OT- How good is Peyton Manning all time?

[BlacknGold77]

What is the Patriots system? No one seems to be able to define it. Josh McDaniels couldn't bring it with him to St. Louis or Denver. Charlie Weis couldn't bring it with him to Notre Dame. Bill O'Brien is unable to run it in Houston.

Matt Cassel ran it in 2008...and had a passer rating roughly 30 points lower than Brady. The Patriots, in that season, (a) missed the playoffs for the only time in the last 14 seasons, and (b) scored over 21 points in only 8 of 16 games.

I would like to know specifically what the system is. I don't believe these offensive schemes are incredibly arcane and impossible to explain. The NFL is a copycat league; why isn't anyone else running it?

I used to hear about the system in 2003-04 and about how the quarterback has it easy and guys like Troy Brown, David Givens, and Deion Branch were very underrated, and that Charlie Weis is the secret behind Brady's success. Then the offense changed to a 5-WR spread in 2007 under Josh McDaniels. Then a 2-TE offense under Bill O'Brien. And now a complete chameleon assimilating all of these different personnel groupings.

No coach has ever left New England and successfully coached up a quarterback to make him elite.

Belichick is a great coach. Brady is the reason why the offense is always elite.

the system is fairly straight forward...

1. have a high level of flexibility in formations and personel to keep the defense off balance
2. allow the play/routes to change based on the pre-snap read
3. need a QB and receivers who are able to read the defense and alter the routes accordingly
4. heavily attack the seams and middle with the passing game
5. need to be able to quickly go through the reads as well as throw to spots anticipating the receiver. also know primary targets based off of the defense pre snap. then need to deliver accurate mid range throws.
6. need to be able to heavily change up the game plan, speed, type of plays mutliple times during the game to keep the defense off balance.

The reason McDaniels and Weis failed is the QBs they had. You need the highly intelligent, super computer QB like Brady to make the system work. You need a QB that can expertly read defenses, tirelessly prepares to that everything is instinct and time to think isnt needed and can make the throws.

It's like a Formula 1 race car. If you put an average joe in it and let them loose on a track its going to be a disaster and the car will look slow, poorly handling, etc. The car is perfect, the issue is the driver. Thats why McDaniels and Weis failed outside NE.

 

[Nehalem]

2013 was crazy, lost the idiot Ahern, lost Welker, Gronk only played 6 games, Amendola was injured, Vereen was injured(wearing a cast 2nd half of season), relying on mostly Jules in his 1st full season and a couple of rookies.

Somehow managed 12 wins, got to the AFCCG and the offense was ranked 3rd in scoring. They miss the PO's by a wide margin without TB that year imo.

The important stat you are missing is that the defense was #10 in PA and #26 in yards. And without Brady running the offense the defense would probably rank worse(at least in points) due to worse field. So this wasn't like the 2016 Texans riding an elite defense with a sucktastic Osweiler offense.

Basically in 2013 Brady dragged a below average defense and corpse of an offense to the AFCCG.

Compare that to 2015, where Rodgers, with an at least equivalent defense(12PA/15yards) couldn't even win their division when he lost a single WR.

 

[zydecochris]

My top 10 list only includes QBs who played in the superbowl era. I go back and forth on it but right now...

#1 Brady
#2 Montana
#3 Staubach
#4 Unitas
- Gap -
#5 Young
#6 Elway
#7 Starr

Generally these are guys I always put over Manning.

After that i go back and forth between Brees, Rodgers and a few others to fill it out.

Great list. I'm glad to see you put Staubach so high. Rather than super bowl wins or regular season excellence, to stir the pot a bit I would argue that the true measure of greatness was "who did the most with the least", especially on the biggest stages in the post season. By that measure, Brady is hands-down #1 IMHO, it is remarkable what Brady managed to do when surrounded by some fairly pedestrian teams, and without the benefit of playing in a dome (like P. Manning or Brees).

According to my "who did the most with the least" rating I would probably actually put Staubach on par with Montana, Staubach played with some great players but nothing like the teams that surrounded Montana, and Staubach always seemed to be able to make the big play when needed and he was a fabulous leader. I guess I wouldn't put Unitas quite so high, I still remember Super Bowl V where Unitas was knocked out and the Colts were so good that they still beat the Cowboys with Earl Morrall at QB. Starr played on some dominant teams but it is hard to discount what a great winner he was.

My "doing the most with the least" list elevates Brees (who has played on some lousy teams) and Rodgers (also some non-dominant teams) a bit and sends P. Manning down a bit (who played in a dome with some tremendous offensive players). My own slight variant of your list would be:

#1 Brady
#2 / #3 Staubach / Montana

-Gap-

#4 Starr
#5 Unitas
#6 Elway
#7 Young
#8 Rodgers
#9 Brees
#10 P. Manning

 

[zydecochris]

In the end, it still comes down to a top 8 (no particular order),

Brady
Montana
Starr
Unitas
Graham
Young
Staubach
Baugh

and then the rest.

The Elway/Favre/Manning/Bradshaw/etc... arguing starts at #9.

Nice list Deus, although I would put Staubach in the top three because he played on less dominant teams than Montana and Starr. I can't speak to Graham and Baugh, I never saw them.

 

[BobDigital]

In the end, it still comes down to a top 8 (no particular order),

Brady
Montana
Starr
Unitas
Graham
Young
Staubach
Baugh

and then the rest.

The Elway/Favre/Manning/Bradshaw/etc... arguing starts at #9.

I have seen you list these 8 again and again. The only issue I have is I personally have no basis to measure how good Graham and Baugh are. Talking about Unitas/Starr is hard enough but at least we have a decent amount of film on them and they played some in the super bowl era. Also it was just such a different game back then. I just have trouble going back to a time before the super bowl era and trying to compare them.

We have nearly the same top 6 though I give Elway a bit more credit then you as feeling like he is automatically in that company.

 

[sean10mm]

A natural cut-off point is probably before 1978 vs. 1978+, when the first REALLY BIG opening up of the passing game rules happened since the forward pass was put in place. After the rules changes, Roger Staubach put up bigger passing numbers in the last 70s than Troy Aikman did in the mid 90s, it was that big a deal.

 

[Deus Irae]

I have seen you list these 8 again and again. The only issue I have is I personally have no basis to measure how good Graham and Baugh are. Talking about Unitas/Starr is hard enough but at least we have a decent amount of film on them and they played some in the super bowl era.

At some point, we have to accept data and anecdotes, and do things we despise (look at comparisons to others of the time without being able to look at transitional players, rely way too heavily on not-very-comparable stats, etc...). We're not quite flying blind, though we're pretty close, but it's all we've got.

Also it was just such a different game back then. I just have trouble going back to a time before the super bowl era and trying to compare them.

That's why I prefer limiting the comparisons to the SB era, but I didn't make the rules this time (How good is Peyton Manning all time?).

 

[RobertWeathers]

A natural cut-off point is probably before 1978 vs. 1978+, when the first REALLY BIG opening up of the passing game rules happened since the forward pass was put in place. After the rules changes, Roger Staubach put up bigger passing numbers in the last 70s than Troy Aikman did in the mid 90s, it was that big a deal.

Seems like passing #s took another jump in the mid/late 2000s

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Modern Era

Brady
Montana
Young
Manning
Favre
Marino
Elway
Brees
Rodgers
Aikman

You mean "Super Bowl Era," because otherwise, you have to include Starr and Unitas as they were both part of what most consider the "Modern Era." Also, your list has a decided "recency bias," as there is no way that Aikman belongs ahead of Staubach.

Many mediots and self-anointed experts are very loose with how they define the Modern Era. However, for most who know what they are talking about, it begins either with the 1958 NFL Championship Game or in 1945, when Bert Bell became Commissioner; by the latter measure, Sammy Baugh straddled the pre-Modern and Modern eras and would have to be considered. For my money, the Modern Era started in 1945.

So, here's my list...after a little thought. Like others, I'm not smart enough nor have I done the research to rank them all, beyond the top two, Brady and Montana, #1 and #2.

Brady
Montana

Then a second tier of five true greats in alphabetical order:
Baugh
Graham
Starr
Staubach
Unitas

A third tier, of seven other greats, just a small rung below, in alphabetical order:
Aikman
Bradshaw
Elway
Favre
Manning
Marino
Young

A fourth group of "Incompletes," who could go in either the second or third tier, but would need a miracle to be mentioned with Brady and Montana (other current players like Sherman and Cam could work their way into this group):
Brees
Rodgers

PS: it's tough to leave Sonny Jurgensen and Norm VanBrocklin off this list, but I just don't think they had the same impact on the game.

 

[zydecochris]

You mean "Super Bowl Era," because otherwise, you have to include Starr and Unitas as they were both part of what most consider the "Modern Era." Also, your list has a decided "recency bias," as there is no way that Aikman belongs ahead of Staubach.

Many mediots and self-anointed experts are very loose with how they define the Modern Era. However, for most who know what they are talking about, it begins either with the 1958 NFL Championship Game or in 1945, when Bert Bell became Commissioner; by the latter measure, Sammy Baugh straddled the pre-Modern and Modern eras and would have to be considered. For my money, the Modern Era started in 1945.

So, here's my list...after a little thought. Like others, I'm not smart enough nor have I done the research to rank them all, beyond the top two, Brady and Montana, #1 and #2.

Brady
Montana

Then a second tier of five true greats in alphabetical order:
Baugh
Graham
Starr
Staubach
Unitas

A third tier, of seven other greats, just a small rung below, in alphabetical order:
Aikman
Bradshaw
Elway
Favre
Manning
Marino
Young

A fourth group of "Incompletes," who could go in either the second or third tier, but would need a miracle to be mentioned with Brady and Montana (other current players like Sherman and Cam could work their way into this group):
Brees
Rodgers

PS: it's tough to leave Sonny Jurgensen and Norm VanBrocklin off this list, but I just don't think they had the same impact on the game.

Nice, well thought out post. Your "incomplete" category (that might be able to work into the second tier) is interesting, and original as far as I can tell. I guess I wouldn't see Brees as eventually reaching the second tier, but that is simply because of a personal prejudice, I tend to really downgrade QB's who played a high percentage at indoor stadiums (Brees and Manning), I think it is a giant advantage over those who have to primarily play in the elements like Brady (in the cold) and Montana (with Candlestick's swirling winds).

Again, nice post.

 

[zydecochris]

A natural cut-off point is probably before 1978 vs. 1978+, when the first REALLY BIG opening up of the passing game rules happened since the forward pass was put in place. After the rules changes, Roger Staubach put up bigger passing numbers in the last 70s than Troy Aikman did in the mid 90s, it was that big a deal.

Good point. IMHO, Aikman should not even be mentioned in the same breath as Roger the Dodger, who I would put as #3 after Brady and Montana.

 

[sean10mm]

Good point. IMHO, Aikman should not even be mentioned in the same breath as Roger the Dodger, who I would put as #3 after Brady and Montana.

Staubach was like a more clutch Aaron Rodgers with his combination of passing efficiency, crazy improv plays and scrambling.

 

[zydecochris]

Staubach was like a more clutch Aaron Rodgers with his combination of passing efficiency, crazy improv plays and scrambling.

Great analogy. In addition to being "more clutch", Staubach's leadership skills were also off the charts (although I guess that is part of being "clutch"), certainly on a different level than Rodgers.

 

[Deus Irae]

Seems like passing #s took another jump in the mid/late 2000s

Yeah, if you're going to cut off at 1978, you pretty much also have to cut off at 2004/2005, too.

 

[sean10mm]

Looking at 2004+ QBs it's basically:

1) Brady
2) Brees/Rodgers
3) P. Manning

Peyton is such a playoff dog compared to Brees and Rodgers in terms of passer rating, etc. that I don't think he can be ranked above them just because he hung around forever and had his rotting corpse dragged to a 2nd Super Bowl win. Brees was the guy stuck with the most bad teams for his career between the early Chargers and the late Saints, but his quality of play is unimpeachable and he absolutely killed it on that Super Bowl run. Rodgers lacks comebacks but absolutely killed it on his Super Bowl run too.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

Don't recall any of these conversations about Brady

 

[lurker1965]

Top 20 or 30. Before you wonder why so high, that is damning with faint praise.