Only 4 picks but 3 are still on the team. Potentially two starters in the future: Hobbs, Kaczur, and Gus Scott. Obviously Hobbs and Kaczur were starters with the injuries last year. Brock Williams no longer on roster.

4th round: Gets MUCH more problematic. That's why I say rounds 1 thru 3 are so crucial. Only 4 out of 9 still on the roster - less than 50%. But, 4th round is still important. Jarvis Green and Asante Samuel are important players. Klecko and Sanders are perhaps borderline - but there have been any number of borderline players who became really important contributors later. Players who didn't work out: Davey, Cobb, Holloway, Kenyatta Jones, and Reid.

Edit: Thanks to Crazy Patriot Guy - corrected 3rd round - Brock Williams was drafted in 2001 and I had missed him.

Edit: Thanks to PatsFan37 - corrected 1st round - had listed Graham twice and left out Mankins - duhhh.

Well done! As a correction in perception, I wouldn't consider Davey a bust, you got a Reserve QB for 3 years who did his job well in practice where you want your Reserve QB playing. Cassell pushed him off the roster by having more upside and being a lot cheaper - that he's a better player shouldn't be a negative for Davey as a 4th round pick. He may not be playing, but Davey gave the team full value for a 4th rounder. I also don't consider Dexter a bust, he played well his rookie year, and I include the TD over his head in the Super Bowl while one-on-one with a much faster WR. Mangini didn't get reamed out for nothing, there was a coaching error that set Dexter up. He also got pushed off the roster by another draft pick who was an upgrade, what he gave us in Special Teams earned him a slot with the Colts, so he has value for a lesser club .

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

That Graham fellow really gets around. Seriously, though, the biggest impact players of those five have been or will be Seymour, Wilfork, and Watson. Two of the three came late in the first round, therefore costing much less cap space than the high first-round picks. Only one of those high first-round picks became a true superstar and it certainly wasn't obvious at the time.

Moving up in the first round doesn't buy a better guarantee of quality, all breathless assurances aside. High first round is, however, guaranteed to cost more in picks and cap.

Low first round is one of the best places to choose. I'd stay put or move up one or two spots to get a particular guy.

You have five impact players partner, Watson is more big play, but Graham is a more consistent every down player and still the best blocker on the team, Light and Co. included. Warren was the anchor for the DL last season, not to take anything away from Sey or Vince, but for 18 games Ty was the man in 12 or better.

Has your workload gotten any lighter yet?

 

[big mike]

trade 21 and top 3 for 13....

trade 13 and 2nd rounder for a pick ahead of the lions....

1. Michael Huff

3. Martin Nance
4. Fred Matua
4. Jeff Webb
5. Kai Parham
6. Steve Fifita
6. Dwayne Slay
6. Josh Houston
7. Quinn Sypniewski

That would suck.