PATRIOTS TRAINING CAMP PATRIOTS TRAINING CAMP Day 8 Training Camp Thread- Thursday August 5th

[TheRainMaker]

By what metric are NFL teams "better off" buying a "top ten" receiver as their #1?

• 1. Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins: $27.3 million
• 2. Falcons WR Julio Jones: $22 million (Now with Tennessee)
• 3. Chargers WR Keenan Allen: $20 million
• 4. Cowboys WR Amari Cooper: $20 million
• 5. Saints WR Michael Thomas: $19.3 million
• 6. Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill: $18 million
• 6. Browns WR Odell Beckham Jr.: $18 million
• 6. Giants WR Kenny Golladay: $18 million
• 9. Bears WR Allen Robinson: $17.9 million
• 10. Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett: $17.3 million

So the average is $20M. And the wins of those same teams?

Most Total NFL Wins Last 5 Years | StatMuse

Between December 7, 2018 and December 7, 2023, the Kansas City Chiefs have the most wins by a team, with 62 wins.

www.statmuse.com

Avg wins per season of teams with top ten WRs would then be (I left Jones on the Falcons even though I know he's on the Titans now - Texans/Cardinals for Hopkins was 39 vs 31 so you could add almost a quarter of a win per season to the below #):

8.24 wins per season (it's 8.4 if I use Texans wins)

In 2020, the top ten WRs by yards were exactly two of those guys:

NFL.com | Official Site of the National Football League

The official source for NFL news, video highlights, fantasy football, game-day coverage, schedules, stats, scores and more.

www.nfl.com

Hill
Hopkins

By total receptions it's just one:

Wide Receiver WR Stats Cheat Sheet NFL Current Season Statistics

Rank NFL wide receivers by Current Season Statistics - receiving yards per game, targets per game, catches per game, etc

fantasyfootballers.org

Hopkins

Same site - by reception/yards per game (probably the better metric of impact in a season - and even that top 10 has only a couple players on perennial winning franchises):

Hopkins
Jones
Hill

So given that data (and there has to be some correlation of salary to stats...there is a salary cap in the NFL) what it looks like that statement above is saying is that nowadays you're better off with Tyreek Hill because he's the ONLY one that is paid like a #1, produces like a #1, and actually is on a consistently winning team (the ultimate metric to most).

Also not measured is that the top statistical WRs are likely that way not because of "skill" alone, but because their teams tend towards being behind and therefore have to throw more to try and come back and a lot of times against prevent "give up receptions/yards for clock" defensive alignments.

So I'll close with the same question I opened with - what is the reason why it's better to use limited salary cap space for a "#1 WR" nowadays and how (without hindsight) can one know beyond a shadow of a doubt that WR "is"/"will be" a consistent #1?

Aside from Cooper, take any of those WR's on a rookie deal with the Pats and they win at least one Super Bowl.

 

[Patsgofor4]

Not taking the vaccine has nothing to do with conspiracy theories or anti-science. The Scientist that invented the mRNA technology even claims that it shouldn't be used the way they are doing it.
I have already had it. I have antibodies that are far superior to any vaccine. That is science. Especially when the mRNA "vaccine" does not prevent you from contracting or spreading the virus.

Yeah I would do a little more research into that “scientist (who) invented the mRNA technique”, and while you’re at it stay off of the right wing websites where are you heard about him.

Also, you must have learned your information about post-Covid antibodies versus the mRNA vaccine immune response from the same ill-informed source, because your “science” is wrong. A super new concept now exists called mutation, which leads to what some super smart scientists refer to as “variants” of the original virus.

How Immunity Generated from COVID-19 Vaccines Differs from an Infection

A key issue as we move closer to ending the pandemic is determining more precisely how long people exposed to SARS-CoV-2, the COVID-19 virus, will make neutralizing antibodies against this dangerou…

directorsblog.nih.gov

By closely examining the results, the researchers uncovered important differences between acquired immunity in people who’d been vaccinated and unvaccinated people who’d been previously infected with SARS-CoV-2. Specifically, antibodies elicited by the mRNA vaccine were more focused to the RBD compared to antibodies elicited by an infection, which more often targeted other portions of the spike protein. Importantly, the vaccine-elicited antibodies targeted a broader range of places on the RBD than those elicited by natural infection.

These findings suggest that natural immunity and vaccine-generated immunity to SARS-CoV-2 will differ in how they recognize new viral variants. What’s more, antibodies acquired with the help of a vaccine may be more likely to target new SARS-CoV-2 variants potently, even when the variants carry new mutations in the RBD.

Maybe post this link the next time you log on to r/MAGA.

 

[Deus Irae]

If Dugger breaks out, Pats easily have the best secondary in the NFL and it's not close.

PFF disagrees

 

[TheRainMaker]

PFF disagrees

I saw that earlier and I don't agree with them on that.

 

[Deus Irae]

I saw that earlier and I don't agree with them on that.

I'm not a PFF guy, and haven't been for a long time, but I thought it might help spur discussion.

 

[TheRainMaker]

I'm not a PFF guy, and haven't been for a long time, but I thought it might help spur discussion.

Rankings are fun to read, but they lost me when ranking Adoree Jackson, who was a massive bust in Tenn, over JC Jackson. The analysis on him makes you ask what games are they watching?

 

[DropKickFlutie]

That's his game. Harry is a big body receiver who should be rock solid in the red area. I believe missing half of a season his rookie year and playing with a QB who runs it in at the goal line were significant reasons as to why Harry hasn't seen much action. In 2019, the target split was 41/24 in Meyers's favor and in 2020 it was 81/57 as well. 122/81 over two seasons.

Last year, Harry seemed to get dinged coming out of the BYE week and did nothing in the Niners, @Bills, and @Jets games.

I don't question that Meyers has been by far the better player, but I am saying...let's see what Harry can do before we write him off completely.

I don't see what's the point. We have too many good pass catchers now that forcing a 8ypc target to Harry is a bad playcall. There is almost no scenario where it makes sense to throw it to a 50% catch rate, 9 yards per catch WR compared to Meyers or Bourne or Agholor or Smith or Henry or James White.

.

 

[PScottman]

Aside from Cooper, take any of those WR's on a rookie deal with the Pats and they win at least one Super Bowl.

This year? Or in the past? The future?

This year, the massive question mark at QB makes that prediction pretty bold. The team is thin at swing tackle too - similar to KC, if the tackles are out...(how much confidence is there in Wynn's ability to stay healthy?). I'm not sure its that cut and dried a hypothetical. It easily elevates them into the playoff tier on paper but unequivocally stating a win is removal of any injuries, fluke, weather, benching, (BB has never benched a player in a key game before right?), pandemic.

In the past, it depends upon which team specifically is being cited. For many years - sure that's a pretty easy call given how close many Patriot teams were to that goal, but the factor (again) is what do you take away from those same teams (even on a rookie deal and also who was not drafted instead) and the additional assumption is there are no injuries, no "Harry's" with crap attitude, etc. Most likely you're right, because there's no need to prove the negative, just the "what already happened" with a known set of statistics.

That said, in hypotheticals, I would assume the easy answer is for the needed draft pick with which to select said rookie is "just take away the bust pick". Knowing now which ones those were makes that decision pretty easy and convenient. Some of the top ten WRs are really high picks too which the Pats simply haven't had (or again would have to trade away likely significant assets to move up to get).

In the future, sure, why not? I like the team they've built's chances for the next couple years assuming that Mac is the real deal, they replace Gilmore with another #1 shutdown CB, they replace HT's clutch gene and ability to play all over the front seven and McCourty's steady consistency and top end speed (those are all as easily replaced as that #1 WR...right?).

Controlling all the variables and unknowns places such discussion out of reality because such control doesn't exist. It's the very hindsight which I consistently comment in the contrary to (or in the future state - foresight).