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Broncos have little to no chance of winning if they can't create turnovers


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Speaking of stats and a winning percentage, I just spotted this on ESPN:

"5-1

Since 2004, playoff teams that enter the postseason at .500 or worse are 5-1 in the wild-card round. Touché, NFC West and AFC West. It seems everyone else has been being good during the regular season for absolutely nothing. Fools!"

Tim Tebow spawns theories to explain his development as quarterback of the Denver Broncos - ESPN

And the last two teams (SD in 2008, Seattle in 10) lost after winning one game in the wildcard round.
 
There is also 22,000 reasons why Denver will go all out to play hard to win

The winning teams players each receive an extra $22K with a win this weekend.

And Tebow's contract says he gets an extra $250k – not that he needs any motivation.
 
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To quote Tebow: "When you believe, unbelievable things can happen."

Hmmm. I think you ought to test this out on a coin toss. Try believing that it will come up heads every single toss and see how that works out. ;)

My point is, I think somehow you have to be actively involved in the outcome of the game in order for belief to be a factor. I think both Tebow and Brady will be believing in themselves come Saturday. What you and I may believe, will not likely have any impact.
 
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When I look at the various Bronco fan forums I see a lot of 'all we have to do is not turn the ball over and we'll win', often followed by 'blitz Brady; the pressure will force him into turnovers'.

I totally understand and agree that each game is its own, and anything can happen. What I do not understand is why (other than wishful fandom perhaps) so many Bronco fans seem to feel that this is the most likely outcome?

The Patriots were one of the best in the league at forcing turnovers while at the same time one of the best in protecting the ball; Denver ranked near the bottom in both categories.

Why the presumption by so many Bronco fans that all that is going to suddenly change Saturday? I know it could happen; I just don't follow the reasoning of why this is such a sure thing.
 
When I look at the various Bronco fan forums I see a lot of 'all we have to do is not turn the ball over and we'll win', often followed by 'blitz Brady; the pressure will force him into turnovers'.

I totally understand and agree that each game is its own, and anything can happen. What I do not understand is why (other than wishful fandom perhaps) so many Bronco fans seem to feel that this is the most likely outcome?

The Patriots were one of the best in the league at forcing turnovers while at the same time one of the best in protecting the ball; Denver ranked near the bottom in both categories.

Why the presumption by so many Bronco fans that all that is going to suddenly change Saturday? I know it could happen; I just don't follow the reasoning of why this is such a sure thing.

If you toss out the last 3 games of the season (convenient, I know), then Denver & Tebow were actually one of the most careful teams in the NFL protecting the ball.

Now, all that changed during the NE game. Tebow had a string of careless moments in 3 consecutive games, but he wasn't as "terrible" as the media has made him out to be.

In general, Fox tries to play a game that minimizes turnovers, eats up the clock, and uses frequent punts on 4th down to trade possessions for field position. This formula has been successful even if it drives fans like me crazy with its utter predictability (run/run/run/punt on 3rd & short or run/run/pass/punt on 3rd and long).
 
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These are all very compelling arguments, and on paper I'll concede all of the major points to you. In a Lincoln-Douglas style debate, you'd go home with the trophy.

But I'm also an irrational fan and I'm just not prepared to say that this once-in-a-lifetime ride is going to end on Saturday night. I can't explain why this is so, there are no stats to back it up, and I'm not religious nor am I waiting for some kind of divine intervention.

But I am going to "believe" and if I do "unbelieve things can happen".

Very well. That's understandable. In that case allow me to be a more irrational rabid football fan and let me respond to you in a more irrational, fanatical, less statiscal way as well.

Here's why the Patriots will still beat the magic. You see I am also a Panthers fan. In 2003, I have watched and followed this EXACT story that Tebow and the Broncos are playing. Cardiac Cats, undrafted quarterback, inspirational story, unknown receiver, no chance team, even John Fox as head coach and Foxball itself, etc, etc, etc. Which is why I also like it and follow it. Even won in OT in the regular season and then in double OT on the road and met the Pats in the Super Bowl. Very euphoric and worth enjoying. Delhomme threw like a champion in the playoffs and set passing records in the Super Bowl.

No one gave them a chance and yet here the Panthers were on the greatest stage of all in the super bowl against the Patriots. Now, some die hard Pats fans may not agree, but the simple fact is, at the end of that 4th quarter....the Cardiac Cats who were the underdogs all season long, found themselves in a position to put the game away as, not just the better team, but really the favorites, doing something the other team was supposed to be better at doing. They would have been seen as the better team, because unlike Brady who threw a pick in the endzone, Delhomme didn't. Panthers passing game was more efficient that game, against all odds. They found themselves in a position with less than a minute left to play, where they were the favorites to win it and the better team as not just a smash-mouth football team, but as a passing team. All they had to do, is pull off a simple kick-off by a very clutch kicker who won a lot of close games and games in OT by 3 points that season. Not even a FG, but a kick-off to push them back, run 40 some seconds off the clock with the #2 defense and send the game in OT. In OT, the Panthers would have certainly been the favorites..considering that was their thing. They had done it all year.

Know what happened? The same thing that happened to the Broncos when they found themselves to be the favorites against the Bills. And then Kansas City. Choked. Panthers kicker muffed the kick out of bounds, gave the Pats the ball nearly at midfield and Pats put it away, in regular time by their own clutch kicker to win it by 3.

Turns out, the pressure to win the game when you are expected to, especially after being an underdog, is greater than when you are not. Turns out exceeding low expectations is a lot easier to do than meeting big ones. Patriots are way past the point of exceeding low expectations but they have also gotten pretty good at winning as favorites. And Tom, he doesn't just have to be stuck playing the role of the good guy or the main attraction.

What I learned, is the Patriots can do both at will and have been doing it ever since. They can switch sides, switch roles, whenever they need to, in order to win the game. They can win as the underdogs as well as the favorites just as easily. They can come back from behind and extend leads. They can win blowouts as well as tight ones, under pressures, against anyone. Tom can be a hero, or he can be the Devil if needed to, and strike down holy Tebow if that's what his role says he needs to do. He can kill baby Jesus if that's what going to take to get that W, and will not shed a tear of sorrow but a tear of joy!

The question is, can Tebow and the Broncos be the bad guys if they ever find themselves to have the upper hand in a game and put down a wounded adversary? Didn't seem like it against Pittsburg when they could run away and pummel ole' Ben in the ground. They were only able to do it to "bad" teams like the Raiders. Can they do it at an even greater level, with everyone watching, if they find themselves in a position to beat down, and put away another team or will they beat themselves like other teams, like the Cardiac Cats, who couldn't play outside their role of underdogs? Can Tebow even play a role of revenge which would come in handy right now, considering revenge is frowned upon where "he comes from"?

Will Fox get his revenge and learn his lesson and teach his team how to be the bad guys if needed? Or will once again the "good guys" lose? Can Tim, not simply be Tebow 3:16, similarly to Tom Terrific, but also play the role of TFT like TFB can? Can the Broncos, as a team, eliminate even the weakest of the link that may crack under pressure? It can come from the most unlikely sources...even Matt Prater himself. Because in the playoffs, that's what it comes down to. I don't know....I have my doubts.

Oth, I know the Patriots can kill the dream. They are those guys that can beat your team no matter how much the entire world BELIEVES! They have done it. I know you don't want the story to end but they are THAT team, that son-of-gun team, that will do just that to make you cry and end it with you left in disbelief. Be afraid. Because you should be.
 
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My fancy little spread calculator based primarily on YPP. Predicts a Pats win 34-19. For the record it predicted a 14-12 win for Pit last week.
 
We won by 18, the last time we met them. Scored 17 points off turnovers. We'd only win by 1 if they secured the ball better.
 
I agree that turnovers will probably be the difference maker, but I don't agree with the argument that Denver can't win unless we win the turnover battle.

The fact is: 4 weeks ago, we were dominating the game against NE until an unfortunate series of turnovers combined with some poor game-time decisions at the end of the 1st half by Fox gave momentum and the lead to New England.

In other words, Denver matches up better in a game with no turnovers; in fact, Tebow and the offense may be resilient enough to even survive 1 turnover, provided it doesn't come too late in the game...like during Tebow Time when we're driving to take a 34-30 lead with 10 seconds remaining.

We? Do you play for the Broncos?
 
We won by 18, the last time we met them. Scored 17 points off turnovers. We'd only win by 1 if they secured the ball better.

And how do you know this? Who's to say that the Pats don't stop them on those two drives and the Pats put together two scoring drives?

The Pat defense did stop 3 of 4 second half drives without a turnover. So its not as if the turnovers were the end all be all.

Its one thing if the offense turns the ball over at the 1 yard line going in for a TD. But its another, when the two forced offensive fumbles came on the Broncos side of the field, with the third being a muffed punt.

Does the defense not get credit for forcing the two fumbles?
 
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Well, it probably *is* time to wrap up for the day and find something just a little bit more productive to do with my time. :) I think I'll go make some Seattle-inspired coffee on the stove.

But I shall return. Still need to get my post count up to 50 so I can start my first thread. It shall be called:

"Predict Denver's First 4 Offensive Plays"

And my answer shall be:

1 - Run MaGahee 3 yards
2 - Run Magahee 4 yards
3 - Run Tebow Read Option 4 yards, 1st down
4 - Run Magahee 5 yards

Pats first 4 plays

1- Brady pass to welker for 40 yards
2-Brady pass to Hernandez for 30 yards
3- Brady pass to Gronkowski for 10 yards TD
4- Broncos fumble kick return
 
:D ten char
 

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