Highest Ceiling Or Highest Floor?

[mgteich]

I considered 10 top QB's from memory: Brady, Mahomes, Manning, Rodgers, Brees, Favre, Allen, Jackson, Prescott and Russell Wilson. I believe that only Manning was picked in the first.

MVP QUALITY QUARTERBACK
I believe that top 5, MVP type QB's are very rare and could come from anywhere, although the higher you draft the better chance you have to succeed. Since success is rare, I think that it is critical to consider the FLOOR of a top 10 QB pick. A top 10 pick that is judged to have a 50% chance of failing to be a solid top 20 starting QB should cause teams to put a red flag on the player.

HIGH FLOOR
Should I draft a QB that has the highest percentage project floor of a top15 QB? I don't think that probability of any of QB 2-6 being a superstar is very different, although perhaps Penix is lower because of his injury history.

BOTTOM LINE
If whoever is left at 3 is projected to have a much higher percentage of being a superstar, then draft him. If not, just trade down for a QB with high floor, unless of course one QB has a much high floor in which case maybe he is really a #3 pick.
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THE BIG RISK
Trading down for a team who will pick a QB quite possibly will result in 5 QB's being taken in the first 6 picks. We'd probably end up moving up to 8-10 to draft our choice of Penix or Nix. Of course, we would be in the bidding to move up to 4-6 but could lose the fight.

 

[slash83]

Reach for the stars, don’t settle, highest ceiling each and every time.

 

[Lagaffe_07]

ceiling without question

 

[Clonamery]

Refrigerator.

 

[mike_usagisan]

Dunno. Trey Lance had a high ceiling and a low floor. By low, I mean a cellar. That was an idiotic pick and the only thing that saved those guys' jobs is that the rest of that team is stacked.

I vote high ceiling, but the floor has to be competent NFL QB level.

 

[Rob0729]

Dunno. Trey Lance had a high ceiling and a low floor. By low, I mean a cellar. That was an idiotic pick and the only thing that saved those guys' jobs is that the rest of that team is stacked.

I vote high ceiling, but the floor has to be competent NFL QB level.

Lance went from like a second or third round pick at the start of the draft season to a top 3 pick. Even close to the draft when he was already moved up into the first round, many had him as the fifth QB taken. He was a draft jumper. Guys like that tend to be more busty than the guys who were already at the top the draft from the start of the draft. Lance didn't jump to #3 from what he did on the field, it was that draft experts and teams talked themselves into him being a potential special talent with some development. This is why I always hate guys who jump up during the draft process. It is never what they have done on the field.

But you should never draft a guy #3 that their low floor is a guy not even good enough to be the primary back up on a team like Trey Lance.

 

[BTTA]

I considered 10 top QB's from memory: Brady, Mahomes, Manning, Rodgers, Brees, Favre, Allen, Jackson, Prescott and Russell Wilson. I believe that only Manning was picked in the first.

This is such compelling evidence, and continues to routinely get ignored. It is about volume.
Given that most draft picks, at all positions, don't work out, it really speaks to drafting 3 QB's every year, through the entire draft, until one emerges over the course of a few years. Then build around him and go on a playoff run.
But the emotional pull and desire for instant gratification, for everyone involved, wins the day, time after time.

 

[Brotherblues]

This is such compelling evidence, and continues to routinely get ignored. It is about volume.
Given that most draft picks, at all positions, don't work out, it really speaks to drafting 3 QB's every year, through the entire draft, until one emerges over the course of a few years. Then build around him and go on a playoff run.
But the emotional pull and desire for instant gratification, for everyone involved, wins the day, time after time.

You're looking at a factually incorrect statement so it doesn't count as evidence. Half those guys were in fact picked in the first--and the percentage would be much higher if it were a more complete list with clearly defined parameters of greatness needed to be in it.

 

[lancerman]

Ceiling. The ones with the highest ceiling become elites. The ones with the highest floors become Andy Dalton types.

 

[n6249c]

Claims to know the floor for a prospect are as flawed as any other claims to know where he’ll be in two to three years.

Same for ceiling, but ceilings for all are recognized as uncertain. Perversely that probably makes them more reliable.

Don't try to fool around basing the decision on a fictitious floor.

 

[n6249c]

This is such compelling evidence, and continues to routinely get ignored. It is about volume.
Given that most draft picks, at all positions, don't work out, it really speaks to drafting 3 QB's every year, through the entire draft, until one emerges over the course of a few years. Then build around him and go on a playoff run.
But the emotional pull and desire for instant gratification, for everyone involved, wins the day, time after time.

You're looking at a factually incorrect statement so it doesn't count as evidence. Half those guys were in fact picked in the first--and the percentage would be much higher if it were a more complete list with clearly defined parameters of greatness needed to be in it.

Missing the point. Even limiting it to just those picked in the first round failure rate is too high, so the recommended strategy is still valid. Don't pin everything on a single pick solving the problem. Plan to draft multiple QBs until you hit on a winner. Maybe not 3 every year, but at least one every year until one pans out.

Instead of that teams hang their hat on one much ballyhooed high pick. Then they are committed to that choice being their savior for years, and if he is an average QB they’ve consigned themselves to years of mediocrity before they do it again. The strategy of repeatedly drafting QBs is the only way out of that, except for a perfect dice roll on your only shot. The latter is too uncertain, you need more rolls to improve the chances of one being a winner.

 

[BTTA]

You're looking at a factually incorrect statement so it doesn't count as evidence. Half those guys were in fact picked in the first--and the percentage would be much higher if it were a more complete list with clearly defined parameters of greatness needed to be in it.

What I'm considering is the overall hit rate on QB's. Roughly half of first rounders are washouts. About 1 in 5 are long time franchise QB's. In successive rounds, the percentage goes down but there are enough hits to warrant consideration.
Statistically, a team has a far better chance of getting the franchise guy with two middle/lower of the first picks than with a single #3 pick.
I'm also looking at the group think and constructed enthusiasm that leads up to the draft, which escalates every year, and leads to over rating and beer goggles. That's probably the root of the 20% hit rate.

 

[stinkypete]

We went high floor 3 years ago. Turned out to be a pretty low floor.

 

[EMpats]

Mac Jones is a good example of how “high floor or low floor” is meaningless terminology.

Every single prospect in the draft has the exact same floor: Bust who is out of the league in 2 years. Nobody is exempt. Some guys might be, or appear, more polished but the floor is bust for them all. Draft for ceiling for sure.

 

[Water Boy]

Need some parameters around how you project a ceiling IMO. In the case of QBs, if its 100% predicated on physical tools and not some actual demonstrated processing ability, is it even possible project Trey Lance's ceiling as in the Patrick Mahomes neighborhood?

 

[gobesmug]

Lance went from like a second or third round pick at the start of the draft season to a top 3 pick. Even close to the draft when he was already moved up into the first round, many had him as the fifth QB taken. He was a draft jumper. Guys like that tend to be more busty than the guys who were already at the top the draft from the start of the draft. Lance didn't jump to #3 from what he did on the field, it was that draft experts and teams talked themselves into him being a potential special talent with some development. This is why I always hate guys who jump up during the draft process. It is never what they have done on the field.

But you should never draft a guy #3 that their low floor is a guy not even good enough to be the primary back up on a team like Trey Lance.

I don't think that's true in regards to late risers.

Both Aaron Donald and JJ Watt were viewed as 2nd rd talents early in the draft process and lots of peeps on this board had mocks with Donald and Watt being drafted by us in the 2nd, then the 1st, then a slight trade up for them followed by them being drafted at #10 and #11 respectively

 

[gobesmug]

We went high floor 3 years ago. Turned out to be a pretty low floor.

Idk Mac Jones did make a probowl and I would be happy having him as a backup.

That's a pretty good floor IMO for a QB. Obviously you want the QB to better but no realistic floor is solid starter for years for any position.

 

[Kdo5]

Dunno. Trey Lance had a high ceiling and a low floor. By low, I mean a cellar. That was an idiotic pick and the only thing that saved those guys' jobs is that the rest of that team is stacked.

I vote high ceiling, but the floor has to be competent NFL QB level.

Mac Jones had a low ceiling and a high floor.

 

[Vindicate]

High ceiling every time. High floor is very reflective of what a room with a high floor would be like: constricting, everything has to be perfectly placed for you to get around, and your players have to contort themselves to even get in the door.

Normally I'm not a fan of just unloading some half-baked 5th-grade metaphor logic, but it was a bit accurate in this case.

 

[Vindicate]

Dunno. Trey Lance had a high ceiling and a low floor. By low, I mean a cellar. That was an idiotic pick and the only thing that saved those guys' jobs is that the rest of that team is stacked.

I vote high ceiling, but the floor has to be competent NFL QB level.

Exactly. Or, that comment shows: your floor is relative to your ceiling. If your floor is really really low, your ceiling is low, regardless of late game miravles Tim Tebow comes to mind.

Over time, and enough games, your low floor will drag down your ceiling with it.