2021 NFL Free Agency/Trade News & Discussion: April Edition

[Lansdowne]

Yes because they knew he was gonna roll his ankle in his 2nd game. First game in a Pats jersey he had 10 catches.

Nobody needed to know he was going to roll his ankle to know it was a bad trade when it happened. There were plenty of us on here who weren’t exactly thrilled when it went down.

Link below:

Patriots trade for WR Mohamed Sanu, for a second-round pick

I don’t get burning a second round pick on him. But welcome to the Pats!

www.patsfans.com

Are you suggesting they weren’t fleeced then? That a receiver who, for the first 7 years of his career, had a 16 game average of 53 rec, 619 yds, and 4 TD...that’s worth a 2nd round pick to you? Even though he wasn’t even the third best receiving option on the team that was getting rid of him?



The sad truth is Sanu was facing an uphill battle in justifying that 2nd rounder even before he got hurt. That 10/81/1 TD in performance in Baltimore was the best they got out of him and it didn’t impact the outcome of that game in the least. It was a bad trade when it happened, and it became a worse trade after the fact.

The guy I really wanted them to get at that time was Emmanuel Sanders, a player the team tried to sign back in 2013 (Steelers matched the offer sheet), who proved to be a more productive receiver over his career, and ultimately cost less to acquire (49ers gave up a 3rd and 4th for Sanders and a 5th). I understand that the salary cap was tight and he might not have been an option for that reason, but still. That’s a guy that was more worth a 2nd rounder than Sanu was, and it didn’t even cost that to get him.

Also not that it matters but technically his first game in a Pats jersey he had 2 catches for 23 yards.

Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots - October 27th, 2019 | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Cleveland Browns 13 at New England Patriots 27 on October 27th, 2019 - Full team and player stats and box score

www.pro-football-reference.com

 

[Deus Irae]

That's always made the most sense.

Matt Ryan is a good QB but he is far from his MVP season and doesn't elevate his team to perform better.

You don't finish bad enough to have the #4 pick in the draft with a healthy elite QB. Matt Ryan was healthy, he is not elite.

If the Falcons think one of the QBs at #4 has elite potential, you draft them. Give them a year to learn behind Ryan, then trade Ryan away the following season.

Otherwise they might have to trade multiple first round picks in a couple years to draft a QB.

The problem with the "just trade Ryan next year" approach:


If Lance (or any other of the "5") is available at 4, and Atlanta loves the player, but thinks he's a guaranteed red shirt guy, I would think they'd consider it sensible to draft the kid. On the other hand, drafting a guy who's likely to be ready to start early in year one, but having him sitting for 2 seasons would be a potential locker room problem just waiting to be actualized.

 

[gobesmug]

The problem with the "just trade Ryan next year" approach:

View attachment 31951
If Lance (or any other of the "5") is available at 4, and Atlanta loves the player, but thinks he's a guaranteed red shirt guy, I would think they'd consider it sensible to draft the kid. On the other hand, drafting a guy who's likely to be ready to start early in year one, but having him sitting for 2 seasons would be a potential locker room problem just waiting to be actualized.

I'm not a cap expert.

If they trade him next year I see it clears 8 mil in cap. But doesn't make even more cap space for 2023?

If that's the case 2023 is perfect because they will have a lot of cap space to build a good roster around the QB they take this year and that QB will have 2 years of NFL experience.

 

[Deus Irae]

I'm not a cap expert.

If they trade him next year I see it clears 8 mil in cap. But doesn't make even more cap space for 2023?

If that's the case 2023 is perfect because they will have a lot of cap space to build a good roster around the QB they take this year and that QB will have 2 years of NFL experience.

Yeah, it's much better in 2023

 

[gobesmug]

Yeah, it's much better in 2023

The Chiefs sat on Mahomes for 1 year. The Packers sat on Rodgers for 2 years.

I love the idea of taking a QB for the Falcons, if their guy is at #4.

Obviously I want the Pats to get that pick if possible, if they their guy at that spot.

 

[Sicilian]

The Chiefs sat on Mahomes for 1 year. The Packers sat on Rodgers for 2 years.

I love the idea of taking a QB for the Falcons, if their guy is at #4.

Obviously I want the Pats to get that pick if possible, if they their guy at that spot.

Similar principle, but slightly different scenarios there I think. Alex Smith wasn't signed to as big a deal as Matt Ryan is, so moving on from him wasn't as complicated. Rodgers actually sat for three years (I think), but he wasn't taken until a pick in the 20's. He was also behind a HoF QB who had won a Super Bowl before (be it many years ago), so it was easier to justify keeping him on the bench until that was no longer the case.

Drafting a kid at #4 overall without knowing exactly how you're going to move on from your incumbent is risky. Not impossible, and worth it if you get the right guy, but risky.

 

[captain stone]

If you think you can get your guy, you go get him.

I just don't see how any team, if they're being honest with themselves, can be so confident that ANY FOUR of the other guys will be worthy of sacrificing Multiple high-round draft picks and with them the opportunity to acquire Multiple high-impact players...Every one of them have question marks - big ones, too - that no QB considered worthy of top-5 selection should ever have...History tells us that At Least one of these guys will bust relative to his draft status, if not worse...Future 1st-round picks should be Off The Table for this bunch...Hell I wouldn't take Justin Fields even if he fell all the way to #15....

 

[luuked]

Are you suggesting they weren’t fleeced then?

According to Lombardi they have been trying to sign Sanu three times with the most recent one being before the 2019 season.

They clearly liked what he brought to the table and the game against the Ravens showed off how big his inside contributions could have been before he wrecked his ankle.

The second round pick is the cost of doing business at the trade deadline with a team that had all the leverage while competing with another team for his services. The alternative was doing nothing and just accepting defeat instead of trying to improve.

Sanders was way too big of a risk given him just coming back from a serious injury. But all of that is so easy to say with hindsight. And without hindsight Sanu was clearly the choice with more upside proven by the fact that the 49ers wanted to trade for him as well before settling for Sanders.

But since we are surrounded by people that for whatever moronic reason judge decisions by their outcome and not by trying to understand the process it is a pointless discussion to have.

 

[DaBruinz]

I think if Ryan is a post June 1 cut he is easier to digest from a dead cap perspective but someone check me on that.

If they cut Ryan post June 1st, he'd save then 2M this year.. BUT, he'd count over 40M next season.. I just don't see that happening. A post June 1 cut next year, maybe..

 

[Lansdowne]

According to Lombardi they have been trying to sign Sanu three times with the most recent one being before the 2019 season.

They clearly liked what he brought to the table and the game against the Ravens showed off how big his inside contributions could have been before he wrecked his ankle.

The second round pick is the cost of doing business at the trade deadline with a team that had all the leverage while competing with another team for his services. The alternative was doing nothing and just accepting defeat instead of trying to improve.

Sanders was way too big of a risk given him just coming back from a serious injury. But all of that is so easy to say with hindsight. And without hindsight Sanu was clearly the choice with more upside proven by the fact that the 49ers wanted to trade for him as well before settling for Sanders.

But since we are surrounded by people that for whatever moronic reason judge decisions by their outcome and not by trying to understand the process it is a pointless discussion to have.

I understood then, and I understand now, why Belichick made the trade for Sanu. The second round pick was an overpay due to his desperation to get a receiver (yes, Belichick liked him and sought after him three times before, but it was still a trade made out of desperation, both things can be true) since whatever depth they had at the position crumbled (I addressed this in a recent post if you care to read it). Didn’t surprise me that he coveted the guy since college, given the obvious link to Rutgers.

Doesn’t change that I didn’t like the trade when it happened, not because Sanu wasn’t a fit for this offense or anything, but because they gave up too much for him, and that was assuming full health. If you don’t believe me and think I’m only saying that because it backfired, that’s your prerogative. In hindsight, they would’ve been better off keeping the 2nd rounder. Fair or not, the trade did not yield the desired results. That’s indisputable.

Hey, I loved the N’Keal Harry pick when it happened, and it’s not looking so great now, so take my opinion for what it’s worth. If you loved the Sanu trade (and at minimum you appeared to be on board with it, so I credit you for consistency), more power to you. I don’t share that sentiment and I never did, so I’ll criticize it if I want. Doesn’t make me any less of a Pats fan than anyone else here.

 

[RobertWeathers]

If they cut Ryan post June 1st, he'd save then 2M this year.. BUT, he'd count over 40M next season.. I just don't see that happening. A post June 1 cut next year, maybe..

My bad. I meant a 2022 post June 1 cut.

 

[DaBruinz]

My bad. I meant a 2022 post June 1 cut.

No worries.. it's why I mentioned next year..

 

[50-yard-line]

That's always made the most sense.

Matt Ryan is a good QB but he is far from his MVP season and doesn't elevate his team to perform better.

You don't finish bad enough to have the #4 pick in the draft with a healthy elite QB. Matt Ryan was healthy, he is not elite.

If the Falcons think one of the QBs at #4 has elite potential, you draft them. Give them a year to learn behind Ryan, then trade Ryan away the following season.

Otherwise they might have to trade multiple first round picks in a couple years to draft a QB.

Texans had the same record. Deshaun Watson wasn't hurt, was he?

Yet people here want to trade everything available to get him.

 

[mgteich]

I just don't see how any team, if they're being honest with themselves, can be so confident that ANY FOUR of the other guys will be worthy of sacrificing Multiple high-round draft picks and with them the opportunity to acquire Multiple high-impact players...Every one of them have question marks - big ones, too - that no QB considered worthy of top-5 selection should ever have...History tells us that At Least one of these guys will bust relative to his draft status, if not worse...Future 1st-round picks should be Off The Table for this bunch...Hell I wouldn't take Justin Fields even if he fell all the way to #15....

So, if the patriots pursue your strategy, they will never draft their future quarterback, unless they get very, very (once in 20 years) lucky. The alternative is paying $25M a year for a veteran quarterback, if we can get one.

 

[Lansdowne]

I just don't see how any team, if they're being honest with themselves, can be so confident that ANY FOUR of the other guys will be worthy of sacrificing Multiple high-round draft picks and with them the opportunity to acquire Multiple high-impact players...Every one of them have question marks - big ones, too - that no QB considered worthy of top-5 selection should ever have...History tells us that At Least one of these guys will bust relative to his draft status, if not worse...Future 1st-round picks should be Off The Table for this bunch...Hell I wouldn't take Justin Fields even if he fell all the way to #15....

I definitely get your concern. The draft is an imperfect science. QB is a position where there can only be one starter, and there’s quite a bit of luck involved in finding a true franchise guy. Right guy, right time. Who knows where Brady would’ve been if Belichick didn’t send **** Rehbein to Michigan to scout him, or if Bobby Grier didn’t insist on taking Brady over Tim Rattay, and that was only after letting him slide all the way down to pick 199. Or if Belichick didn’t feel like keeping 4 QBs on his roster his first year. Or if Mo Lewis didn’t nearly kill Bledsoe in Week 2 the following year. Didn’t invest a high pick to get who ultimately became the GOAT, but there were many things that could’ve gone wrong along the way that would’ve prevented history as we know it.

Still, Brady is the exception, not the rule. The guy he took the job from was our former 1st overall pick (and we’ve been blessed not to be so bad as to pick that high ever since). I made a post a while back on the current NFL starting QBs and what round they were drafted, and it’s looking like after this year’s draft concludes, we may be looking at a minimum of 22 starters out of 32 who were 1st round picks. Sometimes you have to pay if you want to play.

There’s no obvious solution at QB in free agency as it stands, and the asking price for many established veteran QBs can be silly expensive. If the team aims to remain competitive, then it’s not going to be in a position to take a premium QB prospect without trading up. The alternative is playing the waiting game, possibly suffering a losing season of double digit losses that then gets you to the top of the draft, but then heads may roll after a season like that.

I would actually love to have Fields (or Lance, or even Mac Jones if he slides to 15). But I get the fear of mortgaging heavy draft capital to take the gamble. By the same token, it’s just as much a gamble not to try to aim for the stars. We only have so many years left before Belichick retires, and after that, it’ll be two GOATs we’re without. I want them to try to find that QB now, and I’m not convinced he’s on the roster yet.

 

[Wordsmyth]

Will the Pats kick the tires on Teddy B? I've always liked TB's game.

(I'm not referring to the TB in TB, BTW.)

 

[Mack Herron]

Will the Pats kick the tires on Teddy B? I've always liked TB's game.

(I'm not referring to the TB in TB, BTW.)

He would be an upgrade over Cam IMO, but who knows if Bill agrees. If signed, he would start game 1 next year even if they also draft a qb. My uncertainty is his ceiling.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I think it would be very smart of Atlanta’s GM, fontenot to take lance at number 4. They can use the rest of their draft picks to load up on defense and groom lance for two years in order to get continuity when it comes time to move on from Ryan.

 

[Pats1971]

He would be an upgrade over Cam IMO, but who knows if Bill agrees. If signed, he would start game 1 next year even if they also draft a qb. My uncertainty is his ceiling.

I think we have seen his ceiling. Thats the thing, the question is, are we biding our time until we can draft a young guy we like with Cam, or are they actually expecting Cam to take us to the promise land. I hope its the first because I cannot see it. I am not sure adding another Jag QB is going to help all that much, so I would rather they be patient for that next guy rather than take someone to tide them over with 9 win seasons.

 

[crownontherocks]