Evolution to a Power Running Offense

Ivan · Apr 29, 2019

supafly said:
Belichick has had plenty of balanced attacks. It’s just a question of having the right backs and being able to run the ball successfully.

In 2010, with BJGE and Woodhead, they were rushing at a 48 percent clip.

In 2016, it was 47 percent.

In 2004, they ran the ball at a 51 percent clip, actually taking the majority of the offensive snaps.

In 2003, it was about 48-49 percent.

It’s no coincidence that 3 of these teams were SB winners, and the one that wasn’t went 14-2 that year.

It’s great to see a dedication to the RBs, and adding the draft pick gives them even more options. As we all know, there are plenty of ways to attack an opponent, so this should guarantee a balanced offense. Prior to the draft pick, we were all talking about signing a guy like Jeremy Hill again in case Sony Michel went down, so it’s really no surprise that they added a player who is younger, with more talent, less injury history, and a comparable cost which is quite reasonable. The fact that he’s under contract for 4 years is a bonus.

I agree that Belichick wants balance but I think this is qualitatively different, as more often over the past 10 years they ran for balance whereas now it appears that they have constructed the run game not for balance but for outright dominance over defenses that decided to go fast and small. At the end of last season they weren’t running for balance they were running to force teams to try and stop it, which for the most part they couldn’t. And adding Wynn, Cajuste, Froholdt, and Harris is going to make it much tougher on smaller defenses.

moosekill · Apr 29, 2019

It is kind of funny. Tight ends didn't used to be a sexy pick, until the Patriots started drafting them high in the draft, and now they are going high. Running backs used to always go high in the draft and now they aren't as valued.

Just like the 3-4 to 4-3 defenses, the Patriots look at what is undervalued and take advantage of that tendency when creating their team every year.

patman52 · Apr 29, 2019

AndyJohnson said:
I don’t think 5 games is a big enough sample size to indicate a philosophical change.
When you consider the weather, and opponent in the last 2 games and playing from ahead, it’s not that unusual.

I don't think the weather had much to do with it, it has been cold in december and Jan for all 18 years.

I think Bill Sees a proliferation of teams going with a base nickel with LBs getting smaller and the extinction of in the box safeties and he wants to exploit it.

He has a great qb so the passing game will still be there further taxing the defense.

Ring 6 · Apr 29, 2019

patman52 said:
I don't think the weather had much to do with it, it has been cold in december and Jan for all 18 years.

And we run more on December and January.

I think Bill Sees a proliferation of teams going with a base nickel with LBs getting smaller and the extinction of in the box safeties and he wants to exploit it.

He has a great qb so the passing game will still be there further taxing the defense.

I have no doubt that he will exploit advantages in the run game. I have no doubt he wants to be good at running the ball. I am very happy that we were better at it do that while our defense was dominating we could use the run more.
I just don’t see where Bill Belichick thinks that after winning all these years because he put the call in Brady’s hands that he will now diminish Brady’s importance and become a team that lives and dies by the run.

n6249c · Apr 29, 2019

Didn’t Develin line up at tight end a couple of times last season? And I know I saw RBs shift to outside, lining up in place of WRs. I’m expecting we will sometimes see a formation with no traditional TEs but instead loaded with RBs and the FB with one or even two of them morphing into the TE position(s). Not just matchup headaches, make it impossible for the DC to have any idea of what to expect.

scout · Apr 29, 2019

Ivan said:
It showed up last year, but it started when they drafted Shaq Mason. It will still always be determined by opponent, but when they can inflict their will on their opponent they are going to do so.

I agree. The transition started a few years back. I still want Brady as the QB (obviously). But typically he's not throwing the ball like in past years. The departure of Gronk and no TE drafted probably cements running the ball (a TE that can block). We are not replacing any GOAT players. Checkmate.

BlueThunder · Apr 29, 2019

The TE not being drafted doesn't bother me at this moment......BB didn't see the value of any TE left on the board when the Patriot's pick came up and also didn't see the value of trading way up to grab one. BB's evaluation of the TE's he has currently probably is ok, not optimal but not a big hole unless injuries occur.....scheming around that percieved weakness is one solution. Gronk was missed due to injuries and the Patriot's survived.....ASJ, Lacosse and Hollister/Izzo can hold the fort until another signing occurs that BB feels improves the position or the return of Gronk for the run to the playoffs occurs.....Not concerned about the position at this stage of the season.....I'll let that position shake out during TC and Preseason......Fans might be pleasantly surprised.....JMHO

Triumph · Apr 29, 2019

Running the ball and defense still wins championships.

High voltage passing teams like the Chiefs, Steelers, Rams, Chargers and Saints are toothless without the ball. We saw this front row seats vs the Chargers and Chiefs last post season. An 8 minute opening drive vs the Chargers and a 7 minute opening drive vs the Chiefs set their post season doomsday clock in motion. Nothing is more frustrating for a passing team then to have their gunslinger sitting on the bench while the quarter ticks away. Both offenses had a sense of urgency to score quickly placing their defense right back on the field. Both opposing defenses were exhausted in the final minutes of the contest. Mistakes and carelessness occur when youre tired.

DropKickFlutie · Apr 29, 2019

Patsfanin Philly said:
True. I ran the numbers on all the post seasons from 2001-now. This was the first year since the 01,03,04 run that they ran more than they passed in the post season. (* in one of those one and done losses to the Jets- 2011 (?), they ran it more but that was one game) There were individual games that the game plan was to run it ( 2 post season games versus Indy where they ran all over them). Part of the pass first offense was playing from behind where they had to go pass , SB 49, SB 51, 2014 game versus Balt negating the chance to run. By and large, the Pats were a pass first team in the post season but this year it changed...
By and large it looks like BB is trying to create a solid competent powerful running game that will keep defenses honest and keeping them off guard as to whether it is a run, play action or pass.... and the net effect is to hopefully minimize the hits and prolong the career of pick #199....

Fantastic posts !!

.

SHOWTIME15 · Apr 29, 2019

DropKickFlutie said:
Saw this from Bruschi today:
"I think Bill's always gone with trends and where the league is going," he said. "To have a big wide receiver, for possibly shots down the field off play-action; if they decide they still want to be a power-running team, this is a guy that can do it for you."

Think of this scenario: RB Harris running behind OL Denmark Holdftdt +Wynn /Cannon/ ShaqM against all these smaller league LBs and smaller DL, dominating, and also having the play action option to WR Harry if defebnses key too much on the run.

Power running game offense this year to help out our 42 year old QB, and also take advantage of all these smaller LBs and smaller DLs in the NFL ?

.

His pass attempts have dropped a bit since the 2014 season but really no different than it was from 2001 to 2010. From 2011 to 2013 he had well over 600 attempts per season. If anything this is Bill realizing that he needs to go back to the original formula that was so successful in the early dynasty years.

BobDigital · Apr 29, 2019

I'm still not a believer the running game can win consistently. The idea is too make the other team have the patience to prove it. Most don't.

The philosophy imo behind what the patriots are doing is all about either beating the other team with play action or making them take one of their faster guys off the field for a slower guy.

Yes, running efficiently is nice, but all it takes is one hold or one stuffed run to force a team into a passing situation.

Even if the other team goes light and you gain about 5 yards a run; try doing it run after run without a mistake. Pick up the four 3rd and shorts you'll need to sustain your drive, don't have any penalties. It just doesn't work.

There's a reason a team can pass on every play on a drive and score but you almost never see a team run every play on a drive and score (unless they break off a huge run). The margin of error is too low. A really good running game gets maybe 5 yards per play. Even a substandard passing game gets 6+ yards per play. That hugely increases the margin of error allowed within a series of plays. That's all there is to it.

Not to mention the more you run the worse it gets cause your top back gets tired. Your QB can throw 60 times if need be and be okay in a single game.

Points will always come from the air. But with a better defense it allows us to be more of a ground team if we want. And I think we should be.

jefmblrd · Apr 29, 2019

I agree with the thought that BB looks at the NFL trends and then schemes to attack their weaknesses. So if more and more defenses are playing special packages with more DBs and smaller LBs, then it makes sense to attack that with a strong running game. I’m not convinced we’re witnessing a philosophical shift as much as capitalizing on another team’s tendencies which they’ve been doing in various forms for years.

Great thread!

Patsfanin Philly · Apr 29, 2019

AndyJohnson said:
They didn’t run more than they passed in the post season. The numbers posted earlier included the last 2 games and were skewed by the 47 runs vs Buffalo when they couldn’t stop the rim to save their lives.

You're right. I flipped the numbers on the SD game 44 Pass/34 run.
KC was 46 pass, 48 RUN and the Super Bowl was 35 Pass, 32 Run.
My point is that it is closer to 50/50 than in the past and may signal a trend away from pass heavy to a more balanced approach ( provided they dont fall behind by 28-3 or 10 points in the second half of a big game)

SBLIII · Apr 29, 2019

BobDigital said:
I'm still not a believer the running game can win consistently. The idea is too make the other team have the patience to prove it. Most don't.

The philosophy imo behind what the patriots are doing is all about either beating the other team with play action or making them take one of their faster guys off the field for a slower guy.

Yes, running efficiently is nice, but all it takes is one hold or one stuffed run to force a team into a passing situation.

Even if the other team goes light and you gain about 5 yards a run; try doing it run after run without a mistake. Pick up the four 3rd and shorts you'll need to sustain your drive, don't have any penalties. It just doesn't work.

There's a reason a team can pass on every play on a drive and score but you almost never see a team run every play on a drive and score (unless they break off a huge run). The margin of error is too low. A really good running game gets maybe 5 yards per play. Even a substandard passing game gets 6+ yards per play. That hugely increases the margin of error allowed within a series of plays. That's all there is to it.

Not to mention the more you run the worse it gets cause your top back gets tired. Your QB can throw 60 times if need be and be okay in a single game.

Points will always come from the air. But with a better defense it allows us to be more of a ground team if we want. And I think we should be.

I agree that the Patriots want to set up the playaction.

I believe it's a combination of lessen the workload for TB and going against the leagues trend to be effective.

We will never become a 70/30 run type team but if it's 50/50 we shifted our identity already and I think it will allow us to be effective both in the run and pass game.

The 2004 offense was similar and very good.

patman52 · Apr 29, 2019

AndyJohnson said:
And we run more on December and January.

I have no doubt that he will exploit advantages in the run game. I have no doubt he wants to be good at running the ball. I am very happy that we were better at it do that while our defense was dominating we could use the run more.
I just don’t see where Bill Belichick thinks that after winning all these years because he put the call in Brady’s hands that he will now diminish Brady’s importance and become a team that lives and dies by the run.

Brady being Brady allows success in the running game. His importance to the team by not allowing the LB to crowd the LOS and play both run and pass is what stresses the D. Without Brady all you have is a team with good RBs 0

Ring 6 · Apr 29, 2019

Patsfanin Philly said:
You're right. I flipped the numbers on the SD game 44 Pass/34 run.
KC was 46 pass, 48 RUN and the Super Bowl was 35 Pass, 32 Run.
My point is that it is closer to 50/50 than in the past and may signal a trend away from pass heavy to a more balanced approach ( provided they dont fall behind by 28-3 or 10 points in the second half of a big game)

I can accept your last sentence better than “we are becoming a run first team”.
I think there surely can be more opportunities to run the ball with the way defenses are changing but as long as we have the GOAT we live and die on his arm. Working toward balance doesn't change that IMO.
I actually foresee the next evolution in the offense that is happening now being a move to exploit defenses getting smaller by going heavy on WRs to make the D even smaller, spread the field and run. I see that as more likely that a big package to run with power.

Nunchucks · Apr 29, 2019

The Patriots aren't becoming a run first team. They are a team which forces teams to respect the run on every down. There is a difference.

DropKickFlutie · Apr 29, 2019

I think most are generally aligned.

- Patriots are still an adapting / chameleon offense. Still want the option to be able to destroy the Steelers with a fast huddle mostly-passing offense if needed. Still want to run all over teams if needed in other weeks.

The 50/50 balance does seem like a philosophical change however, going back to the 2003 and 2004 days via stifling defense and a ball-control chameleon offense.

It makes sense to not get your 42-year-old QB beat up with too many pass-rush passes unless the game-plan and that opponent warrants it.

SammyBlueCat · Apr 29, 2019

So wait a minute... Since other teams are fielding Cat like quick defenses, our team will try to overpower them??? Does this mean that I will be fired or traded???

DropKickFlutie · Apr 29, 2019

SammyBlueCat said:
So wait a minute... Since other teams are fielding Cat like quick defenses, our team will try to overpower them??? Does this mean that I will be fired or traded???

Lol

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