2014 Draft comp pick - projections

[Miguel]

Re: Compensatory Picks Projections Update - a 6th rounder for the Patriots

I'm not saying he definitely doesn't count, merely that I see it as more a 50-50 thing than an absolute given.

Fair enough.

I am not saying that it is an absolute given. I am just projecting that way.

 

[DaBruinz]

Miguel projects the Pats only get a single 6th round pick as well.

Compensatory Picks Projections Update ? a 6th rounder for the Patriots atriots Salary Cap

Looks like Bill will need to do some trade backs if he wants extra picks.

I'm not sure how long the guy stays with the team matters. Unless you've seen it stated somewhere in the rules?

Furthermore, unless the equation has changed, players below a certain amount (essentially players signing vet min contracts) are never part of the Compensatory pick equation. So, at the minimum, I see 2 picks.

 

[DaBruinz]

Also, there are errors in the article posted by the OP.

He talks about the player's salary which is not how the calculations are done. They are done based on the avg. value of the contract or the Sal Cap hit. Whichever is higher.

Also, what he doesn't mention is that the league DOES bump up players depending on how they played. Which is why Indy was given a pick for Wheeler who signed with Oakland in 2012 before moving on to Miami in 2013.

Also, Will Svitek's number was only $844K, not 1M.

I am fairly confident is saying that I don't believe that Atlanta will get Comp picks for Svitek and McCown. Just like I don't believe that Pollack will count against Cincy, Mundy and Murphy won't count against the Giants, Hunter and Jennings won't count against Oakland, and Ohrnberger won't count against San Diego.

 

[Miguel]

Re: Compensatory Picks Projections Update - a 6th rounder for the Patriots

This article 2014 NFL compensatory pick projections

The article list 38 compensatory picks. The CBA says "The Draft shall consist of seven rounds, with each round consisting of the same number of selection choices as there will be Clubs in the NFL the following League Year, plus a maximum number of additional Compensatory Draft Selections equal to the number of Clubs then in the League" which means that the maximum of comp picks is 32.

 

[Miguel]

Furthermore, Will Svitek will not count since he was signed for a Vet Minimum deal and last year's low was around 1.2M..

Svitek was not signed for a vet minimum deal. His deal maxed at $1.5 million.

Svitek made $10,000 per game in which he was active. He also had 500K in incentives. Have no idea if he reached them.

 

[Miguel]

And while Sopoaga was with the Pats for 9 regular season weeks, he only played in 6 games.

In other words, he spent more time with the Patriots than he did with the Eagles.

 

[Miguel]

Also, there are errors in the article posted by the OP.

He talks about the player's salary which is not how the calculations are done. They are done based on the avg. value of the contract or the Sal Cap hit. Whichever is higher.

The article says
6. The round of the pick awarded is primarily determined by the annual value of the contract signed. Signed players cancel out lost players with equal contracts, then lower contracts, before canceling out higher contracts

In looking at his numbers it does appear that he is using the average value of the contract per year.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

In other words, he spent more time with the Patriots than he did with the Eagles.

OTOH, if you go by games played/started, it's 8/7 with Philadelphia, but 6/2 with New England.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Re: Compensatory Picks Projections Update - a 6th rounder for the Patriots

The article list 38 compensatory picks. The CBA says "The Draft shall consist of seven rounds, with each round consisting of the same number of selection choices as there will be Clubs in the NFL the following League Year, plus a maximum number of additional Compensatory Draft Selections equal to the number of Clubs then in the League" which means that the maximum of comp picks is 32.

So it is written

So say we all!

 

[Wheelman]

Re: Compensatory Picks Projections Update - a 6th rounder for the Patriots

What do we get for losing Welker?

 

[OhExaulted1]

First of all I give Craig Turner props for his obvious time and effort into solving the comp pick formula and taking a stab at it. More time and work than I am willing to devote to this interesting exercise. With that being said I did some back research into a year-by-year analysis and have come up with some points of contention to his final tally.

My first point is, 38 overall awarded comp picks seems extraordinarily high given past history. The last time more (or less) than the customary 32 were doled out was in 2003, when 34 were given. This also happened to coincide with a year when supplemental picks were awarded to a new franchise (Houston) for the second year in a row, although 32 were awarded in 2002, Houstons first year putting the league at 32 teams. In 2001 31 were awarded with 31 teams playing in the league.

I can only assume the anomaly had something to do with the addition of the new franchise. The only other time this seems to have happened was when Cleveland was being indoctrinated when 32 were awarded with only 31 teams active in the league in 2000.

My real point is without a new franchise entering the league I would be surprised to see the league deviate from the norm of awarding the same # of comp picks as active existing franchises. I have come across no other evidence to lead me to believe otherwise.

Here are some of AdamJT13's past work-

AdamJT13: Projecting the 2010 Compensatory NFL Draft Picks

Projecting the 2009 Compensatory Picks

For past draft info I simply Wiki'ed the 1999-2013 drafts

Thoughts?

 

[OhExaulted1]

Another point I noticed from AdamJT13's past work was he seemed to put more emphasis on games started and awards as opposed to Turners snap count formula. I saw no mention of snap counts in his past equations but I may not have all the external info Turner has with his somewhat secret formula.

I guess when thinking of this whole secret comp pick formula I conjure up some Tom Clancy cloak-and-dagger black-ops double-agent type of intrigue, like it's calculated in some remote underground laboratory on an uninhabited island.

 

[Deus Irae]

Re: Compensatory Picks Projections Update - a 6th rounder for the Patriots

What do we get for losing Welker?

A decisive loss in the AFCCG

 

[mgteich]

Re: Compensatory Picks Projections Update - a 6th rounder for the Patriots

BSG - So Say We All - YouTube

So it is written

So say we all!

 

[Sciz]

Re: Compensatory Picks Projections Update - a 6th rounder for the Patriots

What do we get for losing Welker?

One really bitter poster.

(Amendola should essentially cancel out Welker.)

 

[manxman2601]

I just want to say the compensation picks are the silliest thing ever. Why should teams be compensated because they can't afford or don't want to pony up the cash to re-sign one of their free agents?

 

[Miguel]

First of all I give Craig Turner props for his obvious time and effort into solving the comp pick formula and taking a stab at it. More time and work than I am willing to devote to this interesting exercise. With that being said I did some back research into a year-by-year analysis and have come up with some points of contention to his final tally.

My first point is, 38 overall awarded comp picks seems extraordinarily high given past history.

I let him know that the CBA says that the maximum number is 32 so I would expect a new and updated projection.

 

[Miguel]

Another point I noticed from AdamJT13's past work was he seemed to put more emphasis on games started and awards as opposed to Turners snap count formula. I saw no mention of snap counts in his past equations but I may not have all the external info Turner has with his somewhat secret formula.

It could be because snap count information was not available when Adam was doing his comp picks projections.

 

[Miguel]

While Craig Turner has updated his projections lowering his number from 38 to 32, he did not change his prediction for the Patriots - one 6th rounder.

 

[mayoclinic]

I just want to say the compensation picks are the silliest thing ever. Why should teams be compensated because they can't afford or don't want to pony up the cash to re-sign one of their free agents?

I agree. Make some dumb contracts, get into a tight cap situation and not be able to sign your own free agents (I'm not referring to the cuts from cap hell, which don't qualify) and you are rewarded with extra picks. :bricks:

Why not just make the draft 8 rounds long and give each team an extra pick?