Your Indicators for a Patriot Win ?

[BelichickFan]

I'll say if we can do the following we win -

- No more than 1 Patriot turnover.
- No more than 3 sacks against the Patriots.
- No more than 120 yards from Tomlinson.

Now, obviously someone could say "the Patriots score more than the Chargers". Duh. What is your shortest, realistic list that if you knew they happened you'd feel like we'll win ?

My list above may not happen but it's realistic and if it does I think the points totals, on both sides, will take care of themselves.

 

[SeanBruschi54]

Usually im a major stat guy and i can get into the numbers about these things but my indicator that feels right?

My gut.

I honestly believe in my gut they will find a way to win. My head says otherwise but my gut tells me they can.

So hooray for Sean's gut!

 

[SeanBruschi54]

BUt if you want to go by how BF did it then:

-Patriots must have at least 3TD's
-LT must be held to under 100 yards rushing
-Merriman cannot have more than 1 sack

 

[Sean Pa Patriot]

I think we could win, but this is a game that scares me.. One thing Rodney is a guy we have not recovered from when it comes to injury.. beating the Jets at home is one thing, the Chargers at Qualcom/ The murph is the other.

 

[Sean Pa Patriot]

Keys to the game

Pats score first
Pats dont get down ,by more than 10
No Turnovers and create turnovers

Those are my 3 keys..

 

[SeanBruschi54]

I think we could win, but this is a game that scares me.. One thing Rodney is a guy we have not recovered from when it comes to injury.. beating the Jets at home is one thing, the Chargers at Qualcom/ The murph is the other.

What do you mean we havent recovered from losing Rodney? Our secondary is less powerful and theres no true hitters out there but the backfield is quicker without him.

This teams going to have to learn to live without Rodney. He's not going to be here forever.

 

[DropKick]

Rivers must look like that goaltender at the beginning of the movie Slapshot.


If BB can confuse this guy, the Charges D will be on the field an awful lot.

 

[Sean Pa Patriot]

I will say this, I dont expect the Pats to stop LT entirely .. I do expect him to get over 100 yrds, just getting it here and there and keep him somewhat contain..

 

[Michigan Dave]

I honestly think that we are the better team, and if we come out and play our game, we should win. Obviously, I think we need to avoid uncharacteristic mistakes, and control the tempo of the game. We also need to continue to attack when we establish a lead. San Diego is a team that plays well from behind.

Specifically, I am looking for us to establish a ground game, and work the middle of the field through the air on offense. Defensively we need to be physical, and jam their backs and receivers off of the line. I think if we play in a short zone and contain the advantage they have with their backs and TE against our backers by giving help, we'll be able to frustrate Rivers, and get SD to play our game.

This game is all about control. Our team is not intimidated by their stadium, their fans, or their 14-2 record.

 

[BelichickFan]

So hooray for Sean's gut!

I love your gut, baby

 

[Sean Pa Patriot]

What do you mean we havent recovered from losing Rodney? Our secondary is less powerful and theres no true hitters out there but the backfield is quicker without him.

This teams going to have to learn to live without Rodney. He's not going to be here forever.

I have to remember the game last yr , the first one with out rodney , how we had trouble with the run and Gates.. It was the first time I felt this is one Inj we cant live with out..

 

[BelichickFan]

The reasons for my list are :

1) If we don't turn it over we're scoring or punting. As I say all game every game "it's OK to punt". If a team has to start inside their 35 against our defense consistently I'm feeling OK about things. And chances are that we won't get caught starting inside our 10 all day if we're punting; no guarantee on this but the odds are good.

2) Sacks are not always directly propotional to pressure but if we limit Brady to 3 sacks there's a reasonable chance that he's getting time to throw a decent amount of the time. The Chargers are quick enough to turn pressure into sacks so I'm willing to say 3 sacks or less = reasonable protection.

3) 120 yards or less for Tomlinson basically equates to no more than one run of 35 yards or more. As long as we limit his long runs to the teens, we're doing OK (assuming not ALL his runs are in the teens ). And I think, even with Gates, we can slow their passing game enough. Not stop - slow.

Anyway, I know holes can be shot in all the above but, again, if they all happen I think the rest will work out.

 

[BelichickFan]

I have to remember the game last yr , the first one with out rodney , how we had trouble with the run and Gates.. It was the first time I felt this is one Inj we cant live with out..

You mean the one with the Chad and Monty show at ILB and Starks at CB ?

 

[Mooch]

(1) +2 or greater in the turnover battle

(2) Time of Possession greater than 35:00.

(3) SD has more FGs than TDs.

 

[Michael]

I feel confident if they score more points than SD they'll win. Seriously I'd say they need to watch the penalties. As we saw in the second playoff game last year the Pats don't need to do anything wrong to draw a flag. So certainly if you do something wrong you ARE going to get called. So they need to watch their emotions. No personal fouls like we saw in the last reg. season game. Seymour no late hits. Bruschi no piling on . Matt no false starts. And Samuel well they're going to flag you anyway.

 

[Patriot Artist]

My key: the Hurry Up offense w/ Brady at the helm.

It will work for us, however the toll on the players is tough.

 

[Sean Pa Patriot]

You mean the one with the Chad and Monty show at ILB and Starks at CB ?

Well that is true, I did not give it that much thought.. But still a cause for concern..

 

[PATSNUTme]

Let's say both team play well and execute well.

I think that the Patriots need a +2 turnover game to win. And, no more than 1 turnover from the Patriots, zero would be better. When two good team meet and play well the ultimate factor in the game is usually turnovers.

This is coming from one of the top 5 Homers (and proud of it) on this board.

 

[BelichickFan]

My key: the Hurry Up offense w/ Brady at the helm.

Brady makes a heck of a good Point Guard in that spread offense, doesn't he ?

 

[Na_polian]

"the Patriots score more than the Chargers". Duh.