Idle Thoughts: 2014 -1.0

[patfanken]

A couple of weeks ago I started writing a post super bowl thread because there were several interesting statistical anomalies that came out of that game that gave rise to some interesting discussion points. However it never seemed to get finished. Now as the combine winds down, there are several interesting topics that are arising concerning the team building aspect of the new season, so it seems like the right time to air some thoughts and opinions.

Disclaimer: I know this is long, even for me, so take your time. its going to be a LONNNNNNGGG off season.

1.A few things at the superbowl that made me go HMMMMMM -

a. We all fell in love with the Seattle pass rush during the game, but its interesting to note that during the regular season the Pats generated more sacks than the Seahawks (48 vs 44) In fact our lowly Pats were 5th in the entire league in sacks. Whodathought

b. Clearly the 2 key differences between Seattle's success and our failure vs Denver was the Pats inability to mount even an occasional pass vs Seattle's seemingly constant pressure on Manning and the lack of TO's

IMHO I have to wonder if the difference in those 2 games was less about the talent on the front 7 and more about the GAME PLAN going into it? And there is a second question that needs to be asked as well, and that's how much our defensive game plan forced to change because of the loss of Talib in the first period, and the early injury to Dennard. The need to protect the CB position could have vastly changed how aggressive BB thought we could be.

The other key difference was obviously the 4 turnovers Seattle got vs the zero we had in our game with the Broncos. At least 3 of TO's the defense forced Manning into, so IMHO they were earned. More on the pass rush later.

c.This game couldn't have gone worse for Manning (which couldn't have thrilled me more, and infinitely added to my enjoyment of the game. BTW- Does that make me a bad person? ), but I couldn't help notice that against the top D in the game, Manning still managed to have a 70% completion rate and nearly 300 yds in passing. So in a game where Manning seemed totally out of sorts, his stat line seemed to tell a different story, and thus made me go hmmmmm.

The lesson here is that while stats are useful to use in our ongoing arguments about this and that, they can also lie, mislead, or in most cases require more information to truly explain the “real story”

d. In the end, despite all the furor, Manning was actually only sacked ONCE. So this leads to question how important are sacks, really, compared with “hurries and hits”. It would be interesting to know where Seattle and the Pats ranked in those 2 categories given how they ranked in just sacks. Again the question needs to be asked. Was it the talent or the game plan?

e. The point I'm trying to get at by all this is to say is its never just a simple issue of how to attack these high flying offenses that are coming down the pike. You can't simply “fix” the problem by adding a few people. The cause and effect is way more complicated than that. Its adding the RIGHT people to “your” system. Its putting the RIGHT game plan at the right time, with many more factors determining just what that game plan is.....at that particular moment. Its having the RIGHT people available at the right time, and its a whole lot more than that

f. This is the time where we all should be showering Pete Carroll with kudos for an innovative and courageous game plan against what was the best offense of our time. It was just as creative and courageous as the one put together in 2001 by BB vs the best offense of THAT time.

Pete was an easy target when he was here and many still don't take him seriously. The fact is that Pete was a good HC when he was here, just not what the team needed at THAT time. He is clearly a better HC now.

g. So in summary I left the superbowl happy that Manning was put in his proper place, but also questioning how you should evaluate your pass rush, the value of certain stats, the kind of players we need to develop to cope with the new offensive realities, and what changes in our basic defensive philosophy we need to make in order to get us over the hump.....or should we change at all?

 

[patfanken]

2.Comments on our off season so far and assorted comments on some of the threads I've read so far.

a. WR's in general – While it seems that this is one of the deepest quality drafts at WR in several years; we do NOT need to waste draft capital adding any WR before the 5th round....or at all IMHO.

Thomkins, Dobson, and even Boyce, all showed flashes of great play during the season, and in my opinion we can look forward to a big 2nd year leap from all of them. The key thing to remember about that trio going into the future is that they all are hard workers, coachable and really want to be great. They are our future at WR until proven otherwise, and nothing they did this past season should cloud that picture.

We have to remember that the game is littered with multitudes of excellent NFL WR's who struggled far worse than our guys did. Michael Crabtree, a top 10 pick had very similar stats to both Thompkins and Dobson his first year, and everyone's new WR superstar, Alshon Jefferey had a far worse first year than both. Writing any of them off after this year is just ignorant, and thinking about adding any rookie WR's who are likely to make any impact in their first year from where we are drafting is just as ignorant. BTW- I'm all for adding some veteran FA's who make cap sense to compete for snaps, but if we simply stayed pat with our top 4 WR's from last season, I'd be fine.

b. Julian Edelman in particular – No one loves him some JE more than me, but he is what he is, a quality NFL WR, who adds value by being one of the best PR's in the game. What he clearly is NOT, is an impact WR who can stretch the field or consistently catch balls in tight coverage. He is NOT Charles Johnson, Julio Jones or AJ Green.

Julian's stats benefited from 3 key elements that really didn't have anything to do with his abilities – first, he was healthy. Second, he was competing with 3 rookies for targets. Third, for most of the season he didn't have to compete with any TE's for targets.

Even if he comes back, he's never going to match he stats he put up this season. He simply won't get the targets with a healthy Gronk, Amendola, and 3 rookies with a year under their belt competing for snaps and targets Brady will simply have more options that will now be in the right places at the right time for him to stay Brady's go to guy and get the kind of targets that will allow him to repeat the kind of production he had last season. So why pay him like he's going to get THAT kind of production.

I think the league itself recognizes his true value, and the media and fan estimations for what he will get (6-8MM) are very over valued. I think the Pats will offer him something like a $3MM/yr deal with incentives for a million or two more. If that doesn't get him here, I'd much rather give that $3MM to a guy like Emmanuel Sanders, who might be a better true wide out than JE.

In the open market, I'd be very surprised to see Edelman get more than $4MM/yr in real money when all is said and done. Between the large numbers of good FA WR's this season and the very deep WR class, its going to be a buyer's market for WR's this year. Especially for WR's who have had only 1 year of production and health.

d. Danny Ammendola - I have to laugh at those who are denigrating him so vociferously in multiple threads so far. It's like the same guys who killed Edelman last off-season are simply copying their posts from last year and replacing JE with DA. When are they going to F'ing learn that if a decent NFL slot receiver who remains healthy, in this offense, is going to put up some very good numbers. That's been proven now by Troy Brown, Wes Welker, and Julian Edelman, and if anyone thinks that a healthy Danny Amendola can't do the same, just go back and look at the first Buffalo game. BTW, if DA can't stay healthy, I'd be shocked if Josh Boyce wouldn't be at least adequate as a back up.-

Ultimately, its the nature of the offense, compounded by the quality and accuracy of the QB, that makes being the Pats primary slot receiver a veritable stat machine . Surely you have to be good to put up Welker and Edelman type numbers, and you have to have a particular athletic and mental skill set, but you don't have to be “great”. Its much more about being quick, smart, diligent, and having NFL quality receiver skills. There are a LOT more of those guys in the NFL to choose from than guys like Megatron, and Julio Jones.

In the end I think Edelman will make a more from another team, but not THAT much more. But just like he easily replaced Welker's production, his production would be easily replaced as well. Personally I think he'd ultimately be better off here long term, he'll probably take the short term bump and go elsewhere. The only places I think would be as good fits for him as here, would be Denver if they cut Welker, and Texas if they can find a QB.

e, TE- Now this is an entirely different matter. I am a LOT less worried about Gronk's injury history than most. He really has only had 2, his arm which has completely healed, and his back, which is probably now it its best shape (after the surgery) since he's been here. However he is coming back from an ACL, so there will be some time involved for him to get back to up to full speed even after he starts to play.

The Pats are in need of a least a 2 man infusion at the TE postion. Also while I would never draft a WR in the first round (especially where we pick every year), I wouldn't be surprised to see us pick a TE in one of the first 2 rounds this season I would be equally surprised if we didn't add at least one brand name FA TE as well to go with Hooman and Gronk. There is no doubt in my mind that initial 53 man roster will include 4 TE's

f. I think LaGarrette Blount deserves a big raise, but a RB is a RB. I'd never go higher than $2MM/yr for a guy who is rarely going to be thrown the ball, especially when he is going to be sharing snaps with guys already under contract like Ridely and Vareen. I'd love to keep the RB “band” together, but I don't see it as all that important one way or the other. Like JE, I'd love for him to stay, but if he goes, we will survive

g. I am very worried about Vince Wilfork. Its not that he was injured, its the KIND of injury. Its very hard to come back from an Achilles injury, but its even more difficult when you are 32, 330+ lbs, and playing a position where an explosive first step is critical to your game.

Vince is going to count more than $11MM against the cap this season and has a LOT to prove to justify even half that kind of cap designation. So at this point, I don't think we should even include Vince in the DL equation. The Pats should assume that he isn't coming back and move on from there. If he does beat the odds and come back at a similar playing level, then it will just be gravy. Either way there is no doubt in my mind he will comeback under a new contract, and there will be a time this off season where we will have to endure the news of the Pats releasing him

h. Its my hope that our first pick is going to be a DT. Early on in the process, I've become enamored with R. Hageman at 6'6 and 320 he has the length and explosive first step that can make him the kind of DT that pushes the middle of the pocket back on the QB, and the length to make QB's adjust their arm slots. He also has the right body type and quickness to play 3-4 DE. Reportedly he's excellent against the run, very bright and a hard worker with a lot of upside. Most importantly there's a chance he will be there at #29. There are several DT's that could be there for the Pats, but none have the length and upside I see in Hageman. Here is a link to Walter Camps' early scouting report

WalterFootball.com: 2014 NFL Draft Scouting Report: Ra'Shede Hageman


If we can add a quality top pick at DT plus a healthy Armstead to go along with C Jones and Silliga, and either Kelly or another Vet DT, questions about Vince's return will seem more like a luxury than a necessity. In fact having the 6'5 Kelly teamed up with the 6'6 Hageman could pose some interesting issues for QB's looking to throw over the middle

i. LB's - I can't tell how excited I am about our LB situation for next year, with both Mayo back, looking forward to Collins 2nd year jump, and Hightower's continued maturation.

Collins is going to be the key to this defense, my friends. His skill set and position flexibility will allow the Pats to be much more creative in their coverages and blitzes. We only saw the tip of the iceberg from this kid at the end of the season, and the “tip” looked awfully exciting.

We are going to lose Spikes, but I think Hightower is more than ready to not only replace his presence in early downs, but to add more speed, and athleticism to the position. Mayo and Collins will give us 2 OLB's who can run with just about anyone. However I think we need to keep Fletcher and add even more speed via the draft or FA at the position for depth.

 

[patfanken]

j. .DB's- It all starts in resigning Talib. He likes it here, but there are some issues, mainly his injury status. To that end, I'd offer a trade off. Low end guaranteed money against makable high end incentives that are mostly based on games played and snaps. So it would be something like $4MM/yr guaranteed if he's on the team 3/1, with the ability to add another $5MM if he makes his snap/games incentives. Give him a $9MM signing bonus and spread out over 5 years and I think you have a fair deal. One that protects the Pats from his injury situation, while offering him top dollar if he's playing well and often.

Its been reported that Talib's agents have been working with the Pats on a new deal for the last several days. Usually if the gap is large then its just one meeting to see where everyone is, and we'll see you down the road. The fact they have been meeting for several days show there are areas of common ground the gap isn't that large. For that reason, I think that we could hear about a deal being done within the next 2 weeks

ji.Other CB's - Dennard is a solid #2 who plays a lot bigger than his actual size. Arrington is versatile depth. He's a decent slot CB and in small doses an adequate back up wide guy. Probably a bit overpaid at this point, but a good guy to have on your team. Logan Ryan had a strong rookie year, but needs to improve on his consistency this off season.

I don't know who is in this draft, but I'd love to see more size added to the CB position. I'd love to see the Pats grab some 6'2 guy at the back end of the draft, who is not ready now, but who can be developed over the next few years. The WR's are getting bigger every year and you can't teach length



jii. Now for the elephant in the room – the Safeties. Its easy to look at Seattle's situation an want to emulate it. So I'm sure they will be many calls again to find “our” Kam Chancellor. We may already have him in A Wilson, but I wonder really how much he has left. I also wonder if a stereotypical true SS is what the Pats are really looking for. From what I understand the Pats don't usually flop their safeties, in order to better disguise their coverages.

One thought would be to use Collins as your in the box SS in certain coverages. Let him take on TE's or slot guys running underneath routes. He is probably faster than Wilson at this point. Besides there doesn't seem to be any big time safeties at the top of the draft that will be there when the Pats draft, and anyone the Pats might draft at the bottom of the draft wouldn't likely be better, at this point, than T Wilson, Ebner, or Harmon.

I wouldn't be surprised if, for the first time in several years, the Pats stay pat at the safety position. Face it, while Gregory isn't ideal, but he's a serviceable guy who was having a very good year before he broke his wrist. While it seems that the “other safeties” who are going to play next to McCourty might not be "the solution”, I don't think they are the problem either. In the meantime, its still possible that out of the group of Wilson, Ebner, and Harmon, someone emerges to become an upgrade to Gregory.

Another thing people sometimes forget is that the great defensive backfield that Seattle had last season, didn't just appear overnight. Its been a project and has taken a few years to develop. This secondary is still made up of some very young players, with only Talib, Arrington and Gregory with more than 4 years experience. We need to allow things to develop and not have knee-jerk reactions and constantly call for wholesale changes whenever something negative happens.



3. So in the end what would I do, if BB suddenly asked for my advise at this point of the off season? Here's what I'd tell him

The Draft -

1.Draft the best DT available at 29 (Hopefully R Hageman)

2.In the 2nd round draft the best TE or OL on your board

3.In the 3rd round, reverse #2.

So at the end of the 3rd round I want the Pats to have acquired a DT who can start now, a TE who is good enough to get snaps, and an Olman who can be a good backup now and starter in 2 years.

After that point, its the “best player available” with the eye on taking developmental players with high risk, high upside. I want to see players who emulate the Jamie Collins model. Guys who were hurt their last year in college (Gronk), Small College guys, or good players who played on bad teams. This is still a VERY young team and if we hit on the first 3 guys, we can afford to take chances at the bottom half of the roster.

Free Agency-

1.Sign Talib

2.Sign Fletcher

3.Look closely into signing Mack – Wendell is another one of those “servicable guys”, but one you always are looking to upgrade given the opportunity. As a guy you can probably sign in the $5-6MM range, Mack could be one of those opportunities

4.Keep Kelly (if Healthy) or go after one of Bryant, Melton both of whom will be much less expensive this season. The thought of a Kelly/Hageman DT tandem is growing on me by the minute.

5.Release Wilfork, and if he can play, resign him to a contract that would cut his cap number, at least in half. (BTW- If Wilfork can't play, how much dead money would hit the Pats cap? Anyone know ??)

6.I don't think you can cut Mankins' pay, but a restructure could be in order, especially if it saves enough cap room to sign Mack.

7.Release A Wilson, Sopoaga, Connolly and Kelly if not fully healthy

8.Sign the FA TE S Chandler- a better than average receiving TE with some experience playing wide. Not a horrible blocker

9. I would tell Marcus Cannon that he's going to play exclusively at RG this season and prepare himself to that end. With Volmer returning we would still have Svitek here to play swing T and any number of guys like Josh Kline and draft pick from the 2nd or 3rd round, who would be positioned to develop into back up interior line depth. I think an OL of Solder, Mankins, Mack, Cannon, and Volmer would be the best of BB's era

10. I would work very hard on adding some weight and strength to Michael Buchanon. I'm hoping, if stronger, he can become a viable #3 DE that we so desperately need. He showed some impressive burst off the edge in his limited snaps last year. But clearly he was raw and didn't have the power to play the run.

Jones and Ninko played over 95% of the defensive snaps last year, and were really worn down at the end of the season. We really need to develop some viable back ups there or else we'll be forced to go after someone like M Bennett, or Justin Tuck type FA. It will be much more economical if Buchanon can fill that role this year.

Understandably I reserve the right to completely change my mind on any of these topics as more info comes in on who stays, who goes, and who's available. However I would like to end this with a thought we should all mull over.

We have all been blessed with following a team who since 2001 has had 13 years of winning seasons, 3 superbowls, 5 superhow appearances, and 10 AFCE division DESPITE having to pick at the end of EVERY round during this time. That's 13 years with only ONE shot at top 10 player, in all that time. That is an AMAZING accomplishment, and a credit to a FO that keeps on succeeding even when they make mistakes. We should all keep that in mind when we feel the urge to use our perfect 20-20 hindsight to criticize whine and complain. Quite frankly, its good to be us.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

5.release wilfork, and if he can play, resign him to a contract that would cut his cap number, at least in half. (btw- if wilfork can't play, how much dead money would hit the pats cap? Anyone know ??)

$3,600,000 if Wilfork is not on the 53.

 

[50-yard-line]

Liking the way you guys think.

 

[2000army]

I really enjoy reading your posts. Look forward to more as FA and the Draft get closer

 

[everlong]

a. We all fell in love with the Seattle pass rush during the game, but its interesting to note that during the regular season the Pats generated more sacks than the Seahawks (48 vs 44) In fact our lowly Pats were 5th in the entire league in sacks. Whodathought

b. Clearly the 2 key differences between Seattle's success and our failure vs Denver was the Pats inability to mount even an occasional pass vs Seattle's seemingly constant pressure on Manning and the lack of TO's

IMHO I have to wonder if the difference in those 2 games was less about the talent on the front 7 and more about the GAME PLAN going into it? And there is a second question that needs to be asked as well, and that's how much our defensive game plan forced to change because of the loss of Talib in the first period, and the early injury to Dennard. The need to protect the CB position could have vastly changed how aggressive BB thought we could be.

It's talent, game plan and commitment to a scheme.

Starting with talent is there one healthy Patriot who would start on the Seattle defense? That eliminates Mayo and Talib who you can make a case for. Maybe you can make a case for Chandler Jones but Chris Clemons was far superior to him comparing the SB to the AFCCG.

Game plan Seattle forces you to earn every inch. Bill still wants a bend but don't break. I just don't think that works with the new rules. More often than not something will bail the offense out and continue drives. It's death by a million papercuts. I'm all for the Patriots moving to a pressure scheme and have been for a long time.

Regarding scheme are the Patriots a 4-3 team or a 3-4 team? It's great to be multiple and Seattle is with their fronts but if you look at their personnel the DL are more 4-3 and the LBs more 3-4. To steal a line used in the draft forum discussions on this topic Seattle has better synergy in their philosophy and execution than the Patriots do.

I think Bill was on the cutting edge moving to the 21 century offense but has had a hard time letting go of his trusted 20 century defense. I know I'll get killed by the usual suspects for saying it and no I don't know more than Bill does about football but I'm entitled to my opinion.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Ken,
I dozed off reading your posts because there was no engaging fantasy mention of trading Mallet for high draft picks or of trading that horrible Amendola whose signing has destroyed this franchises hopes for this decade. It's off season and We Will Be Entertained!

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

I've reluctantly come to agree with those who rationally make the case for radical actions with Wilfork, one of my favorite players. No way that cap hit can stand. An emotional decision for this fanboy.

I disagree with standing pat at safety. I was not as negative out the gate on Wilson but he's shown nothing. Not a Gregory basher either but he's barely average at best. Need to do something here. Agree that most late round safety picks may just duplicate the lack of talent we have but I'd go for broke in the 5th or 6th for a SS with size where we should have taken our present guys anyway.

Agree that we re-sign Fletch and say bye to Spikes. We're decent at LB.

Like going for TE by round 2 and signing an FA as you propose.

 

[TonyTucker]

Manning completed 70 percent of his passes because they were all five yards down the field, and he got 300 yards because he threw it 50 times.

 

[Bruins29]

Has anyone seen any Buick or Papa Johns commercials with Manning since the SB? I haven't.

Wonder why?

 

[Kontradiction]

Manning completed 70 percent of his passes because they were all five yards down the field, and he got 300 yards because he threw it 50 times.

Yeah and meanwhile the Pats secondary was sitting in off man or zone even with Talib in. Did a ****** come up with that game plan? And that's spoken by a guy that never usually bashes the coaching, but that was awful. Seattle, on the other hand, got physical, pressed those receivers, threw off the timing, and dominated.

 

[Kontradiction]

Has anyone seen any Buick or Papa Johns commercials with Manning since the SB? I haven't.

Wonder why?

Knock on Papa John's all you want, but it's pretty easily the best of the three big name pizza chains. I'll still take local pizza places all day but, if I have to choose between the big name joints, I'm going with Papa John's.

Go home, Papa John. You are drunk.

 

[goheels22002]

As always, a pleasure to read your prose and think about the observations and suggestions you make.

The only place I stopped to think about what is necessary was in the draft. I am fully on board with using top picks to get the best possible player in the trenches - OL or DL - especially when you pick late like the Patriots have done for the past decade and a half. That's a nice cross to bear.

On the DL, I was increasingly impressed with the development of Chris Jones, Siliga and Vellano. Those guys were nobodies when they showed up, but became a quite competent interior line as the season wore on. It may not be necessary to draft a DL with the 1st pick, if Kelly and Wilfork return. The cavalry also seemed to mesh as a coordinated unit and showed a lot of spit and vinegar, espcially after the debacle of the Jets OT "pushing" call.

I agree about releasing Sopoaga. He wasn't a factor.

As far as drafting, OL is #1 in my book to add some depth and build for the future. #2 is TE to replace the incarcerated d-bag who put his twisted tough-guy gangland fantasies ahead of all that is sacred.

The Patriots have a tremendous approach to using pass catching tight ends, and this just happens to be a very deep TE draft. With the running backs they have, the Patriots need a diverse TE set to keep linebackers from selling out on the run. A top-flight, athletic pass catching TE will improve the running game immensely. And for God's sake, wrap Gronkowski in a bubble and do whatever is needed to keep him healthy. 16 games plus the playoffs of Gronkowski changes everything.

 

[Bruins29]

Knock on Papa John's all you want, but it's pretty easily the best of the three big name pizza chains. I'll still take local pizza places all day but, if I have to choose between the big name joints, I'm going with Papa John's.

Where was I knocking Papa Johns?

 

[Rob0729]

Great stuff Ken. Here are some responses to your points:

- As Belichick always says, sacks are overrated. You odds of a big game changing play is far more likely if the QB actually lets go of the ball under pressure. That is why the Pats are usually high on the number of turnovers created by the defense year after year because he is more interested in QBs throwing under pressure rather than taking a sack.
- Manning's stats in the Super Bowl are a mirage. The Broncos didn't have positive yards or a first down until the second quarter. Their first four drives were a safety, three and out, and back to back INTs. Their next three drives ended with a loss of downs, punt, and a Demariyus Thomas fumble. The Broncos didn't have a drive that went more than 49 yards or lead to points until the last three minutes of the third quarter when the Seahawks were already up 36-0.
- The Pats desperately need a third man in the DE rotation. They overworked Jones and Nink too much. I wouldn't mind seeing a Jason Allen or another veteran pass rush specialist to rotate in a bit. Andre Carter didn't do a good enough of a job and Buchannon fell off after a promising start.
- I am also concerned about Wilfork, but I don't know if I would cut him. I would give him the option of a revised deal of some sort and use cutting him as a final option. I tend to doubt he will be anything more than a situational run stuffer when he comes back. He might be used as Ted Washington was in 2003 as a first and sometimes second down player.
- I also don't think resigning Edelman is a huge priority. Contrary to popular belief, the Pats got along just fine without Welker. It was the TE and outside receiver spots where they were lacking. I don't know if having Welker would have changed that. Edelman would have struggled outside like Collie and Amendola did because smaller guys who are quick, but not fast do when they are thrown out there other than in certain situations. I'd like to have him back, but if he prices himself out of the market I don't see it as a huge problem.

I probably can respond more, but I gotta run.

 

[Kontradiction]

Where was I knocking Papa Johns?

I just assumed you were since most around this forum typically do.

 

[RayClay]

Got to the DT part. I agree on receivers, I've posted as much. I think Hageman will go much higher and he's not considered a hard worker at all according to Mayock, I think (sorry, I think it's posted here somewhere) he definitely called him boom or bust.

Bottom line is Nix and Hageman have great physical upside, but lack in other ways, but the more complete tackles are 285-300 six foot or a smidge higher, so teams (like us) are going to swipe those two way before we pick (IMO). Tuitt has height to fill out too.

Here's a list. I think they skip DT in the first, then maybe Daquan Jones in 2-3 (since our second is almost a third anyway).

NFL Draft - 2014 NFL Draft Prospects - CBSSports.com - NFLDraftScout.com

I don't see 5-10 huge DTs in that list. I'd love either Nix or Hageman, I'd just be shocked if either was available, barring some incident.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

Page one thoughts generated by your first post in the thread (I'll get to the other later, but felt the need to get this while it stayed in my brain). and, it really is more questions than answers, but here goes.

On the perception of defenses, we know/feel that Seattle had a better defense than the Patriots. We also know that sacks don't tell the whole story, but also that PM doesn't get sacked too often and I don't think the Pats had one during the AFCCG (or many hurries/pressures either).

is there a quality to the sacks? In this I mean, when people play Seattle, they expect the defense to get there quickly and probably alter their game plan to have use more plays that get rid of the ball quicker than plays that take longer to develop.

Could it be that the Patriots had less respect in that category so the opposing teams playbook was more wide open? It'd be interesting to see the average number of seconds it took for the Patriots to register their sacks than Seattle. I would guess that Seattle probably got their quicker by half a second or more.

Also, Seattle's D just seemed to be all over the field, they really could swarm to the ball and their secondary always seemed to be looking back forthe ball. Rather than ours who would seem to be trailing and not always being able to turn to defend the ball.

 

[50-yard-line]

Got to the DT part. I agree on receivers, I've posted as much. I think Hageman will go much higher and he's not considered a hard worker at all according to Mayock, I think (sorry, I think it's posted here somewhere) he definitely called him boom or bust.

Bottom line is Nix and Hageman have great physical upside, but lack in other ways, but the more complete tackles are 285-300 six foot or a smidge higher, so teams (like us) are going to swipe those two way before we pick (IMO). Tuitt has height to fill out too.

Here's a list. I think they skip DT in the first, then maybe Daquan Jones in 2-3 (since our second is almost a third anyway).

NFL Draft - 2014 NFL Draft Prospects - CBSSports.com - NFLDraftScout.com

I don't see 5-10 huge DTs in that list. I'd love either Nix or Hageman, I'd just be shocked if either was available, barring some incident.

The mocks are all over the place, other than Clowney in the top five, adn we've got pro-days, interviews and two months+ to go to draft day. Hageman, Tuitt, Dee Ford, Ealy, Donald, Jernigan, Nix are all over the place, mostly depending on where Pryor and Ha Ha land, and any could very well be available at or near 29 (well, probably not Nix or Donald).

There are just too many talented players at various needs for different teams to make any prediction like this. I've seen Hageman mocked as high as 14, or not even in the 1st round. Same with others.

I'd be happy with a #29 of Hageman, or Pryor, or Su'a'Filo, or Shazier, or Ha Ha, or one of the other DL guys I mentioned. There will be quality there.

Thing is, if it's not the last remaining talent in a particular place of need, I wouldn't mind trading down (though I'd rather trade up if there's a special piece to be had).