Building The Patriots Big Board: Corners and Safeties

[midwestpatsfan]

The Big Board is Complete: With this final section-104 players make the list for me. Some tough calls in each section, but I like how the list looks overall. Here is to hoping that at least a few of these names are called when the Patriots are on the clock. Still a lot more content to be put out. I will have the big board series condensed into an easy to read vertical and horizontal big board. I will have my patriots dream draft scenario (don't hold your breath for a Tackle in Round 1) as well as my top 100 overall player rankings. Its been a lot of work but a fun draft season yet again.
Shameless plug time: If you are not following me on twitter, you can find me @midwestpatsfan on there as well.

Building The 2018 Patriots Big Board: Corners and Safeties

 

[bakes781]

Looking at the current players contracts it is clear we will have to draft a CB and probably a safety some where next weekend.

My guy is Carlton Davis but that’s assuming we used our 1st rounders on OL and DL. I do like Jaire and Hughes but I do think the line is priority.

At safety I have a few guys in mind on day 3. Tre flowers and Damon Webb come to mind.

 

[manxman2601]

I haven’t done much work on DBs this year but Jaire would really excite me and Justin Reid and Quenton Meeks would make me very happy and Tremon Smith is one I really like too.

 

[maineman209]

It seems to me that Reid could be the eventual D-Mac replacement. While it might seem a year or two early, the opportunities to snag such a prospect don't come along very often for the Pats at their typical draft slot. For now, with the Pats playing so much 3-safety nickel, a 4-man rotation (sans Jordan Richards) could be very productive.

At corner, Alexander and Oliver seems like prospects who could make significant contributions or even start this season. I'm just not certain that's required. If there's a prospect who's likely to be available in the #63-#95 slot range who can develop into a solid contributor by 2019, that might be the way to go.

 

[manxman2601]

It seems to me that Reid could be the eventual D-Mac replacement. While it might seem a year or two early, the opportunities to snag such a prospect don't come along very often for the Pats at their typical draft slot. For now, with the Pats playing so much 3-safety nickel, a 4-man rotation (sans Jordan Richards) could be very productive.

At corner, Alexander and Oliver seems like prospects who could make significant contributions or even start this season. I'm just not certain that's required. If there's a prospect who's likely to be available in the #63-#95 slot range who can develop into a solid contributor by 2019, that might be the way to go.

That’s my one concern about us drafting Reid - the value. It’s probably going to be at least a couple of years before he becomes a starter and I think there might be better positional value out there. But then I’m also a fan of having good backups who can start if we get a season ending injury so that’s something. One issue there is that Harmon has been very good at not picking up serious injuries.

 

[maineman209]

That’s my one concern about us drafting Reid - the value. It’s probably going to be at least a couple of years before he becomes a starter and I think there might be better positional value out there. But then I’m also a fan of having good backups who can start if we get a season ending injury so that’s something. One issue there is that Harmon has been very good at not picking up serious injuries.

The thing is that D-Mac and Chung are the two oldest players on the defense. Not counting J-Mac and Clayborn, no one else is within 3 years of them. Over the course of the past three seasons, D-Mac and Chung have played more snaps than anyone else on the team, offense or defense. And that's not including the 150 -200 ST-snaps per season that each of them has put in regularly.

In 2017, the four active safeties (including Richards), logged over 2900 D-snaps (Richards played about 10% of those). Even if Reid only contributed 10% this season, he'd likely be a significant upgrade over Richards. However, if he could contribute more (because he's an upgrade), he'd be reducing the wear-and-tear on the two 31-year-olds, perhaps leaving them fresher for a playoff run.

Even Richards played 238 D-snaps as a rookie, so it's not as if Reid is likely to be sitting on the bench.

Anyway, the 3-safety package dominated the nickel last season and accounted for 50% of nickel snaps in 2016. That means that there are ony two CBs on the field most of the time. So, then the argument begins to parallel that for the LB corps - if you're running with only two LBs most of the time ...?

So, do you add a fifth competent CB to Gilmore, J-Mac, Rowe & JJ when you're using only two of them most of the time? Or do you add a fourth competent safety to D-Mac, Chung and Harmon when you're using all three of them most of the time?

Which has more value - especially considering that competent safeties seem much more difficult to come by?

 

[bakes781]

The thing is that D-Mac and Chung are the two oldest players on the defense. Not counting J-Mac and Clayborn, no one else is within 3 years of them. Over the course of the past three seasons, D-Mac and Chung have played more snaps than anyone else on the team, offense or defense. And that's not including the 150 -200 ST-snaps per season that each of them has put in regularly.

In 2017, the four active safeties (including Richards), logged over 2900 D-snaps (Richards played about 10% of those). Even if Reid only contributed 10% this season, he'd likely be a significant upgrade over Richards. However, if he could contribute more (because he's an upgrade), he'd be reducing the wear-and-tear on the two 31-year-olds, perhaps leaving them fresher for a playoff run.

Even Richards played 238 D-snaps as a rookie, so it's not as if Reid is likely to be sitting on the bench.

Anyway, the 3-safety package dominated the nickel last season and accounted for 50% of nickel snaps in 2016. That means that there are ony two CBs on the field most of the time. So, then the argument begins to parallel that for the LB corps - if you're running with only two LBs most of the time ...?

So, do you add a fifth competent CB to Gilmore, J-Mac, Rowe & JJ when you're using only two of them most of the time? Or do you add a fourth competent safety to D-Mac, Chung and Harmon when you're using all three of them most of the time?

Which has more value - especially considering that competent safeties seem much more difficult to come by?

This is partly why I prefer Carlton because I think he could flex out to safety on occasion.

 

[manxman2601]

The thing is that D-Mac and Chung are the two oldest players on the defense. Not counting J-Mac and Clayborn, no one else is within 3 years of them. Over the course of the past three seasons, D-Mac and Chung have played more snaps than anyone else on the team, offense or defense. And that's not including the 150 -200 ST-snaps per season that each of them has put in regularly.

In 2017, the four active safeties (including Richards), logged over 2900 D-snaps (Richards played about 10% of those). Even if Reid only contributed 10% this season, he'd likely be a significant upgrade over Richards. However, if he could contribute more (because he's an upgrade), he'd be reducing the wear-and-tear on the two 31-year-olds, perhaps leaving them fresher for a playoff run.

Even Richards played 238 D-snaps as a rookie, so it's not as if Reid is likely to be sitting on the bench.

Anyway, the 3-safety package dominated the nickel last season and accounted for 50% of nickel snaps in 2016. That means that there are ony two CBs on the field most of the time. So, then the argument begins to parallel that for the LB corps - if you're running with only two LBs most of the time ...?

So, do you add a fifth competent CB to Gilmore, J-Mac, Rowe & JJ when you're using only two of them most of the time? Or do you add a fourth competent safety to D-Mac, Chung and Harmon when you're using all three of them most of the time?

Which has more value - especially considering that competent safeties seem much more difficult to come by?

I’m not sure he’s a great Chung replacement although he can do it but I think he’s a perfect McCourty/Harmon type player. I want talent so I’m fine with it but it might be a couple of years until we see him on the field permanently. But if you forced me too choose between Alexander and Reid, I think Alexander has the better positional value because he could beat out Rowe and J-Mac and be a day one starter or at least a year one starter. Reid will get reps year one, I just question how many. But give me talent on the roster. A draft isn’t just for one year or two.

 

[maineman209]

This is partly why I prefer Carlton because I think he could flex out to safety on occasion.

Both McCourty and Chung have played significant percentages of their snaps at slot corner in the 3-safety nickel the past two seasons. Helps keep an LB from having to cover a TE or an RB.

 

[bakes781]

Both McCourty and Chung have played significant percentages of their snaps at slot corner in the 3-safety nickel the past two seasons. Helps keep an LB from having to cover a TE or an RB.

Yeah and they’re both 30

 

[WaterfallJumper]

I’m not sure he’s a great Chung replacement although he can do it but I think he’s a perfect McCourty/Harmon type player. I want talent so I’m fine with it but it might be a couple of years until we see him on the field permanently. But if you forced me too choose between Alexander and Reid, I think Alexander has the better positional value because he could beat out Rowe and J-Mac and be a day one starter or at least a year one starter. Reid will get reps year one, I just question how many. But give me talent on the roster. A draft isn’t just for one year or two.

Terrell Edmunds?

He's not a complete player yet, but he's tending upward. Big, rangy, physical, fast -- it's just the mental game that needs some work. If we're talking about 10 - 20% of snaps, that could be a good training onramp. Just a thought. I think he could also man up players like Kelvin Benjamin or Devin Funchess as an outside corner.

 

[manxman2601]

Terrell Edmunds?

He's not a complete player yet, but he's tending upward. Big, rangy, physical, fast -- it's just the mental game that needs some work. If we're talking about 10 - 20% of snaps, that could be a good training onramp. Just a thought. I think he could also man up players like Kelvin Benjamin or Devin Funchess as an outside corner.

As you know, I’ve not done anywhere near the work you and others have done so I can’t really comment. I watched a bit yesterday and thought he was pretty good but didn’t get that excited. At this late stage I’m going to stick with the guys I like and happily go into the draft without too much emotional investment and prepared to be surprised (hopefully pleasantly). It’s quite a nice position to be in actually. I’m actually looking forward to watching a draft to see who we pick rather than hoping we pick the people I like (if that makes sense). I still hope we’ll draft a Reid or an Alexander but I’m not emotionally invested in them this time around. I’m watching the draft as a fan, not a draftnik.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

I'm watching with a Bills fan, so I'll get an entirely new experience as well. I hope for his sake it's not a total disaster! I have my guys this year, as always, but I'm open to just about anything. Should be exciting!

 

[Ras-IR Dowling]

I haven’t done much work on DBs this year but Jaire would really excite me and Justin Reid and Quenton Meeks would make me very happy and Tremon Smith is one I really like too.

If he’s there at 23, jaire is our guy. Especially if teams ahead of us take positions like Qb and edge rushers. Imo I like Alexander better than Ward, if he’s there at 23 when wards projected top 10 would be a steal. The packers should take him at 14 but maybe they go Davenport there due to supply and demand and take a lesser corner later on.

 

[BelichickFan]

If he’s there at 23, jaire is our guy.

It's crazy how similar his numbers and Gilmore's are:

Gilmore:
Height: 6004
Weight: 190
40 Yrd Dash: 4.40
20 Yrd Dash: 2.54
10 Yrd Dash: 1.52
225 Lb. Bench Reps: 15
Vertical Jump: 36
Broad Jump: 10'03"
20 Yrd Shuttle: 3.94
3-Cone Drill: 6.61

Alexander:
Height: 5102
Weight: 196
40 Yrd Dash: 4.38
20 Yrd Dash: 2.55
10 Yrd Dash: 1.52
225 Lb. Bench Reps: 14
Vertical Jump: 35
Broad Jump: 10'07"
20 Yrd Shuttle: 3.98
3-Cone Drill: 6.71

Eric Rowe too:
Height: 6006
Weight: 205
40 Yrd Dash: 4.45
20 Yrd Dash: 2.61
10 Yrd Dash: 1.56
225 Lb. Bench Reps: 19
Vertical Jump: 39
Broad Jump: 10'05"
20 Yrd Shuttle: 3.97
3-Cone Drill: 6.70

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I think bb uses pick 43 for a corner. I like both Davis of auburn (wish he were a bit faster) and Oliver of Colorado.

However this is a deep corner draft and bb could wait.

Hughes seems to me like Cyrus Jones part 2. And having seen that movie, I do not desire to rewatch it,

 

[maineman209]

Yeah and they’re both 30

Exactly. And both turning 31 during Camp.

While both may continue to be very good for another couple of years, it might be another 3-4 years before there's a safety class this deep. And it might be a year or more of development before a safety in that class is playing really well.

As with Brady, having a successor to D-Mac on the roster a couple years early isn't a bad plan. Unlike Brady's successor, a good safety is unlikely to be on the sidelines carrying a clipboard most of the time.

 

[zimmy]

Ronnie Harrison is my guy at S, although I'm intrigued by Terrell Edmunds athleticism too. I think both, but esp Harrison, can match up with backs and TEs and can play the slot in the 3 safety package. So there is a role for him on D this year and he can eventually take over from Chung and/or McCourty. Bill has been looking for a S/LB hybrid for a few years and I think Harrison can do it. He wanted Su'a Cravens by all accounts, and there were also rumours about Jaylon Smith.

Harrison is a clever player, he's a leader. And coming from Alabama, he can pick up the Pats system quickly. He can play deep and box safety. Was Alabama's leading tackler. Everything about him screams Patriot to me.

At corner I like both Alexander and Hughes a lot, but I think Hughes is likely to be off the Pats board due to off field concerns. Pats just don't seem to be looking at 1st round corners.

 

[manxman2601]

It's crazy how similar his numbers and Gilmore's are:

Gilmore:
Height: 6004
Weight: 190
40 Yrd Dash: 4.40
20 Yrd Dash: 2.54
10 Yrd Dash: 1.52
225 Lb. Bench Reps: 15
Vertical Jump: 36
Broad Jump: 10'03"
20 Yrd Shuttle: 3.94
3-Cone Drill: 6.61

Alexander:
Height: 5102
Weight: 196
40 Yrd Dash: 4.38
20 Yrd Dash: 2.55
10 Yrd Dash: 1.52
225 Lb. Bench Reps: 14
Vertical Jump: 35
Broad Jump: 10'07"
20 Yrd Shuttle: 3.98
3-Cone Drill: 6.71

Eric Rowe too:
Height: 6006
Weight: 205
40 Yrd Dash: 4.45
20 Yrd Dash: 2.61
10 Yrd Dash: 1.56
225 Lb. Bench Reps: 19
Vertical Jump: 39
Broad Jump: 10'05"
20 Yrd Shuttle: 3.97
3-Cone Drill: 6.70

Jason McCourty too although he’s a little shorter, faster with a poorer shuttle

Height: 5103
Weight: 193
40 Yrd Dash: 4.30
20 Yrd Dash: 2.49
10 Yrd Dash: 1.44
225 Lb. Bench Reps: 15
Vertical Jump: 36 1/2
Broad Jump: 10'05"
20 Yrd Shuttle: 4.25
3-Cone Drill: 6.67

If they do draft Alexander and Reid we’d have the most athletic defensive backfield in the NFL.

 

[sircole]

I'm a big fan of Texas S Deshon Elliot's football IQ/coverage skillls, and would be fine with getting him in the 3rd/4th round.