We're On To Jacksonville

Well one thing Im certian of, the Pats will be the most prepared team on the field. No head games, no predictions, no talking trash about the other team directly or indirectly...just ready for business.

I don’t disregard the Jags at all but I do think the Pats have the talent, preparation and attitude to deal with it.

In real business those type of guys normally win.

I'm betting the Jags to cover the spread but with the Patriots winning. That's how I feel about this game.

I just pray to God the Pats make Bortles look stupid. Make him throw like 40 times!

I had a dream last night..Patriots 34...Jags 14

hope it was a greeting from all my dead relatives...

UptownPatsFan said:

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Bortles is 6'-8, 270lbs with 4.3 speed, great fastball, change-up and slider.

robertweathers said:

I read Rich Hill's hot take on the JAX matchup and hes already pooping his pants b/c Coughlin is over there and basically thinks we are playing the 07 and 11 Giants.

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While the Jags aren't the 07 or 11 Giants, can you not agree that they have a very good front 4 in Campbell, Dareus, Jackson and Ngakoue?

The Jags LBers of Posluzny, Jack, and Smith aren't pushovers. And one could argue that they are better than the LBs the Giants had either year.

The CB tandem of Ramsey and Bouye is one of the best in the league. Colvin is an average CB as their #3.

The questions come at their safeties in Gibson and Church. Gibson may not be healthy. Church is a journeyman.

I've said this is going to be a tough game. Nothing more.

Marrone and Wash will have their hands full planning for Brady and the Patriots, but i would not be surprised if they reviewed the 07 and 11 SBs to see how the Giants D-line beat the Pats O-line with Twists and Stunts by the DEs and some late blitzes.

Now, people will say those teams aren't the same as this one. No they're not. What is the same, though, is that our Interior Linemen have had issue picking them up. Much the way the Pats interior did back in 07 and 11.

Would I expect BB and Scar to make this a focus? Sure. Will it prevent it from working? We'll have to see.

The thing that worries me about the Jags offense is that it reminds me very much of the 2001-2004 Pats offense where Brady's favorite receiver was "the open man". Bortles hit 9 different receivers yesterday. During the regular season, he hit 17 different receivers. 11 of those 17 receivers caught a TD pass.

Now, this is not me saying that Bortles = Brady. It's me saying that the number of different receivers making catches reminds me of that time in Pats history.

Fournette, Yeldon and Ivory can all catch out of the backfield. They may not be a shifty or flashy as White, Lewis and Burkhead, but they can do it, as seen by their 87 receptions for 701 yards on the year. By comparison, the Pats had 118 receptions for 897 yards. So this will be a test for our LBs.

I'm looking forward to an entertaining game.

HailHydra said:

Brady vs Houston (No. 1 Defense 2016)
18/38 for 287 yds 2 TDs 2 INTs - 68.6 Rating. = Win

Brady vs Denver (No. 1 Defense 2015)
27/56 for 310 yds 1 TD 2 INTs - 56.4 Rating [Playoffs] = Loss
23/42 for 280 yds 3 TD 0 INT - 99.3 Rating [Osweiler] = Loss

Brady vs Seattle (No. 1 Defense 2014)
37/50 for 328 yds 4 TD 2 INT - 101.1 Rating = Win

Brady vs Carolina (No. 2 Defense 2013 (Seattle #1))
29/40 for 296 yds 1 TD 1 INT - 91.3 Rating = Loss

I'm looking at the article you were quoting right now and those top defenses included the 2014 Seahawks, 2001 Steelers, 2004 Ravens.

That's two games that are certainly not nearly as relevant as the recent games against the No. 1 defenses, which we see through my statistics. Furthermore, that article was before the Patriots played the 2015 Broncos for the 1st time that year, and they ended up losing two meetings to the No. 1 defense. Brady also played against the No. 1 defense last year against Houston in the playoffs and safe to say Brady wasn't excellent. Since 2014, the Patriots have averaged 26 points against the top defenses, not 31. In the end, all that matters is the W, but that doesn't detract from me saying that Brady hasn't been playing too well against No. 1/2 defenses.

I'm honored that you consider me to be a national talking head, but I think it's safe to say that you should probably research your own claims before calling mine false and wrong.

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I said the top rated defense, and that’s when they played them, not cherry picked games by you, google it, educate yourself.


They are 3-1 when playing the top rated defense in the league. And Brady owns the Baltimore, Pitt, and Houston. Denver is the only consistently good defense in the AFC that has done well against him, so get your facts right and stop wasting time trying to pat yourself on the back for regurgitating Max Kellerman

robertweathers said:

I read Rich Hill's hot take on the JAX matchup and hes already pooping his pants b/c Coughlin is over there and basically thinks we are playing the 07 and 11 Giants.

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Jesus..

UptownPatsFan said:

Patriots open up as 9.5-point favorites over the Jaguars in the AFC Championship Game - Pats Pulpit

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I think our dominant performance over the Titans added 3 points to these odds. But it was perhaps our best team performance this season, so the odds might be closer to a touchdown... in truth.

It's hard to put full trust in a Pat win, given the unpredictability of the Jags, but I'm thinking that we can take advantage of their somewhat out of control style. (or lack of discipline)

Ivan said:

I said the top rated defense, and that’s when they played them, not cherry picked games by you, google it, educate yourself.


They are 3-1 when playing the top rated defense in the league. And Brady owns the Baltimore, Pitt, and Houston. Denver is the only consistently good defense in the AFC that has done well against him, so get your facts right and stop wasting time trying to pat yourself on the back for regurgitating Max Kellerman

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Top rated should strongly correlate with top in yards allowed - if there's a team you see in my stats that you would disagree with, please feel free to share. More so, its more accurate to consider what that defense was ranked over the course of 16 games rather than just looking at the defensive ranks until the Patriots played that team - either way there shouldn't be serious differences. Instead of trying to find some avenue to argue, maybe you could actually see that Brady has been struggling recently against teams who had #1 defenses over the course of the season - 2015 Broncos were a key example as were last year's Texans. I didn't cherry pick any of the games, I went on ESPN, looked at the rankings of the yards allowed per defense, saw when the Patriots played the top teams (if we at all did), and looked at the stats for those games. You asked for how Brady played against #1 defenses, I gave it to you. Don't be sore since the stats don't match up to the 3-1 - which includes 2 wins from 01, 04. Furthermore, Brady struggled against the Ravens, Steelers, and Texans most recently when they did have that #1 defense. I could care less about Brady beating the Texans now when they have one of the league's worst defenses that isn't similar to last year's. I don't get why it's so hard for you to say that Jacksonville will be a game in which the Patriots actually have to struggle, but we'll see when Sunday arrives.

luuked said:

Jesus..

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He must be on the GDT

HailHydra said:

Top rated should strongly correlate with top in yards allowed - if there's a team you see in my stats that you would disagree with, please feel free to share. More so, its more accurate to consider what that defense was ranked over the course of 16 games rather than just looking at the defensive ranks until the Patriots played that team - either way there shouldn't be serious differences. Instead of trying to find some avenue to argue, maybe you could actually see that Brady has been struggling recently against teams who had #1 defenses over the course of the season - 2015 Broncos were a key example as were last year's Texans. I didn't cherry pick any of the games, I went on ESPN, looked at the rankings of the yards allowed per defense, saw when the Patriots played the top teams (if we at all did), and looked at the stats for those games. You asked for how Brady played against #1 defenses, I gave it to you. Don't be sore since the stats don't match up to the 3-1 - which includes 2 wins from 01, 04. Furthermore, Brady struggled against the Ravens, Steelers, and Texans most recently when they did have that #1 defense. I could care less about Brady beating the Texans now when they have one of the league's worst defenses that isn't similar to last year's. I don't get why it's so hard for you to say that Jacksonville will be a game in which the Patriots actually have to struggle, but we'll see when Sunday arrives.

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Just my 2 cents but yards are the worst stat to judge a defense by, no idea why the league does that. The one stat that matters the most is points. Or you could combine them and go with Yards Per Point (YPP) which is a solid stat as well.

DaBruinz said:

While the Jags aren't the 07 or 11 Giants, can you not agree that they have a very good front 4 in Campbell, Dareus, Jackson and Ngakoue?

The Jags LBers of Posluzny, Jack, and Smith aren't pushovers. And one could argue that they are better than the LBs the Giants had either year.

The CB tandem of Ramsey and Bouye is one of the best in the league. Colvin is an average CB as their #3.

The questions come at their safeties in Gibson and Church. Gibson may not be healthy. Church is a journeyman.

I've said this is going to be a tough game. Nothing more.

Marrone and Wash will have their hands full planning for Brady and the Patriots, but i would not be surprised if they reviewed the 07 and 11 SBs to see how the Giants D-line beat the Pats O-line with Twists and Stunts by the DEs and some late blitzes.

Now, people will say those teams aren't the same as this one. No they're not. What is the same, though, is that our Interior Linemen have had issue picking them up. Much the way the Pats interior did back in 07 and 11.

Would I expect BB and Scar to make this a focus? Sure. Will it prevent it from working? We'll have to see.

The thing that worries me about the Jags offense is that it reminds me very much of the 2001-2004 Pats offense where Brady's favorite receiver was "the open man". Bortles hit 9 different receivers yesterday. During the regular season, he hit 17 different receivers. 11 of those 17 receivers caught a TD pass.

Now, this is not me saying that Bortles = Brady. It's me saying that the number of different receivers making catches reminds me of that time in Pats history.

Fournette, Yeldon and Ivory can all catch out of the backfield. They may not be a shifty or flashy as White, Lewis and Burkhead, but they can do it, as seen by their 87 receptions for 701 yards on the year. By comparison, the Pats had 118 receptions for 897 yards. So this will be a test for our LBs.

I'm looking forward to an entertaining game.

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Good post.

They remind me more of SEA D than NYG

Jags front 4 is fast but I think the NEP can run on them.

I think Smith is good in coverage but Poz and Mack can be exposed in isolation.

I'd stay away from their corners.

Yes, Bortles can hit the open man but he it not accurate.

Close game 1st 1/2 and Pats wear down the D by playing no huddle in the 2nd 1/2.

28-13

robertweathers said:

"People who really want to have a good time won't come to PatsFans.com. And we've got entirely too many troublemakers here. Too many 40-year-old adolescents, felons, power drinkers and trustees of modern chemistry."

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Hopefully BB before the game to the boys "I want you to be nice until it's time to not be nice"

HailHydra said:

... I didn't cherry pick any of the games, I went on ESPN, looked at the rankings of the yards allowed per defense, saw when the Patriots played the top teams (if we at all did), and looked at the stats for those games. ....

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So there are still people around who actually believe that yards allowed in isolation mean anything ? What a waste of your time, the people who are reading your block of text and of any one who responded to this.

HailHydra said:

Stats Time!!
2017 Jaguars 2015 Broncos
Total Yardage 286.1 yds --- 283.1 yds
Points / Game 16.8 --- 18.5
First Downs 257 --- 289
Interceptions 22 --- 14
Fumbles 20 --- 16
Sacks 55 --- 52
3rd Down 31.6% --- 35.2%
Opponent Pass Rat. 68.5 --- 78.8

To respond to the Seahawks comment: It's important to note that the Patriots offense (not just Brady) was far from perfect that game. Brady threw 2 picks along with his 4 TDs and the running game failed to get going. I wouldn't consider that to be shredding the Seahawks defense, but getting the job done.

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2015 Broncos Strength of Schedule - .541 (10th)
2017 Jaguars Strength of Schedule - .439 (T-30th)

TommyD4207 said:

2015 Broncos Strength of Schedule - .541 (10th)
2017 Jaguars Strength of Schedule - .439 (T-30th)

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Broncos - 7 letters
Jaguars - 7 letters

See ? Totally comparable.....