Will the Pats have to run the table for the #2 seed?

[HEY BRO! WHAT UP?]

If the Pats keep losing to AFC teams, they will be a #4 seed at best. These loses to AFC teams need to stop!

 

[crypto]

Okay, here's the deal.

If the Patriots beat the Jets by fourteen points or more, they will win the rest of their matches, the one against New Orleans included, and finish 13–3 with the second seed.

Mark my words.

 

[QB12]

Okay, here's the deal.

If the Patriots beat the Jets by fourteen points or more, they will win the rest of their matches, the one against New Orleans included, and finish 13–3 with the second seed.

Mark my words.

Your prediction sounds plausible, but can you elaborate why the result is keyed to the margin of victory? I think I understand, but please elaborate.

QB12

 

[crypto]

It's just a litmus test to make sure this team is as kick-ass as they looked against the Colts. If they are, and if their coaches wise up just a LITTLE more (they're so close; they just need to adjust they're fourth quarter strategy), they are as far as I'm concerned the single best team in the league. The Saints are the only ones who stand a prayer against them, and frankly the Saints are looking shakier by the week, so a convincing rout of the Jets has me sold as the Pats coming out of that match on top.

No other team stands a prayer.

This reminds me very much of their 2004 season. They did fairly well the first half of the season, lost a puzzler to the top-ranked Steelers, and then came back with a vengeance and ran the tables to a piece-of-cake Super Bowl victory, slaughtering the Steelers in an AFCCG rematch along the way. They have the talent. I've been arguing it all season and last night proved it. If they cut the crap with the bend-but-don't-break defense—they've shown they don't need it—they will simply manhandle the remainder of this season.

 

[QB12]

I like and share your confidence crypto.

QB12

 

[HEY BRO! WHAT UP?]

Okay, here's the deal.

If the Patriots beat the Jets by fourteen points or more, they will win the rest of their matches, the one against New Orleans included, and finish 13–3 with the second seed.

Mark my words.

I really hope their offense learns from this, really pisses them off and regains that killer instinct they had in '07 regular season.

 

[crypto]

Actually, I'm more interested in seeing their defense clamp down. With a healthy line, they have all the ingredients. Their pass rush isn't great, but to be honest, I don't think they need one.

 

[rabthepat]

No No No No No No No No No No No No

No Chance Pats run the table...this team is lame...they are 6-3 by beating weak teams...

 

[jmt57]

The Patriots won't win any of their remaining games if they play badly.

Same statement could be said about every other team in every sport out there.

Well, that is unless two teams playing each other both play badly.

Most posters are assuming that the Patriots have a fairly easy road to the playoffs. I don't agree with them.

You're internet must be different from mine, because I'm reading a whole lot more "the season is over" than "it's only one game" comments today.

They have 4 remaining road games: Saints, Dolphins, Bills, and Houston. With the exception of the Bills, all these teams are capable of beating the Patriots.

More stating of the obvious, with a slant on the negative. "Any given Sunday". The Patriots could be 9-0, and any team on their schedule is still capable of beating them. Likewise, the Patriots are capable of beating any one of those teams too. The Pats will be favored, and rightfully so, in three of those four games.

Their remaining home games are: Jets, Carolina, Jaguars. Easier schedule than the road games but not pushovers.

More stating of the obvious, thank you for pointing that out. To me those games look no different than before the season started, no different than it was in September, no different than it was a week ago.

The Patriots need to beat the Jet on Sunday to have a chance of sweeping their home schedule.

Wow, that line's a classic.
Yes Einstein; if a team loses a game, that does mean they don't sweep.

I expect them to lose two of the road games.

Not exactly a surprise considering you predicted the Pats would lose to the Bucs.

8-0 at home and 3-5 on the road gives them 11-5 and a probable playoff spot.

Given that you've predicted the Pats to lose nearly every week this season, I now have renewed confidence that they will end up better than 11-5.

One home loss and they finish 10-6 like John Clayton predicted and probably no playoff spot unless both the Jets and Dolphins fall apart.

Is Clayton your idol or something?

Actually, considering the way the Jets and Miami are playing right now and their current records, I would say there's a very good chance neither one finishes above 9-7.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

So do I. I bought two tickets for Sunday's game to see the Patriots

get revenge. I hope the Patriots don't have a 6 point lead with two

minutes to go and 4th down and 2 on their 30 yard line.

YOU are bad! Very, very bad. But, I really can't disagree with you.

 

[Bonzo]

8-0 at home and 3-5 on the road gives them 11-5 and a probable
playoff spot. One home loss and they finish 10-6 like John Clayton
predicted and probably no playoff spot unless both the Jets and
Dolphins fall apart.

Completely untrue. 10-6 still likely gets us the division.

For Dolphins to win:
Remaining schedule: @CAR, @BUF, NE, @JAC, @TEN, HOU, PIT
(a) 7-0 against not a single "gimme"; OR
(b) 6-1, including necessary victory against the Pats, PLUS other possible tie-breaking conditions.

For Jets to win:
Remaining schedule: @NE, CAR, @BUF, @TB, ATL, @IND, CIN
(a) 7-0 (good luck!);
(b) 6-1, including victory against the Pats;
(c) 6-1, with sole loss coming against Pats but getting other tie-breaker

For Bills to win:
Remaining schedule: @JAC, MIA, NYJ, @KC, NE, @ATL, IND
(a) 7-0 and a lot of help

The short of it is that, to overtake a 10-6 Pats team, one of these teams would need a dramatic departure from their sub-.500 ways and really bring it against some stout competition.

 

[Bonzo]

Using this site as a guide, it looks like if we run the table, we will most likely have the second seed. 6-1 nets us a lower chance at that spot with a 5-2 rules us basically out of that #2 seed

New England Patriots Playoff Chances - Sports Club Stats

Cool link. That site calculates the probability of a team's seeding using two approaches: a "50-50" method that assumes any team has an equal chance of winning a game as their opponent, and a "weighted" method which considers current record and home field advantage.

Some observations from the Weighted odds:

1. 7-0 the rest of the way gives us a great shake at the 2nd bye seed but probably not the 1st.

2. 6-1 is still probably not enough for #2, but it should get us that important #3 (so as to delay facing Indy until conference championship)

3. 5-2 (to match our unfortunate record of 11-5 from last season) nearly guarantees us the division.

4. 4-3 and there remains an 84% chance that we're on top of the division (as I justified in my post above).

5. Even 3-4 gives us a 50-50 shot at a playoff berth.

6. 91.9% overall probability of making playoffs.

Interestingly, the 50-50 method puts the odds of a making the postseason at greater than 70% with even a paltry final record of 9-7.

I'd contend that 6-3 through nine games is not a doomsday scenario.

 

[patsinthesnow]

Completely untrue. 10-6 still likely gets us the division.

For Dolphins to win:
Remaining schedule: @CAR, @BUF, NE, @JAC, @TEN, HOU, PIT
(a) 7-0 against not a single "gimme"; OR
(b) 6-1, including necessary victory against the Pats, PLUS other possible tie-breaking conditions.

For Jets to win:
Remaining schedule: @NE, CAR, @BUF, @TB, ATL, @IND, CIN
(a) 7-0 (good luck!);
(b) 6-1, including victory against the Pats;
(c) 6-1, with sole loss coming against Pats but getting other tie-breaker

For Bills to win:
Remaining schedule: @JAC, MIA, NYJ, @KC, NE, @ATL, IND
(a) 7-0 and a lot of help

The short of it is that, to overtake a 10-6 Pats team, one of these teams would need a dramatic departure from their sub-.500 ways and really bring it against some stout competition.

Wow, thanks for this post. We could got 4-3 the rest of the way and still probably win the division.

I hope we can alter the playoff picture the last week of the season. If we can control the Chargers eventually facing Indy in the opening round, you could see a one n done.

 

[ivanvamp]

Yeah, I was just talking to someone about that. #3 is very attractive, we'd get a first round home game then @ Cincy. And if the Colts were to lose to a team like Pittsburgh or SD, very possible, we'd then host the AFCCG. #3 is really quite critical the more I think about it.

I agree. This would be a very solid scenario, though #2 would be even better.

I happen to think that this Patriots team could very well run the table. I think they pound the crap out of the Jets this week, then go to New Orleans still on a mission, and beat them. Then, the only games that are somewhat worrisome are Miami in Miami and then at Houston, who could be fighting for their playoff lives. So, actually, 3 more losses is quite possible (haha), but I think they have a real shot at running the table.

But first things first...beat the Jets.

 

[Wolfpack]

I ll be happy winning division and no facing Chargers or Steelers in WC

This was actually the thing I took away from yesterday's debacle as potentially the one silver lining. San Diego doesn't scare me, but I have to admit that I don't want to play Pittsburgh and Indianapolis in the playoffs. Let the 2 of them play each other and hopefully we can play the beat-up winner of that game.

After yesterday, I think we've increased the chances the Pittsburgh will indeed have to play Indy. Obviously there is still a lot of football left to play, but yesterday was a step in that direction.

 

[ausbacker]

I am as about confident as you can be when it comes to a contest, but after the capitulations, all second half to the Jets, Broncos and now the Colts, all beating ourselves.. I can't see us running the table. I think wins against the Jets, Panthers, Bills and Jaguars are probable with the Dolphins and Texans coin tosses and a loss to the Saints.

Therefore I see us going somewhere in the vicinity of 4-3 or 6-1 leaving the Pats between 10-6 and 12-4.

 

[crypto]

I am as about confident as you can be when it comes to a contest, but after the capitulations, all second half to the Jets, Broncos and now the Colts, all beating ourselves.. I can't see us running the table. I think wins against the Jets, Panthers, Bills and Jaguars are probable with the Dolphins and Texans coin tosses and a loss to the Saints.

Therefore I see us going somewhere in the vicinity of 4-3 or 6-1 leaving the Pats between 10-6 and 12-4.

No, 7–0, babeh.

Really, though, 4–3 is not giving this team nearly enough credit.

 

[ausbacker]

No, 7–0, babeh.

Really, though, 4–3 is not giving this team nearly enough credit.

I'm being realistic. 3 capitulations in which the Patriots have beaten themselves after being in strong positions to not only beat, but annihilate the opposition and we haven't has lead to my re-evaluation of this current team.

We're a finesse team now and that won't get it done.